Market Meltdown

[Metal Head]

2pc wiped off value of average super fund today

More than $55 billion was wiped off the Australian share market today, cutting another 2 per cent off the value of the average super fund. On top of that the Treasurer has warned that mortgage rates look less likely to fall. Markets around the world were thrown into chaos when US politicians voted down a $US700 billion ($840 billion) proposal to rescue US banks and shore up the world's largest economy. Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said while the failure of the proposal had been "a significant setback", Congress was likely to pass a rescue plan in some form, because our economic future depends on it. "Certainly we need to see that to avoid a very sharp deterioration in economic conditions" he told news.com.au.


Are Our Jobs Safe?

Mr Hanlan said jobs growth was half of what it was a year ago, and the slowing Australian economy will push the unemployment rate higher. "The big surprise has been that unemployment hasn't really moved noticeably higher, but we think that's unlikely to continue" he said. He said jobs growth would slow "to around per cent or so" from around 3 per cent where it was a year ago. "That would mean unemployment could rise from its very low levels currently to maybe up to around 5 per cent" he said.


Petrol Pain To Ease?

Crude oil prices plunged 10 per cent overnight after the bill was rejected, sparking hopes of relief at the local petrol pump. The price of crude oil dropped below $US100 a barrel from record high levels above $US147 in July. "The key though is oil prices are no longer where they were," he said. He said because the Australian dollar had fallen, the flow-on to consumers had been "relatively modest". "The Aussie dollar is providing a cushion to the fact that commodity prices have been weakening, so we haven't really seen as large a fall in petrol prices here as we've seen in the fall in global crude," he said. Mr Hanlan expected oil to rebound if the bill is passed.


Not So Super

SuperRatings' managing director Jeff Bresnahan said today's slump has pushed the average Australian's super losses to around "11 or 12 per cent" for the past 12 months. "Having said that, what we've seen is a significant increase in earnings between 2003 and 2007, and we're simply handing back a part of that increase through this market cycle," he said. "The average Australian is still up around 40 per cent in the last five years on their superannuation balance," he said. Mr Bresnahan said because around 55-60 per cent of Australians' super was generally sitting in the share market, there was going to be volatility from year to year. Although everyone has an option to change their exposure to the share market within their super fund, "if people are taking a long-term strategy, moving to cash right now is going to crystallise the losses". "If people move to cash, then how are they going to know when to move back into the market?" He said there were "very few people" who would need to jump straight to cash right now - most affected are those in or around retirement.


Riding Out The Share Market Pain

Independent financial planner Bill Raffle of Bennelong Private Wealth said Investors with a long term strategy and plan won’t sell out when the market falls. "The knee-jerk reaction when things go down is to move them into cash and when markets move up we can move them into equities” he said. "But that assumes you can time the market, and in my view it’s not possible to accurately time the market". "If you move into cash now, you might well miss a part of the recovery. That’s not to say things will get better or worse, I don’t know, I don’t have a crystal ball". Selling now means you may crystallise losses, meaning you lose all potential to recover part of the loss, he said. He said market volatility is the price people pay for earning returns higher than just saving their cash. "You can’t have one without the other. We’re now experiencing the negative part of the cycle". "The essential thing is that if you ride with your emotions you will typically end up selling low and buying high". "If you’ve got a long term approach I don’t think that necessarily changes whether you have a bull or bear market".

Deputy chief executive of the Financial Planning Association, Deen Sanders, said investors are feeling uncertain but shouldn't panic. “People are uncertain about the impact the US and global situation will have on them," Mr Sanders. "Consumers have already felt the early impacts in their superannuation returns and mortgages but these latest twists reinforce that they should be seeking advice rather than hitting the panic button". “Everyone is nervous and a lot of people are confused by what it all means and our members are telling us their clients are calling but importantly they’re not panicking about the recent events," said Mr Saunders. “It’s obvious that things are going to get more uncertain for consumers over the next few months and the clear message for everyone is that in these volatile and uncertain times people need good advice". Mr Sanders said markets are "volatile and the global climate is in new terriority" but Australia's regulations and market compare favourably to international events.


Home Loans

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan warned today that the failure of the bailout bid was likely to put pressure on borrowing costs for banks. If banks' borrowing costs remain high they are unlikely to want to cut home loan rates even if the Reserve Bank lowers official interest rates when it meets next Tuesday. The RBA cut rates last month - the first time official interest rates were lowered in seven years. The central bank is tipped to cut rates again next week, but so far banks have refused to say whether those cuts will flow through to home loans. But all hope is not lost. Warren O’Rourke of Mortgage Choice said there was some speculation that the RBA might push through an aggressive 50 percentage point cut, in an effort to encourage banks to pass on some relief to borrowers. Mr O'Rourke said if this happened, then banks might opt to pass on some of the official cut.


How Safe Are Our Banks?

Australian banks are much more heavily regulated than their US counterparts, and have also not indulged in such free-and-easy lending. This means they are in a much stronger position to weather a financial crisis. "The mortgage scene in Australia is vastly different than what has existed in the US" said Mortgage Choice’s Mr O’Rourke. "From that point of view there’s no real reason for people to panic". Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has also been talking up the stability of Australia’s banking systems. "The Government has spoken this morning with the Australian regulators, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority, we are advised that the developments overnight in the United States do not affect the fundamental stability of the Australian banking system,” Mr Rudd said. However, in the unlikely event an Australian bank does go under, there’s no guarantee you’ll get your money out. The Government has proposed legislation to guarantee bank deposits of up to $20,000.


"Pass Rescue Package Or Else"

Westpac's Mr Hanlan said a bailout package was likely to be passed to ensure banks continued to operate. "If the package fails to pass, then we'll see this continuing lack of confidence pervading the markets, we'll see a lack of willingness from banks to lend to each other," Mr Hanlan said. "(It) will make it very difficult for the credit creation process which we normally take for just a give-in, that banks lend to each other, banks lend to households, banks lend to businesses, and that's how the economy functions," he said. "If that all seizes up, you'll see an ongoing downward spiral in activity. "It's not going to come to that ... that sort of reality means that the package will be passed".

[joe greiner]

Try to stay calm, if you can. We hope the US Congress will gain some common sense, or get some adult supervision. Reforms are long overdue.

About 50 years ago, I would be hanged for revealing this, but remember that "money" is no more, and no less, than a convenient fiction as a substitute for a barter economy. Its only connection to reality is by agreement among the participants in commerce.

Rough times ahead? Sure. Hang on tight.

Joe

[m2c1Iw]

Joe,
Most of the reporting over here shows the man in the street is opposed to the bail out as it's seen as supporting the fat cats at the expense of the battlers (tax payers).
Seems to be a loud call to allow some of the financial institutions to fall as they are responsible for the bad risk judgements.
The problems is the ripple affect around the world, everyone stills looks to Wall Street for the lead. Mind you the global finance market is a mystery to me and I sometimes wonder if it is to the so called experts as well.

Mike

[joe greiner]

Same sentiments here, Mike, with respect to long overdue reforms. Might even need some jail time to reinforce the "learning experience." In fact, a few have done just that in the past few years.

Joe

[Greg Q]

I've been watching the shills on CNBC and Bloomberg the last couple of days and despairing that I didn't act sooner on my pessimism. Too many Congressmen parsing their words in front of microphones over the weekend to not suspect a bill failure.

Nobody is managing perceptions well over there. The fact that this is happening in the late stages of a Presidential race that has been going on since...since...forever has not helped. No where is there a trusted voice of leadership. By now if Bush says something most people just eye roll and tune out.

Like Joe says, there needs to be some heavily punitive claw back of bonuses and pay from those creeps "for the encouragment of the others".

I am wondering lately why the hell I try act with prudence when it seems that the new model is that someone else should pay for my bad decisions. Bah!

[Gingermick]

That's the new market model, privatise the profits and socialise the losses

[m2c1Iw]

That's the new market model, privatise the profits and socialise the losses

The next round of yelping is going to be from investors with margin loans. With now a market down over 30% the banks will be making calls on the investors that thought the equity they had was safe.

I was watching a US commentator suggest that even with a bail out the markets would decline steadily and that a severe US recession is unavoidable causing global problems because of the shear size of the US economy over 25% of global. He went on to say that US consumption is unsustainable and is the cause of global inflation and until the foreign debt is brought under control there will continue to be market turmoil.
Hmm.....happy chappy, bit like some of the local doomsayers that are predicting a US style real estate collapse here in Oz.

Mike

[damian]

That's the new market model, privatise the profits and socialise the losses

Nothing new about that.

Mike, quite right.

The US is overdue by about a year for a recession. The more expedient measures they take to put it off the deeper it will be. None of this is new, just the media try to spin it as different. A couple of hundred banks, most small, will go bankrupt. Businesses that rely on credit will go also. Housing will decline, people in debt will go broke, spending will slow, more businesses will go, unemployment will rise.

I get bored reading about how "those naughty banks/executives/regulators/politicians must be made to suffer". They won't. Never have, never will. Or the other one "I have no sympathy of those who over spent and overborrowed". It will still be you who lose your job or pay taxes to cover the "measures".

The other half of the US problem is their already inflated government debt. It leaves the government little room to move in this tightening credit cycle. The US admin was fiscally irresponsible, beit Bush and co, the democrats or republicans. Doesn't matter who did what the point is they are streched financially.

It is worth noting that the increase in house prices since 98 is twice the US rate in aus. The demographic of our home owners is different to the US so I'm not making any predictions, but I wouldn't be surprised at a 40% average fall across australia in house prices. They have already fallen about 10%+, with up to 40% falls in isolated instances. The Uk is already seeing tremendous falls.

Just remember that media are not there to educate you, they exist to sell advertising revenue, which means saying and doing whatever it takes to keep your attention.

[Pheonix]

I had money in a supposed 'safe' Allocated pension with a bank, since I retired,it showed negative 2% growth over first two years,I withdrew the lot and placed it in second mortgage with a firm of solictors, hasn't looked back getting 9% on my money ever since.Got enough out of it to finace another property in Pakenham about to be built which will be tenanted.
We pay for all the banks mistakes.
I never use them ever since my money is now with Credit Unions.

Just my2c worth!!

[Waldo]

Home Loans

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan warned today that the failure of the bailout bid was likely to put pressure on borrowing costs for banks. If banks' borrowing costs remain high they are unlikely to want to cut home loan rates even if the Reserve Bank lowers official interest rates when it meets next Tuesday...


How Safe Are Our Banks?

This really me off with our Treasurer he has no tact and idea of how to do his job, he needs to take a lead from Costello about how to make media statements. All he does with this form of talk is give open slather to the banks do as they please.

But then he was the marketing advisor to Goss in his election campaign which was full of mud slinging and lies, so it's little wonder he's yet learnt about how to do his day job.

[Gingermick]

Yeah, through the economic reforms of the hawke/keating govmint and unprecedented demand for resources, Mr costello (who started as Treasurer as rates were already falling) then presided over ten rises so he didn't ever have to say much about banks passing on rate cuts

[Waldo]

They rose, but they never rose to the 19% of the keaing era.

[Phil Spencer]

Been through this before, in 87 I lost about $60K, life goes on, my attitude is to leave my money in the market where it is and it will eventually come back.

I think I am going to apply for a job as a Wall Street wanker (ops meant banker) I reckon I could stuff up the world economy for a lot less money.

[Steve Fryar]

Is this thread starting to get political or am drinking more beer than I should.We will suffer because of their stupidity but I think our economy is pretty good,and I don't vote Labour.If you can't get a job in SA,you're either dead or can't give a sh*t.The latter is more likely.I reckon the rest of the world may be taking a bit of notice of the land of OZ.Even though it is mining lead economy,most people don't appreciate what we are sitting on.It's huge.I'm kinda sorry I'm only in oil and gas.

[Gra]

This really me off with our Treasurer he has no tact and idea of how to do his job, he needs to take a lead from Costello about how to make media statements. All he does with this form of talk is give open slather to the banks do as they please

Disclaimer first. Some of you may know, I actually work for a bank. (Please dont hold that against me) I have some experience, but I have no direct knowledge of this so this is pure speculation and supposition (That sound legal enough)

The problem is the banks can do as they please.... The treasurer has NO control over what they do. He can jump up and down all he likes, they are public companies answerable only to their shareholders. They only control the Govt/RBA has is over the banks prudential holding (How much the bank has in the bank in case of an run, etc) They handed over control of the banks rates years ago.

For Australia, we wont be directly effected. We dont have the same lending practices as the US, especially the "Sub-Prome" loans, we did those in the 80's and got burned. The only exposure the banks will have is either from buying that debt in derivative products, and they have already announced their combined exposure is about AUD400M, or from the repurcusions of what happens in the US. See below.

The US on the other hand looks scary. First things AIG wont go bankrupt it will be sorted one way or the other. It has fallen to the too big to fall issue. If it goes down watch the dominos fall. They will default on they parties, their parties will defaut and it fans out and in the end they all deaspear up their own ...... The problem with the scanario is the australian market will be effected as some of the second or third or tenth level failures will be to our banks, with the obvious concequences.

What I can see happening

• AIG being bailed out
• A number of smaller banks and lending orgs being "consolidated" sometimes in a merger sometimes in a marriage of conveniance sometimes in an arranged marriage
• The US will go into a ression, the length will depend on the policies of the incoming govt
• A couple of sacrificial lambs will be sent to jail
• Some very rich people will get much richer

For Australia the outcome will depend on China

• If it can find a market for all the @#$% it is currently selling to the US,we will be sheltered,
• if not, I can see china slowing itsrequirements for raw materials with a negative impact on our economy
• Though I can also see maybe the Aus sharemarket removing its US centric blinkers and not dropping everytime the US sneezes (Wishful thinking on my behalf there more likely) and maybe comming to its sences and working out that the current falls are not backed by any fundimental, and are just fear driven.
• Some job losses at the banks(hopefully not mine), to recover them not growing their profit as much as they did last year (They will still make a profit, and probably more than last year, just I think not quite as bigger jump)

Secondary disclaimer : If anybody acts upon this as investment advise they are morons. do your own research and come to your own conclusions these are just the ravings of a poor, sleep deprived banker, trying to get through end of year. With no real knowledge and a big mouth (Maybe I should go for a job on wall street, Nah not a big enough "Cant say it here but rhymes with banker").....