CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[FenceFurniture]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

[woodPixel]

People's stupidity is difficult to scientifically measure.

These blokes however, have had enough....

VIDEO ===> Tuckbot


Many different dialects in this one. Its amazing how dissimilar Italian can be.

[Glider]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

Not sure about the brains trust thing Brett but for what it's worth...On last night's Q&A, Prof. Paul Kelly (ANU) said that the average age of the 7 deceased was 86 and the youngest 77. Given that the infection rate is currently doubling every three days, it's inevitable that the mortality rate will increase until the latest brakes kick in, hopefully at a lesser rate. I suppose this'll take a couple of weeks due to the incubation period. I think it was Dr Norman Swan who predicted >50,000 infections by 10 April.

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

I'm fascinated by the changes in attitudes. The neo-conservatives are suddenly looking to their smaller governments for help rather than letting the market take care of everything and the climate deniers are all hanging onto the words of experts. I wonder if they've realised it yet.

mick

[Beardy]

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

mick

Is there an argument to be had here?
The doctors will do what they can do to the best of their ability / capacity and it is what it is from there. Just like they would do in times of war.

[Glider]

I don't think this thread is the best forum for an argument on medical ethics. Such difficult choices are rare in the medical profession but they do happen in the career of any doctors working in a hospital or hospice. Of course they do their best under the circumstances but it does knock them around. Spare a thought for them.

mick

[FenceFurniture]

...it does knock them around. Spare a thought for them..

Indeed Mick. Very disturbing images of Chinese doctors "snapping" a month or two back. PTSD for life I would say is the result for them after a crisis during which they have to make such awful choices.

[woodPixel]

The predicted demand for hospital beds raises an ethical dilemma for medicos whose job it will be to triage the patients. At one end of the argument some say it will result in compulsory euthanasia and the others claim it's pure pragmatism in the absence of alternatives.

I think medics face these dilemmas every day. They must reach a stage with every person where medicine, knowledge and machinery is either not good enough, pointless, futile or obscene.

Interestingly, for those inclined to Science Fiction, there is a show Im deliberately re-watching called Altered Carbon (Netflix). It explores these issues in rich and compelling detail. The sub-narrative is completely fascinating. I strongly recommend it.

I'm fascinated by the changes in attitudes. The neo-conservatives are suddenly looking to their smaller governments for help rather than letting the market take care of everything and the climate deniers are all hanging onto the words of experts. I wonder if they've realised it yet.

You are NOT WRONG!!!!!!!!!!

It went from :

-- the market knows and fixes all
-- hands-off government style
-- hands off our businesses
-- taxes are critical
-- unemployment benefits are Just Fine

To :

-- Bail Out the Big Boys: 125 BILLION EVERY DAY for eternity (USD$625 Billion a week!!!!) Unprecedented Intervention: The Fed Will Purchase $125 Billion In Securities Every Day | Zero Hedge
-- Micromanaged interventions and a strong totalitarian response
-- Telling each and every business what it must do
-- Taxes are now Out The Door
-- Unemployment benefits double


Its almost MAGICAL what shapes these Neo-Liberals can twist themselves into when it affects them personally.

The moral hazard is absolutely unreal. I've a thousand examples.

They are all morally bankrupt. Their ideals are simply formulated to enrich themselves. This disaster has exposed them for the complete hypocrites they are.

It reminds me of the Animal Farm --> "All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others."



(By the way, I dont disagree with societies response, simply the political pricks delivering it)

[BobL]

The death toll in Oz still stands at 7, even though the number of infections is doubling every 3 days. We have already established that death rate figures are complete bollocks because of the numerous flaws in testing. But a toll of 7 would seem to be quite outstanding wouldn't it? (although NZ has 0)

Why does our brains trust think that is the case, and is likely to spike quite soon?

The number of deaths will depend on things like, the ages of people that catch it, their existing health conditions and level, availability and quality of health care, and extent of testing and tracking. We've done OK on testing but maybe not so well on tracking.

So far the greatest proportion of cases in OZ have been travellers who tend to be younger and healthier which has probably kept the death rates down. Australia has a younger age profile than many other countries so all else being equal we should end up with a lower overall death rate (relative to total population not testing), if we don't, we have really screwed up. The Graphs shows not meany people over 70 have been infected.

Screen Shot 2020-03-24 at 7.45.51 am.png

Apart from a couple of cases a success story so far has been keeping COVID19 out of retirement villages and nursing homes although they should probably have gone into full lock down about 3 weeks ago. My Mums place only went yesterday. Mums got dementia but when my sister finally told her yesterday about the situation she seemed to take it in her stride, probably because she's had to cope with many hardships in her life.

Things went pear shaped in Italy once the number of ICU/ventilators were too small to cope with requirements. I don't know about other states but in WA, as of yesterday morning there were 140 cases, 1 death 1 recovered, 12 in ICU and 2 serious. This probably reflects the ages of those infected and that the ICUs are capable of handling these numbers.

This is a very simplified analysis but let's say the numbers increase by only a factor of 10 ie 1400 cases, 120 needing ICU with 20 serious cases. With only 100 ICU units currently in the state (supposedly another 100 on the way) things are going to get deadly. Given a factor of 10 is only about 2 weeks away then a full lock down and more deaths seems inevitable.

[FenceFurniture]

Just touching back to the original "empty shelves" theme: apparently food seeds and seedlings are now having a run on them here (Oz), but it's kinda the wrong time of year to start growing many things. In any case, I already have a supply of seeds (always do), and I'm going to build some plastic tents. Would appreciate any ideas in this thread:
Small individual greenhouses for my vege garden this winter - anyone with experience?

[BobL]

I too was thinking about the OP - I wonder how many members ever thought it would come down to where we are today in just 4 weeks when all we were worried about was empty tool shelves?

[GraemeCook]

Just touching back to the original "empty shelves" theme:...

I too was thinking about the OP - I wonder how many members ever thought it would come down to where we are today in just 4 weeks when all we were worried about was empty tool shelves?

As the OP, I was thinking the same thing a couple of minutes before you posted, Bob and FF. Who would have thought a thread on potential tool shortages would run to over 600 posts.

Sincere best wishes to everyone; be strong and compassionate.


Fair Winds

Graeme


PS: Does anyone know if Bunnings or M10 are still open? Does anyone care?

[woodPixel]

Removed as it wasn't particularly relevant.

[BobL]

A mobile phone is life. It is payment. It is your ID. It is your passport. Its is the ONLY thing that gets you things. It is everything. People would rather pay their $20 monthly mobile fee than FEED their own children if the choice were forced. They would use their very last $20 to pay that $20 bill.

There are three mobile carriers in China.

In January and February there have been 8.25 million disconnections, or "non continuances".

I've seen the hysterical twit feeds on this and there are lots of explanations. One is that many Chinese mobile phones are supplied by workplaces - no work - no phone. Censorship ie removal and shut down by authorities, because just like westerners they like to gossip. Maybe some Chinese finally realised they were being tracked, and valued their privacy or likelihood of being forcibly quarantined or jailed, over the value of their mobile.

[GraemeCook]

Kiwi friend emailed me yesterday:

"... Jacinda Adern has just announced Level 3.....all non essential businesses must close, we must stay away from all outside public places, playgrounds etc. all schools are closing as of tomorrow....apart from children of essential workers who have 48 hours to arrange alternative arrangements.

In 48 hours (midnight from Wednesday) we are Level 4.... everyone is in lockdown, everyone must stay at home, for 4 weeks!!!!! Supermarkets, Pharmacies, medical services remain open.

NZ is trying to save thousands of lives, (the consequences if we don’t) ..."

[doug3030]