Getting a better Energy deal - WHAT A JOKE!

[FenceFurniture]

Bear in mind that this is an "Opposition" proposal, and as such may never but realised, but it is in today's news.


EDIT: I'd either missed or forgotten the SA is going to build a Solar Thermal Plant at Port Augusta, which will be the world's biggest:
Solar thermal power plant announced for Port Augusta 'biggest of its kind in the world' - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[Bushmiller]

Interesting development in SA with the thermal solar installation The questions and comments I would make. Some slightly mischievous and some just curious:

What is the SA government's electrical load exactly?
Does Solar provide it 100% of the time?
What area do the reflector plates occupy?
How does the installation cost compare with other installations?

I work at a small thermal coal-fired power station. It has two units producing a gross output of 870MW. It cost $1.4billion when built in 2004 (completion time). The solar venture is 150MW costing $650million, if it comes in at that. You can see from the comparison cost per MW why solar has difficulty gaining a foothold and why subsidies had to be introduced to increase the volume which in turn reduces capital costs.

Incidentally, one aspect of both solar PV and solar thermal is the maintenance cost. It may be imagined as minimal and in a domestic context probably is, but in an industrial scenario those collectors have to be kept clean: All of them.

Nothing is truly free.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Incidentally, one aspect of both solar PV and solar thermal is the maintenance cost. It may be imagined as minimal and in a domestic context probably is, but in an industrial scenario those collectors have to be kept clean: All of them.

Surely there is more to it than that? Don't we have to consider
Construction/Installation Costs (inc cost of land)
Maintenance costs
Running Costs
Longevity of plant

to arrive at comparable figures?

Apparently a coal fired PS lasts about 50 years (in the case of Liddel, and I think Hazelwood), but maybe your station has a different life expectancy Paul? I have no idea what they expect out of the Pt Augusta Solar Thermal.

[Chris Parks]

Where is the power going to come from to supply the inter connectors that they propose to build? Is more generating capacity going to be built? This is classic politician thinking 101, look at the government proposal, scratch head and get splinters in the finger tips and get a bright idea that will sell in the affected electorate, in this case SA. So if these transfer lines are built, most probably won't happen but let's shoot for it does, SA starts to need more power to handle the peak load, suppliers pull power and cause shortages on the Eastern seaboard as SA will bid more. yep, that should work!

[woodPixel]

whatifwerewrong.jpg

Burn more coal. Thats the answer. Lets not pursue alternatives, cos CO2 isn't a problem...

BOM drops a special climate statement explaining why it was so hot in September and
Spring heatwave hits east coast, with temperatures soaring in New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria

and a clanger from yesterday: Its all too late, the runaway heat buildup may be irreverasable and cascade: https://insideclimatenews.org/news/0...e-change-study

We will argue about "cost" of solar, but what is the real cost? I'd argue the cost is the very planet itself. The cost is our grandchildren going through 50 degree days in Sydney: 'Really awful': 50-degree days possible for Sydney, Melbourne, as warming worsens

Its time we started getting 100% serious about reforestation and planning enormous carbon sinks. We need to stop producing CO2 - TODAY.

Coal plants are not the answer. Reduced consumption and alternative generation is.

[ian]

Yes, out of a paltry 22,000 suitable sites nationwide for pumped hydro (which is 100s of times more than we need forever, or something ridiculous like that).

Pfffft. What are we thinking? What would the scientists know? Business & Govt is always right.

Well despite your misgivings, in this instance Government is sort of "right".

The "22,000 suitable sites" is almost certainly based on the determination of a bunch of engineers answering the question "where does the topography, rainfall and geology support the construction of a new dam that could be used for pumped hydro generation." Those engineers probably have reservations about the economic, social and/or environmental viability of 21,998 of the sites nominated, but have been discouraged from nominating those sites that would be "unsuitable" if you look beyond simple engineering.

If you think back to the Franklin Dam Federal Election (1983) you will recall the national angst engendered by the Tasmanian Government's decision to develop a hydro dam at one of those 22,000 sites. Since then Governments have been much more "sensitive" to public opinion, and I'd wager real money that any significant pumped hydro system that requires a significant size new dam or three would face great opposition, and not only from the The Greens.

[FenceFurniture]

Cockups & incompetence are now officially on an industrial scale.

Way back in post #1:

After my initial call to AGL my Gas discount went from 2% to 16%, and then in a subsequent phone call it magically became 20% (without saying anything), and Elec went from 6% to 24%.

I had not had my regular Gas bill issued after 16th Sept (when it was due), and last week made a phone call to find out what was happening. They said they would chase it up and have the bill issued. It also surfaced that my Gas Meter had been read on the 14th, 15th and 19th Sept (perhaps they are going over to issuing daily or twice weekly bills for efficiency?).

So at about 9am this morning the bill was emailed to me. It was only for 68 days, up until the 22nd August, not ~16th Sept as it should be. Indeed, I had somewhat over-optimisticaly hoped that they may have been able to issue a "Final" bill, given that (as I understand it) that should be for 3 days later on 19th Sept.

Couldn't be that hard could it? Just a little waffer thin 3 days?

The bill is the usual jumble of lines that are not in any kind of logical order. The viewer that has been paying close attention to this saga may remember that I first contacted AGL on 23rd Aug and that is when the first of the new discounts was to apply from. Also, way back in post #1:

After my initial call to AGL my Gas discount went from 2% to 16% but only from 23rd Aug (I tried for the whole cycle), and then in a subsequent phone call it magically became 20% (without anyone saying anything).

This bill is for 15 days at the pre July 1 rates and old discount, and 53 days at the new skyrocket rates and but old discount (2%).

'Cept it's not. Like Basil Fawlty before me, "for once in my life I'm ahead - oh THANK you mmWAA!" (blowing a kiss skyward) (Mrs Richards/Broken Vase episode).
Just the six cockups in this bill:

1. All usage charges at a (never before previously mentioned ever ever ever) 15%, not 2% (fine by me)
2. All usage charges both before AND after July 1 are at the pre-July 1 rates (again, fine by me)
   
3. BUT curiously Daily Supply charges are correctly calculated at 15 days pre 1/7 and 53 days post 1/7 (meh)
   
4. A ZERO% Pay on time discount from previous Bill is $6.58cr (eh? how does THAT work)
5. My June 29 payment is split into two mysteriously BUT for once, all my advance payments are listed chronologically
6. 68 days worth of my NSW Gas Rebate is also unnecessarily split into two payments of 15 & 53 days pro rata

The result of their miscalculations is about $40 in my favour (maybe they'll correct that with another bill 1.2, and I have a total of $271.23 credit.

What's next, I wonder?

[FenceFurniture]

there IS more......

While I was entering the data of that bill into my trusty spreadsheet I noticed two more emails had come through.

Yep, two more bills, the first of which is for the last period of the first 15 days of Sept at a 16% discount - (remember that one?), and the last was for the middle period of final 9 days of Aug but at the last pre-retention discount of 20%.


And STILL no final bill, so they are actually going to send me another bill for 4 days at some point.

I think there must be about 6-8 cockups in that lot above, which makes a mere dozen or so for the day. A superb effort indeed!

[fletty]

Coal plants are not the answer. Reduced consumption and alternative generation is.

Unfortunately that's not the complete answer either but it is usually at this point in the discussion that hysteria takes over and fact and physics takes a back seat. Having just spent 2 months in Europe, it was absolutely refreshing to see scientists and power engineers taking the lead in public discussion and not politicians, entrepreneurs, idealists and lobbyists.
The facts are that

• all current, socially acceptable forms of renewable and/or 'clean' generation require storage to work.
• the current storage proposals being enacted in Australia will have minimal positive impact unless there is the generation to charge them
• (this is a point that I have not seen publicly discussed anywhere but.....) in Australia, by far our greatest load centres ( Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, Geelong) are aligned North to South and so 'suffer' peak loads at identical times
• this means that Australia will need much more storage than any other OECD country who can spread their load and generation across time zones,
• we may have to spread our load centres by time so that currently available and socially acceptable technologies for generation and storage can cope (ie 3 different time zones for the 3 eastern states!)
• Every load vs generation forecast for Australia that I have seen, has us running out of power anywhere from 2020 to 2025. It takes 3-4 years to build a significant solar generator and 8-10 years to build a new but marginally cleaner coal fired generator so, whichever way we go, we are going to run out of power.
• we need 'human engineering' decisions and actions NOW.
• The only generation and network capacity 'surplus' that we have to work with is lopping off our peak loads. IF we can prevent peak loads then quite a few load vs generation forecasts advise that we don't need to increase generation beyond our current level but nor can we afford to cut any current generation either.
• SO, if we were to spread our peak times, (QLD, NSW and Vic on 3 separate time zones!), use (for example) smart meters and/or smart networks to cycle or shed time-portable loads such as air conditioners and clothes dryers we have a chance of avoiding blackouts in a few years.

Now, just another point of caution. All of the countries/societies that we admire and hold up as examples of already solving this parlous situation, have load profiles where WINTER is their peak load period. Copper/aluminium wired networks can deliver anywhere up to 20% more power in winter than they can in SUMMER. WHEN we solve it (because we have to!), we will be the first SUMMER PEAKING society to do so. Others society's successful paradigm changes often don't work here.
So, should we get back on subject now?

[FenceFurniture]

Well despite your misgivings, in this instance Government is sort of "right".

Actually I don't know that the Govt passed any comment on that news article (so neither right nor wrong). I understand that they were just talking about what was feasible from an engineering point of view, but equally, we only need a fraction of those sites to get by swimmingly apparently, so with all the other measures that will also come in (predominantly rooftop solar) we'll probably only need a fraction of the fraction.

Yeah, remember '83 very well. Hawkey won a lot of votes promising to stop the dam but in the end he weaseled out and handed it over to the courts when he could and should have shown some backbone and told Tas that they were not going to be allowed to apply for the loan (which he could have done). It could have gone either way in the court, and it was a very tense time. Hawke of course eventually took all the credit for doing absolutely bugger all - in fact he endangered the situation. Had it gone the other way I think he would
a) have not gone to an early election in '85 (where he lost 2% votes), and
b) would have lost the next election after 1983, whenever it would have been

[ian]

... just another point of caution. All of the countries/societies that we admire and hold up as examples of already solving this parlous situation, have load profiles where WINTER is their peak load period. Copper/aluminium wired networks can deliver anywhere up to 20% more power in winter than they can in SUMMER. WHEN we solve it (because we have to!), we will be the first SUMMER PEAKING society to do so. Others society's successful paradigm changes often don't work here.
So, should we get back on subject now?

Well it is Brett's thread, and so far he's not complaining about the digression.

To which digression I'll add -- possibly the least expensive "fix" to SA's and the Eastern States' power woes might be to mandate that for every 10 MWh of solar and wind electricity bid into the market the bidding organisation must be able to supply 5 MWh of "dark time" reserve: battery, pumped hydro, coal generation. This should change the generator pricing equation enough to provide some measure of market certainty to the existing base load stations.

[ian]

just another point of caution. All of the countries/societies that we admire and hold up as examples of already solving this parlous situation, have load profiles where WINTER is their peak load period. Copper/aluminium wired networks can deliver anywhere up to 20% more power in winter than they can in SUMMER. WHEN we solve it (because we have to!), we will be the first SUMMER PEAKING society to do so. Others society's successful paradigm changes often don't work here.

Now that you are retired are you "permitted" to provide that insight more generally?

Thank you

[woodPixel]

I think it's OK. I read Flettys good response and at first I'll admit to being pretty inflamed about it. I don't take criticism or condescension easily (people who know me would say "not at all"!) but its important to say. Not for "balance", but it keeps me thinking - quite hard. It ensures Im not being a nutter and my thoughts are reasoned. I took some time out from the shed and hung out the washing, it's a good warm spring day for it

Its a good conversation, for this thread I've learned quite a lot.

One thing that did inflame to to apoplexy though is the speech given by our former PM yesterday: Tony Abbott says climate change action is like trying to 'appease the volcano gods'

Wow, does that guy grill my grits.

One thing I might point out, but there are no articles, that Canberra is whacking up Solar farms like crazy. There are two stupendous ones near where I live. All previous sheep farms. Now, more so, for they now keep the grass short saving some poor serf from whipper snipping the poles of 350 football fields 24x7! These were built in weeks.

-- 'Australia's largest' solar farm opens at Royalla south of Canberra
-- Mugga Lane solar farm opens, bringing ACT to 35 per cent renewable energy

Its amazing how toxic the Liberal party has been on this subject. Their opinions and opposition to alternatives are like a religious conviction. Its like they are invested in coal or something....

[FenceFurniture]

Unfortunately that's not the complete answer either but it is usually at this point in the discussion that hysteria takes over and fact and physics takes a back seat.. The only hysteria allowed is my own, as be-fitting the long suffering position I am in.

Essentially I agree with WP, that coal is not the solution, or at least should not be the solution. I would be extremely surprised if there are not better ways to solve the problem for the long term (in all senses of long term like financial, environmental, the bequeath to our kids etc) that do not involve coal. However, I am not qualified to venture what they might be. A clue might be to look at what other non-China non-India and non-nuclear advanced economies are doing to ensure their energy needs are met. How many of them are building for coal burning?

In Australia, by far our greatest load centres ( Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Newcastle, Wollongong, Canberra, Geelong) are aligned North to South and so 'suffer' peak loads at identical times

That is very astutely observed. However, I'm not sure how much value there is in trying out different time zones for two reasons. Firstly, you could only get a spread of 1 hour at most (which would bring its own chaos in other ways). Secondly, if it's hot then it's hot and the aircon will be on. Maybe we don't get heatwaves in Syd & Melb on the same days.....but maybe we do, and maybe that will become more frequent. Staggered "daylight saving" might be better for the nation's curtains, but not much for energy demands. It might be interesting to look at how Qld copes with summer demand, as surely the aircon is always on everywhere up there?

so, whichever way we go, we are going to run out of power. We need 'human engineering' decisions and actions NOW

Indeed we do. And a nano-second before that we need real leadership from the very top. Enough of this Fizza stagnation - the country is kinda paralysed - business certainly is. Businesses don't know what to invest in because of this stupid indecision, lack of leadership, and flip flopping policy changes for the last 10 or more years.


That also goes back to the plethora of black, panel-less rooves in Oran Park. There was a perfect opportunity to address a minor but growing part of the problem, but nothing happened. That beggars belief.

The only generation and network capacity 'surplus' that we have to work with is lopping off our peak loads.

Which again goes back to solving the problem locally with a vast injection of Solar panels immediately. Ok, there'll be some panel supply shortages until we build the factories etc etc but the point is that it will start providing a solution much earlier than huge power station et al constructions.

This is also why I think we should be getting serious about putting batteries in - ahead of the tech being right. The more income the battery suppliers have the more they can sink into R&D. Yes the first few years of batteries won't be as good as subsequent models and might be a bit more wasteful of resources, but they will have gotten us out of gaol, right? (hopefully).

I mean, what other short term solution is there? The coming summer may just be a tipping point to shake out some decision making from within the deep folds of the Prime Ministerial cloth. If it's a stinker - and that's the forecast - and there are power outages, the electorate is going to get very thirsty for blood, methinks.

If the next summer after that is the same, and even worse for outages as things get older, the next Fed election will be just a few short months after the end of that summer. Crikey, who knows, we might be in for an early election thanks to Section 44, or if someone to the Speaker's right develops some backbone and crosses the floor.

And won't all the critics of SA look like idiots if SA sails through with few problems while the rest of the country is enduring outages at critical times.......

[BobL]

And just to add to the mix we have this going on.
The construction loophole leaving home buyers with higher energy bills - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)