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Thread: Did U watch "CRUDE"
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30th May 2007, 03:57 PM #31
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30th May 2007, 09:22 PM #32
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30th May 2007, 10:09 PM #33
There is talk of global dimming, not as a result of dubbya, but the increase in pollutants in the air reflecting solar energy away.
Mick
avantguardian
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30th May 2007, 10:44 PM #34
Hot dark and smelly....sounds like a nite club
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30th May 2007, 11:11 PM #35There is talk of global dimming, not as a result of dubbya, but the increase in pollutants in the air reflecting solar energy away.
Any ideas on rebutting what was said in Crude, in particular the carbon saturation stuff
[quote=Andy Mac]Agriculture, especially broad acre farming, will suffer greatly without diesel, and I can't imagine electric tractors in the near future! /QUOTE]
Modern agriculture is completely dependant on fossil fuels in every step. For every calorie of food we eat, it took 10 calories of energy to produce it. Diesel, fertilisers, pesticides, transport and production all use and require oil.
Add oil crop production onto increased demand for food cropping....[
Originally Posted by Andy Mac
Originally Posted by GingermickPhoto Gallery
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31st May 2007, 08:51 AM #36
Electricity and vehicle fuel will be easy. We do that now, almost economically.
The BIG one is the reliance on chemicals and other stuff. Not just agriculture, everything we use and touch seems to have some form of oil industry product in it, it gets scary when you really think about it.Boring signature time again!
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31st May 2007, 12:30 PM #37
everybody has a goal not always the same as ours there maybe people that everything is going to plan ,they do spend a lot of money ,time and energy looking out at space
some are at the stage where they think they can jump ship
l havent gotten my ticket yetsmile and the world will smile with you
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31st May 2007, 03:16 PM #38
The beauty of having enough data is that you can prove anything with it. Now let us apply the same reasoning to other resources.
Copper: copper price has quadrupled itself in the past 5 years. Production in the US, Peru and Kazakhastan, three of the largest producers of copper (about 20% of the total production), has dropped in 2005. (I do not have more recent data.) Are we facing "Peak copper" crisis?
Zinc: zinc price has quadrupled in the past 5 years. Production in Peru (over 13% of the total world roduction in 2003) has dropped in 2004 and again in 2005. Are we facing "Peak Zinc"?
Was our world designed in such a way that all of the resources are deplated at exactly the same time?
Saw the graph below. The interesting thing is that the drop of 5% starts tomorrow. Why? Why not 20% or 2% or maybe production will increase?
Actually, if we base world forecasts on US past data, and assume the 40 years interval you mentioned, I noted that for the past 30 years US production has dropped by less that a half. I would have assumed that this would be the deplation rate you would use.
I would have assumed that political events around Iran and Saudi Arabia would affect current oil prices. Don't they?
As you know, oil price in 1979 has reached $100 in today's dollars. Oil price can still grow by 40% before reaching the circumstances that triggered our attempts to conserve oil. Why would it not work this time?
I do not suggest that we would have oil forever. Alternative energy sources should be developed and deployed, and the sooner the better. There is, however, no need for the panic. It is actually counterproductive. If we are in the after peak oil times, and tehre are no alternative sources at hand, and, as you claim, there is no time, than there is no need to develop alternative energy sources. Focus your efforts on survival in the post-judement-day world.
BTW, what's wrong with the explanation that currect resources (including oil) prices are high due to a combination of unexpected high demand and the weakness of the US dollar? The drop in the world's production and in Saudi Arabia's production is a simple fluctuation (similar to those in previous years - see your graph), and everything will be OK?
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31st May 2007, 03:23 PM #39
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31st May 2007, 03:38 PM #40
Javali and grunt
yes we will have a oil crisis but it will not be the end of the world ,,,please come on now people went though the back death had a better out look
Things will change YES be ready for the change is the answer the change isn't going to come with big bang more like eat away at the sysem we live in
worse it gets more people will change ,gee some farmer still cut down all their trees ,more and more are planting them
l have my idea how best to get along in the new world much like Grunts
smile and the world will smile with you
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31st May 2007, 03:48 PM #41
The problem is twofold. Firstly we have come to rely on oil so heavily that just about everything we do requires it. There are no real alternatives at present. Secondly, people don't truly believe it is ever going to come to an end (it will) and have largely forgotten how to get by without it. So if something does not come along to replace it, there will be a fairly dramatic change to life as we know it.
Personally, I'm OK with that. But I will miss electricity
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31st May 2007, 05:01 PM #42
I won't because me computer won't work so I won't have to listen to you lot badgering on about the world oil crisis and by the time I've worn out me collection of pushbikes ... I'll have starved to death because we've lost the ability to produce enough food not that it'll take that long because some git of a government will unleash a nuclear holocaust (oh hang on, that was the sixties and seventies ) but ...
No, not trivialising it. We're heading for shocking trouble and I'm hoping the human animal can manage yet another breathtaking survival trick
Richard
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31st May 2007, 11:02 PM #43Are we facing "Peak copper" crisis?
Are we facing "Peak Zinc"?
The worlds resources are finite. We use them like there is a limitless supply.
Copper is damned useful. While there are some alternatives like silver and aluminium but they are more expensive or less effective. In a short space of time we would reach peak with any alternative.
The worlds resources are NOT limited.
I noted that for the past 30 years US production has dropped by less that a half. I would have assumed that this would be the deplation rate you would use.
5% is a reasonable assumption. Of course it could be less but equally it could be more.
I would have assumed that political events around Iran and Saudi Arabia would affect current oil prices. Don't they?
The drop in the world's production and in Saudi Arabia's production is a simple fluctuation (similar to those in previous years - see your graph), and everything will be OK?
I do not suggest that we would have oil forever. Alternative energy sources should be developed and deployed, and the sooner the better. There is, however, no need for the panic. It is actually counterproductive. If we are in the after peak oil times, and tehre are no alternative sources at hand, and, as you claim, there is no time, than there is no need to develop alternative energy sources. Focus your efforts on survival in the post-judement-day world.Photo Gallery
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31st May 2007, 11:49 PM #44
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1st June 2007, 12:00 AM #45
Isn't it strange that for some strange reason the supply of all major resources ends up exactly at the same time? Resources are limited. We agree on that. But why would all resources peak at the same time? Our use rate does not necessarily match the existing quantity of a resource, so I would have expected each resource to peak at its own time. Take the price graph of any resource you like, wipe the numbers, and noone could tell what resource it is. They are just the same. How did that happen? Peak oil/copper/whatever does not explain this. Awakening China markets explain increasing demand.
As reasonable as 5% increase.
It is a major question of if. I do question it. I do not believe in it. The evidence I have seen of the presumed peak is also evidence for peak in any other resource, which simply does not make sense.
The presumed peak is a worst case scenario that will happen unless we do something about it. If we do nothing for preventing this scenario than we will have 500,000 people dying every day for 30 years. That's what you said. As soon as we start treating this as certainty instead of a worst case possibility than nothing can be done to prevent it. Instead of working on prevension we will be erecting crap-shields to shield us from flying sheet, and peak-oil becomes a self-fulfiling prophecy. That's counter productive.
I have already lived three doom prophecies I am aware of, and probably hundreds I have not heard about. History is full of prophecies. Some are religion based, some are based on science. Some are vague others are detailed. Some are reasonable, others are just whacky. They all have one thing in common. They are all wrong. Strangely enough, most disasters and crises were not predicted by any of these prophecies. Evidence is that the divining power of humanity is close to nil.
Have you asked yourself why peak oil gets so little coverage?
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