CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[woodPixel]

By the way Mr Anonymous!, Your video link into Wuhan seems to have stopped working. I have not been able to access that for several days now. Perhaps my cynical self is coming to the fore, but is this so the "improvement" in Chinese data cannot be dis-proved do you think?

Well, there are theories and then there are conspiracy theories.

It couldbe that they all Just Went Offline. It couldbe that they accidentally recorded thousands of corpses being loaded up and trucked out... and it couldbe that they were showing the "back to business" of Wuhan looked more like a small town, on Sunday at 3am.....

I'm trying not to think about China right now. I'm aware that the English Government is (as the English put it) a touch cranky with them.

There are other things I'm aware of on the origins of this thing, that will come to light. When they do, well, won't that be.... interesting. China is problematic.

[GraemeCook]

After bagging youtube this visually simulated maths is, at a minimum, interesting

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.

Thanks, Bob. That maths simulation seems to pretty well endorse the actions of the Australian government and society with one notable exception.

The simulation highlights the dangers from visiting a market or supermarket. The obvious solution would be a non-contact home delivery service. But Coles and Woolworths solution was to stop their home delivery services two weeks ago. In retrospect, gross irresponsibility, although I will admit that I did not appreciate the implications when it happened .

Just received some junk mail from Australia Post extolling the benefits of their collusion with Woolies to deliver the Woolworths Basics Box. Little more than a synical public relations exercise unless you want precisely what they ordain you to need. If something you need is not in that box then you still have to visit the supermarket which negates the benefit of the box.

[NeilS]

It takes 20 minutes but you should hopefully gain a better idea of the control being pursued by the Govt.

Thanks Bob, and yes very interesting for us non-epidemiologists.

[Tccp123]

Yeah I get all of that and that is one aspect and I know the debate comes up about them not paying company tax but company tax is just one tax out of many and yes I agree it would be best if they did pay it but even some of our high profile sports stars that many worship in this country have a foreign registered abode to avoid paying tax here but I don’t hear much said about that.
Keep in mind the indirect tax they pay/ generate through the various sales taxes, fuel excise, GST and PAYG tax of their thousands of employees, luxury car tax etc etc etc
I agree 100% that it would be good if they also paid company tax as well but if they folded or left the country then we get non of those thing plus we would have a welfare burden as well for the unemployed.

I know the current system is far from perfect but it is still better than the alternative.

Reminds me of this old story...

The Parable of 10 Men in a Bar

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes,it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that’s what they decided to do.
The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve. ‘Since you are all such good customers,’ he said, ‘I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.’ Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.
But what about the other six men – the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his ‘fair share?’
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100%savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
‘I only got a dollar out of the $20,’ declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, ‘but he got $10!’
‘Yeah, that’s right,’ exclaimed the fifth man. ‘I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I got!’
‘That’s true!!’ shouted the seventh man. ‘Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!’
‘Wait a minute,’ yelled the first four men in unison. ‘We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!’
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that,is how our tax system works!!
The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

[BobL]

Thanks, Bob. That maths simulation seems to pretty well endorse the actions of the Australian government and society with one notable exception.

Yep - I agree

The simulation highlights the dangers from visiting a market or supermarket.

Yep and All the more reason to SPELL out how groups go to the supermarket. The gubment is getting better at explaining this but the BIG one they're they're missing out on is "no shopping in groups" including families.
Mum/dad and two kids - no
Mum, Grandma and Grandpa - no
Dad/Uncle and 2 kids - no
Gaggle of teenagers - no
Mum/Grandma and 3 kids no
Mum and grandma - no
Mum and older and younger kid - No
Mum or Dad or Carer and two small kids - OK if there's no one at home that can look after the kids.

On the radio this morning for the first time I heard for the first time "don't go to the supermarket for an outing". On the weekend while waiting I saw a family group of 6 eating ice creams outside the main door of the shopping centre. Should have been pushed harder earlier.

The obvious solution would be a non-contact home delivery service. But Coles and Woolworths solution was to stop their home delivery services two weeks ago. In retrospect, gross irresponsibility, although I will admit that I did not appreciate the implications when it happened .

Yeah they were over run - we got our first grocery delivery in 10 days late last week. Luckily we had already registered and used the service a few weeks before the proverbial hit the fan. Also about half a dozen things on the list were not available via home delivery so SWMBO ended up going to the the supermarket anyway. SWMBO also did some shopping for friends of ours in self quarantine.

[NeilS]

Attachment 470709 Infections relative to geography divided by population density

Attachment 470710

I can now see where we need to locate our quarantine camp... just a bit north west of Woomera.

[BobL]

I can now see where we need to locate our quarantine camp... just a bit north west of Woomera.

Maybe at the corner of SA/NT/WA
Interestingly the WA border does a bit (100m) of a dog leg there - I've never noticed it before.
ON the WA border its called Ngaanyatjarra-Giles.
Theres even cupel fo buildings there!

[FenceFurniture]

Attached is the spreadsheet that I used for those screen captures yesterday. It's a bit more automated now, but to use the sort buttons you will need to have macros enabled. The data is still as at yesterday.

I'll update every 3 days.

[Tccp123]

Mum/dad and two kids - no
Mum, Grandma and Grandpa - no
Dad/Uncle and 2 kids - no
Gaggle of teenagers - no
Mum/Grandma and 3 kids no
Mum and grandma - no
Mum and older and younger kid - No
Mum or Dad or Carer and two small kids - OK if there's no one at home that can look after the kids.

Maybe it's because you spend most of your time at home or perhaps it's because I live across the road from a primary school and see what's going on but you're living in another universe if you think any of these can be achieved by government mandate. It ain't gonna happen...

[doug3030]

you're living in another universe if you think any of these can be achieved by government mandate. It ain't gonna happen...

Went to our local Coles this afternoon. Jools had a trolley, I went off and grabbed a couple of items and returned to her, we pulled over to the side of the aisle while I put the few items in the trolley. I saw a woman walking quickly down the aisle towards us and I said to Jools, "She isn't going to go through there surely." but she pushed in through the small gap, making forceful contact with me on the way through.

Well we kept our cool and spoke to her and she said something about us being in her way so F#c% us, she had to get through. Jools said something about social distancing being important. Then she spat in Jools's face.

Long story short, I followed her to her car, police were called, I gave them her rego number over the phone. Police were dispatched to talk to us. They had phoned this woman up before they even spoke to us and were told we were overreacting to a little accidental bump.

Police told us we were being unreasonable, no chargeable offence had occurred and they would take no action. She must have been the mother of one of them or something.

So even with a Government mandate unless they start charging people and telling the public that things like this will be taken seriously there is no hope of any sort of meaningful compliance.

[NeilS]

Attached is the spreadsheet that I used for those screen captures yesterday. It's a bit more automated now, but to use the sort buttons you will need to have macros enabled. The data is still as at yesterday.

I'll update every 3 days.

Many thanks, Brett.

Those are going to be very helpful in judging how we and some comparable countries are performing.

[BobL]

If anyone feels capable of contribution to tech/management/design/Fab of COV19 related equipment/logsistics/solutions/quick fixes etc you might want to check this our

Mobilise Aus COV19 Onboarding

There's currently 155 members from all walks of life, lots of 3D printing people joined up, but also managers, IT people and I even noticed a wood worker in there.

My young bloke has joined a team pumping out 3D printed headbands for medical face shields. They have a big order from state hospitals.

[NeilS]

The time difference between North America, Europe and here partly explains why the data appears to lag at times. It depends in part on when the staff behind the different sites are awake and updating their data and when the official figures are released country by country around the world time zones.

I've found this site run by a 17yr old is the first to update. I wonder if he ever sleeps. Perhaps the 'Buy me a cup of coffee' button is keeping him wake with caffeine.

Coronavirus Dashboard

The deputy chief medical officer has just agreed to release some time this week the modelling that they have been working on. That will be most interesting to see.

Here is the modelling from the The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the USA.

COVID-19

A projected 15 days to peak with 80,000 deaths (0.02% of their population, more than twice that from regular flu in an average year) resulting in insufficient ICU beds (a shortfall of 27%). We can follow day by day to see how closely they fare against the projections on those graphs.

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

[Tccp123]

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

I doubt it very much...

[doug3030]

If anyone would like to wade into the background modelling and assumptions, see the attached.

I am pretty sure that there are a lot of suitably skilled people out there with better access to more comprehensive critical data in a more timely fashion than anyone on this forum could dream of getting. Even if you come up with some sort of a solution you will have a hard time convincing anyone to act on it, and even if you were successful in doing so it would already be too late.

But hey if it gives you something to amuse yourself with while in self-isolation waiting for the test kits to arrive, then go for it.