Mmxx

[A Duke]

Hi,
So what is this year of grace 2020 going to be remembered for, drought, bush fires, hail storm, eruptions, Covid 19, the great bumf famine or other rationing? Of course the exiting bit is that is only the half of it, the other half is still to come.
Hope we survive
Regards

[rrich]

Oh goodness! Hopefully the year 2020 is the year Trump was not re-elected. But you never know about the religious zealots.

[BobL]

Hi,
So what is this year of grace 2020 going to be remembered for, drought, bush fires, hail storm, eruptions, Covid 19, the great bumf famine or other rationing? Of course the exiting bit is that is only the half of it, the other half is still to come.

I'd say one of the most likely things is maybe the year we decided to take on China?

OTOH it might be the year to "forget"?

This is because it's true. I'm not saying that everyones like this but it won't take long for lotsa folks to stop half decent hygiene, waste water, build more houses in dense bushland, fail to clean up fuel loads around properties, burn more vehicle fuel etc

[AlexS]

Sadly, I think your las paragraph may come true, Bob.

[Mobyturns]

This is because it's true. I'm not saying that everyones like this but it won't take long for lotsa folks to stop half decent hygiene, waste water, build more houses in dense bushland, fail to clean up fuel loads around properties, burn more vehicle fuel etc

So true, one only has to look at the property price rebound (before COVID) in suburbs in Brisbane that flooded. Its human nature to see advantage or opportunity and to underestimate the risk / probability / outcome profile. Same will happen with cruises, a few bargain cruises will re-establish the market again.

If you are lucky enough to enter and exit a market between lows there is opportunity, however if you suffer that 1 in 100 year event it could totally wipe out your families fortunes and perhaps change the course of your children's future.

I saw a meme about students following history for the years 2018,2019,2021,2022 etc when Young Johhny pipes up, "Miss you left out 2020!" the teacher replies "No Johnny, we never talk about that year!"

[A Duke]

Hi,
I do not know what we have done to live in such interesting times.
Regards

[Fekit]

To be brutally honest, 2020 was the year it was demonstrated that I cannot count on any level of government during a "crisis". And thankfully Cov19 isn't a real one for us at the moment. The only crisis we do have at the moment is the manic level of insanity that has been generated by the fear and weakness in our leadership.

I don't know what the Australian numbers are but have a look at these;

UK - Cov19 attributed deaths (LOL) 37,048.
England & Wales - Lockdown attributed deaths Approximately 13,000.

And I believe you are correct, we've only seen half of it. Prior to March, Australia had a household debt to GDP of approximately 120%, or alternatively, household debt to income of about 200%. The end of the free money and pause on mortgage repayments is on the horizon..........

[poundy]

I don't know what the Australian numbers are but have a look at these;

UK - Cov19 attributed deaths (LOL) 37,048.
England & Wales - Lockdown attributed deaths Approximately 13,000.

I don't believe those numbers - well ok, I don't believe the second one. Please quote your source.

[Fekit]

Sorry, forgot to link that.

Almost 13,000 unexplained deaths in England and Wales since coronavirus crisis began, figures show

[poundy]

Sorry, forgot to link that.

Almost 13,000 unexplained deaths in England and Wales since coronavirus crisis began, figures show

paywalled so can't read the full article. But it says the info was compiled by them, so I don't hold high hopes of seeing much more about the situation from their own data - could have biases because of the desire to produce this type of report.

But some of the conclusions they mention are certainly cause for concern - yes, more deaths were not "explained". I'd expect though that this is more because the officials haven't confirmed what the cause of death was (as in, there wasn't a medical professional who assessed that after death - there was too much other work going on) and so it'll either be a consequence of their existing ailment, or a new ailment that they did not seek treatment for, or some other event.

Your choice of words - "lockdown attributed" - does not reflect what I can read of that article. These were not attributed to the lockdown - they did happen during lockdown, but nothing about lockdown explicitly caused them. It's not that for example those deaths were caused by domestic violence where the lockdown meant the people involved couldn't remove themselves from the situation; it's more likely that those deaths were going to happen but haven't been reviewed in depth to provide a factual, high-confidence answer to why the person died.

[Lappa]

For some time it has been reported that deaths in nursing homes, even if Covid19 related, have not been included in the official Covid19 death toll.
Maybe those are the ones they are referring to?

[Bohdan]

Covid deaths reported in England were only those that occured in an NHS hospital. Those that occured in a nursing or old folks home did not count. Approx 50% of all covid deaths were not in an NHS hospital and were not counted (to make the figures look better).

[poundy]

Yeah I feel comfortable that they're not "official" but are COVID19 related, not "lockdown related"

[Fekit]

Apologies Hugh, I wasn't intending this to hijack your thread.

The deaths in nursing homes were added to the count at the end of April. The count as show in my post includes nursing home deaths, that increase can be seen below.

Capture.PNG

U.K. Coronavirus Map and Case Count - The New York Times

The deaths that are lockdown related are summarrised below;

Around 3,000 of the extra deaths per week are not attributed to Covid-19, with experts warning that lack of access to routine NHS care, and patients avoiding going to hospital in emergencies, is fueling a rising death toll.


Cancer Research UK has warned that the crisis could mean an extra 18,000 deaths from cancer this year.


Prof Thomas said: "The initial pandemic response to lockdown as a device for gaining time to build defences and make sure our health service was not overwhelmed was a reasonable response. But our society cannot remain under siege forever and we need to find a way of returning towards normality.


"I think we can more or less justify a lockdown of two months based on the ill effects to the economy, but three months is too long,” he told The Sunday Express.

Capture b.PNG

Total deaths from coronavirus and lockdown 'could prove higher than Second World War'

[rrich]

Today, the official death count in the US went over 100,000. But we have a tendency to report as accurately as possible.

Oh, as a By The Way note:
Our grand and glorious leader played golf over the holiday weekend. Score, (a.k.a. True score) was rumored to be in the low 110s.