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Thread: CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves
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17th April 2020, 02:21 PM #1606GOLD MEMBER
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I'm not in the hate camp. If I was a yank, i'd vote for Trump. He seems to have been doing a pretty good job before corona. Pretty good doesn't mean great, nor bad, he's just a politician but at least he doesn't cower to the left leaning muppets of the press. So he gets a thumbs up from me on that point alone. I'm no fool, he has royally screwed up with corona and now is playing a blame game with WHO and China. If he gets re-elected, I fear he will take that as a mandate to continue to shoot his mouth off at China which will possibly end up being a prelude to war. War between China and USA.....god help us all!
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17th April 2020, 03:37 PM #1607
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17th April 2020, 03:42 PM #1608
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17th April 2020, 03:46 PM #1609
Be like LEGO people,people
Cheers Matt.
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17th April 2020, 04:19 PM #1610GOLD MEMBER
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17th April 2020, 04:51 PM #1611
Modelling for the USA and many other countries
Looking again this morning at the modelling for the USA that I have been regularly following, they are still tracking close to the projection of about 70k deaths by 4 August, provided they retain full social distancing to the end of May.
The projection for today (17 April) was about 32K total deaths and Woldometer is reporting about 34.5k. The number bounce around a bit, but at this rate they may do better than Spain and Italy per capita, but the projections for those (see pull down country options) are nearing their peak whereas the USA has a long way to go yet and there is still a lot of upside uncertainty built into the US projections.
Remove the social distancing that is built into the modelling for each of the countries/locations before the end of May and that will produce very different projected outcomes.
See third chart here.
There is a lot of very rich data in the modelling, like the projected peak and ICU bed shortages at peak demand. No wonder Spain, Italy, the UK and New York have struggled as can be clearly seen by pulling down the charts for each of those places.
Note: Many countries, large and small, are included in the modelling, but not Australia. Why am I'm not surprised!Stay sharp and stay safe!
Neil
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17th April 2020, 06:12 PM #1612
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17th April 2020, 06:26 PM #1613GOLD MEMBER
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Are you listing centre right publications in an attempt to sway my view that Trump doesn't cower to "left" leaning muppets of the press? You quoted what I said, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you actually read what I said.
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17th April 2020, 06:45 PM #1614
according to this source Why B.C.'''s top doctor still believes mass testing isn'''t the way to stop COVID-19 | CBC News the Covid-19 "test" can deliver a false negative result 30% of the time. Just to clarify 30% of patients testing negative to the virus are actually positive to the virus. At that rate of false negatives I think it's more than appropriate that I describe the Covid-19 test as "test".
What is scary, at least for me, is that according to a radio interview with a Canadian virologist on CBC this afternoon (Thursday April 16) the rate of false negatives INCREASES from 10% to 30% as the duration of the infection increases.regards from Alberta, Canada
ian
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17th April 2020, 06:45 PM #1615GOLD MEMBER
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Good to see, then, that my old mum in the UK is taking the appropriate precautions:
D24418A8-6B11-4C04-ABF8-698531FAF989.jpeg
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17th April 2020, 07:18 PM #1616
Remember when we were crowing about ticking over post #1,000?
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17th April 2020, 07:19 PM #1617GOLD MEMBER
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- Feb 2005
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Remember when we were predicting 100,000 deaths in Australia
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17th April 2020, 07:20 PM #1618
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17th April 2020, 07:28 PM #1619
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17th April 2020, 07:34 PM #1620
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