CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Tccp123]

Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands". I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.

The Mayor of New York has also made masks a recommendation.

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.

[GraemeCook]

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I'm thinking about wearing mine while using Zoom.
....

Good idea. Computers are full of viruses.

[BobL]

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

OK you can leave the Mayor of NY out if you like but Fienberg is representing the NAS and I would not be sneezing at them. Besides the Mayor of NY is a very smart fella on the end of a very pointy stick in the middle of a serious battle field and will be reflecting the advice of his medical experts.

The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.

We need to keep in mind that there are hidden agendas and things will often change (rapidly) in time - you cannot expect even expert advice to stand still otherwise we'd still be in the flat earth zone. When the national stock pile of surgical masks was run down and totally incapable of meeting the needs of medical staff it is not unreasonable to promote the idea of not wearing masks.

Every Pandemic is different and it takes time to understand its transmission, infection etc. The latest bluff is, "wearing masks can be dangerous" but so can washing hands incorrectly, so we mounted a major washing hands campaign. So - get thine ass off the ground and mount a "how to wear masks campaign" it's not that hard and at least the half reasonable will pay attention and maybe do it, the others . . . . . . well, at the very least it may thin the idiots out of the herd.

[GraemeCook]

Well it appears that "wearing masks" will soon be almost as strong a message as "wash hands".
I hope they back it up with a half decent education campaign.....

As I understand it, Bob, masks reduce the risk of infection, but do not eliminate it. Thus there is a risk of creating a false sense of security, especially among the more foolhardy.

Secondly, there is the issue of the supply of masks. There is a major supply shortage and available stock should be reserved for front line emmergency workers. They are accepting quite high risks as part of their professional responsibilities - we, collectively, must not reduce their protective equipment.

I know my GP is concerned about supplies of basics - masks, gowns, gloves and hand sanitiser.

The numbers involved are prodigeous. A few weeks ago when things were just ramping up, the Minister for Health announced that the government had ordered 100,000 masks - a big number! The Dentists Association president then said that dentists alone used 9.5 million masks a year. [Comment: Suppose a dentists sees 20 patients in a day - both he and his dental nurse are masked = 40 masks per day - 250 working days in a year = 10,000 masks. Just one dentist might routinely use 10,000 masks in a year.]

Until there is an adequate supply of masks we must reserve the limited supplies for our front line professionals.

[Tccp123]

We need to keep in mind that there are hidden agendas and things will often change (rapidly) in time - you cannot expect even expert advice to stand still otherwise we'd still be in the flat earth zone. When the national stock pile of surgical masks was run down and totally incapable of meeting the needs of medical staff it is not unreasonable to promote the idea of not wearing masks.

Every Pandemic is different and it takes time to understand its transmission, infection etc. The latest bluff is, "wearing masks can be dangerous" but so can washing hands incorrectly, so we mounted a major washing hands campaign. So - get thine ass off the ground and mount a "how to wear masks campaign" it's not that hard and at least the half reasonable will pay attention and maybe do it, the others . . . . . . well, at the very least it may thin the idiots out of the herd.

Hidden agendas? You don't have to look very far:

"China stockpiled more than 2 billion surgical masks and essential medical supplies in a global panic buy now impacting the worldwide shortage of protective equipment."

"How WHO Became China’s Coronavirus Accomplice. Beijing is pushing to become a public health superpower—and quickly found a willing international partner."

Doesn't take a real good mathematician to put 2 + 2 together here.

[BobL]

I not sure pointing fingers, apportioning blame and chewing the fat over conspiracy theories does much towards an individuals immediate or even longer term problems.

Until there is an adequate supply of masks we must reserve the limited supplies for our front line professionals.

Or make your own. It appears even a bandana or a pair of (newish - unused) undies is better than nothing.

We just had our first mens shed Zoom meeting with 10 attendees, a bit disjointed, but otherwise OK. Its been working better with the smaller group (3-4 people) I have been using Zom with over the last 3 weeks. Interestingly SWMBO was on Zoom with her pals at the same time - seemed to work fine.

[BobL]

Current WHO guidelines for masks. When and how to use masks

"If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection."Note it says "need" , it doesn't say "should not" wear a mask otherwise.
My take on it is pretty basic
- how do you know if the dude or dudette standing in front / behind you in the supermarket checkout lane doesn't know they are infected, or someone who is a confirmed COVID19 infectee who has broken quarantine?
- how do you know you are not infected and not showing symptoms and spreading it around to everyone else.

"Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing."
As far as SWMBO is concerned being so susceptible to allergies that is about 50% of the time.

"Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water
" If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly."
This should be a part of a comprehensive education campaign.

Of course it goes without saying that masks are not an excuse to go slack on everything else - like WW masks they should go on top of everything else.

[poundy]

What I am still trying to articulate to you is that if everyone is complacent, because they think that the statistics are on their side, then the problem gets worse, not better.

You can't avoid being one of the statistics, we're all destined to be part of them. What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.

If you're talking about the chances of dying, then sure, I agree that the chances are not 100% just because you went to the supermarket/library/someplace where others were, but that is not the issue. The issue truly is how quickly we all get hit with this, and stopping that from causing a worse mortality rate through lack of resources to cater for the infection rate.

The guidance is clear - minimise interactions and be cautions.

We all know that cars kill a lot of people on the roads every year. If we were worried that this was a real issue, we would say don't ever go out in a car ever again; but the usual guidance is that yes there's a clear risk but be cautious and take care. That's not saying that removes all risk, just that it lessens it. This situation isn't like normal, however - it's more like vehicles on the road have no traction, and the guidance is now if you're on the road more than necessary, you're not contributing to prevention.

[Tccp123]

I not sure pointing fingers, apportioning blame and chewing the fat over conspiracy theories does much towards an individuals immediate or even longer term problems.

I totally disagree. People and organisations need to be held to account. Not holding them to account allows them to flourish (as has happened with the WHO) and does nothing to stop events like this occurring in the future.

That's why we're in the pickle we're now in. Research their 2009 response to the swine flu pandemic or the Ebola outbreak in 2014. This is from an organisation with more than 5500 employees and a budget in the billions.

We should question what is being achieved by this cumbersome organisation, and whether its vast budget could and should be better spent.

[Fekit]

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

I've gotta tell you, it's tiring. I've had an absolute # gutful of listening to people WHO probably wear slip on shoes, seriously.

If, from the very start of this fiasco we had some of that ....what do you call it.....???? oh yeah..leadership, we wouldn't be within cooee of where we're at, at the moment, medically or financially.

[Tccp123]

I've gotta tell you, it's tiring. I've had an absolute # gutful of listening to people WHO probably wear slip on shoes, seriously.

If, from the very start of this fiasco we had some of that ....what do you call it.....???? oh yeah..leadership, we wouldn't be within cooee of where we're at, at the moment, medically or financially.

Unfortunately that person already has a job...in the US.

[NeilS]

What I'm trying to get you to understand is that the statistics are on your side.

I see QLD now has 835 known infections. That’s out of a population of 5,000,000 or 1 in 6000. Let’s make it 2 in 12,00 because it sounds better ��.

If you express the 'known' infection rate as 1 in 6,000 residents that can lead to false thinking like, as an individual, I have a 1 in 6,000 chance of catching it. Besides the issue that you have identified about the unknown number of real carriers, every carrier can infect multiple people. The estimates of the transmission rates (R0) for this virus range from an average of 1.4 to 4.0 other people for each carrier (source here). The transmission rates can vary for obvious reasons. What the 6,000 uninfected people need to ask themselves is, how many of us can be infected by just one carrier. If we take say 2.75 for example as a possible contagion rate, then the answer would be 2.75 people, so now there are 2,181 uninfected people per carrier, roll the dice again and there will be 2,181 ÷ 2.75, and roll it again.... that is the nature of exponential growth.

The stats will quickly not be on our side!

The other problem I have with expressing infection rates in terms of 'what are my chances of catching this virus as an individual' is that it is lends itself to self-centred and counterproductive ways of viewing the problem. When the herd is being attacked what is need is herd thinking and action to reduce the problem. We are seeing it in spades worldwide and rightly so. Measures such as doubling rates are a far more useful and appropriate way of measuring what is happening to the herd*.

If you calculate QLD's cases expressed as a rate per million of its population then the focus can come back on the collective where the solutions have to be found. It also allows more readily for comparisons against other populations, So, it's 167/m of QLDers, below the 207/m for Australia, but just above 165/m for NZ, and 130/m for the world, and way above the 57/m for China.

*PS - I know some individuals hate to be considered as part of a herd, that is until they need access to the scarce resources that only a herd can provide, like ICU beds during a pandemic.

[BobL]

I totally disagree. People and organisations need to be held to account. Not holding them to account allows them to flourish (as has happened with the WHO) and does nothing to stop events like this occurring in the future. That's why we're in the pickle we're now in. Research their 2009 response to the swine flu pandemic or the Ebola outbreak in 2014. This is from an organisation with more than 5500 employees and a budget in the billions.
We should question what is being achieved by this cumbersome organisation, and whether its vast budget could and should be better spent.

All international organisations are cumbersome because there are always cultural issues, internal and external politics, language and self interest problems involved - there is absolutely no getting around these. I've raised/discussed this several times before in these forums. The practical question is would we be better off without them - on balance I'd say not. I've been on international science panels for over 20 years so I know a fair bit about how they work. It's 90% international relations and 10% science and can be very disheartening. But I would still rather have them than not.

Anyway, no mount of finger pointing, and moaning and groaning about this is going to help individuals over the next year.

[GraemeCook]

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Reminds me of a Roger Rogerson quote when describing the NSW police force back in the '80s "The best police force money could buy" )

Really.... That "quote" was widely used in the promotion of the Underbelly TV series. But attribution of that "quote" actually dates back at least to Mayor Richard Daley in Chicago in the 1950's, but its origin was almost certainly earlier.

[FenceFurniture]

So they sneeze and get goopies on the handrail going into the library, an hour or two later you come past and lean on the rail to get up the stairs easier, then you scratch at your nose as you open the door. Bam.

It's worse than that poundy. The current research concludes that it can live on hard surfaces like plastic and stainless steel for up to 72 hours. However, I think the chances of Tccp123 getting it from the library door are nil (and not just because they might be shut).

Doesn't take a real good mathematician to put 2 + 2 together here.

If nothing else encourages to question things surely this does. Two weeks ago the "experts" were telling us masks were a waste of time. Now the experts (which apparently now includes the mayor of New York) are saying they are almost mandatory. Is it the same experts? Is it different experts? (and who gives them that expert qualification)?

Well, on a difficulty level of 2+2 which should appeal to you: the situation in NY (esp the city) is much more dangerous than anywhere else, and much more dangerous than it was 2 weeks ago. One of the key factors in acquiring the virus to the infection point is HOW MUCH virus you are exposed to. This is why medical staff are in so much danger - they are surrounded by it. As the case numbers in NY get out of control the situation becomes much more dangerous. So because the curve is not being helped or helpful in NY they have to go to the next level of wearing masks.

The message I've tried to spread here (to no avail it would seem) is to question EVERYTHING. Don't believe anything you're told or read without giving it the utmost scrutiny. Not everything the experts say is fact, often it's an opinion clouded by the same fears that drive the rest of us.

There is NOTHING wrong with questioning EVERYTHING. However, there is EVERYTHING wrong with doing NOTHING while you are waiting for your answers to appear.


As for not believing what I read: when it comes to the words of someone who doesn't understand that even at the most basic level, accountants are completely different to economists, you can be absolutely guaranteed that I won't believe what they say, especially quotes without sources, and other quotes that are heavily edited to make it appear quite different to the original meaning.