Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Bushmiller]

Just been trying to think through a risk assessment for storage of electricity from solar and wind sources.

Best available is hydro which can ramp up and ramp down very quickly with variances in the wind and sun light. But this is very limited because you need the right topography for a hydro dam.

Otherwise you essentially have three options:

1. Battery storage,
2. Pumped hydro, and
3. Exotics - hot sand storage, etc.

Battery storage is not yet cost effective, except in off-grid areas, so any analysis might conclude: "Good idea, but not yet - WAIT and monitor battery prices."

Pumped hydro has a very long lead time - 10 years ? from go decision to build dam and commission it. Risk is that within that period battery prices could plummet, either new technology or cheaper manufacturing - and the project could be superceded before it is completed. So any analysis might conclude: "Good idea, but not yet - WAIT and monitor battery prices."

Exotics - nothing is really out of the laboratory yet, but there can always be surprises.

As Malcolm said: "Life was not meant to be easy."

Graeme

Storage of electricity is the single most important aspect of power generation at the moment. It has easily, to my mind, surpassed the various renewable methods of generating: Solar, wind and all the others are almost old hat being able to be conceived, approved and commissioned in a very short space of time compared to almost anything else. I agree with your sumation of the storage state of play, but I would add hydrgen storage to that mix. It is a type of storage that both lends itself to renewable generation and can potentially be utilised in transport. I think more effort should be directed to the development of H2

On Malcolm's "Life was not meant to be easy" quote, while it often seems he was fundamentally right, he did plagiarise and slightly take the quote out of context from George Bernard Shaw who was the originator. I'm not sure when he said it, but Shaw died in 1950 so quite a long time before Malcolm re-gurgitated it in 1971.

The full quote is: "Life is not meant to be easy my child; but take courage: It can be delightful."

I wonder if Malcolm had a premonition about climate change.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Thanks, Paul, I think I now prefer Bernard Shaw's version.

I am a little more cautious on Hydrogen - possible, but not yet. Still major cost and safety hurdles to overcome.

Hydrogen has been used for 50+ years for underwater welding - just check the price of a cylinder of hydrogen vs acetylene, and you will know what sticker shock means.

[FenceFurniture]

Somewhere (maybe this thread) there was talk of Compressed Air storage as a battery. I'm reading efficiency rates of between 70-85% which sounds pretty good. That's comparable with Pumped Hydro isn't it?

Here's a search – take your pick of articles. CA is the preferred option for Broken Hill, as of May 2022.

[woodPixel]

Somewhere (maybe this thread) there was talk of Compressed Air storage as a battery. I'm reading efficiency rates of between 70-85% which sounds pretty good. That's comparable with Pumped Hydro isn't it?

Here's a search – take your pick of articles. CA is the preferred option for Broken Hill, as of May 2022.

Yes, CAES... I've been pumping it hard Nobody wants to listen.

Its FANTASTIC. I've two investments in Ireland and Scotland, both are going gangbusters.

There are so many advantages to CAES it isn't funny.

[Simplicity]

We may need too think off others as well.



Cheers Matt.

[Bushmiller]

We may need too think off others as well.



Cheers Matt.

Matt

Hence the phrase, "Left hanging!"

Regards
Paul

[russ57]

Did something happen in the generation market today, around 11.30? Prices went wild, then settled again by about 1.00
Something big went offline?
Update
This advice from my retailer.. Screenshot_20220810-201809_Amber Electric.jpg

[Bushmiller]

Did something happen in the generation market today, around 11.30? Prices went wild, then settled again by about 1.00
Something big went offline?
Update
This advice from my retailer.. Screenshot_20220810-201809_Amber Electric.jpg

Russ

I wasn't on shift at that time as I am on one of my long breaks, but as far as I can make out there was an exceptional excursion in the FCAS market ( Frequency Control Ancillary Services What is Frequency Control Ancillary Services? - Australian Renewable Energy Agency (arena.gov.au)), which is another commercial feature that receivies payment separately to MWs. A brief view looks as though it was costing some generators a lot of money, as in millions of dollars an hour, and they reduced their available capacity in a vain attempt to mitigate their loses. In turn this may have been responsible for a power shortage and a consequent high spot price.

Your retailler must purchase primarily on the spot market and are not hedged against sprice spikes with contracts. I don't pretend to understand the exact sequence of events that led to this, but I have never heard of it before: Just another anomally in this tumultuous times!

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

It seems the Federal government are getting behind wind:

Wind turbines almost twice size of the Sydney Harbour Bridge to be built off coast of Australia (msn.com)

No problem with that, but where are they going to store it? Without a storage facility, the daytime price will be cheaper and the night price more expensive with the "night period" effectively being about three times as long.

In the late 90s ahead of the competitive market the cry was "Price, Price and Price." Today we should be substituting "Storage, Storage and Storage."

Regards
Paul

[russ57]

Advice from supplier is that there was an error caused by aemo, and the price is now retrospectively corrected.
My supplier amber passes on the wholesale /spot price, with an annual cap equal to the default offer.
Until April this year it was working really well for me. Not so good after then but prices are slowly looking more normal.
A battery lets me avoid the spikes.

Regards
Russell

Russ

I wasn't on shift at that time as I am on one of my long breaks, but as far as I can make out there was an exceptional excursion in the FCAS market ( Frequency Control Ancillary Services What is Frequency Control Ancillary Services? - Australian Renewable Energy Agency (arena.gov.au)), which is another commercial feature that receivies payment separately to MWs. A brief view looks as though it was costing some generators a lot of money, as in millions of dollars an hour, and they reduced their available capacity in a vain attempt to mitigate their loses. In turn this may have been responsible for a power shortage and a consequent high spot price.

Your retailler must purchase primarily on the spot market and are not hedged against sprice spikes with contracts. I don't pretend to understand the exact sequence of events that led to this, but I have never heard of it before: Just another anomally in this tumultuous times!

Regards
Paul

Thanks Paul

[Optimark]

With regard to delivery efficiency, much has been said about the inability of the newish remote solar and wind farms to deliver electricity efficiently. I stumbled upon this interesting paragraph when looking at HWS replacement and their inherent efficiency in the scheme of things.

For what it's worth, we replaced our gas HWS with a heat pump unit manufactured in Japan, with the water container itself manufactured in the adjoining suburb. In fact, one of my brothers works there. Before you ask, I didn't get mates rates or anything like that.

This is the second last paragraph on page two of this 2010 report.

"Electricity is considered a high-grade energy source because its generation from fossil fuels for example, is usually accomplished at an efficiency of around 30%; it gets then transmitted and distributed at a further 80% to reach end-users at a final efficiency of 30x 80 % = 24 %. Transforming electricity back into heat, at an efficiency around 50 %,makes the final transforming efficiency from heat back into heat of 24 x 50 % = 12 %.Hence, it seems reasonable to consistently engage photovoltaic systems with solar water heaters capable to supply thermal demands, in order to make sure photovoltaic electricity is being used specifically for electrical loads"

The whole of the report can be seen here:

https://eprints.usq.edu.au/8937/1/Ka...lar2010_AV.pdf



This is a further couple of paragraphs, which from a home solar powered HWS make for interesting reading.


"While grid-connected photovoltaic systems provide the ability of feeding end-users and the electrical network with solar electricity, solar water heaters provide the ability of supplying and storing thermal energy for heating and cooling purposes, otherwise produced by electricity.

Although electricity is being typically used at present for heating water during low demand periods (at night), when electricity tariffs are low, solar water heaters are offering waiving considerable part of that demand at improved efficiencies and less environmental impact. The electrical capacity relieved could be directed to supply present peak demands at improved utilization factors, reduced energy prices and enhanced reliability."


Mick.

[Bushmiller]

Thanks Mick

That is all a bit demoralising. However in recent times I have become suspicious of statements that sound just a little too good or a little too bad and what aroused my suspicion this time is that although they quote a diaboloical end user efficiency, they did not seem to mention the efficiency of the panels . This leads the reader to jump to the conclusion that solar is much more efficient: It may be more efficient, but I went looking. Back in 2010 panel would have had an efficiency between 15% and 20%. Today, with improvements in technology, it could be better than 25%. This is still a worthwhile improvement on thermal generated electricity but not quite as good as the article led us to believe.

Also modern fossil fired stations since 2000 would have an efficiency of around 38%. It is only the old fossils that were back at 30%. Also that solar efficiency is under ideal conditions of sunlight, panel angle and material quality: Not all installations will meet that requirement. Some more information here:

Most Efficient Solar Panels: Solar Panel Efficiency Explained | EnergySage

Having said all that, we put in a conventional water heater quite a few years back and I kicked myself after for not going with a solar unit. What was I thinking? I wasn't .

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Here is a bit of skookum for you.

This bad girl (Christine) is the steam turbine of France's newest nuclear reactor.

70 meters long and it can produce enough electricity to power all of Paris - 1650MW

christine.jpg

[Chris Parks]

I too installed a heat pump HWS recently reasoning that it will draw from out solar panels during the day and be switched of at night. I have changed my thinking about solar this year, don't export it, use it all and if you can't use it all the system is too big. As an aside this is the 2nd heat pump we have had, we did have a Siddons many years ago, they were the original developers of the technology but these new ones are far better.

[GraemeCook]

... Having said all that, we put in a conventional water heater quite a few years back and I kicked myself after for not going with a solar unit. What was I thinking? I wasn't .

Regards
Paul

Back in the seventies we lived in an employer supplied house that had solar thermal water heaters on the roof - Rheem, I think. We thought they were the beeze knees, but about 15-20% of my colleagues hated them - they regularly ran out of hot water. The "solution" was to add electrical resistance coils to the storage tanks. Fairly cheap solution, and it worked, but electrical usage went through the roof.

The engineers were all "too busy" to work out the problem so it was passed onto muggins, the economist.

At first I was baffled. But the answer was surprisingly simple. During the day the sun shined and heated the water to a maximum just before sun set, then the storage tank cooled slowly overnight but generally still very warm to a minimum just after dawn, then the sun rose and the cycle repeated. Now, the bathroom is the biggest user of hot water in most homes and most people shower just before going to bed or when getting up. In a larger household this could cool the storage tank sufficiently to trigger the thermostat on the electric heater and the tank would get heated immediately. The solution for "problem" houses was to remove the electrical booster, to put in a third roof top panel and a larger storage tank and to add more insulation around all tanks. [Remember, we are talking 1970's technology and smart meters were not available.]