CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

Just as important as the death rate are things like the infection rate, incubation period transmissibility during incubation. So far on balance Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to. Using a back of the envelop calculation i estimated about 100000 people in just Oz will die in the first wave of COVID19 unless significant steps are taken. A few days later medical experts came out with the same number (96000). The final death rate could be much higher because depending how quickly it is allowed to develop because it can easily overwhelm medical facilities causing many other people with serious medical problems to also die because the can’t be attended to. Just like any pandemic this is also just the first wave until a vaccine is available it will revisit us and reap more victims a number of times.

[Tccp123]

"Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to"

Why do you say that?

[Lappa]

The 96,000 deaths referred to were quotes as being possible if the worse case scenario occurred which were deaths in the younger population as well as the elderly, rapid spread in a very short period of time over whelming the hospital system, etc, etc.
I blame the media including social media for all this panic - the Daily Tele ran a front page article with your numbers claiming “96,0000 Australians to die” then ran the conditions required to reach that number on page three.

The other thing that amuses me is we can’t have a gathering of 500 people or more buts it’s OK to travel in a train with standing room only, for 40 minutes to an hour, to go to work?

[BobL]

"Covid19 seems nastier than the ones you referred to"

Why do you say that?

Longer incubation period during which those infected don't seem to be showing clear symptoms which gives them a greater chance of spreading it around.
Many children and young adults may not get any symptoms so become very effective spreaders. At least with the other flu's if anyone caught it caught they exhibited the symptoms pretty rapidly so were placed into isolation.

The latest estimates by US epidemiologists are, if more is not done asap, there will be about 1 million COVIOD19 deaths in the US alone (this roughly matches the 100000 in Oz) many of those will not COVID sufferers due to the lack of facilities - this makes it ~10X worse than H1H1.

The Chinese actions in Hubei were extremely draconian but so far appear to have been successful in containing this first wave. They had to be draconian because they were the first to be exposed so had no idea how bad it would be, and in this first wave appear to have got away with just 3000 odd deaths. Most people have no idea that pandemics don't work proportionally but exponentially so by any country taking too few countermeasures too slowly this enables the disease to very quickly get totally out of controls eg Italy.

I had to admit I was on the "YAWN" side about the whole thing started but this changed especially after following a few medical websites, talking to two of the family who are epidemiologists, and even more so when my numerous relatives in Italy started contacting me about it. Whatever the case I would rather hope a lot less people than 100,000 Australian die from Covid19 - for reference ~3500 a year die from the regular flu.

I don't think the government or aussies are taking this anywhere seriously enough. I don't watch much TV but have not seen a single public health announcement about this on TV or as official social media announcements. Done right these could serve to calm as much as heighten peoples awareness about this.

As Dr Norman Swan from the ABC health report says "When this is all over I will be very happy if only a few thousand people die and to be told, or hear shock jocks saying, I told you so, versus to hear, you were right"

[GraemeCook]

.....Increasing numbers of younger people with COVID19 without comorbidities turning up at hospitals .....

Congratulations, Bob, you have used a word that is not in the Oxford English Dictionary - the real twelve volume OED on paper with hard covers!

So I turned to an American source, the National Institute of Health, who state as follows: "...Comorbidity is associated with worse health outcomes, more complex clinical management, and increased health care costs. There is no agreement, however, on the meaning of the term, and related constructs, such as multimorbidity, morbidity burden, and patient complexity, are not well conceptualized....".
Defining Comorbidity: Implications for Understanding Health and Health Services

I think this paraphrases as comorbidity is serious but we are not sure what it is.

Maybe I should ask Dr Google?

[GraemeCook]

.....The latest estimates by US epidemiologists are, if more is not done asap, there will be about 1 million COVIOD19 deaths in the US alone (this roughly matches the 100000 in Oz) many of those will not COVID sufferers due to the lack of facilities - this makes it ~10X worse than H1H1......

World Health have estimated that in infected areas between 60-70% of the population will contract COVIOD-19, and the mean death rate recorded is around 2%. Angela Merkel has stated that it is possible that up to 70% of the German population may become infected and that their government is planning for that level of disruption. She stopped short of saying that Germany is planning for up to 1 million deaths from the virus; just simple arithmetic.

I don't think the government or aussies are taking this anywhere seriously enough. I don't watch much TV but have not seen a single public health announcement about this on TV or as official social media announcements. Done right these could serve to calm as much as heighten peoples awareness about this.

So true; filtering the announcements through the mouths of politicians certainly impacts on its credibility. ScoMo's performance on TV the other night had as much gravitas as the ladies flogging laundry detergents. I would much rather hear directly from the Director of Public Health.

[rwbuild]

Services NSW are emailing how to's and updates

[Tccp123]

The Italian mortality rate (based on published figures) is 0.002%. If you apply that to the Australian population it's about 560.

[rwbuild]

Another side effect is with cancellation of sports events, schools, workplace disruptions is the internet is getting swamped with extra traffic and slooooowwwwwiiinnngggg down with people working from home, downloading movies and on line gaming

[Kuffy]

the internet is getting swamped with extra traffic and slooooowwwwwiiinnngggg down with people working from home

That's probably true. Pornhub has given quarantined Italians free access to premium Pornhub while in lockdown....and now we have the answer as to why all the dunny paper panic buying

[BobL]

The Italian mortality rate (based on published figures) is 0.002%. If you apply that to the Australian population it's about 560.

Looking at todays cumulative death rate per head of population is an unreliable indicator about what is going on now and what might happen. That's why we don't see death rates published by medical people.

Peak infection let alone peak mortality in all EU countries appears far from being reached
Here are the known infections for Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and USA
Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.05.27 pm.png Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.06.50 pm.png Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.07.03 pm.png Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.07.13 pm.png Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.07.23 pm.png

Australia's curve is not much different.
Screen Shot 2020-03-14 at 12.15.51 pm.png
Oz Public health officials should have probably nobbled air travel and large gatherings back when the curve was flattening out in Mid Feb.
Now its growing exponentially and could be really hard to slow down.

Until these graphs tip over we won't have much of a clue about what is going on and should play it safe - not my words, but from epidemiologists.

The only graph that has tipped over is in China where in a region of about 60 million people after DRACONIAN control measures were applied they report ~3000 deaths.
If that's true, that's commendable, but as I said the death rate before won't be proportional to control. If controls are backed off by even just a whisker then the growth can continue to be exponential.
I am reminded of nuclear reactor control, if the control rods are not inserted far enough the reactor can very rapidly get out of control, sometimes just backing them off by just a mm can result in a runaway section.

Anyway this is largely irrelevant to the Italian medical staff on the front line who are stacking the 250 people that died from COVID19 yesterday in their morgues largely because they did not have the ventilators or staff to cope with the additional rush.

Should we be accepting the death rates of past epidemics as any sort of guide of how to live today? Imagine the uproar if we have to occasionally use abacuses?
I'd rather miss a footy for a few weeks or months than for any of our docs to be placed in the same position as many Italian medical staff are current facing right now and for the foreseeable future. Never mind those that died.

[ian]

a couple more charts





It looks like South Korea may be getting on top of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Not as sure about Iran,
Italy is on the data still accelerating.

and as for the US, "nothing to see here" is starting to look beyond wishful

[Tccp123]

Going off on a slightly different tangent, given the chaos reported in supermarkets yesterday, what do YOU plan to do (in terms of shopping) to ensure you have enough to get through the weeks/months ahead? Will you just act normally and allow all the nervous nellies to strip the shelves bare or do you wade in with them so you have enough to keep you going?

[Chesand]

We have an upright freezer which SWMBO keeps pretty much full at all times and our pantry is always well stocked so we should be OK. The only thing that we were low on was breakfast cereal so I bought 2 packets yesterday. We have fresh vegetables in the garden and the apple trees have fruit on them
The only thing I have doubled up on are medications for both of us. At a pinch, we could survive without those if we were careful as neither of us have life threatening conditions.

I reckon that we would be able to survive up to 3 months isolation so not particularly worried.

I have just about finished all required outside jobs so am prepared to spend any isolation in the workshop where there are 3 projects on the drawing board

[Kuffy]

what do YOU plan to do (in terms of shopping) to ensure you have enough to get through the weeks/months ahead? ?

I have been giving serious thought to this question. Normally I only buy personal toiletry items, slabs of bottled water (4-5 a time to make it worth grabbing a trolley), juice, and chocolate from Coles/Wooleys. I probably should buy some stuff, but I don't want to be "one of those people!".
IMG_20200314_172734.jpg

There are 5 Coles/Wooleys/Aldi's within 3km of my house and they haven't had dunny paper, bleach, spagetti etc etc for the last week and a bit (since I noticed anyway, could have been longer but I don't go in those aisles normally).