Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[woodPixel]

MIT engineers create an energy-storing supercapacitor from ancient materials | MIT News | Massachusetts Institute of Technology

[Warb]

And then there's the LK-99 room temperature superconductor, that might​ be real - it's certainly being talked about a great deal!

[GraemeCook]

... If it's genuinely only 40% full after the last couple of wet years (was Tasmania as wet as everywhere else in Australia?) then perhaps keeping it a secret is wise..?

Finally found some almost useful statistics in OTTER - Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator - was hard going as they file stuff in strictly alphabetical order - August comes before January - go figure. OTTER confirms that the total lake storage sytem is currently 40.5% full.

Lake Energy Storage Levels.jpg

Note, however, another weird measurement, which actually makes sense. They measure lake levels in terms of gigawatthours - the amount of electricity that the water will generate when it goes through the turbines. This reflects that not all gigalitres are the same - one at Great Lake will fall further and generate more electricty than the same amount of water elsewhere with a smaller pressure head.

The apparently low level probably reflects:

• We have recently come out of a long term drout, and
• Hydro has generated too much electricity over a long period.

The latter statement is hard to verify because of the wall of secrecy.

Lake Gordon reached a record low of 6.7% in March 2016, and the statewide storage levels got down to 13% in May that year. Lake Gordon hasn't been anywhere near full for nearly forty years. And statistics that used to be readily available are now "commercial in confidence".
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...R&opi=89978449
Gordon Dam - Wikipedia
https://www.economicregulator.tas.go...6%20Report.PDF

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

That is interesting. We visited Tassie over a year ago and were surprised how dry the country was. We had a wet year on the mainland even in traditionally drier areas of the country inland. Tassie had not been receiving it's share at that time. I don't know how rainfall is distributed across the island, but clearly, like all charts, it does not tell the whole story: Probably can't, but an additional factor would be how likely dams are to refill. Is there a wet side of the Island? Nearly three quarters of Tassie's power comes from just a couple of stations. I am sure there is good reasoning behind all that, which is not obvious from dam levels.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

The West Coast is in the path of the Roaring Forties and is very wet, typically 2,400 mm per year, but not recently. Here are the rainfall figures for Lake Margaret near Queenstown for the last 20 years:

Rainfall.jpg

Most of the middle bit is over 4,000 feet so the east coast is in a rainshadow. Hobart is the second driest capiital after Adelaide and averages 626 mm a year, about half that of Sydney.

Most of Australia has a continintal climate, Tasmania's is maritime which moderates it and with the topogrophy also means that it is about micro-climates. As I write, I can see snow on the mountain less than 10 kilometres away, but we are in an inner suburb and are almost frost free. Frosts start less than 100 m from our place!

When they built power stations, the oldest were much smaller than more recent ones. Yes, 70% is in the storage systems is in two systems and three power stations. Water from Great Lake is released to the north:

• North: Water first goes through the Poatina Power Station with its 758 metre hydraulic head,
• Then the water goes down a canal then into the Macquarie River and onto the Trevallyn Power Station and then through the Cataract Gorge into the Tamar River at Launceston.

The Gordon system has a single power station with a hydraulic head around 200 metres (I couldn't find the figure.)

The next biggest scheme is the complex Derwent Scheme where water is collected from several lakes and rivers and is then "cascaded" through a series of power stations, canals, rivers and lakes - the last is Meadowbank, less than an hours drive from Hobart.

Hydro Schemes.jpg


Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

[Bushmiller]

Hello Paul

Hope you enjoyed your holiday.

Graeme

I did, I did.

A small digression seeing as how you commented. Amongst other things, I saw The Wall at Derwent Bridge, the carved memorial trees at Legerwood, GOMA, Quolls at Cradle Mountain, Apogee winery and (here comes the relevance to this thread) I nearly saw the Duck Reach power station (1895 - 1955). For some reason I decided not to go, but our daughter walked up and took some pix for me. It was the start of hydro power in Tassie and quite an engineering feat in at the time. In fact, Wikipedia says it was the first hydroelectric scheme in the Southern hemisphere.

IMG_6300.jpg IMG_6322 (2).jpg IMG_6323 (2).jpg

As the majority of Tassie's power is renewable from either hydro or wind farms (at least in good times) I would think it may be ideally placed to manufacture green hydrogen. Tassie could be a little like Norway with the electricity production. Already in Norway they have hydrogen powered vehicles and by 2025 you will no longer be able to buy an ICE powered vehicle.

Regards
Paul

PS: I knew there was one other sight. The Mountain Ash in The Styx Valley.

This is how you find it: A "cairn," which in this case is a small pile of rocks, marks the trail entrance:

Pile of rocks 2.jpgPile of rocks.jpg

The trees are big, but I don't have to tell the woodworkers that E. Regnans is the tallest hardwood in the world and to be so tall there is a fair amount of girth too.

Mountain Ash Base.jpgMountain Ash.jpg

[GraemeCook]

Styx Valley.jpg

[GraemeCook]

styx 2.jpg

Styx Valley.jpg Photo by Paul

[Bushmiller]

styx 2.jpg

Graeme

I did indeed mean MONA. GOMA is the Brisbane art gallery, which is nowhere near as spectacular as the underground museum in Hobart. MOMA more resembles the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK: However, David Walsh's creation, while like Lord Dashwood's in principle, is the huge, modern version on a bucket full of steroids and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits.

The Quolls were in fact at the Tasmanian Devil sanctuary. I have to say I find the bad-tempered Devils quite unappealing. The Quolls on the other hand are delightful. Where we used to live, neighbours (about four Kms away as the crow flies or fifteen Kms on the road) were losing their chooks. They sat out one night to watch the chook enclosure and observed a Quoll physically lift the edge of a corrugated iron sheet to gain access to the chook house. Very strong little creatures even if the iron was rusty deformed chook shed iron. I have seen them in the wild on two occasions but only at some distance.

The "Cairn" does not show up well on Google maps or GPS either. You have to know it is there.

The feat of felling any large tree with the use of boards is spectacular, but imagine the bullock team that would have been required to haul the log! Probably why it and the other big trees in the area are still there.

Apogee was the standout winery we visited. Very understated, but simply the best. We had not appreciated bookings were required as the operation is pretty much a one man band. Nevertheless, Andrew Pirie said you are here now so let's do it. Made the day and the trip. haven't looked back or been sober since. (Not really).

Regards
Paul

PS: Digression over. Back to electricity.

[Warb]

Total system is 40% full, 60% empty, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

From what I was reading, and most of it was fishing sites because they were about the only places where data was available, historically the water level in the Great Lake doesn't vary too much from year to year. I recall it was a very long time between increasing the height of the dam wall and getting anywhere near full. The "clerks" have obviously had great success in using the hydroelectric schemes both to fulfil the 100% green dream for Tasmania, and also to provide an income stream by selling the power to the mainland. But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

[Bushmiller]

But being only 40% full when heading into what most of the meteorological organisations have proclaimed an El Nino could be worrying?

I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

Warb

This is exactly the flaw of Hydro power. Being at 40% in itself is not a concern. The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

......The uncertainty of future inflows into the dam is a concern. Abnormal weather patterns are frequently the "normal" cycle of events, and ordinarily we don't bother too much about them, unless, like farmers and electricity producers we absolutely depend on them. For those groups water becomes a big issue.

As a recently retired farmer, I agree 100%. It's also interesting that the majority of lifetime and multigenerational farmers that I know (as opposed to people who relatively recently acquired a farm) all seem to say they have seen multi-year droughts, hot years, cold years and massive bushfires many times before - a memory that doesn't fit with the current view that "never before have we seen......"

It's off topic, I know, but I would also say that most of the farmers I've talked to who are believers and "want action" have got their hands out for grants!

When, back in the 50s and 60s the states formed their electricity bodies, the aim was to ensure "Continuity of Supply." Since privatisation took place, with the exception of Tasmania, which remains in government hands, that is no longer the case. Private companies need to make money.

And big private companies, especially the ones on whom we all depend, are in the lucky position of being able to ask for grants and bail outs when everything goes belly-up as a result of their profiteering......

[woodPixel]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/south-americas-largest-lake-gets-dire-warning-as-water-levels-drop/ar-AA1eBXVO "South America's Largest Lake Gets Dire Warning as Water Levels Drop"

Deadly floodwaters diverted from Beijing inundating outer cities as rescue efforts intensify - ABC News "heaviest rainfall in at least 140 years"

Mid-winter temperatures above 35 degrees Celsius in South America leave climatologists in disbelief - ABC News

....

Today, astoundingly, I saw pollen in the air.

The birds are outside chirping and tweeting as if its spring.

I'm in a t-shirt and no socks, with the doors and windows open to the breeze.

Im in Canberra. It should be freezing.

....

My thoughts go towards our crops.

I'd imagine farming benefits from predictability. When to plant, when to harvest, how much rain/heat/cloud.... this is not my backyard veggie garden where it doesn't matter so much... but for HUGE farm, where 21 million people RELY on industrial food production?

Am I concerned. Hell yes.

[GraemeCook]

... I'm guessing the remaining 40% translates to quite a lot of power, but a couple of years of high air conditioner usage and minimal rainfall might cause some concern, particularly if the refill rate is low even in better times.

Yes; that is the worry.

Back in April 2016 the total storage level got down to 12.8% - that is not a misprint! But it recovered to 40% by early October - six months later.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/p...99e5c1a794c57d

But now it is still at 40% - seven years later. The rainfall figures for Lake Margaret pretty well explain why.

[GraemeCook]

... and has a far more aesthetic grounding, although not without some controversial exhibits. ...

Depends on whether you recognised anyone?