CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Tccp123]

If you asked someone in the small community of NW Tassie 10 days ago if they knew anyone with Covid-19 the chances are they would have almost all answered no.

Today there are over 100 cases there. Ask them again now and I expect many in that NW Tassie community will know somebody who has it and if not already then they will in the coming days as the numbers grow

.

Surprise, surprise someone has cherry picked NW Tassie as the exception to the rule. Not unexpected as this is certainly a major outbreak when compared with the rest of Australia. I might add this occurred after lockdown had been brought into effect which would seemingly question the effectiveness of lockdown.

But my point was that "in Australia" this problem doesn't have anywhere near the same degree of importance as it does in say NYC. If I lived in NYC I'd never leave home without being fully kitted up in PPE. But I don't live in NYC so my chances of coming into contact with a carrier are still something like 1:10,000. Still good odds IMO. To fine some poor guy $1652 because he set off to go mountain biking BY HIMSELF is the ultimate in stupidity (and there are plenty of other examples of this jackboot behaviour).

My other question was what do we do once the virus has been eradicated from Australian soil? Presumably it is still active in other countries so that would suggest we cease all contact with them (AKA "close our borders"). That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

[GraemeCook]

I smoothed the bar charts using three and five day moving averages.

COVID Australia 3dma.jpg
COVID Australia 5dma.jpg
















Noting that no graphical depiction is perfect, My assessment is that the 5-day moving average gives the best depiction of reality, minimising the distractions of data eccentricities.

[GraemeCook]

I then plotted the same five day moving averages for daily new cases per million of population and Australia and USA.

COVID Australia and USA.jpg




















After adjusting for population, Australia is doing significantly better than the USA.

Also note that the daily number of new cases in the USA appears to have peaked and may be starting to decline. But still at a worrying level!

[GraemeCook]

I then plotted the same data for Australia and UK.

COVID Australia and UK.jpg



















Australia also seems to be doing much better than the UK.

On a per capita basis the UK still has slightly fewer cases than the USA but its cases are still increasing exponentially. It may reach or even pass the USA rate.

[GraemeCook]

This did surprise me. The same data for Australia and New Zealand - note that the y-axis has been rescaled.

COVID Australia and NZ.jpg

As expected, this shows that initially New Zealnd did better than Australia at fighting the virus. Their PM moved early and decisively.

But Australia is recovering quicker than NZ. This did surprise me.

Both countries rates and performance are really quite incredible when compared elsewhere.

[Beardy]

The

My other question was what do we do once the virus has been eradicated from Australian soil? Presumably it is still active in other countries so that would suggest we cease all contact with them (AKA "close our borders"). That means no tourism, no exports, no imports blah, blah, blah... Where's the money coming from? How do you think that $130bn was funded?

I can't see an alternative to herd immunity but I'm open to ideas. Anyone?

I think that is the main question, there is a solution to dealing with the virus short term but then what ? There might not be a medical solution for years if ever???
I haven’t really heard much said about how life will be after the initial/ current phase

[Bohdan]

I haven’t really heard much said about how life will be after the initial/ current phase

It's called herd immunity. The only people around will be those that it didn't kill, just like after 1918/19.

[justonething]

This did surprise me. The same data for Australia and New Zealand - note that the y-axis has been rescaled.

COVID Australia and NZ.jpg

As expected, this shows that ,initially New Zealnd did better than Australia at fighting the virus. Their PM moved early and decisively.

But Australia is recovering quicker than NZ. This did surprise me.

Both countries rates and performance are really quite incredible when compared elsewhere.

I find that its difficult to compare countries by the number of cases, because of the extent of testing is different and also the counting of cases are different. In New Zealand, they have included probable cases in some of their figures. But looking at the picture, New Zealand is about 2 weeks behind Australia in its progress of cases, probably indicating that it took 2 weeks longer to reach NZ.

On another note, while I think the Govt has done a good job of containing the spread, I really think we are the lucky countries. Govt, and its citizens, our more remote location/island all work together to bring this about.

[Greg Ward]

Not necessarily.
Just like the annual flu shot, in a year or so, we may be able get an annual virus shot.
Researcher interviewed from the US this morning said they have been working on this since SARS, i.e. for around 7 years. She said that in the US they hope to have a vaccine that will be available for first responders by their autumn, then be able to produce enough to vaccinate the whole community by their spring next year.
Let's hope she's correct.

[Tccp123]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

With Virgin going out of business I'd be keen to see what they're selling their s/h planes for? Buy one, stick it on a block of land and live in it. Instant immunity!

[Beardy]

You would die from the plane food

[BobL]

Graeme, you can's really start those graphs at low case rates.
Try restarting the graphs when they both reach say 10 cases.

[BobL]

How about this from a news site tonight:

“It’s important to note that there has been no known case of people contracting coronavirus on-board an aircraft anywhere in the world. This includes instances where a passenger has later turned out to have travelled while infected.”

This is probably because of their vertical ventilation method. This seems to be aN "elephant in the room" issue that is not being used from hospitals, restaurants ETC.

With Virgin going out of business I'd be keen to see what they're selling their s/h planes for? Buy one, stick it on a block of land and live in it. Instant immunity!

Planes can be brought real cheap in the US. Getting them to where you want "legally" is gonna cost 10's to 100's of $k

[GraemeCook]

Graeme, you can's really start those graphs at low case rates.
Try restarting the graphs when they both reach say 10 cases.

Technically correct, Bob, but it's the overall visual profile that is important. I went for simplicity - using dual x-axis would be rather confusing to some forum items.

[GraemeCook]

Do you think Carnival Cruises and its management will survive?

I very much doubt they'll go broke. Their assets reported as at 2019 are USD45 billion, revenue USD20 billion and a gross profit percentage which would make any CEO drool. They are the biggest player in the cruise business with a stable including Carnival (obviously), P&O, Holland America, Costa, Cunard etc. BTW, they pay no tax, probably as a result of their interest bill.

Whoever's holding their notes would be crazy to call them in. In normal times, it's a very sound business and things will return to normal in time. The market has panicked, as it's wont to do. It would be good buying at current prices but don't expect a divvy for a while.

mick

Up until January I would have agreed with you, but then things changed drastically.

The companies may be based in Miami and traded on the New York and London stock exchanges, but they are incorporated in tax havens and their ships are registered with flags of convenience. They are real parasites and have eroded their political capital.

Now they have close to zero revenue, their major assets, the ships, are either docked or searching for somewhere to dock. Wonder what current "valuation" is?

They have also got a massive number of extremely upset passengers. The law suits will start to flow very soon. Carnival accounts to just under 40% of cruise passengers but almost 80% of coronavirus cases - the lawyers will surely seize on this dichotomy. "why do the other 60% or cruise ships account for only 20% of cases, so far."

I do not think that the cruise market will be so foregiving.

My prediction is that Carnival will file for bankruptcy protection within six months. In the US this is known as Chapter 11 protection.