CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Tccp123]

Been reading the discussion for a period.
We have a range of members, some have been high flying executives, some teachers, a lot in IT, some sole traders, many retired. None have had to manage a small or large country as far as I am aware
What is interesting to me is the different attitudes of the armchair critics.
And the measured comments or absence of comments from those who have had to manage a business or been involved in crisis management.

In all fairness to myself I did nominate BobL for PM last week but there wasn't a lot of support...

[Beardy]

That's a fair point, but going to the footy and delaying measures to do so was really bloody dopey - it was a terrible look. As was the Chief Medical Officer shaking hands with journos in the green room before Insiders two weeks ago (was commented upon by the same journos at the time).

Certainly I think SmirKo's performance is now significantly better than his bushfire response. He just needs to react quicker and stronger with lockdowns and the like. Those sorts of decisions should be in the control of the most senior (unelected) health professionals who have the nouse, not politicians who crave to be loved and who may or may not follow the best public health advice they are given.

Yes I have to say Schomo was not real flash during our recent fire crisis but think his last couple of addresses to the nation have been substantially better, he has spoken clearly and given reasons for his decisions and sounded like he has a handle on the situation
Whether that is the case or not will soon be apparent but the perception is much better than the bushfire fiasco

[FenceFurniture]

Even though death rate figures are flawed (because the case rate is very rubbery), the worldwide figure is 4.65% (30,780 D and 662,073 C). That's seems extraordinarily high considering, IIRC, figures of 1-2% were suggested. Maybe there are a helluva lot more cases than 662,073.

Death rates in no particular order:
Germany 0.75%
USA 1.75%
Italy 10.84%
Spain 8.17%
France 6.08%
Australia 0.38%

So unless the USA is covering up deaths (hardly likely, and probably impossible), their rate is not nearly as bad as Europe. Another 7 days might show more reliable trends.

[Bushmiller]

However with residential, those that are forced to sell their owner-occupied homes (or are foreclosed upon) will still need somewhere to live, and so can take up some of the slack in residential rental properties. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if vacancy rates went down (some) in a recession, not accounting for the poor souls that end up homeless.

Brett

That is why I mentioned that banks should give space on the mortgage aspect. They are the one group that can be assured of recovering their money eventually. As I said, extend the mortgage to give relief during the troubled times. I would mention that it may need the government to legislate and then the question arises as to whether they will do that in a reasonable period of time.

Regards
Paul

[Beardy]

I agree with you Bushmiller and likewise you hear criticism of the gubberment providing financial assistance to the big end of town and our airlines but just like the banks, it is in the public’s interest that these companies are still around after the crisis so that there are jobs for us to go to and we have a base to grow the economy off again

[BobL]

I see the authorities have recently been touting the reduction in the rate of growth of cases from 25-30% down to 13-15%.

Firstly I don't think any "rate of case growth" is worth much given our 8000/million testing rate but I guess its better than nothing.

Then while its great to see the case rate going down, a 27% growth rate sees a doubling of cases every 3 days, whereas 14% is still a doubling rate of 5.4 days.

IMHO 14% is still too fast a doubling rate to make practical changes and then hope it will have an effect. The wait and see method has a chance of working when the doubling rate is greater than the max time step that is trying to be assessed. If the virus has a max incubation period of 14 days, that translates into a <5% growth rate of cases. Until the growth rate is reduced to <5% it would seem prudent to do the most one can. It's far easier to ease off a brake action once you know you know you are definitely going to stop before you hit a tree, than to try and wing it with gentle taps on the brake, especially given the lack of taking this serioulsy by a sizeable proportion of the general public.

[ian]

Brett

That is why I mentioned that banks should give space on the mortgage aspect. They are the one group that can be assured of recovering their money eventually. As I said, extend the mortgage to give relief during the troubled times. I would mention that it may need the government to legislate and then the question arises as to whether they will do that in a reasonable period of time.

well CommBank has already made an "accommodation"

"Defer your [mortgage] repayments

Home loan customers requesting financial assistance during this time will be able to defer their repayments for 6 months, with interest and fees added to their home loan and loan term extended."


not sure about the other banks -- i.e. I can't be bothered to look up each of them -- but deferring payments for 6 months to me seems reasonable.
It will depend on what further accommodations are made after 6 months.


Not sure if the banks are still smarting from the Royal Commission fall out or if they are just being pragmatic. No one, least of all the mortgage insurers, wants to see approximately 1,000,000 mortgage defaults.



so in one sense, the big banks have acted without the need for the Government to legislate

Evidence of the market working??

[Bushmiller]

This, I think, is going to be a little bit of a round up on my own perspective on the situation. The first question (rhetorical) is why this pandemic has created so much more reaction/panic than any other that has gone before. The Spanish flu, for example, in 1918 infected over 500 million people and killed between 17 million and 50 million people (an indication of the lack of accurate reporting and probably a level of despair as that pandemic spiralled out of control): Clearly much worse than we have experienced so far with Covid-19, which is not to say that we will not to get to that stage(we may). Well:

• We today, compared to 1918, have an extensive communications network so everybody is aware. Graphic scenes can trigger the imagination and horrify the mind with ease.
• Despite our medical advancements, which have been huge, there is no vaccine. Think immediate panic as there is a vaccine for the majority of severe, contagious illnesses today.
• We are used to emergency patients being able to receive immediate and appropriate treatment. The prospect of that not being available is too horrible to contemplate for many.
• There is a distinct impression held by many people that various governments (not just Australia) have been slow to act and reluctant to make difficult decisions until public pressure has shamed them into action.It is clear that some countries have taken action while Australia has procrastinated and drummed up pathetic excuses as to why they should or should not take a particular course of action.

As to the virus Covid-19 itself:

• One disturbing aspect is that this particular strain is insidious.
• Relatively little is known about it and much of that is really only being gleaned from the episodes already acted out in the first countries to be infected (China, Italy, Spain and now the US)
• The worst may still be to come with the virus likely to rampage through India and some other Asian countries. Arguably their sheer number and lack of commensurate facilities may be completely unable to stem the virus and allowing it to ravaging the populace (that is my take, nothing to back that up at all: Hoping I am wrong)
• Several aspects are particularly insidious. Some people are carriers but display no symptoms or discomfort. They become "sleepers" or more likely "time-bombs."
• We don't really know the incubation periods or the infectious periods. Much is still guesswork, although that may become more informed as time goes on and numbers of cases can be examined and categorised.
• We do know it interferes potentially quite seriously with the respiratory tract and those with any existing history in that area are particularly vulnerable. Inevitably this tends towards older people, but not exclusively. The youngest person in my work group is 34 years and he may be the most at risk (asthmatic ). So no cause for complete complacency there.
• Out of people infected with the virus around 15% will present with severe symptoms that require hospitalisation and specialist care and overall around 4% may die, but there is a wide range of death rates between different countries. This is partly due to reporting methods (including actual cases of infection) as well as health facilities. Initial symptoms are a dry cough and a fever, which in the more severe cases can lead to breathing difficulties and pneumonia. There may be other symptoms, but this appears to be variable and not everybody presents the same.

What action are individuals taking?

• The virus is spread primarily (and as far as we know) by two means. The first is direct moisture particles from an infected person either by coughing or sneezing directly onto another person. The way to counteract this is to stay a distance away. 1.5m has been recommended. I suspect that to be absolutely safe it should be at least 3m.
• The second method of transmission is indirect. In this case the infected person deposits an infected fluid onto a surface (by coughing, sneezing or wiping their hands) that is later touched by another person. In this way the infection is carried to another. All it then needs is for the second person to touch their face near the mouth or nose or maybe the eyes and bingo: You've got it. Hence the recommendation to keep washing your hands particularly if you are in an area that is being touched by other people and, to quote a phrase, you don't know where they have been.

There are some pieces of information out there that are incorrect, mythical or unproven. We just don't know.

• The virus does not survive well in hot conditions. Nothing to support that claim as yet.
• Drinking water every fifteen minutes flushes the virus into the gastrointestinal tract where it can't survive. Completely unproven.
• Children are unaffected by the virus. They do seem to be generally less prone to it, but not completely immune.

I am sure there is more that can be added to all of the above so please don't be shy in coming forward. (Nothing in the preceding 58 pages to indicate there is any level of reticence. )

Regards
Paul

Edit: I should have added that another symptom (in conjunction with a dry cough and fever) is a sore throat. A further worrying aspect of the virus is how easily it is transmitted.

[BobL]

Some more cockups

Leaving the cruise sips to one side.

Scomo not willing to Offend DT?
Coronavirus circulating in the US in January, Australian travel ban too late

Medical people thinking they're exempt from Quarantine
'''They haven'''t listened''': Medical professionals skipped quarantine and flew interstate

Letting tones of PPE leave Australia prior to the epidemic
Coronavirus Australia: Chinese owned property developer Risland flies more than 82 tonnes of medical supplies to Wuhan
Don't blame the Chinese for this, WhereTF are our export authorities?

[doug3030]

Some more cockups ...

... Letting tones of PPE leave Australia prior to the epidemic
Coronavirus Australia: Chinese owned property developer Risland flies more than 82 tonnes of medical supplies to Wuhan
Don't blame the Chinese for this, WhereTF are our export authorities?

Anyone know how much of that was made in China in the first place?

[Fekit]

The virus is spread primarily (and as far as we know) by two means. The first is direct moisture particles from an infected person either by coughing or sneezing directly onto another person. The way to counteract this is to stay a distance away. 1.5m has been recommended. I suspect that to be absolutely safe it should be at least 3m.

The virus has an average size of about 100nm. That means the virus can be suspended in the atmosphere indefinitely. I imagine that any ejecta from a person would have a distribution on particle sizes ranging from around 100nm to booger sized. I'm not saying there would be heaps, just not none.

[GraemeCook]

SWMBO has been making some masks for kids and I asked for one with the same front design hoping it might persuade eedjets to steer clear.
Do I look suitably rabid/infected enough?
Attachment 470606

Add some spiral lenses to your spectacles and you will put the issue beyond doubt !

Spiral Spectacles.jpg

[GraemeCook]

Originally Posted by Lappa


Leased the Darwin Port - not sold

For 99 years - as good as sold really......

How long was the British lease on Hong Kong?

[Lappa]

If you live in NSW ......................

[doug3030]

How long was the British lease on Hong Kong?

Not long enough apparently