CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

The driver of this madness is that the data we are working with, as has been pointed out by many epidemiologists, is fundamentally flawed. If we don’t know how many people have been infected, we don’t know the mortality rate.

That article has serious flaws and will do significant harm

One does not need to know the infection rate to indicate significant non-normality in death rates.
Just compare the number of deaths per day relative to the usual death rate.


In Lombardy with about 10 million people and about a 90 year longevity, about 300 persons should be dying per day, instead they have days with 600, 700, 800 persons dying.
No flu season in the last 90 decades loses 50 skilled doctors and removes 2000 nurses due to quarantine from a single region like Lombardy
And that is all happening with VERY significant population measures and drastic medical interventions.

I'll leave it to the medical modellers to work out what would have happened if little or nothing was done.

The article appears to have been written some time ago as the references to Sweden and other places having relaxed social distancing and relative normality no longer apply. Sweden now has as fast a COVID19 growth rate as the rest of Europe and even Singapore just a day or so ago has gone from a relatively relaxed open stance to a seriously hard shutdown harder even than us.

Let's see what happens in 3rd world countries where people are packed together like sardines and basically zero medical intervention when this thing really takes off.

[Lappa]

At of yesterday, 59131 people lost their lives to this virus in 3.5 months and that’s only the reported numbers. Let’s say 5% would have died anyway due to old age, pre existing conditions etc.

Thats still 56,114 PEOPLE that died due to this virus and it’s not done with us yet. Not all the dying are old.

If that’s not a wake up call to people who think this is nothing to worry about, well ????

[Tccp123]

We lost 20 people to the disease in Australia in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents

13,000 in one month, and that's just Australia. We only have 26,000,000 people...

[FenceFurniture]

I think to trivialise the seriousness of the situation when it is only a little way past its infancy is somewhat shortsighted, to say the very least. If it turns out to be not too bad after all, in say a couple of months, then that will be different, and I'm quite sure there will be recriminations aplenty.

OTOH, if it turns into the disaster that it is feared to be brewing, it will then be interesting to see what the current doubters have to say...assuming they are still around (because they are more likely to expose themselves to risk through not being diligent).

We'll see.

[Lappa]

We lost 20 people to the disease in Australia in March. In the same month we lost another 13,000 or so to other ailments and accidents

13,000 in one month, and that's just Australia. We only have 26,000,000 people...

And that is 20 people who wouldn’t have died if this virus was not existent. If you look at the numbers of deaths, they are accelerating. What the numbers would have been like if these isolation measures hadn’t been brought in is only conjecture . I remember one health professional saying “ if at the end if all this, numbers are low due these measures and people say what was all the fuss about, I’ll be more that happy to be called a scare monger”.

When was the last time Italy used its Churches as morgues, Spain used an ice skating rink as a morgue,

Its not just about deaths either.
When was the last time Central Park was a field hospital, When was the last time London turned a mile long exhibition centre into a hospital.

I reckon we appear to have got off lightly, but only time will tell.

[woodPixel]

The article that TCCP123 posted is quite thought provoking.

I really do try to read articles and opinions of those I disagree with.

In this case, it mirrors exactly what my own father thinks. I disagree with him.... a lot

One aspect that hasn't been considered in the writers contemplations is that people don't just get a sniffle and light cough. They get heaving damaging respiratory damage, kidney problems, loss of small and taste... and I'm reading more and more of STERILITY in men, and in some brain damage.

It might not kill you, but like polio and measles it can F*ck You Up.

This is the mystery. So much is unknown. So much was covered up.

China has done the world no favours with its actions. It is not incompetence, or a system overloaded. Chinas secrecy and suppression are directly responsible for the situation we are now in. If they had been open, sharing, responsive and not engaged with their BS, then we'd have the deep information that we all need.... Now....

Instead, they encouraged/allowed their citizens to flee the country, spread this disaster everywhere else, then shut the borders. These are not the actions of a friend. This was deliberate. They are the actions of a certified ENEMY.

When this is all dealt with, there must be an accounting.

[FenceFurniture]

20 Australians for 31 days in March.

10 in the last 54 hours.

[Tccp123]

OK I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You've obviously made up your minds and nothing is going to dissuade you from that.

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

See you down the dole queue

[Beardy]

OK I give up. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. You've obviously made up your minds and nothing is going to dissuade you from that.

All I can say is I (and I'm not alone though I appear to be here) hope I'm right and the rest of you are wrong, and that's not so that I can come back and say I told you so.

See you down the dole queue

i get what you are saying and agree with the measured approach the govt has taken to minimise the “ overall “ damage but at the same time am mindful that we could turn into a Italy type scenario if we are not careful
Time will tell.

[Bushmiller]

Another thing that should be borne in mind is that not everyone has internet access or a mobile phone.

Pete

I so understand.

While I have a mobile phone, as in I own one, there is no credit on it and for the rare times I use it (twice in a big year) the number has often been removed because it has been inactive for too long. Also I would have to find it if I needed to use it. Right now I have no idea where it is. To all intent and purpose, I don't have a mobile, but like you I have got to a point in an online registration where entering a mobile number is mandatory. Usually that is where it all finishes for me.

Sorry Graeme Cook: Off topic, again.

As this thread, which I believe is very informative (information can be good and bad) and very necessary in these troubled times, has become a little fractious at times, I felt you would not mind a little light relief:

Light relief.jpg



Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

I agree, keep the surgical grade PPE for the med staff.

However, basic washable masks - even a bandana or a pair of undies will be better than nothing, one in the wash and one on the face when you go outside.... .

Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.

What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada, a well known Lombardy clothing brand?

[GraemeCook]

...
Must say, I'm terribly interested in how places like Iran, India and Africa are doing. I hear so little about them - and they, i think, are REALLY going to cop it hard.

Poor bastards.......

I share your fears. But Africa has dealt surprisingly well with the ebola virus with little more, resource-wise, than common sense.

[Bushmiller]

l

It would appear that my flippant remark from post #69 is starting to become reality with cloth masks and undergarments being suggested for use. The fans of Victoria's Secret and Agent Provocateur may have to revisit K-Mart for some Mighty Whities!

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

...

Sorry Graeme Cook: Off topic, again.

....

Light relief.jpg



Regards
Paul

No, Paul, right on topic. The topic has been constantly evolving for the better.....

Apart from a few thoughtless posts from Ghengis Khan's followers in the callous right or the self-righteous right or whatever you call them.

[FenceFurniture]

Bob, we are still waiting for you to post the photos.

What style of underpants do you wear as a mask when shopping at Coles? Perhaps Prada?

Probably a G-string from his pole dancing days (suggestion: DO NOT try to picture this in your mind's eye).