CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[ian]

Just heard through the grapevine, so take it for what it’s worth, that NSW is not only shutting down non essentials but also shutting down ALL schools.
Guess we’ll find out more tomorrow.

bit more formal than the grapevine NSW, Victoria move to comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services amid coronavirus pandemic - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The NSW and Victorian Governments will proceed to a more comprehensive shutdown of non-essential services over the next 48 hours in attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus.

Supermarkets, petrol stations, pharmacies, convenience stores, freight and logistics, and home delivery will be among the many services that will remain open.
Schools in both states will also be open on Monday, but in Victoria school holidays will be brought forward to start on Tuesday.
Both Victoria and NSW were planning to push for lock downs at tonight's National Cabinet meeting, but NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews made clear that their states would be pursuing these more drastic measures.

Key points:

• The shutdowns in Victoria and NSW will not effect supermarkets, pharmacies and banks
• Victoria will bring forward school holidays to begin on Tuesday
• The Government will also consider locking down COVID-19 "red zones", as has been done in Wuhan and parts of Europe

Looks like NSW and Victoria are finally getting their "act" together.
BTW, I now expect that NSW schools will be closed from Wednesday at the latest. Three weeks earlier than scheduled.

[Bushmiller]

My impression is that the government's resistance to shutting the schools is primarily based on economics and logistics. By that I mean that with so many families having two working parents, there was supposedly nobody at home to look after them. This might not be so true as the nation is progressively encouraged to work from home where possible or one parent is stood down. It was also a rather weak and futile attempt to keep the economy rolling.

Certainly the reasoning does not really stack up compared to the actions in other comparable countries. Apart from the clearly invidious predicament in which it places teachers, it may be that children are carriers without displaying noticeable symptoms. If this were the case it would cause a very significant escalation of the chance of infection. It would be like releasing a bomb of the virus onto an unsuspecting adult public.

Just as an aside, I was introduced to a neighbour today and immediately shook hands. Such is the force of habit and I did not even realise what I had done until after he had left.

Regards
Paul

[RossM]

OK here we are 3 days further on again, and we are "bang on target" with 1200 and something cases.
What this means is the changes made 2 weeks ago made SFA difference

Again, changes made TODAY (not next Tuesday) will take about 2 weeks to see any effects , so by then we will be at ~38000 cases.
Only when the doubling rate starts to increase will we know if we have any sort of a handle on this this.

We've been lucky with deaths but that's likely to change dramatically especially if we get into "medical over run" territory.

It reminds me of a couple of dudes driving down a high way at 100 kph with an open pizza between the front seats. Not far down the road there's an explosion and a fire ball erupts. The choice is stomp on the brakes, let the open pizza meet is fate on the floor of the car, and check it out from a distance, or tap lightly on the brake and hope to stop in time before they all entering the fireball.

[EDIT]
Finally it looks like some of the states are doing something bit more drastic.
But ideally it should have been done a couple of weeks ago

Not to downplay any of this (and I agree, a lot should have been done a lot sooner - look at Taiwan for a stellar example of how to get on top of this sort of thing and minimise the spread of the disease).

However, the stats are very scant on detail & are really being misreported, or maybe that's misrepresented.

Rate of detection is NOT likely to be the same as rate of infection. As the testing ramps up the number of reported infections will rise. We just don't know what the level of infection was in the country before testing started. So numbers infected are likely to be higher than the reported cases (as we have not tested everyone) but the rate of spread could well be slower than the reported stats indicate. (Of course it could be higher) I have not seem any figures of the number of tests actually carried out, and what sampling techniques were used. I suspect that the population samples are biased toward those at risk (e.g. travellers who were at high risk of being infected) or those with symptoms. If so this will skew results lead to a perception of higher that actual rates.

Then we have the political vested interests - who actually believes Kim Jon-Un and assertions of the lack of infections in DPRK, or the figures coming out of Iran, or even the recent figures from China?

Statistical biases seem to be running unchecked, and people (particularly media) seem to be too intent on drawing sweeping conclusions from insufficient data.

[FenceFurniture]

who actually believes Kim Jon-Un and assertions of the lack of infections in DPRK, or the figures coming out of Iran, or even the recent figures from China?

No, don't believe any of the three, but I would think that China would be right in there helping DPRK given that they have workers going in to China.

Just as an aside, I was introduced to a neighbour today and immediately shook hands. Such is the force of habit and I did not even realise what I had done until after he had left.

Well I certainly hope you didn't do this =>

[woodPixel]

I am facetious. Yeah that means "cracking a joke when TSHTF".... its serious, but you have to have a laugh.

... screen grabs off Reddit today


Screenshot_2020-03-22 kl2x2cg270o41 jpg (WEBP Image, 640 × 344 pixels).png

Screenshot_2020-03-22 r Sino.png

[Lappa]

Ian.
The earlier talk from Gladys (news reports about 2:30pm) was she was considering the closing down of schools in ”hot zones”, not a total close down of schools State wide.
I’ll wait for her to actually say it, or receive an email from my manager, before I believe any news source.
Hence my “ for what it’s worth” statement.

[BobL]

Not to downplay any of this (and I agree, a lot should have been done a lot sooner - look at Taiwan for a stellar example of how to get on top of this sort of thing and minimise the spread of the disease). However, the stats are very scant on detail & are really being misreported, or maybe that's misrepresented.Rate of detection is NOT likely to be the same as rate of infection. As the testing ramps up the number of reported infections will rise. We just don't know what the level of infection was in the country before testing started. So numbers infected are likely to be higher than the reported cases (as we have not tested everyone) but the rate of spread could well be slower than the reported stats indicate. (Of course it could be higher) I have not seem any figures of the number of tests actually carried out, and what sampling techniques were used.

Some testing data here How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? - Our World in Data

Australia is third in the world for tests per million people (4400, 0.4%) Korea has 0.6% but they have much better tracking than most other countries I'm not particularly concerned if its 50% or even 2X slower or faster, whatever it is it's too fast for ordinary committee speed decision making.

The only place where the entire population of a sealed off town/community has been continually monitored is the Italian/venetian Town of Vo with about 3000 people. A complete survey a few weeks back found 3% were infected and thus isolated. A second round of testing found 0.4% infected and those where then isolated. The third round found 0.1% infected and isolated. They believe they now have everyone affected in quarantine. It's now called the safest town in Italy.

[woodPixel]

Triped over this just now.

It may be useful - Deaconess - How to make a Face Mask

[BobL]

Triped over this just now.

It may be useful - Deaconess - How to make a Face Mask

The pattern as is similar to what SWMBO is following.

Here is an example SWMBO whipped up this morning.
IMG_4301.jpg

She can't sew more than one at a time much as she has really bad vertigo (she's had it for 6 weeks, can't you see the stunned mullet look on her face) and has to have a lie down in between making each mask

My contribution was to cut the thin Al strips for the nose bridge.

These elastic SWMBO has used on these masks don't work on me as my ears are like our younger Border Collies ears ie too floppy!
So she has made me a custom mask with softer elastic that doesn't pull past my ears.

I also have an almost full box of medical masks we bought 6 months ago for cleaning out the MILs plACE.

Things must be pretty grim as the Governor of New York has appealed to the public for any available face masks for use by state medical staff.

[rwbuild]

My prediction is schools will close next week.
On a lighter note and apologies to Slim Dusty,...."The pub has plenty beer but no drinkers"

[BobL]

Certainly the reasoning does not really stack up compared to the actions in other comparable countries. Apart from the clearly invidious predicament in which it places teachers, it may be that children are carriers without displaying noticeable symptoms. If this were the case it would cause a very significant escalation of the chance of infection. It would be like releasing a bomb of the virus onto an unsuspecting adult public.

Talking about bombs waiting to go off try this one.

My DIL is an instrumental music teacher in a primary school - instruments of particular concern are brass/woodwind which like all instruments the kids have to share across classes. ie copious loads of body fluids involved. She is terrified about this and has been told in no uncertain terms that she has to continue carrying out the designated term program until told otherwise. With careful use she's been going through about 2L of cleaner spray and a litre of hand sanitizer a week and is about to run out of sanitizer but there is no more available. My son made a litre today but that won't last long and the school holidays here in WA are 3 weeks away.

As for the other PMs decisions, again, too little, too late, too slow.
Hunker down folks it's going to be a rough ride.

[BobL]

My prediction is schools will close next week.

Interesting possibly even sensible move by GB in NSW
NSW schools stay open but parents urged to keep children at home to contain spread of coronavirus - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Meanwhile here's an Italian Mayor offloading - keep watching to see how frustrated he gets.


Don't laugh too hard our fellow citizens are no better, witness Bondi on the weekend.
There's an even more emphatic and expletive ladened video appeal by a bunch of Italian mayors on Twitter but it probably wouldn't pass the forum censors so decided not to post it here.

[Tccp123]

Meanwhile here's an Italian Mayor offloading - keep watching to see how frustrated he gets.

Brilliant. Italian is the perfect language for this rant.

[woodPixel]

Here is my daughter going to work (she is a mental health care person (psych and physical)).....

This street is packed by 8am.

Sponging public servants clag the local suburbs all day rather than pay $3 for parking.

Today... nobody.

Day One and they are all off. This is a group that doesn't need to be told twice!

Now MyGov has crashed.

We are off to a gooooooddddd start Australia.....

90958534_222040425544935_2526145823289376768_n.jpg

[BobL]

Brilliant. Italian is the perfect language for this rant.

Yep - maybe not nearly enough hand movements and gestures - he must be a northern Italian