CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[GraemeCook]

From this point onwards I would be in favour of:
......

• Uni/schools shutdown within 24 hours, don't wait and see if this has an effect - it won't be much anyway

......

The Chan School of Public Health at Harvard is arguably the best school of public health in the world. When threatened with coronovirus the President of Harvard asked the school to review the situation and to advise the university. Can you imagine an Australian vice chancellor asking a school or faculty for advice?

Chan School's assessment was that the USA border security was likely to miss 70% of COVID-19 cases. It also proposed a course of action that was immediately implemented, including:

"....Teach and Learn Remotely

The goal of these social distancing measures is to limit the number of instances where community members are gathering in large groups and spending periods of time in close proximity with each other in classrooms, dining halls, and residential buildings. See Teach and Learn Remotely for more information.
Effective March 10 and until further notice:

• We will begin transitioning to online instruction for all graduate and undergraduate classes. The goal is to complete this transition by March 23.
  
  • Government guidance assures us that international students can participate in online classes without concern for their immigration status, provided they continue to make normal progress in a full course of study as required by federal regulations.
  
  
• Students are asked not to return to campus after Spring Recess and to meet academic requirements remotely.
  
  • We know there will be difficult and extenuating circumstances for students who cannot leave campus or do not have another place to go. We will provide you the help you need to stay safe, secure, and continue with your academic work.
  
  
• Students who need to remain on campus for extenuating circumstances will also receive instruction remotely and must prepare for severely limited on-campus activities and interactions.
• All graduate students will transition to remote work wherever possible.
• Schools will communicate more specific guidance, and we encourage you to review your School and Program-specific coronavirus page for more information...."

[ian]

From this point on wards I would be in favour of:

• Except for Aussies, Complete suspension of OS air travel,

too late. As a part-time Aussie expatriate, I believe my best option is to "shelter in place." i.e. remain in Canada.
My personal risk assessment is that any non-essential travel is just not worth the risk and the accompanying 14 days of self isolation.

Besides, Canada has closed its borders to all persons who are non-citizens or permanent residents -- with US citizens still allowed to border cross "for now".

• Uni/schools shutdown within 24 hours, don't wait and see if this has an effect - it won't be much anyway

a very difficult decision. If schools are shut who will provide child care grandma and grandpa? The very people we, as a community, are trying to protect from infection.

• Mobile phone tracking of infectees - draconian but emergency powers would get around that.

you're assuming that all infectees have a trackable mobile phone.
I think that scenario is unlikely.


As I mentioned I've determined that my best response is to stay in Canada till this event passes.

[GraemeCook]

[/LIST]
.....Besides, Canada has closed its borders to all persons who are non-citizens or permanent residents -- with US citizens still allowed to border cross "for now". ......

With due respect to Uncle Sam, this seems to be a particularly dumb decision.

Tracing of the sources of infection in Australia shows:

• c.50% cases, source tracing is still under investigation or has not started,
• Of the remainder the traced source was identified as overseas in at least 70% of cases.

Of the cases where coronavirus was imported, the sources identified were:

• 25 - USA
• 20 - Italy
• 16 - China
• 15 - Iran
• 12 - UK
• 8 - Diamond Princess

Source: Coronavirus data reveals how COVID-19 is spreading in Australia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[BobL]

One problem with any data out of this USA is they have significant under reporting of anything medical due to factors like, deep distrust of Govt and science, and the high cost (~US$2000) of a COVID19 test. Many tests are also done privately and not reported. The further south and mid west one goes the worse this probably gets.
At this stage the infection rates are probably even more poorly know than China.

[BobL]

Another reason for an immediate lockdown

‘Supermarket tourists’ cleaning regional towns out
ROLLING COVERAGE Shelves in regional Victorian towns have been stripped bare by selfish “supermarket tourists”, who have been arriving by the busload to buy vital supplies — leaving locals high and dry. It comes as angry scenes erupted at Woolworths stores this morning. 17m ago Combined Shape

[ian]

With due respect to Uncle Sam, this seems to be a particularly dumb decision.

closing the border to US Citizens represents a very difficult decision for Canada. Perhaps a decision that is impossible to resolve.

Extracted from today's (i.e. Monday March 16) media report
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said the decision to keep the border open to Americans was made to reflect the integration of the two economies and populations, and to maintain essential supply lines for things like food.

"That border is absolutely vital to the daily lives of the people who live on both sides of that border," she said.

Everyone arriving in Canada from another country is now going to be asked to self-isolate for 14 days. Essential workers, including air crews and truck drivers, will be exempted from that rule, Freeland said.

Canada's Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said Monday that new measures are necessary to slow the spread of the virus. She's now recommending that gatherings of 50 or more people should be avoided.

"All Canadians must act now to interrupt chains of transmission," she said.


With a large proportion of the fresh produce sold in Canada sourced from the southern US or as places further south, such as Guatemala, Canadian's are no longer self sufficient in terms of food.
Ditto when it come to canned and packaged goods.

Like Australia, Canada exports lots of bulk food and petroleum products and imports lots of packaged goods.


And when it comes to road transport nearly all long haul trucks in Alberta at least are dual registered -- labeled with both US and Canadian Tare and gross weights.

In essence the Canadian and US economies are very tightly interwoven.
Certainly too tightly interwoven to permit trailer exchanging at the border.

[GraemeCook]

.....and the high cost (~US$2000) of a COVID19 test. .....

As compared to ¥2,500 in Japan - approx US$23.49. Must be a nice little earner for the snouts in this trough - err!... supply line.

[GraemeCook]

closing the border to US Citizens represents a very difficult decision for Canada. Perhaps a decision that is impossible to resolve. .....

Never said it was an easy decision. Classic case of putting profits before people.

TRUMP: Coronovirus is bad for business.
COOLIDGE: The business of America is business.
Some things are eternal!

European countries are even more integrated than Canada and USA but they have acted decisively.

So what is the outcome of Canada's addiction to avocadoes from Guatomala - well fed corpses?

[doug3030]

[GraemeCook]

Noting that coronavirus is in the same viral family as the flue and Spanish flu, this graph from a refereed scientific journal shows another ray of hope. At the time Philadelphia had a population of 1.8 million and St Louis' was 0.8 mill, but the graph has been normalised to deaths per 100,000. Essentially Philadelphia dithered, St Louis acted decisively.

F1.large.jpg

Source: Hatchett, RJ, Mecher, CE and Lipsitch, M. "Public health interventions and epidemic intensity during the 1918 influenza pandemic" in PNAS 104, 1 May 2007.

Interestingly, this graph is entirely consistent with the two graphs from my post #235 above. Philadelphia had the virus spread rapidly when it was in the most deadly phase of its cycle - comparable to the 40% phase for coronavirus, it wreaked havoc and then ameleorated. St Louis implemented rigorous social isolation, minimised the impact of the most deadly phase and then it also ameleorated. Really graphic differences.

Taiwan and Singapore seem to be following the St Louis model quite successfully. Italy was slow to react and is suffering the consequences in four provinces, especially Lombardy and Venetu, but seems to be winning in the rest of the country. New Zealand looks to be another St Louis.

Are we dithering a la Philadelphia? The mood of the people seems to be that everyone is waiting for the government to act decisively, and they are too slow. Lets hope things can accelerate.

[ian]

Never said it was an easy decision. Classic case of putting profits before people.

TRUMP: Coronovirus is bad for business.
COOLIDGE: The business of America is business.
Some things are eternal!

European countries are even more integrated than Canada and USA but they have acted decisively.

Hi Graeme
If you look carefully at what Canada's Deputy Prime Minister (Chrystia Freeland) said, the decision to keep the border open to Americans was made to reflect the integration of the two economies and populations, and to maintain essential supply lines for things like food.
It's very hard to maintain the food supply and keep people from becoming "starved corpses" when, apart from crappy cheese and milk, the entire food supply depends on the US/Canadian cross border trade.

Europe might be tightly integrated, but trade in food is mostly a cross border operation that, as far as I know, the current country wide lock downs in Europe allow to continue.


No one should particularly care if for six months Canadian lumber can't be used to build houses in Arizona, but when the only products that come out of Alberta are beef, oil and natural gas, if you're not bringing in food staples from south of the border, then people will starve to death.


So I would dispute your "profits before people" assertion.

[BobL]

There’s apparently a 4000 sig Petition (~3500 doctors) circulating around calling on the govt to do more immediately.

talk amongst my mates is whether seniors should deliberately catch it now whiles there are ventilators available but less experience in using them on this virus, or isolate and hope to catch it towards the end of the curve. Trouble is things are happening so quickly that if you don’t already have it now by the time you need a ventilator you might not get one or be on it for a few days and get kicked off it for a younger patient.

[44Ronin]

Why are people still comparing it to the flu?

Really.....

[Lappa]

I’m a teacher and work in workshop with two other teachers and 36 students. We have small quiet rooms for the students for theory work. Most of our work is of a practical nature with students having to share tools, test equipment as we don’t have the luxury of 1 item per student.

This is the advice we got today

“INFORMATION FOR TEACHING STAFF​Some of our students might be feeling anxious about coming to classes, so we need to make sure that they have all the facts they need. It will be important to regularly remind our students of the importance of good hygiene and maintaining social distance to reduce the transmission of COVID 19.
Here are a few simple things that you can implement in each of your classes:
1.Ensure all students have washed their hands, if possible immediately before joining the class.
2.Ask students to maintain a social distance of at least 1.2 metres. If possible, organise your classroom seating to accommodate this.
3.Where there are practical activities, avoid sharing of equipment that is handled by more than one person, if that is possible.”

Impossible to enforce or achieve. I love the “if possible”. In other words, just get on with your job. We actually have students phoning/emailing in saying they won’t be attending because of the virus and this is supported fully by their employers.

[BobL]

Why are people still comparing it to the flu?

Really.....

Because until 3500 people die deaths from COVID19 won't exceed the numbers of deaths per year from the flu.

Problem is when something can grow exponentially things can happen real fast.

In the case of the region of Italy (about the same population as Australia) where most of deaths have occurred., the numbers of dead have gone from new zero to 1800 in about 3 weeks.

The same for the main infection zone in china which has about double the pop of Australia. Here the deaths went from near zero to 3000 in about 4 weeks. They did implemented severe controls and now have near zero deaths per day for COVID19 - much less than the annual flu.

The hygiene measures and controls for COVID also put the dampers on the regular flu as well.