Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Bushmiller]

Practising for retirement is really hard work but someone has to do it.

Chris

I and my job sharer colleague are the first people in the operations section to go down this path, which has previously only been the domain of the admin dept (and only female). As such it is a trial, but another two from operations are due to commence the same work practice in July: So far so good. As far as hard work is concerned I plead the 5th, although I have to say the projects assigned to me at home seem to have escalated.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I was going to say earlier that you probably have some kind of handle on how cloudy the last 5-6 months have been (although you fared a little better with cloud coverage than up here). What do your stats say about solar electricity generation?

Brett

Solar (commercially) typically is sited in the most sunny regions just as wind is sited in the windy spots. I imagine there are very few solar farms up on your mountain. I imagine that, apart form rooftop solar, there are few solar farms in the Blue Mountains. The problem then arises to transmit the electricity from one region to another.

This leads me to pose another question and that is how the existing thermal stations themselves will transition from their traditional method of producing electricity? They have all the infrastructure (power lines and transformers) existing. Will they gradually go solar or wind? The recent Cannon Brookes bid for AGL looked very much as though it was to acquire the infrastructure as much as the stations themselves. Trouble is that the thermal stations in recent years were positioned close to their fuel supplies and not for their suitability for wind or solar energy.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Also, at the time of the excursion -- late September 2016 -- the management expectation at Pelican Point would have been that the gas turbine wouldn't need to be available to supply electricity till late December that year, if at all over that summer. So "no gas supply contract" could mean what it says -- there was no contract in place in September because it was anticipated that the plant would not need to be available for switching on (gas supply line pressurised and gas supply contract (based either on the future spot market or a take-or-pay basis) for at least 3 months.

ian

Our information in the industry was that Pelican Point had been running their two units consistently at half load. For that reason they had deemed it more efficient to run a single unit at or near full load. Consequently the other unit was mothballed and effectively unavailable.

I don't know the breakdown of costs but usually, fuel is the largest single component.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

Solar (commercially) typically is sited in the most sunny regions just as wind is sited in the windy spots. I imagine there are very few solar farms up on your mountain. I imagine that, apart form rooftop solar, there are few solar farms in the Blue Mountains.

I was thinking only of how it affects rooftop solar. I don't see that is not being part of the mix.

Just for one thing, and as ugly a thought as it might be, having all your energy generation across millions of sites (homes) grossly mitigates the chances of knocking out a country's electrical energy supplies in the event of war. I think our current Defence Minister would agree that it would be good preparation for the future.

[ian]

I am not clear on your comments regarding charging batteries from fossil fuelled stations as that would be counterproductive.

Paul

I wasn't sufficiently clear in my previous post.
I didn't mean to imply that electricity storage (grid scale batteries, pumped hydro, and similar) should be energised by fossil fuelled stations.


I meant to imply that using Li-ion technology, or other batteries, for storing electricity won't cut it when it comes to grid scale systems.
At seven times current electricity usage, the storage requirement becomes about 10,000 gigawatt hours.


There's over 20 million registered motor vehicles in Australia.
Assuming all these vehicles are converted to electric power -- a big ask for any vehicle that regularly needs to travel more than about 200 km per day -- the available battery materials will be fully utilised just powering motor vehicles, with very little battery material left over for energy storage.



Me thinks it maybe time for three or four transcontinental (Perth to Eastern state) DC interconnectors.
To supply solar power from WA to the Eastern states which, in solar terms, have their evening peak periods offset by 2 hours.
So WA can be feeding "clean" power to NSW, Victoria and Qld during the evening while the "sand gropers" are still at work.

[FenceFurniture]

Me thinks it maybe time for three or four transcontinental (Perth to Eastern state) DC interconnectors.
To supply solar power from WA to the Eastern states which, in solar terms, have their evening peak periods offset by 2 hours.

IIRC this was discussed in t'other thread a year or so back, and was dismissed as as way too costly, and with that sort of money ($5 Bills per connector??) we could achieve better results with other tech, or investing in other tech research.

[Bushmiller]

Paul

I wasn't sufficiently clear in my previous post.
I didn't mean to imply that electricity storage (grid scale batteries, pumped hydro, and similar) should be energised by fossil fuelled stations.


I meant to imply that using Li-ion technology, or other batteries, for storing electricity won't cut it when it comes to grid scale systems.
At seven times current electricity usage, the storage requirement becomes about 10,000 gigawatt hours.


There's over 20 million registered motor vehicles in Australia.
Assuming all these vehicles are converted to electric power -- a big ask for any vehicle that regularly needs to travel more than about 200 km per day -- the available battery materials will be fully utilised just powering motor vehicles, with very little battery material left over for energy storage.



Me thinks it maybe time for three or four transcontinental (Perth to Eastern state) DC interconnectors.
To supply solar power from WA to the Eastern states which, in solar terms, have their evening peak periods offset by 2 hours.
So WA can be feeding "clean" power to NSW, Victoria and Qld during the evening while the "sand gropers" are still at work.

Ian

Yes, I misunderstood your previous reference. I have to say I don't know where energy storage is going to come from and I agree that batteries are going to be severely stretched: There will have to be something else for energy storage.

A DC link from WA to the East Coast is going to suffer huge transmission losses over nearly 3500Km not to mention the cost of the link and booster substations. Although talk of DC Links between Darwin and Indonesia , have been bandied around, all they have been is "bandied" around and I can't see much traction there at this time. Having said that, if the DC line was there is would provide the facility to feed into that line from desert based solar, or other, power sources along the way.

Hmmm.... food for thought.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Some really good thoughts above. Its excellent there are several insiders to provide insight.


My thoughts on Hydrogen are:

-- One doesn't need to transport it
-- It is made/generated in a place, then stored in that same place

At the source of energy:
-- Solar/wind farms obviously carry their loads during the peaks, yes?
-- So, if those renewable farms generate too much power, or the price is inequitable, they use the excess/cheap energy to generate hydrogen and store it on site
-- When the wind don't blow, nor the sun don't shine, or its night, or the electricity wholesale rate blows up, they use the stored H in their Magic Machines to pump out electrons.
-- Maybe this can also be used as an onsite delivery-leveller for variable weather days?

IF those solar/winds have grids connected up, which they would, as its WHY they are there, and so do the cities/places that use it.... why not generate the H within the city and store it there too?

At the source of the users:
-- The power already is already being delivered, yes?
-- Hindenburg, you say... but how is that worse than any other volatile substance we use now?
-- In fact, there will be no natural gas pipes, or petrol pipelines, or H-pipes or trucks.... the only infrastructure required will be electricity cables


Makes me think, is there an opportunity to use this like a Tesla Home Battery but a hydrogen store at home? No worse than a big BBQ bottle...

-- Suck in cheap electricity at night, generate H
-- use the H to power the home during the day


Everyone is hung up on the amount of power transmission is needed. Is this really the case though?

-- If the current system at its peak can handle a current PEAK volume, can it sustain that peak 24 hours a day? Or does it need to "rest" (IDK, cool down, or it buns out?)
-- So if we keep the whole system revving along at 80% all the time rather than 100% day 5% at 3am.....
-- Could this system then "transfer" H stored in one place, convert to electrons, pump via the wires, make H in "somewhere else"... (yeah, yeah, conversion efficiencies, etc, but lets ignore that)
-- all acting as some sort of self-levelling system?
-- e.g. if we know that Brisbane is going to need a lot of juice due to an oncoming heatwave, we pre-send a sheet-ton of electrons up there where its pre-stored a week or 3 before Brissy melts? (just like any natural gas, or fuel depot)


Its a bit like leaving the hose on overnight isn't it? By itself its pretty pathetic, but overnight it can certainly help fill a pool.

Will we ever get to a point where we will have too much H stored?


Obviously I'm just throwing around ideas and know little of the realities.

BTW, I think H cars are a bad idea. Electrification is the key.

[Beardy]

Mirai 2021 | Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle | Toyota AU

[woodPixel]

Well, my ranting and raving are for naught - my ideas are hardly novel!

A quick DuckDuckGo shows there are PLENTY of H2 generators and H-to-e power units!

H2 Energy Offers Affordable Hydrogen Generator For Home Use - The Green Optimistic

1kWh of electricity can be produced at a cost of 3 to 10 cents and 1kilogram of H2 (1 gallon of gas equivalent) costs about $1. A car can drive 60 miles on 1 kilogram of H2.

Edit - this is cool - these "petrol stations" make the Hydrogen onsite. There is even one in Canberra.... Australia 's third hydrogen-car refuelling station to open in Brisbane - Hydrogen Central

[Chris Parks]

BTW, I think H cars are a bad idea. Electrification is the key.

Tell BMW, Toyota and Honda they are wrong. It is amazing that ALL the Japanese manufacturers have ignored the changes being forced on the automotive industry by legislation world wide perhaps because the Japanese Government seem to have ignored it also. There is some speculation that Mazda may not survive the changes because they seem to have completely ignored the move to BEV's except for one half hearted attempt which seems to be a total failure. It is all a bit strange as Toyota and Honda led the world with their hybrid models years ago.

[woodPixel]

I took a good look at hydrogen cars today.

There is not much more to them than a regular electric car.

There is a storage tank, a Hydrogen membrane to convert it to electrons, then to shove energy into the battery. Otherwise it's all fairly standard electric.

Which is interesting, for if one could charge the thing like a regular electric car, the Hydro addition is nothing more than a Just-in-case or a distance elongator.

So, as a novelty it's interesting, but a good charging infrastructure makes it a bit redundant. Useful for long trips though! (Ahem, Australia!)

Which sort of adds to the question of whether one could rip that hydro out after a prang and reverse it into other purposes... Eg a. Generator for a farm, etc....

[havabeer69]

re hydrogen transport and storage: hydrogen its self doesn't burn, its that pesky oxygen that screws everything up.

keep the purity 99.9% and everything is fine, that and use beryllium tools when working near the stuff (non sparking)

[Bushmiller]

Hydrogen tends to generate fear into the imagination of the populace in general and I think in no small degree the Hindenburg tragedy is primarily responsible for this. Historical images of the giant airship catching fire are burnt ( ) into the fleshy tablets of our minds.

However, in the power industry we have used hydrogen for at least the last fifty years as the cooling medium for the rotors in our generators. As haveabeer has pointed out, it needs oxygen (from air) to be a combustible gas. There is an UEL (upper explosive limit) and a LEL (lower explosive limit). The LEL is about 4% of H2 in air, while the UEL is 75% of H2 in air. In the power stations we are very careful to make sure these limits are adhered to. The only time our hydrogen could be outside these ranges is when we are either purging or refilling the generator. In fact even then we do not allow this to happen as purging of hydrogen is done with CO2 first before introducing air or when refilling the air is first purged with CO2 before introducing hydrogen.

I don't think hydrogen will be burnt in cars: It will be the fuel cell technology, which is significantly different and potentially much safer....I think. Some information here:

Fuel Cell Basics | Department of Energy

For the sensationalist seekers among you some more information on the explosive nature of H2:

Hydrogen Explosion - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

Regards
Paul

PS: The beryllium tools mentioned by haveabeer are very sexy looking (pretty much look like brass, but are a little harder), not as robust as steel and very expensive.

[FenceFurniture]

PS: The beryllium tools mentioned by haveabeer are very sexy looking (pretty much look like brass, but are a little harder), not as robust as steel and very expensive.

The drivers (speakers) in my headphones are beryllium – so thin that it floats down like a feather (demo in a video)