CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[woodPixel]

One day, I hope humanity can live in harmony with the environment.

This is after repairing all the physical damage, reversing our most egregious harms to all species and repair and love the delicate areas for what they are.

I hope this.

But I also believe the best thing for every other animal and ecosystem on this planet is for humans to simply not be present. We are a scourge. An all-devouring, all-consuming, all-killing, all-destroying machine of death.

We need to change, but we never want to change.

[Greg Ward]

You are taking too much a short term view.
It really doesn't matter if you look long term, we all become stardust in a few billion years.
As for extinctions, over 99% of all species that have evolved since life started on this little planet have disappeared, so don't worry too much, statistically it's only a matter of time.
Greg

[Fuzzie]

It's been an interesting experiment.

[BobL]

These WHO graphs are instructive.
The numbers RE about 24 hours behind but trees have not changed.
The three graphs are for China, Italy and Australia

Screen Shot 2020-03-11 at 7.04.32 am.png Screen Shot 2020-03-11 at 7.05.19 am.png Screen Shot 2020-03-11 at 7.05.40 am.png

[Bushmiller]

The stats are now over 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. These are the official stats as of 10 March 2020.

Corona virus. WHO 10 March.jpg

My reservation is that this relies heavily on accurate reporting and correct identification. There could be many more cases and outbreaks. I note that Africa is apparently not significantly impacted at the moment.I find this hard to believe. Similarly South America. This could be a geographical isolation issue. 110 countries have reported cases. These are the most affected.


Corona virus. WHO 10 March countries most affected.png

(Source: WHO)

My earlier question,bearing in mind all the people that die from other illnesses, accidents, violence etc every day, was why is this virus worse or so scary. Possibilities are:

Ease of transmission
No vaccine ( or likely to be available inside of six to twelve months)
Ability of virus to target the susceptible (those with already poor or lowered immune systems)


Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.
.....

Reminds me of when Indira Ghandi was advocating for a TV in every village in India ...... to reduce the birth rate.

[GraemeCook]

....But I also believe the best thing for every other animal and ecosystem on this planet is for humans to simply not be present. We are a scourge. An all-devouring, all-consuming, all-killing, all-destroying machine of death......

Wow, you are such an evil bastard.

What is your solution - mass suicide?

[GraemeCook]

The stats are now over 100,000 confirmed cases worldwide. These are the official stats as of 10 March 2020.
......
My reservation is that this relies heavily on accurate reporting and correct identification. There could be many more cases and outbreaks. I note that Africa is apparently not significantly impacted at the moment.I find this hard to believe. Similarly South America. This could be a geographical isolation issue. 110 countries have reported cases
.......

Nice analysis, Paul.

I also note that the detected and reported cases are largely concentrated in the more economically advanced countries with better medical facilities. "Reported cases" are low for Africa, South America and other low income places.

This may reflect lower mobiliy of poorer people, or simply lack of medical resources to detect cases.

Scary.

[RossM]

Nice analysis, Paul.

I also note that the detected and reported cases are largely concentrated in the more economically advanced countries with better medical facilities. "Reported cases" are low for Africa, South America and other low income places.

This may reflect lower mobiliy of poorer people, or simply lack of medical resources to detect cases.

Scary.

I suspect you are right that the advanced economies are better able to detect & report stats on this, and that mobility of the affluent in our modern world is having a huge influence on the distribution patterns.

Reports of asymptomatic carriers is also likely to mean that the actual infection rates are under reported. It also makes it much harder to control the spread (quarantine is far less effective if you can't readily detect an infectious person). And no definitive answer as to how long a person remains infectious is also a concern.

[woodPixel]

Wow, you are such an evil bastard.

What is your solution - mass suicide?

I read this today on the ABC News' website: Two rare white giraffes killed by poachers, Kenyan conservancy says, leaving only one left on Earth

So.....

I'm not advocating our extinction any more than any other species (except Mosquitoes!). I'm not anti-human. I look to the "ordinary person" and I see kindness and good, but to quote Men In Black "A person is smart. But people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."


People cause unrivalled destruction on this planet and all its inhabitants. People, act in evil, calculated ways to rape and destroy nature unrepentantly.

There are too many examples - dynamiting reefs to fish, chopping down the irreplaceable Amazon for a few cheap logs, pumping irreplaceable oil and burning it in cars, ripping up the rainforests of Borneo to plant Palm Oil trees as a monocrop....

and now, the slaughter of two unique white giraffes, for what? Fun?


I am not the evil bastard. We all are.

This whole thing is The Lorax all over again.

"Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to be get better. It's not."

[BobL]

An important missing number in all these stats are the "number of people tested" using a valid/comparative test. eg The first test the CDC used was apparent invalid.

The real danger with this virus is how close to the edge we are with regular medical services so the virus could affect enough people to overwhelm the hospital/medical system.
Not just because of patients with the virus but how it will put a serious reduction in the numbers of medical staff.
It's not like we have any spare doctors and nurses in the first place.

My mate is a retired paediatrician and says he's waiting to get called up and put on a register - not because kids are catching or dying from the virus but because there are lots of paediatricians close to retirement and a certain proportion of those are likely to get the virus. This means there will be a loss of service to do normal paediatric care and thus more kids will suffer and may die from other complications. Multiply that across the whole health sector and we can then see what is going on.

I have a cousin in Italy who is a senior nurse. She did a 60 hour week for the last two weeks and is scheduled for a 72 hour week next week because other nurses are going down with the Virus.

[ian]

The real danger with this virus is how close to the edge we are with regular medical services so the virus could affect enough people to overwhelm the hospital/medical system.
Not just because of patients with the virus but how it will put a serious reduction in the numbers of medical staff.
It's not like we have any spare doctors and nurses in the first place.

My mate is a retired paediatrician and says he's waiting to get called up and put on a register - not because kids are catching or dying from the virus but because there are lots of paediatricians close to retirement and a certain proportion of those are likely to get the virus. This means there will be a loss of service to do normal paediatric care and thus more kids will suffer and may die from other complications. Multiply that across the whole health sector and we can then see what is going on.

Text of an email received from a friend in Sydney -- sent on Friday 6th March

"Lots of changes happening at my hospital. They have cancelled all hospital meetings from Monday [March 9], & there is a freeze on taking any leave this year until further notice. I was still waiting for them to sign off on leave in Aug so I can take [text deleted], so that has made it interesting!!!"

[woodPixel]

I'd like to think that the gov will "call up" everyone who is a retired doctor (in any form), left the profession, was a nurse or even skilled volunteers/enthusiasts.

I know nothing of the complexities of real nursing, but its critical and it frees up doctors to do the really important stuff. I'm sure an intelligent grunt can be given the basics quick smart... enough to supplement in tough times.

[elanjacobs]

I'm not advocating our extinction any more than any other species (except Mosquitoes!)

I sure hope that was tongue-in-cheek, because an extinction at the very bottom of the food chain like that would probably cause the extinction of more species (either directly or indirectly) than humans ever have

[BobL]

I can just see it now when I go to have my next PET scan in May.
The nurses with years of specialised training that pump my body full of radioactive sugar prior to having a scan have been replaced by an intelligent grunt

Some of the tech the nurse have to use is pretty specialised - I prefer someone with a "quick basics" training is not allowed anywhere near those gizmos - I'm nervous enough with the nurses using them. Wheeling the patients around and cleaning out bedpans is largely handled by orderlies.