CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[FenceFurniture]

Today's spreadsheet attached.

Points to note:

• USA will go to the top of the deaths list some time today - 500 more will send them past Italy
• Australia is at the bottom of the 3 day gain in cases ignoring China & S.Korea (been at it for much longer), and ignoring 7 new entrants with no previous data
• Australia's death rate is approaching 1% (expected, takes a few weeks to die), but still almost at the bottom of the list
• Australia has slipped down from 22 to 26 in total # cases
• 6 European countries all have death rates over 10% (Italy, UK, Belgium, Netherlands, France, Spain)
• Europe has 68% of the world's deaths, USA 18%, leaving the rest of the world accounting for 14%
• Europe has 48% of the world's cases, USA 29%, rest of the world 23%
• American countries have very high 3 day gains in deaths (Canada, Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, USA)
• 51 countries, accounting for 71% of world pop, have 2000+ cases

[NeilS]

There will not be much that is new in the following article for those who have been following this thread, but posted here as it puts pay to any assertion that any country wasn't forewarned about the need to prepare for a respiratory pandemic.

Jennifer Nuzzo: “We’re Definitely Not Overreacting” to COVID-19

Nuzzo was the lead author on the report released three months before the first reported Covid-19 case. At just 75 pages long (without the long reference list), it's not a difficult read and should have been understood and acted upon by any government that thought it applied to them.

Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic

Evidently the US has thought preparation for such pandemics is not such a priority for them, closing its 'global pandemic response' unit of the National Security Committee in May 2018 and disbandoning the companion unit in the Department of Homeland Security the moth before. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced a such, but according to this fact check some staff were reassigned.

The Global Health Security Index gave Australia a rating of 75.5 for preparedness in 2019, 4th out of 195 countries. But, some of the countries with even higher ratings have not done so well (so far). As Nuzzo explains,

"the overarching finding of our study was that no country is fully prepared. This has not been misinterpreted. But, if you just look at the scores, the United States comes out on top. Clearly, just given current experiences, there is no evidence that the United States is the most prepared. We are way behind other countries on a number of fronts. And even though the president held up our index at a press conference and said, “Look, you know, Johns Hopkins found that the U.S. is prepared,” that’s actually not what we found. What we found was that no country is fully prepared, and many countries have deficit in their health systems. That is very much playing out across the globe right now."

The warning about the availability of a vaccine when found and fully tested in the volumes required for broad community immunization is sobering.

"I think vaccines are not going to be a realistic solution for years. The 12-to-18 month timeline that you’ve likely heard assumes that the science works in our favor. But it will take years to get the quantities that we need. I don’t see vaccines being a viable solution for a long time."

[clear out]

Not if you have a cigarette lighter handy.

That reminds me of a mate whose bench was in line of sight of the foreman and would occasionally light one.
The look on the boss’s face brought nearly as big a laugh as the incendiary display.
H.

[FenceFurniture]

c1978 my father didn't believe me when I said they were flammable.

It was evening.
"Righto Dad, you operate the light switch, and I'll operate the lighter".

BOOM! Seriously....best one ever....spectacular display in a darkened room.



Dad dissolved to the floor with laughter and surprise.

[woodPixel]

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth

[BobL]

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu (hence those dying from ordinary flu) has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.

Apparently the numbers of home burglaries are down but commercial burglaries are up.
DV is up about 5% but general alcohol fuelled violence is significantly down.

[Bushmiller]

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.

That may be,

BUT.

What would have happened if we had done a Trump?

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

We would now have 50,000 cases (not 6000) and 1800 deaths (not 56). I have done an extremely rough pro rata on america having ten times our population ( I appreciate it may be closer to twelve times). That would not make the comparative figures look so good.Interestingly there has been an increased incidence of speeding infringements and I am not certain, but I think the road deaths are not quite so good over on this side of the desert.

Sure. I'm not saying we don't keep doing what we are doing but trying to find some real positives in purely the Australian Context ie to show it's not all one way.
Some economist may even be able to put a financial cost on what the lives saved cost.

As regards conventional flu there could be at least two reasons for and improvement in figures. Firstly the self isolation is working equally well fo all types of flu and alternatively the Covid-19 is getting them first, although with 56 deaths Australia wide I am doubtful of the second scenario.

I agree, the numbers of deaths so far in AUS (with all respect to those that have died) are more or less in the statistical noise.
I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.

[GraemeCook]

Has anyone done the sums?

In WA in terms of motor vehicles deaths we are down 25% over the same time last year.
Murder rates are also down.
The numbers of people with the ordinary flu ... has dropped by 2/3rds.
ETC

I really am beginning to suspect that the COVID-19 lockdowns in AUSTRALIA have overall reduced the numbers of deaths in the community rather than increased it.
....

WOW, that is one hell of an insight, Bob.

To try to put that in perspective, the most recent data that I can find for relevant Australia-wide death rates are for 2017-18 and are:

• 375 Homicide,
• 3,046 Suicide, and
• 1,145 Road fatalities.
• 4,566 Total of Above, (equivalent to 87.8 per week).

So far, there have been 6,238 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 54 diagnosed deaths - ALL those deaths have occured in the last six weeks.

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.

4510.0 - Recorded Crime - Victims, Australia, 2018
3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2018
Road Trauma Australia—Annual Summaries | Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers | Australian Government Department of Health

[FenceFurniture]

I think basic hand hygiene may be even more important than we think. Perhaps this is a lesson we can take post COVID-19 - ie carry/use sanitiser, make available more public places to wash hands, revise/improve ventilation in cruise ships, restaurants, shopping centres.

I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella.

[FenceFurniture]

I concur that it is highly feasible that the overall death rate has been reduced by COVID-19.

Well...yeah...but it's not much of a way for a country to live. My point is that a statement like that is grist to the mill for you-know-who to take out of context.

[Tccp123]

This little number chugging ever upward makes the whole "100k dead" thing seem all rather trivial....

World Population Clock: Daily Births - Worldometer

We are a plague:

World Population Clock: growth

Thank you WoodPixel. Hopefully you will be more successful at having people listen to you than I ever was...

[NeilS]

Some good news. The current Coronavirus doesn't seem to mutating in any significant way that would change its characteristics. The H1N1 outbreak in 1918 did, with disastrous consequences.

Researchers Look At How The Coronavirus Is Mutating — And Possible Consequences : Goats and Soda : NPR

Of potential concern are recent reports out of South Korea that some cases that had tested negative to the virus after recovery have since tested positive again. There are a number of reasons that may account for that, but it is too soon to know the significance of this, if any.

South Korea Reports Recovered Coronavirus Patients Testing Positive Again - The New York Times

[Tccp123]

Food for thought from today's Australian:

This week there were big black police cars marked Public Order and Riot Squad cruising around the quiet suburb where I live. It was 10.30 in the morning. There were barely any other cars on the road and no sign of any public disorder, let alone a riot.

There were seven rangers in my park the day before, more than the number of people exercising, or walking, or looking for a ray of sunshine. On the same day, a tiny bay — not a beach, and not far away from me — was locked up with 2m-high fencing so surfers couldn’t find refuge in the waves. Like the riot squad, the rangers and the men putting up fencing were all just doing what they were told to do by superiors.
Which is the same as the Morrison government. They keep telling us they are doing what their superiors, a panel of scientists, are telling them to do. Closing down businesses, large gatherings, sport, church services, culling funerals and weddings, curbing gatherings to two people, unless you are with family or friends you live with.
Two people? It wasn’t so long ago that governments were making room in their ministries for ministers for social isolation. Now, our governments are forcing the country into strict isolation, under threat of jail.
After only two weeks of this, many people are asking whether we are in a corner with no discernible way out. These sentiments are serious. They will get more serious in another week, two weeks, in another month. Talk of putting the country into “hibernation” for six months seems ridiculous. Can it really work?
We are told there is “no magic” to the highly hypothetical modelling released this week. It is guesswork then? If it is not guesswork, please entrust us with meaningful information that we can use to judge whether the cure is worse than the disease.
All we can see so far is an arms race of restrictions on how we live and work by state and federal governments. Let us award Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews first prize in this alarming competition for doing the most to close down an economy and constraining citizens. With that out of the way, it is time for the federal government, using real metrics rather than hypothetical modelling, to start planning how to reopen the country.
To be sure, listen to medical experts. And then add, weigh up and parse other information too. Information such as the economic costs of shutting down businesses, the long-term effects of unemployment, the costs of piling debt on to future generations, the ability of the country to deal with future crises from a position of economic weakness. Other information too, such as the costs of isolating millions of Australians, the mental health costs, the diseases that won’t be treated properly during this pandemic. And share it with us, even the uncertainty.
From chief scientists to premiers to police commissioners and the Prime Minister, they have all talked about the journey we are on together. Journey together? Short of our political leaders mapping an eventual path to recovery for us, and sharing that with us, there is no journey, only confusion.
There is not going to be a “snap back” to normality — that is the stuff of dreams. It is more silly language that must stop. But please, Prime Minister, take us into your confidence, trust us by telling us what you are watching to plan for recovery, so we can watch for the same metrics. There is a need for some meaningful light and hope for a country swathed in darkness, uncertainty and fear.
Trust is a two-way street. If you trust us with a way out, we might trust you. We will also have some hope, some light at the end of this tunnel. Not trusting us is surely the road to civil disobedience. It’s only been two weeks and people are getting tetchy, itchy, restless. Has the government factored this in? Have they worked out what might be the tipping point for when we disobey and hop over fences?
There are powerful forces working against a meaningful exit strategy. The first one is human nature, always planning for the worst, avoiding all risk instead of managing it sensibly. That is killing our economy right now. It is leading people to despair. The second equation is that no politician is going to be held responsible for the future suicide of an unemployed young man who has lost hope. But they imagine they will be held responsible for the immediate death of a 94-year old from, or with, COVID-19.
No wonder many feel we are heading on a path more dangerous than a virus. Alas, if we want the government to come clean with us, it is time for us to come clean with ourselves. There is no easy option here. We can’t build walls around the country indefinitely. We can’t keep 25 million people in lockdown without dreadful, deadly consequences. We can’t keep praying for a vaccine. What if there is not a vaccine for a year, two years, five years, ever?
Even building up immunity may not work. What if there is another virus just like this one next year, or the year after? The economy in ruins, how do we support another six million who would be thrown out of the workplace by shutdowns. The shocking truth is we may have to learn to live with a killer virus just as we live, and some die, from other killer, albeit non-contagious, diseases.
Before this pandemic is over, we are all going to have to address some tough ethical questions. Questions of life and death, questions about rationing scarce resources, and questions about who gets priority when there is only one parachute but two aircraft passengers. A virus that disproportionately kills old people raises awful, but unavoidable, questions.
But in today’s society, Pollyannas will claim that all lives are of equal value, and that everyone has an equal claim to our limited resources. It is heartwarming. It is also wrong.
How do you answer an 83-year woman who says her life is every bit as valuable as that of a teenager? If there is only one ventilator in the COVID-19 intensive care unit, someone has to choose between giving it to the old woman who may have many health problems and only a few more years to live, or to an otherwise healthy 19-year-old. Do we make them toss a coin? How do we decide, if not by judging which life has more value?
Steve Waterson’s sobering piece last weekend had one particular line that has stuck. Life is precious, but it is not priceless. That is a confronting reality. All sorts of dreadful decisions are frequently made that will save some lives and cause others to die. Who gets the liver transplant, an old man or a young woman? Why aren’t all very expensive lifesaving drugs offered free of charge? Because we do not have infinite resources, so we choose some which we will offer for low or no cost.
Maybe one benefit of the COVID-19 pandemic is that Pollyanna thinking will be put to bed. We can surely never again pretend that hard choices, about life and death, need not be made.
Janet Albrechtsen

[Tccp123]

I think so Bob. I've been particularly watchful of shaking hands and public surfaces in the winter months for years now. Like Boris, for a long time I was in the business of shaking hands sometimes several times a day, and I'd often invent needing a trip to the toilet.

I had a (non) "Tradesman" camped here for a few years - always seemed to be working on something around here. He'd go down the back for a slash and then want to either shake hands or handle my tools or whatever. Used to give me the creeps. Shaking hands with someone like that....you may as well be holding their old fella.

Good to see the thread has lost none of its class while I've been away...