COVID 19 Hysteria

[A Duke]

Hi,
The Sears Roebucks catalogue could become popular again.

[BobL]

Hi,
The Sears Roebucks catalogue could become popular again.

With SWMBO suffering from vertigo and not driving and my broken ankle we’ve been using online grocery shopping. The young fellow that delivered our groceries yesterday said they will need to double their staff to cope with increase in orders. No TP or baked beans though. Not worried about baked beans as have plenty of dry beans and can make our own, or maybe not!

[woodPixel]

We'll need to be careful of fake news and pranksters. But this looks like a thing to contemplate about the state of imports....

This is a video shot by one trucker at a loading wharf in the USA. Location unknown as yet. It is *empty*.

Link picked up on Reddit on r/Wuhan_Flu (a disreputable sub of scum and villainy, but strangely "truthy". One needs a good BS filter)

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=sAooT_1583234498

[BobL]

It’s the same with the seafood exports from Oz. Still hasn’t translated into lower prices here though. With this broken ankle I not worried about many shed things ATM. Even when it’s healed it’s gonna take me ages to get through the honey do list.

[rustynail]

What we need is the Government to put together a crack team and stop just wiping the mess to the side.

[A Duke]

Hi,
Is toilet paper imported?
The CEO of Woollies put out an apology for the shortages and gave a list of the Factories on double production of bumf and they were all Australian.
The poo of the male moo gets deeper and deeper.
Regards

[Lappa]

The Media talk about the stupidity of herd behaviour on one side of the front page then have a huge headline in the other side saying that “96000 Australians will die” Gee I wonder who is responsible for this panic buying?
We dont use a lot of TP. 18 months on high strength Antibiotics and my bowel is trained and tuned to perfection
We were down to the last two rolls yesterday, so after our Thursday night ritual at the food court (great dumplings) we went looking for TP. Coles was empty . Woolies shelves were empty but they had two pallets at the front loaded with TP. Sign said “4 per person”. So here is a so called family of 6 (all looked about 70 with masks on ) with 2 lots each. Wonder if they will be shipping them OS like milk powder?

[riverbuilder]

They know more than we know that’s for certain.

[BobL]

Hi,
Is toilet paper imported?
The CEO of Woollies put out an apology for the shortages and gave a list of the Factories on double production of bumf and they were all Australian.
The poo of the male moo gets deeper and deeper.
Regards

According to the ABC news its made in 3 places around OZ. The big Kimberley Clark factory in SA is apparently working 24/7 to restock supermarket shelves.

[BobL]

The Media talk about the stupidity of herd behaviour on one side of the front page then have a huge headline in the other side saying that “96000 Australians will die”

When I did my first back of the envelope calculation back on SUNDAY I got 125,000!

This comes from if 25% of Aussies get it, and 2% of those die then its 25,000,000 x 0.25 *0.02.

However, it's more nuanced that that.

Most people wouldn't know that about 160,000 Aussies a year currently die anyway and 89% of these (142,000) are above 60

Likewise COVID19 preferentially kills off older people especially those with existing medical conditions and many of were going to die anyway.
So for back of the envelope calcs its easier to stick to those over 60 as that's where 92% of the COVID19 deaths are currently.

The numbers that will die again depend on; those who catch it and the ageVdeathrate profile

If everyone above 60 catches it, based on the current death rate for COVID19 across the age profile I worked out 358,000 people will die

A 50% catch rate will result in 179000 deaths and 25% catch rate will be 89500 deaths - I reckon that's where the 96,000 number comes from.

More nuancing, people above 80 are going to be more likely to catch it, those between 70-80 will be less likely to catch it etc
As there are fewer people in the higher age ranges the deaths rates should be lower than this.

Lets look at the sane 25% catch rates for all ages ranges causing the 89500 deaths above 60.
Remember 142000 people above 60 were going to die any way.
Then it comes down to the cross over between the 142,000 who were going to die anyway and the 89500 who die from COVID19
This number has been estimated at 75%!! so thats additional deaths of 25% of 89500 = 22,400 ADDITIONAL Deaths from COVID for people above 60

Still too many in my book and why reducing spread rates makes a lot of sense

[BobL]

This is a very interesting (possibly scary) web page.

Experience

It shows the number of COVID19 cases and deaths by country .
On the lower left slick the large grey button till it shows up "Cumulative cases' and you can see how the # of cases changes in each country over time.
It's about a day or so behind real numbers but it's still good enough to show trends.

China shows it looks like it has peaked out ,as has the Cruise Ship Diamond Princess which even its finite size is what one might expect.
All the other countries are still in the process of peaking.
Some look like they are slowing down others are climbing rapidly.

Australia looked like it was holding for a while but then it took off again. WHY?
Could have been a plane load of XYZs or . . . . ..

[Skew ChiDAMN!!]

One U-Tube channel I've been following since the early days is by Med Cram. I like it because it clearly describes what's happening, from the medical point of view, without the hyperbole of public media.

The latest clip is interesting, for two reasons.

1. Apparently there are two variants and at a glance at the figures it's the less severe one that is more contagious.

2. It provides a list of the US "EPA's Registered Antimicrobial Products for Use Against Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, the Cause of COVID-19."

AFAICT, toilet paper is not on the list.

[NCArcher]

According to the ABC news its made in 3 places around OZ. The big Kimberley Clark factory in SA is apparently working 24/7 to restock supermarket shelves.

One of the TP manufacturers has stated that while they will work hard to restock shelves they won't be going all out and paying heaps of overtime, because when the crisis is over, no-one is going to buy TP for months.

[Tonyz]

one of my grandchild boys comes home from school in tears... he had sneezed and the whole class screamed canovia virus. gogo for t him calmed down and settled then off I go for a number 2 and scream there's no dunny paper

[BobL]

One U-Tube channel I've been following since the early days is by Med Cram. I like it because it clearly describes what's happening, from the medical point of view, without the hyperbole of public media.

The latest clip is interesting, for two reasons.

1. Apparently there are two variants and at a glance at the figures it's the less severe one that is more contagious.

Some doubt on this here; Coronavirus researchers claims virus has split into two strains, but many experts disagree - Health - ABC News