CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

Back on track...

Did I read correctly today that we have had only six deaths in Australia? That's less than 1%?

Correct, Lots of countries have about the same number of cases but even less deaths.
eg Norway 1400/3 , Canada 560/1, Portugal 642/2
Low death rates calculated today are a result of deaths usually occurring about 2 weeks after infections.
So of the 300 new infections that are detected in the last 3 days those that will die from this will happen in about 2 weeks time.

To get a better indication we should be dividing total deaths today, by infection rate about two weeks ago which was only 66 infections - not looking so good now eh!

And as soon as you run out of ventilators, for serious case it takes off and its less than a week till death.

[Tccp123]

Correct, Lots of countries have ABOUT the same number of cases and even less deaths.
This is because deaths usually occur about 2 weeks after infections.
eg Norway 1400/3 , Canada 560/1, Portugal 642/2

And as soon as you run out of ventilators, for serious case it takes off and its less than a week till death.

So when do you estimate we'll see some serious numbers of deaths? Two weeks time?

[BobL]

So when do you estimate we'll see some serious numbers of deaths? Two weeks time?

Depends what you means by serious,
Germany had 349 cases 14 days ago and now have 13 deaths total ie death rate of. ~3%
if the "real" death rate is 3%, (like Germany) then in two weeks we should be seeing ~18 deaths a day.

Two weeks ago Australia had 66 infectees and today we have 5 deaths - that's a rate of 7.5% - ie not so good.

The numbers for Italy are scary weird - 2 weeks ago they only had 3100 infected and today have total of nearly 3000 deaths, that's a theoretic death rate of almost 100%
What this probably means is that a) they have not measured the real infections rates any where close to reality and b) they have run out of ventilators and are unfortunately leaving people over 60 to die. This means they die in a few days so the numbers that die greatly increases.
What we should be doing to get a death rate is comparing with numbers of infectees maybe 5 days ago, its still a high death rate.

Death rates strongly depends how well we can keep it out of nursing homes and retirement villages.
In Italy a lot of seniors live at home with their families
This is why I think it is completely daft for Aussie seniors to be going shopping en masse for sunny rolls like they have been.
And why seniors villages should be locked down now - my doc says seniors (like me) can live on very little food and could benefit from losing a bit of weight

Please note I am not an expert epidemilologist - these are just my interpretations of the numbers.

[FenceFurniture]

As has been mentioned before, comparing, and even trying to calculate death rates is an extremely imprecise science. The number of deaths can certainly be ascertained. The number of infections is a completely rubbery set of figures with way too many holes in it for accuracy - starting with how honest the reporting of the country is (Iran, Russia, probably China) and then going out into all the furry stuff like how many test kits are available, do the kits work properly, age of population, where they live as old people (as Bob referred to) and so on and so forth.

Especially in these relatively early days it is pretty pointless trying to extrapolate how many deaths we will see here.

[BobL]

As has been mentioned before, comparing, and even trying to calculate death rates is an extremely imprecise science. The number of deaths can certainly be ascertained. The number of infections is a completely rubbery set of figures with way too many holes in it for accuracy - starting with how honest the reporting of the country is (Iran, Russia, probably China) and then going out into all the furry stuff like how many test kits are available, do the kits work properly, age of population, where they live as old people (as Bob referred to) and so on and so forth. .

I agree and is probably why the South Korean rate is so low. Remember they peaked nearly 3 weeks ago. They tested lots of people so probably have the most reliable numbers of infections. Two weeks ago they had a total of 5800 infected and today have 84 deaths so 1.6% death rate. But the also went into lock down early and did a lot more testing and tracking than anyone else except perhaps Singapore who currently have 313 infected and no deaths.

The US have got serious issues - two weeks go they only had 150 reported cases and today they have close to 100 deaths. The deaths are real so this is almost certain classic underreporting of infects. If the "real death rate is ~3% then when 2 weeks ago when they thought they had 150 infects they probably had closer to 3000! Working forwards with a 3 day doubling then today when they think they have 7000 infects they really have ~48000! They know all this and is why certain US cities are going into lockdown.

But all very rubbery!

[FenceFurniture]

I would say that the biggest contributor to the rubber is the number of undiagnosed cases where people have no symptoms at all - so don't get tested or counted as a stat. I'll wager that might just be the vast majority of cases.

[FenceFurniture]

The US have got serious issues

Well yes, but that's hardly anything new! They've had serious issues for decades if not hundreds of years, but things got REALLY serious in November 2016, and superserious (and supercilious) From Jan 20th 2017.

[ian]

The quality of our society in these times will be judged by how well we treat those less fortunate than ourselves.

so so true

[Lappa]

Interesting article on South Korea’s response to the virus.

They DID NOT lock down which is interesting

South Korea's coronavirus lessons: Quick, easy tests; monitoring | News | Al Jazeera

The interesting part for me was, apart from the mass testing and the regular updates by SMS, was the fact they GPS tracked people who where supposed to be self isolating.

I always wondered how many travellers, coming to Australia or returning, actually self isolated for 2 weeks.

[Bushmiller]

Not good news this morning. US infections have escalated with DT doing an about face now calling Covid-19 the Chinese flu instead of praising their actions as he did a while ago.Does this mean he has two feces (sorry that should read two faces). Australia's infection rate has done a dramatic jump.

I heard Norman Swan on Radio National yesterday and he had an interesting take on the biphasing aspect (re-infection). He thought that the instances may not be correct and in fact may be the result of incorrect testing resulting in a false negative at the end of the illness. Let's hope he is right as it is a faint glimmer of good news in a sea of despair.

Stay healthy.

Regards
Paul

[Lappa]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!

[Lappa]

I have had two situations this week which are a direct result of the virus.

We have disposable gloves for the students and staff at work. We put an order in for more plus hand sanitiser on Monday.
Rang up to check the order. Both items are in short supply (obviously) - 3 to 4 weeks minimum and probably 8 weeks or more.

my SIL had a bus driver traineeship with State Transit in Sydney. A two year traineeship with full time work and he would get a Cert III at the end. 20 months in, Light Rail was nearing completion and he and the other 20 trainees were put off. Couldn’t find another job in Sydney driving buses or trucks - he applied for every job that came up but they were few and far between.
He found a job in Newcastle driving buses, casual, so he and my daughter packed their bags and moved up. He was getting about 30 hours a week and my daughter got a job in a flower distribution centre - all good. Casual work started to get less (school holidays, less winery tours, less weddings) and the hours dropped dramatically. He found another job with a large bus company. Still casual but 35 hours a week. Loves it.
Daughter’s job now starts to get reduced hours due to flower sales rapidly dropping. Work drops to two and then one day a week if that. Large weddings now small, large corporate events called off due to crowd number restrictions.
SIL gets the call on Thursday - bus company is going to skeleton staff as passenger numbers have dropped dramatically as events, old folks outings etc. etc have been cancelled. “Go home and wait for a phone call”


Interesting times.

[BobL]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!

I first hear DT call COVID19 the "Chinese Virus" back in early Feb, then for a while he praised China for doing a good job, now it's out of control in the US he's back to China blame. Inconsistency? what else would we expect from him.

Korea didn't lock down but they did limit people movement between some regions. Their real smart moves were mass testing, public awareness and sophisticated tracking from the outset. Taiwan which had daily direct flights direct from Wuhan only has 100 cases. We don't hear about much about them, especially the;

technologically intrusive surveillance-state aspects of Taiwan’s response—notably, its real-time integration of national health care databases with customs and travel records and its use of government-issued cell phones to remotely monitor quarantine orders—we keep seeing the culturally embedded assumption that East Asian-style state social control just won’t fly in the good old, individualist, government-wary, freedom-loving United States.

Taiwan Is Beating the Coronavirus. Can the US Do the Same? | WIRED

Interesting comparison between the organised, educated response of the Taiwan and the US (lets go buy some guns) in that article.

Final paragraph

If there is any silver lining here, it’s that the disaster now upon us is of such immense scope that it could finally expose the folly of the structural forces that have been wreaking sustained havoc on American governmental institutions. So maybe we are finally about to learn that competence matters, that educated leaders are a virtue, and that telling the truth is a responsibility.

[FenceFurniture]

Not trying to defend DT ( that would not be an easy task) , but apparently he only started calling it the Chinese flu after a high official in China accused US soldiers of spreading the virus from China to the world.. very childish but that DT!

Well I reckon that the Chinese DID invent the virus, and for the benefit of the world. The Impeachment failed because the Publicans have got no ticker (as it was always going to), so the next best way to rid the world of DT is to prove his incompetence once and for all beyond anyone's doubt - put out a pandemic.

With a bit of luck it will make him 100% unre-electable.




(Black face and Brown face are not acceptable, but I would dearly love to see Biden wearing Orange Face with White Eyes to the first debate in September)

[Tccp123]

I've read a number of articles this morning purporting to quote Italian government studies that show 99% of the fatalities in italy have been "old" (average age 79.5) people with pre-existing medical conditions (serious chronic diseases). While this isn't necessarily good news for "us" (many of whom might fall into this category) it's certainly encouraging for the rest of the population and the situation as a whole.

I know the Internet is awash with BS but it would be nice to think this one is true.