CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

It appears these are the facts so far:

-- 80% of people will catch this disease
-- 15% of all people will experience an extreme reaction that will require hospitalisation
-- 6% of all people will die

Humm . . . . .that's a bit bold.

From what I have read these are not facts but top end estimates
About the only fact we do know is that nobody knows those numbers.

If you decide to discount the Chinese numbers then we don't have enough data in to get those numbers as the vast majority of infections have occurred in just the last two weeks.
The first German case was reported on Jan 28 and they have ~900 reported cases and no deaths.
Contrast that with Italy and Korea both with with ~7000 cases and 366 and 51 deaths respectively
The numbers are jumping around too much
None of these have reached peak infection so until that happens we simply won't know

I'm not even sure the CDC knows what's going on as they are probably being nobbled by the Trump Administration so I would take anything said by them at this stage with a grain of salt. They also completely cocked up their first sets of tests and had to redo them and are appear now well behind the eight ball and unfortunately worse so in their own country.

[woodPixel]

They are the CDC's stats.

Johns Hopkins too.

Here is the link: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) | CDC


Make of it what each person may. I won't dispute anyone's opinions, experiences or thoughts as I'm trying to find the human side of it - not the governments (whom I inherently distrust).


Personally, I KNEW three people in 1xShenzhen and 2xWunhan. SZ said he reopened a factory but had to reclose. Biz is at a 100% standstill. I lost contact, completely with the Wunhanites. They were telling me of dead people "stored like cordwood" at the hospitals. Since 2 weeks ago, nothing. Others have told me the same of their Wuhan contacts.

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.

[BobL]

Like I said the CDC stats are suss because they have no clue about what is going on in their own country - they simply have not done enough testing. Maybe they are trying to get Trump of his behind to do something because from what I can see they are not doing anywhere near enough.

It will be very interesting to see how this pans out across countries. There will be huge finger pointing and blame games being played. Unfortunately the ultimate winner may well be the economy that gets back on its feet fastest.

[Simplicity]

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.[/QUOTE]


This too my mind is one of these scary things,we are not getting the truth from the Chinese government,
Or possibly even our own government??

Cheers Matt

[BobL]

I dont believe the Chinese figures one single iota. I believe is is complete fabrication and will be between 20x and 100x worse.

Again sheer speculation at this stage.

[A Duke]

We live in interesting times.

[woodPixel]

My comments have been divergent and I dont wish to paint myself as a tin-foil hatter

BUT, someone made an interesting comment once, in passing.

It was fairly simple and flippant, but it stayed with me. It was essentially:.... why would you lock up 750 million people because 3000 died?


Id imagine in a city of 30 million (Wuhan) that that many people must die of falling down stairs every day. Or choke on hot chips. Or go under buses.

Lets try to turn this situation on its head....


What would be so bad, that needed stopping with such incredible urgency, that it required giving your entire economy a heart attack, paralysing it for 2 months and locking up 700, or 750, million people, in their homes?

Do you really think its to slow down a COLD/FLU that they don't really know much about, that officially killed 1000 people at the time.... or is it possibly something much much much bigger than that?


Imagine I'm a Chinese CDC pleb and say to The Boss... "Gee boss. Seems there's a problem. A Lot (50k) people are coughing badly and 1k have died over the last month. Can I stop the entire economy of China for 2 months, Just In Case"

Boss: "No. No you fecun can't" would be the reply.....


OR I say "Boss. The hospitals are chocka-block, 1 million are sick, 50k have died today and it seems to spread to people just being the in the same room for 5 minutes"......

Boss: "Hmmmm, you have my attention...".


Really, do you believe to ONE SECOND that out of 750,000,000 people under quarantine that 3,000 have died?

Really? Lets do the maths. 365 days a year. A person lives 100 years (its a miracle!) that means that for 750M people, 20,500 people die of OLD AGE every day.

and we lock down a civilisation for 2 months based on 1000 dieing over a period of weeks?


Nope. Nope. Don't buy it for a second.

[justonething]

What's are south Korea stats? They have the most complete testing regime believe

[Hoey]

Don't know if this is true or not??!

Chinese woman describes Wuhan virus patients ... | Taiwan News

[woodhutt]

Just watched an interesting doco on the Spanish 'flu epidemic of 1918/19. Here's a link YouTube and it's worth a look to see just how difficult it was to contain even then when people travelled far less. My Dad lost his eldest sister aged 19 to this pandemic in 1919 (he was 12). The doco explains the effects of what was actually Swine fever which jumped from animal to humans (as seems to have happened in Wuhan). It started in the US and was carried to Europe by US soldiers joining WW1. Interestingly, it was called 'Spanish 'flu because Spain was alone in reporting the outbreak and spread of the disease in its borders to the world news media. All other countries seem to have imposed reporting restrictions. The symptoms were apparently more akin to Haemorrhagic fever (like Ebola) than regular 'flu. Pete

[Tonyz]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.

Countries forcing/encouraging their people to stay at home, nothing to do except be safe, be happy and bonk to your hearts content....so petes sake lets look at the funny side.
other option is of course this virus is one way to prevent over population

[BobL]

something no one has thought of...watch the population increase in 9 months time.

Countries forcing/encouraging their people to stay at home, nothing to do except be safe, be happy and bonk to your hearts content....so petes sake lets look at the funny side.
other option is of course this virus is one way to prevent over population

It actually won't help much in population control as it preferentially kills off older folks who were going to die soon anyway.
Effective population control would prevent births happening i the first place.

[Handyjack]

I wonder if it will effect the divorce/separation rate?

[artful bodger]

It actually won't help much in population control as it preferentially kills off older folks who were going to die soon anyway.
Effective population control would prevent births happening i the first place.

Mother nature has got this one wrong then and should lift her game.
Something to stop the scourge, the plague, the infestation of people is perhaps going to be a welcome thing.

[A Duke]

Over population is everybody's baby.