Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[FenceFurniture]

1/ Assuming we are talking about shutting down EXPORT, rather than rooftop PV entirely, it flies in the face of the free-market economy that one person should be prevented from selling a product in order to protect the sales of another (though it wouldn't be unusual!). The variable pricing structure seems more fair - people export their power for (say) the "spot" price, and have control to stop their exports if they don't like that price (i.e. it goes negative), exactly as the commercial renewable generators can (and do!). If they have batteries they can export at night, and so forth. Encourage people to become part of the solution!

2/ Forcing people to shut down ALL domestic rooftop PV cannot (I would think) be done. But that still means that the market for power during the day is shrinking, which the commercial generators won't like.

3/ With the high retail price of power, more and more people are installing PV to offset the rising costs. This applies not only to domestic, but also to commercial enterprises. I know several small businesses that have installed rooftop PV, and even large companies like Ikea are covering their roofs with panels. This shrinks the market still further.

4/ Given a high uptake of PV, the commercial generators will (do?) struggle. But they are still needed, at the moment, for those days when there is minimal sun.

It is an interesting problem, that has been compounded (caused?) by the industry upping prices to increase their profits. Perhaps, given the technologies currently available and emerging, there needs to be a rethink? Perhaps the days of the large power companies owning the market are coming to an end, and smaller local power sharing arrangements will take over?

I should think that community Redox batteries (the saltwater shipping container type) could just about solve all those problems. The are easily scalable, by all accounts, and so to keep the commercial power producers happy and not having to pay to stay online the number of containers could be increased (or decreased) more or less at will.

Not making use of the renewable power produced on any given day is a crazy notion, to be avoided. Even forcing the commercials to pay to stay online and force -ve prices is crackers.

[Bushmiller]

Warb

I am outlining a reality for the moment.

There are mutiple factors in play with wholesale, retail, profit, viability, projected demand and grid stability all in the mix. I was pointing to the fact that with all the commercial renewables shut down (this being the result of negative wholesale pricing) the minimum fossil fired generation could be 3250MW and the demand on a mild Spring/Autumn day down to 2750MW. I am talking QLD only at this point. Firstly, because it applies to my location and secondly because it is the most extreme of the eastern states. I should also add that it would initially only occur when the interconnector to NSW (worth about 1000MW) is constrained and QLD is unable to export power to NSW.

The rooftop solar situation is both an anomaly and an irony to my mind. However, at least part of the problem must be laid at the feet of those who have implemented the rules to begin with and the failure to move with the dynamic market. They have sat back on their haunches, congratulated themselves on being such good boys and failed miserably to realise the implications of what they have implemented: No vision. I am not advocating that rooftop solar should be shut down. I was merely stating the situation that has unfolded and why.

For the moment I can see why you are aggrieved to only be allowed to export 5KW when you have up to 20KW available. However, when I was at work yesterday, between approx 0700hrs and 1600hrs (don't quote the times as it is only a guide as I was occupied doing other things and was certainly not watching the price all day) you would have had to pay AEMO 4/5c per KWhr for the privilege of generating. It was similar in all states even including Tasmania. It may be that you are not so badly off getting what could be regarded as such a miserable recompense compared to getting next to nothing.

While the thermal generators are indeed required for cloudy days, it is nowhere near as important as for the nights as the system would otherwise go "black!"

Certainly, a rethink is required, but with the market in mainly private hands, I don't see how that will happen without intervention.

Regards
Paul

PS: Hydrogen made from petrol would be worse than just consuming the petrol direct. Hydrogen is a very interesting path, for larger vehicles in particular, but as a tool to combat CO2 emissions it has to be made from a renewable source (through the day when there is an abundance/surplus of solar power?)

[Warb]

I should think that community Redox batteries (the saltwater shipping container type) could just about solve all those problems. The are easily scalable, by all accounts, and so to keep the commercial power producers happy and not having to pay to stay online the number of containers could be increased (or decreased) more or less at will.

As long as it is a long term storage facility, the technology doesn't matter. The problem with batteries, historically, is that they are an expensive proposition. I can store diesel fuel for years with minimal degradation (unlike petrol) and minimal cost, and high energy density. There's a lot of energy in 1500L of diesel, and the tank to store it costs nothing relative to the energy store. Hydrogen, on the other hand, costs much more to store, but was just an example.

The problem with batteries is very simple, and nothing to do with technology. It is simply that if "we" don't differentiate between transient storage, medium term storage and long term storage, I will guarantee that "for economic reasons" we'll use the same storage facility for transient and long term, therefore will be tempted to under provision and will then find that we run out. Then we'll declare that event to be "1 in 100 years" and not fix the problem. It is, sadly, human nature to fail to learn - whether it's the roads falling apart, building standards or anything else, we make a big noise when a "1 in 100 year" event takes place, a year later we forget about it and act surprised when 5 years later the "1 in 100 year" event happens again.......

[Bushmiller]

Not making use of the renewable power produced on any given day is a crazy notion, to be avoided. Even forcing the commercials to pay to stay online and force -ve prices is crackers.

FF

Indeed, but how else is the oversupply prevented?

Take a gander at the QLD prices over this last weekend and note how the average was in relation to max and min figures.


QLD spot market 13 to 15 Oct 23.png

I know you are au fait with the maths, so I don't think I have to add anything.



Also, I should refresh memories and point out that the Callide units 3 & 4 are still offline for repairs. there would be another 500MW (min load between the two units) there as well.


Regards
Paul

[Warb]

The rooftop solar situation is both an anomaly and an irony to my mind. However, at least part of the problem must be laid at the feet of those who have implemented the rules to begin with and the failure to move with the dynamic market. They have sat back on their haunches, congratulated themselves on being such good boys and failed miserably to realise the implications of what they have implemented: No vision. I am not advocating that rooftop solar should be shut down. I was merely stating the situation that has unfolded and why.

For the moment I can see why you are aggrieved to only be allowed to export 5KW when you have up to 20KW available....

Certainly, a rethink is required, but with the market in mainly private hands, I don't see how that will happen without intervention.
PS: Hydrogen made from petrol would be worse than just consuming the petrol direct. Hydrogen is a very interesting path, for larger vehicles in particular, but as a tool to combat CO2 emissions it has to be made from a renewable source (through the day when there is an abundance/surplus of solar power?)

Rooftop PV is interesting, it is one of the few areas where the power (no pun intended) to be self-sufficient has actually become a reality, and hasn't it caused a problem (real or imagined!). Normally the process goes the other way, products are taken by big business and we are prevented (either by law or cost) from doing it ourselves. I could build a car, but I wouldn't be allowed to use it on the road!

FWIW, my annoyance with the 5kW limit isn't financial, I'd happily export my excess power for free. My annoyance is that the system is so broken (AKA lack of vision and planning) that I am wasting power whilst other consumers are being charged 55c/kWh!

I believe, though it was some time ago that I read about it, that the hydrogen "petrol station" concept was to use PV to extract hydrogen from water, and that approach was certainly what I was thinking.

[FenceFurniture]

Indeed, but how else is the oversupply prevented?

I wasn't clear enough: send the commercially generated sparks to the batteries too (yes, I know that means a lot of batteries, but that's what we need anyway).

I don't suggest to have thought that bubble through fully, and nor am I equipped with industry knowledge to do so. I just think we should post-haste get community batteries happening to make use of the sunshine sparks, and to also provide for people who can't have solar panels due to renting, asbestos roof, too much shade etc. The $15,000,000,000 (?) being spent on Hydro 2.0 would produce an awful lot of redox batteries, and probably in less time. Then there's the "surprise" budget surplus of $20Bill that could be invested in our future.

[Warb]

It seems to me that most, if not all, of our problems are caused by the need to support the profits of our existing commercial suppliers, who are in turn holding the "keep paying us or we'll pull the plug" card. I'm not sure how we get out of that! We've dug ourselves a big hole, boys!

[FenceFurniture]

As long as it is a long term storage facility, the technology doesn't matter.

Redox batteries have a lifespan of 25 years, IIRC (in the following vid). I forget how many cycles they can achieve, but it's quite a few.

Reposting:

[FenceFurniture]

It seems to me that most, if not all, of our problems are caused by the need to support the profits of our existing commercial suppliers, who are in turn holding the "keep paying us or we'll pull the plug" card. I'm not sure how we get out of that! We've dug ourselves a big hole, boys!

Yes, every day is bi-polar: we need them at night but not during the day, so they have to be medicated during the day or they get spiteful.

[Bushmiller]

I believe, though it was some time ago that I read about it, that the hydrogen "petrol station" concept was to use PV to extract hydrogen from water, and that approach was certainly what I was thinking.

Warb

I may have misunderstood your direction there in your earlier post. My apologies.

Electrolysis is used to separate the hydrogen out of water and that process is achieved with electricity. The concept of a petrol station using solar power to produce hydrogen is interesting, but I can't see them doing that. At a previous power station (Bayswater) we made our own hydrogen, for use in the generator cooling system and indeed supplied Liddell too, but we used our fossil sourced power.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

Electrolysis is used to separate the hydrogen out of water and that process is achieved with electricity.

It's an interesting area. I read about it some time ago in relation to Toyota's hydrogen powered car, though I recall it was more centred on Europe than Australia. Still, various groups are looking at it, and as a circular system (solar splits H2O, H2 "burns" back to H2O) it is about as green as you can get - as long as the component parts can be made without negative impacts!

This is from last year:

Out of thin air: new solar-powered invention creates hydrogen fuel from the atmosphere | Hydrogen power | The Guardian

[Bushmiller]

It's an interesting area. I read about it some time ago in relation to Toyota's hydrogen powered car, though I recall it was more centred on Europe than Australia. Still, various groups are looking at it, and as a circular system (solar splits H2O, H2 "burns" back to H2O) it is about as green as you can get - as long as the component parts can be made without negative impacts!

This is from last year:

Out of thin air: new solar-powered invention creates hydrogen fuel from the atmosphere | Hydrogen power | The Guardian

Thanks for the link Warb.

I took two items from that in particular:

“Hydrogen is the ultimate clean energy … as long as you have renewable sources of energy to electrolyse the water,” Li said.

This article was amended on 14 September 2022 to make clear that hydrogen produces only water as a byproduct when used in fuel cells. When burned in air it also produces nitrogen oxides.

The first is conditional and the second cautionary.

A good option that warrants more research for the likes of trucks, trains, boats etc. where there is more space available.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

A good option that warrants more research for the likes of trucks, trains, boats etc. where there is more space available.

I was more considering it as a long term energy storage system for domestic or community generators, based on production from excess PV. But for vehicles, did you know you can (in theory, at least) buy one? In fact there are/were at least two companies marketing them.

Mirai 2023 | Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle | Toyota AU

I briefly looked at them (on the web, not in person!) when we moved to the Canberra area, because there is or was a hydrogen "petrol station" in Fyshwick, to fuel the massive fleet (20 vehicles!) of hydrogen powered Hyundai's that the ACT government was buying. It is/was a trial system, but I recall it being available to private car owners "by arrangement".....

[Bushmiller]

I was more considering it as a long term energy storage system for domestic or community generators, based on production from excess PV. But for vehicles, did you know you can (in theory, at least) buy one? In fact there are/were at least two companies marketing them.

Mirai 2023 | Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle | Toyota AU

I briefly looked at them (on the web, not in person!) when we moved to the Canberra area, because there is or was a hydrogen "petrol station" in Fyshwick, to fuel the massive fleet (20 vehicles!) of hydrogen powered Hyundai's that the ACT government was buying. It is/was a trial system, but I recall it being available to private car owners "by arrangement".....

Warb

Our son is in Norway. They have had H2 vehicles on the road for some while. Also, after 2025 the Norwegians will only be able to buy new cars that are electric (I think the H2 is for larger commercial vehicles).

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

Also, after 2025 the Norwegians will only be able to buy new cars that are electric (I think the H2 is for larger commercial vehicles).

Norway is a small country with lots of green electricity, so EV's are an excellent fit! Australia is a much larger country, with (at the moment) far less green energy. Over here, EV's are a great fit in cities, especially as you can hire a vehicle if you have the need for an occasional long drive, but they still suffer from the emissions issue that they are being charged from fossil fuel (this will change with time). For those living in rural areas they are still not 100% suitable - the 600km round trip to Sydney and back is beyond the comfortable range of most EV's, and a "quick charge" (assuming a charging station is appropriately located and available) makes it a long day. This will all change, but we need more renewables and more charging points! Australia will get there, and I suspect my wife's next car (now we live only 30minutes from a city) may well be an EV.