Who's Going to Run the Country???

[zenwood]

I don't trust anyone who phones you at night and asks who you will give your vote to, and as a result I don't trust their published reports. Perhaps Woodwork Forumites can tell Australia in advance who will be running the country after 24 November.

Despite your trust issue, I think the phone polls will be far more accurate than this EBWWF poll. The sampling used by the phone people is much broader and less prone to systematic biases than this one. For a nice summary, try the 'Insiders' weekly average of the polls, which hasn't shifted for the past four weeks:

"On the primary vote, Labor leads 46 to 41, and two-party preferred 55 to 45."

[Knight_of_Ni]

ALright - now I do not want to come on all pollyannaish - but how many of you would really want to live fifty - one hundred - two hundred years ago.

Even fifty years ago most things we take for granted in our life now were absent - from home appliances, to cars, to international travel, to the internet which makes WWF possible. And it is not just material wealth - as a society we are concerned with rights in a way that would have been unthinkable only a short time ago (animal welfare as an example, or equality more generally).

Ranting about how bad society/politicians/government is when on any scale 99% of us enjoy a life 'better' than that enjoyed by 99% of all humanity that ever lived, is pretty ridiculous. (I know coparing two lives across time is an impossibility - but their are heaps of measures you could use - life span, wealth, social mobility, access to information, literacy, and on and on).

It great to look back through rose coloured glasses and mythologise how great things were - but life was pretty tough for most people most of the time.

Human beings have an inherent dissatisfaction with their present status. This is a good thing - perhaps our most important attribute - as it drives us to acheive more and better things, and dream of a better future for our children. However, this dissatisfaction also manifests in rather misguided rants about how poweless we all are.

Yes, we are powerless - in the context of a national or even global economy - why do you think you should have power over that? The power we need is the power over our own destiny in a society where strict limits are placed on the scope and scale of government?

So vote based on the true principles of representative government - look at your local candidates. Personally I favour the ones who do beleive in smaller, less intrusive government. This means that I often vote Liberal.

However, I am also enough of a realist to know that it would take a seismic shift in poltical thought for government actually to stand back and say "lets give some power back to individuals".

Apologies for the rant - pet topic of mine.

Cheers,

[patty]

Maquarie Bank, Packer, Rupert Murdoch, whoever is the next president of the United States,Goverment Advisors and Mulinationals......and other sections of the media

[dazzler]

Coalition will scrape it in. 16 seats just a little too much to swing in the long run. Looks like Turnbull will be safe due to technical issue so that is one labour were counting on gone so its just a wee bit more difficult.

There will be a protest vote in the senate bringing the balance closer.

I think enough swinging voters will get cold feet at the last minute and go with what is known keeping howard in business a little longer. The percieved danger of rising interest rates will be a factor.

I enjoy watching politics, sad I know, so should be a good election night .

My 2c is labour is just liberal lite anyway

[rhancock]

Here's a good comment from Ross Gittins in BrisbaneTimes.com.au:

"Kevin Rudd keeps saying he stands for "fresh ideas". What is the fresh idea? It's Kevin Rudd. He's sold himself as a younger John Howard - change without change."

Which may be just what Australia wants, the chance to renew the leadership, but without any real risk of changing any of the policy settings.

At the end of the day, it's going to be too hard to call, as the majority of swinging voters (I'd be one if I'd taken my oath in time) make their decision in the ballot box. And those of us who don't like John Howard have finally been given a credible alternative in Kevin Rudd, so I think its still an open race.

[TEEJAY]

I think it strange that we should see voting for Rudd as voting for a newer version of Howard when it is well known that voting for Howard is only going to see him as leader for 18 months or near too, as he says, then Costello taking over. So even a vote for Liberal will soon see a new leader.

Does this make a vote for Liberal an each way bet winner as you want things "stable" as they are so you vote for Liberal and you want a new leader so you vote for Liberal.

They said last election it would be a close race - all the polls said it would be a close race - Liberal ROMPED IT IN.

Sad but true I am interested to see the first fews hours of the results to find out if the polsters have absolutely no idea again I'm sure they get paid a lot of money for having absolutely no idea - I would put weather forecasters and economists above polsters for reliable information and they have alot less reliable information to work with.

[Koala-Man]

The ALP is highly likely to win.

Stop reading now if you want to avoid hearing my opinion.

Three things.

First of all I think you should all try to be less cynical. Politicans will find it easier to ruin things if everyone accepts before they're even elected that that's what they'll do. Looking around the world for comparisions, I'd say our polticians do a better job that the vast majority of their counterparts in other parts of the world.

Sure, they're way short of perfect but, as Winston Churchill said "It has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried".

We're stuck with it, we might as well try to keep it working as well as we can rather than throw up our hands and accept second-rate outcomes.

Whingeing is satisfying, but not especially useful.

Second, I think it's clear why the Lib/Nat coalition will be booted out.

I don't think the anti-union scare campaign will fool enough people to turn the tide. (Howard's claim that Labor will reinstitute centralised wage fixing with automatic flow-ons is a furphy and it's a measure of his desperation that he's trying it - what happened to the influence of the unions and the changes to the industrial relations landscape under Hawke and Keating is on the record.)

The claim to economic competence (low interst rates etc) is under challenge, and rightly so, and as a result voters feel more willing to change their vote on the basis of a whole range of other issues (see below), most importantly global warming and WorkChoices.

It's obvious Howard only cares about global warming as far as the opinion polls say he should and he gives the short-term profitability of the coal mining industry (and the ecoomic status quo more generally) top priority when push comes to shove. Young people I speak to almost universally think Howard has dropped the ball on global warming and will punish him for it.

WorkChoices is also a big negative - no-one voted for it, they just introduced it without a mandate. Large sections of the workforce are barely keeping up with inflation - even with labour shortages, 33-year low unemployment etc. The coalition's taxpayer-funded advertising shows "ordinary people" downplaying the idea that wages will fall under WorkChoices because demand for workers is so high. The unspoken question is what happens when things slow down? I think Joe and Mrs Average are smart enough to work that one out and don't like the prospect. I amazed that anyone could believe those ads mighth convince anyone of anything.

There are other big minuses for Howard & Co, eg:
- the childern overboard
- locking kids up in desert camps for the crime of having parents who fled regimes so brutal we sends our troops to war against them
- erosion of civil liberties
- the horrible things the immigration department has done to people like Mr Tran
- the non-existent WMDs
- the Haneef bungle
- claiming credit for low interest rates and denying responsibility for subsequent increases
- the GST
- proposing to hand over to Costello

The list goes on. (I'm sure there are still some people angry at losing their jobs in 1982/83 while treasurer Howard stood idly by as the corproate sector got way with blue murder with the bottom-of-the-harbour tax evasion schemes. People have long memories.)

I'm not saying Rudd & Co would be perfect, but I don't think many people are convinced that they'll do badly on the things Howard & Co claims they will (letting unions run the show, overspending, interest rates etc).

For Howard, the list of things that have ticked people off has simply grown too long, a bit like when Keating lost power in 1996.

Third, John Howard is my local member. How about that!

Gaz.

[Wild Dingo]

Well Im with Chris... it wont make a stick of difference which party wins the election you and I will end up with more of the same just a different brand is all...

Personally as much as I detest the Howard and Costello show the thought of going back to the bad old days of Labor worries the hell out of me... Im old enough to have experienced a home loan interest rate that flowed UPWARD from 10% to 24% causing us to sell at a loss just to save our sanity Im old enough to have heard and watched Keeting mouthing babywords in our seat of parliment filled with contempt abuse denigration and garbage mouthed Labor does not endear me one iota to being interested in the slightest in our country... and its sure as shyte Keeting for one made a shyteload out of being our PM at our cost while we had the economic recession we had to have and he had so much creative accounting with the Aussie dollar and causing our being badly in the red with the world bank and loans all over the place that its taken ever since to get us back on top

The Howard and Costello show bothers me since hes going to retire halfway through and slot Costello into the seat of power in this country and a more contemptuous arrogant jumped up little snide bastard of a pollie Ive not seen for many a year that that one... the thought of this person as the leader of our country fills me with dread.

Looking at the two parties and the wallys within them there appears no differences... then listening to and reading their comments again there appears no differences... yet fundimentally there should be... but even there there is no difference both parties are about big business about money and about self agrandizment and ego stroking what its not about is Australia the country or its people.

Good topic to DISCUSS... being cynical is something that has come by way of polititians by the way Gra... I dont think Ive read any whining or whinging in this thread and the only one whos decidedly gone on about any of it is... you

Who will win? Either one or the other... better question would be... who will loose answer? you me and every other Aussie!

[prozac]

Well Im with Chris... it wont make a stick of difference which party wins the election you and I will end up with more of the same just a different brand is all...

to have heard and watched Keeting mouthing babywords in our seat of parliment filled with contempt abuse denigration and garbage mouthed Labor does not endear me one iota to being interested in the slightest in our country... and its sure as shyte Keeting for one made a shyteload out of being our PM at our cost while we had the economic recession we had to have and he had so much creative accounting with the Aussie dollar and causing our being badly in the red with the world bank and loans all over the place that its taken ever since to get us back on top" ...

Don't bring up the Danish Pig fiasco Wild Dingo!!! Yes I know that they were'nt really Danish pigs (now there's a concept), but it was one of Denmarks biggest piggy companies that lost a bundle on the back of some dodgy dealings over pigs and Paul. Come to think of it didn't Richo have his paw out there as well?

Back to politics. They are making such a big deal about Howard standing down for Costello. How is this different to what just happened at State level in Qld, Vic and WA? Those states all have premiers who were not voted in, and all are Labour states.

prozac

[rhancock]

Well Who will win? Either one or the other... better question would be... who will loose answer? you me and every other Aussie!

That's the first sensible comment I've heard this election!

[dazzler]

Hi Koala man and welcome;

Agree that we shouldnt be so cynical. We gets what we asks for. Budget time is a classic. The media interviews all the community "groups" who whine that "there was nothing in it for us" etc.... so everyone gets a candy whether its good for the country or not

A couple of alternative views;
1. Workchoices. I dont like them, they have gone a bit too far, but, the opposite far left alternative where the pendulum swings completely to the workers is just as bad. And with the majority of Labor being ex union people there is little to suggest that it wouldnt go back that way. I dont think workchoices is really an issue that will sway them. With very little unemployment the horror stories that were predicted are just not there and those that are have tended to be isolated so there is very little groundswell. Thats not to say thats okay, its not, but unless there were wholesale layoffs its just not going to hit home with the swingers.

2. This is all history
There are other big minuses for Howard & Co, eg:
- the childern overboard
- locking kids up in desert camps for the crime of having parents who fled regimes so brutal we sends our troops to war against them
- erosion of civil liberties
- the horrible things the immigration department has done to people like Mr Tran
- the GST

Howard is definately tainted with this, as he should be, but the electorate, particularly the swingers, have moved on and IMO is not an issue that will effect this election.

The haneef case was not bungled, as I pointed out in a previous thread, and most people IMO think "there must have been something" to warrant what happened. Once again I dont think this has any resonance with the swingers.


3. proposing to hand over to Costello.

This is an interesting one. IMO there are a lot of coalition voters who justifiably dislike Howard and his policies, particularly re the US and the war amongst other things. Costello is a viable alternative. Other than his approval for workchoices there are really no other skeletons in the closet so to speak. Though he has obviously towed the party line he has distanced himself from a lot of the stuff that howard is linked to. This handover tactic is very clever. The disaffected coalition supporters who like the way the economy is going but not Howard are happy because they can see an end in sight and those that like Howard are happy because he will be leaving when he is ready etc...

4. Climate change

I think those with a real interest in this will vote green. The major parties are way too soft on climate change. Labor may pick up a little here but its not the election winner IMO. Will affect the senate I think as the greens will pick up at least two seats. Then again the Democrats are done so the greens will need to grab those.

5. I think it will come down to two things in the end.

a. Interest rates. Those who can remember the huge interest rates, or are scared by the libs advertising re them, will vote coalition. Of course anyone with a brain would have locked in thier rates by now.

b. Rudds team. I like Rudd, Swann seems okay, but after that there is very little substance. The shadow immigration bloke seems good too. If the voters go with the presidential style one man show election then that will be good for labor. If they go for a team then that will go bad for labor.

So in short I dont think there is enough to tip enough of the swinging voters to dislodge 16 seats, particularly when you add in the complexities of each seat and the local issues that effect them.

Having re read this I come across as a coalition voter which may be a little sad . I am very much a swinging voter and out of the last four elections am even stevens so to speak.

My vote will probably go to the coalition based purely on my belief that interest rates will go up and effect the country due to international issues but will go up a lot more under a labor govt, if, to quote Dr Phil, "Past behaviour predicts future behaviour".

If the interest rates were stable and Howard was not handing over then I would vote Labor.

cheers

dazzler

[prozac]

3. proposing to hand over to Costello.

This is an interesting one. IMO there are a lot of coalition voters who justifiably dislike Howard and his policies, particularly re the US and the war amongst other things. Costello is a viable alternative. Other than his approval for workchoices there are really no other skeletons in the closet so to speak. Though he has obviously towed the party line he has distanced himself from a lot of the stuff that howard is linked to. This handover tactic is very clever. The disaffected coalition supporters who like the way the economy is going but not Howard are happy because they can see an end in sight and those that like Howard are happy because he will be leaving when he is ready etc...

There are 4 states (or is it 5) that have Premiers who were NOT elected but had the batten handed over to them. The outgoing premiers did not forewarn voters that this was what was going to happen. At least Howard has let the voting public know the game plan. Costello is looking a little better than he did a few years ago and has a good economic grounding.

Do you really know who will be PM if Labor are elected?

I reckon I could put money on this one. Julia Gillard's left wing mob are much stronger than the Rudd camp. Give it 12 months and Rudd will be out and Gillard will be in!

BTW, our voting poll is very close with Labor generally a touch ahead since the start of polling. I wonder if this will mirror the real thang?

prozac

[rhancock]

I agree that interest rates are worrying a big chunk of voters, but I think what is missing is any indication that either party will do anything different to keep interest rates low.

In fact neither the Coalition federal or labour state govts have done anything to keep rates low. There have been no tax reforms to stimulate productivity or workforce participation, only tax cuts which drive inflation up, followed by interest rates. The big spending election will only serve to put further upward pressure on inflation, too.

So although interest rates are at the front of people's minds, I don't think it will be the decider for swingers ( like me).

I think it will come down to trust, and not of Johnny or Kevin, but of the party machines. Do you trust the coalition not to move Work Choices further, for instance? Or do you trust the ALP not to sit back in power and let the unions do what they're best at?

Sothe election won't be won on policy, or even campaigning, it'll be won on who the voters have most faith in. That makes it very hard to call, but at the end of the day, many people will say, better the devil you know...

[rhancock]

There are 4 states (or is it 5) that have Premiers who were NOT elected but had the batten handed over to them. The outgoing premiers did not forewarn voters that this was what was going to happen. At least Howard has let the voting public know the game plan. Costello is looking a little better than he did a few years ago and has a good economic grounding.

Do you really know who will be PM if Labor are elected?

I reckon I could put money on this one. Julia Gillard's left wing mob are much stronger than the Rudd camp. Give it 12 months and Rudd will be out and Gillard will be in!

BTW, our voting poll is very close with Labor generally a touch ahead since the start of polling. I wonder if this will mirror the real thang?

prozac

I think this is silly argument! Voters surely understand that no leader stays forever! Some leaders (Tony Blair in the UK for instance) let voters know that they are going in the next term, but many pollies do not have the psychic powers to know berforehand that the time is right.

I think one of the few good things about the US system is the 2 term limit, as it gets rid of all the garbage spoken about 'Will they stay or will they go?'.

While we're on it, the other good thing about the US system is the 5 year terms. The three year terms here mean pollies have either just finished an election, or are about to start one.

That pushes them into only implementing short sighted policies - clean coal is a good example here. Even the 4 year terms I grew up with in the UK are too short.

[Koala-Man]

I agree that interest rates are worrying a big chunk of voters, but I think what is missing is any indication that either party will do anything different to keep interest rates low.

In fact neither the Coalition federal or labour state govts have done anything to keep rates low. There have been no tax reforms to stimulate productivity or workforce participation, only tax cuts which drive inflation up, followed by interest rates. The big spending election will only serve to put further upward pressure on inflation, too.

So although interest rates are at the front of people's minds, I don't think it will be the decider for swingers ( like me).

That last point's a very important point one, Richard. Until now, the coalition has managed to maintain an image of economic competence and so other issues (Iraq, global warming, whatever) have not been the deciding factor.

Now there have been challenges to the coalition's economic credentials (unlike the last election where the ALP let Costello use them as a punching bag).

Whether or not the challenges are valid, the mere fact that those credentials are now seen as contested terrain seems to have allowed voters to revisit all those other matters that they'd unitl now been willing to overlook.

And there is an awfully long list of such matters covering a wide spectrum of the electorate. And for that reason I think a large swing (I mean larger than the 4% or so needed to oust the government and possibly even Howard from his own seat) is likely.

It will certainly be an interesting election.

At this point I was going to start drivelling on about what Alan Greenpan's book has to say about the outlook for global inflation and interest rates as the excess supply of cheap labour in China is used up - but then I remembered it's a woodwork forum so I'll just shut up now.

Gaz.