CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[NeilS]

My point is that it makes no sense bringing the whole world economy to its knees, creating an economic desert that might take decades to recover from and ruining the futures of countless numbers of young people because you are frightened by some numbers which in comparison to the total number of deaths are an insignificant fraction.

Really!

Respected economists like Chris Richardson are saying the reverse....

"One thing is clear, a decision taken today on addressing the public health
crisis will be exponentially more valuable as the exact same decision taken
in a week – or even a day.

This is a ‘whatever it takes’ moment for large scale, new and unconventional fiscal and monetary policies." 26 Mar 2020, Source: here



As for the economy taking decades to recover, the GDP of the USA took only six years to return to pre-crash levels. Who is predicting that the economic impact, as considerable as it will be, is going to be worse that the Great Depression?

The OECD predicts that...

“Global growth could drop to 1.5 per cent in 2020, half the rate projected before the virus outbreak. Recovery much more gradual through 2021”.

“Severe, short-lived downturn in China, where GDP growth falls below 5% in 2020 after 6.1% in 2019, but recovering to 6.4% in 2021. In Japan, Korea, Australia, growth also hit hard then gradual recovery. Impact less severe in other economies but still hit by drop in confidence and supply chain disruption”.
Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2020

We are still talking numbers well below the effects of the 'normal' flu.

I do hope you are right, but it's a long way yet from running its course.

And, as others have pointed out, the Covid-19 numbers will be on top of the usual morbidity load, like the 18,000 hospitalisation from the regular flu that we get here on average every winter. Source: Influenza Fast Facts >> Influenza Specialist Group (ISG)

The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved. However, if in retrospect they chose inadequate measures they will have had unnecessary deaths on their watch and the electorate will judge them accordingly. Watch Italy and Spain. But, nobody is going to get it just right in such challenging circumstances, well not unless they get very lucky.

So, every good bit of luck to us here!

[FenceFurniture]

Nope - disagree, at least some of the people dying right now of COVID19 will be in people who were going to die this year anyway, especially those with underlying conditions and in nursing homes - even simple stats will indicate that.

Ok, so I should have said "more or less in addition to everything else on that above list" (which is what I meant). Those who would die of flu might die of C19 instead, but it's not like C19 will overall only be a few additional deaths worldwide if there hadn't been all the measures put in place which have unfortunately made the world economy comatose.

The overall point is that some seem to think we can get through this without whacking the economy, but haven't offered any solutions as to how that would be done. I'm sure that the leaders of the world would love to know how that could be done, because it certainly would be preferable.

[FenceFurniture]

Shirt! 8% in the 60 - 69 age group are going to die. I need to urgently find another 12 men (what about the women? why aren't they dying? Can I substitute a woman if there are insufficient men?) so I am not that one!

Relax man....you'll be 70 soon enough.

[woodPixel]

WRT somewhat pointless comparisons of C19 to flu, gunshot deaths, smoking deaths, child starvation etc:

• Which of the two (C19 or regular flu) is the most deadly is hardly the point - NOBODY has any immunity to C19 (yet) except perhaps those who have recovered. Perhaps it will transpire that some people have been found to be somewhat immune, somehow.

I did say tongue-in-cheek. It was not serious. Geez, you know I'm not serious, even when I trying to be.



On immunity - there is a thing..... this popped out of an AI this morning..... Experimental AI Tool Predicts Which Patients with Pandemic Virus Will Develop Serious Respiratory Disease

Instead, the new AI tool found that changes in three features—levels of the liver enzyme alanine aminotransferase (ALT), reported myalgia, and hemoglobin levels—were most accurately predictive of subsequent, severe disease. Together with other factors, the team reported being able to predict risk of ARDS with up to 80 percent accuracy.

Also, new science! Block the demon things - The They has come up with a solution - Forschungsverbund Berlin e.V. - News


YOUR READ THIS HERE FIRST!

[woodPixel]

masks.jpg

[ian]

regarding reporting from Japan ...
this site Coronavirus Cases in Japan by Prefecture | Nippon.com has a total number greater than that on the Worldometer site.

Haven't done enough analysis to tell if the suspected under reporting is a furphy or was for real

[FenceFurniture]

What makes this a totally different situation, worthy of an extremely heavy handed reaction or indeed over-reaction to be safer, is that the medical staff are bloody terrified. Why are so many of them getting so sick and dying? That does not normally happen. I suspect that the answer (in part) is that there is so much of this virus around through sheer numbers of presentations, and it is known that the more virus there is, the more chance of infection. Perhaps the doubters should go and volunteer their services at clinics or similar.

The conundrum for decision makers is if we come in well below the projections then the measures taken to achieve that will be criticised as being too draconian, but more lives will be saved.

Surely only an absolutely uncaring know-it-all misanthropic person would have that reaction, and I don't think there are many of them around. Certainly not on this forum.

[doug3030]

masks.jpg

Who drew the circles and on what basis?

Surely not everyone in the "masks" circle wears a mask. I know for certain that a lot of people in Australia do wear masks, yet our circle is labeled no masks. Is there data on what percentage of people in each country are masking and if so what percentage defines the cutoff between the two categories?

I went to the shopping centre today and it looked like about 50/50 masks and no masks. But 100% of the people with masks did not seem to see the need for social distancing. I discovered today that it is absolutely impossible to stay 1.5 metres away from someone in a shopping centre unless they are also consciously trying to keep 1.5 metres away form you.

Without some sort of clarity of how those circles were determined it does not really mean much.

[woodPixel]

Well, if you fancy a bit of time on the tools, why not build your very own ventilator!


MIT Team Shares New $500 Emergency Ventilator Design with the Public


Never know, its just like having some spare toilet paper

[woodPixel]

Who drew the circles and on what basis?

Surely not everyone in the "masks" circle wears a mask. I know for certain that a lot of people in Australia do wear masks, yet our circle is labeled no masks. Is there data on what percentage of people in each country are masking and if so what percentage defines the cutoff between the two categories?

I went to the shopping centre today and it looked like about 50/50 masks and no masks. But 100% of the people with masks did not seem to see the need for social distancing. I discovered today that it is absolutely impossible to stay 1.5 metres away from someone in a shopping centre unless they are also consciously trying to keep 1.5 metres away form you.

Without some sort of clarity of how those circles were determined it does not really mean much.

Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe.

It was simply an obvious thought bubble that someone had.... it was obvious to me. The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.

It was just an interesting curiosity, not a scientific study!

[FenceFurniture]

masks.jpg

You doodlings look a bit rude there.

I did say tongue-in-cheek. It was not serious. Geez, you know I'm not serious, even when I trying to be.

Yeah, 'course, but you never know when someone might pick up a factoid and drop the tongue-in-cheek out of it, like when Bushmiller's quoted words were edited so that it appeared that he was a climate denier or at least a skeptic.

[woodPixel]

Thought this might aleiviate some of the .... mood... developing here

[FenceFurniture]

Dude! Take a bit of time to breathe.

With a ventilator?

Well I saw that you have had some uncorrected typos, AND an "i" without a dot! And lookout if I see you type l when you mean t.

The societies that traditionally favour mask wearing when they are sick as an act of social signalling are also those that have very low numbers.

Here in Katoomba we have HUGE amounts of Asian tourists spending their hard-earned, because of what the area has to offer, and it's close proximity to Sydney (2 hours by bus or train to spectacular world heritage scenery, and my shed ). Of course they dropped to a trickle during the fires, but they came back a little bit during February.

When the C19 story started to get momentum towards the end of Feb it was ONLY Asian tourists that had masks on, and virtually all of them did. (they may not have all been tourists...). In the same breath it has to be said that during the bushfires Asian tourists were wearing....bloody useless surgical masks against the smoke. In other words, I don't think for them it's so much about signalling, but more that they think those masks are actually effective, with their huge vents on each side of the face. Certainly they do have a culture of mask wearing - even in normal times I used to see a good amount of them masked up.

[Tccp123]

I took my Tesla to the fast recharge station today and was turned away. That means all night plugged into a GPO! Now I know what people mean by "doing it tough"

[doug3030]

Funny Roos Comedy - 4 STAGE PLAN FOR THE CORONAVIRUS | Facebook