Safe places to park money?

[Greg Q]

Not many of the technical analyists are willing to make projections anymore as we seem to be in a different statistical universe now.

One observer made the comment "too late to sell, too early to buy" which I think captures it nicely. Consumer spending will coast downwards so there won't be much evidence yet. We are about to test the estate agents' foolish mantra regarding property values I think.

I work in an industry that is a canary in the economy's coal mine, and we aren't feeling too good right now. Our grip on the perch might be slipping already.

It's time for the governments of the world to get back into the bank business I think. I don't mean buying out the peckerwoods, I mean let 'em burn and open up a new lender down the street.

[Pheonix]

My retirement savings are rapidly depreciating
I'm not going to make that money back I'll run out of years,thanks to all the greedy b.....ds
that lent people money who have no intentions of paying it back
What do I do?' take out whats left and buy another car,maybe I will, at least I'll be able to see some value for my money.

[Toolin Around]

I always surprised at the statements about how Australia will do just great when everyone else around is falling down because Australia is tied closely to China. Does everyone of these people think Australia and China exists in a vacuum. China is only doing well cause they're an export country and exports are drying up as their two largest customers USA and Europe are not in a buying mood.

Can someone please, without parroting the usual rhetoric of the polies and smut peddlers, explain how is China going to continue on without most of its source of income.

[Greg Q]

I'm with you, Toolin'...I don't buy it. The Chinese obviously had a huge ramp-up before the Olympics domestically, but even they said months ago that growth would slow domestically.

I guess that we are all again aware of how much the world's financial system is a shell game now, performed by hucksters and shills. Since there is far more money lent than is on hand the system cannot cope with decreased trust. The pollies' statements are just happy noises meant to lull folks into not thinking that maybe the money is best stuffed into the mattress.

I think now that we have two dim futures: Either a recession that is almost a depression in scope and severity, or a prolonged period of stagflation as we had in the 70's. The U.S. Fed is going to print so much money that they are flirting with Argentina-like inflation while at the same time having zero or negative growth. (Best case scenario at this point)

I would like to hear from a currency exchange expert if the above means that the U.S. dollar will again decline in value...it has to, doesn't it?

Greg

[Calm]

I always surprised at the statements about how Australia will do just great when everyone else around is falling down because Australia is tied closely to China. Does everyone of these people think Australia and China exists in a vacuum. China is only doing well cause they're an export country and exports are drying up as their two largest customers USA and Europe are not in a buying mood.

Can someone please, without parroting the usual rhetoric of the polies and smut peddlers, explain how is China going to continue on without most of its source of income.

EXACTLY MY POINT

[m2c1Iw]

I always surprised at the statements about how Australia will do just great when everyone else around is falling down because Australia is tied closely to China. Does everyone of these people think Australia and China exists in a vacuum. China is only doing well cause they're an export country and exports are drying up as their two largest customers USA and Europe are not in a buying mood.

Can someone please, without parroting the usual rhetoric of the polies and smut peddlers, explain how is China going to continue on without most of its source of income.

TA I agree the slow down, recession or depression which ever you prefer will dampen China exports. However China still has enormous capacity for internal consumption an example is their car industry which continues to expand and is yet to satisfy the market there.

So while the commodity markets are in freefall I do not think the prices reflect the possible growth figures in China. Nobody would argue that Australias short term future is highly dependent on continued growth in China and it is a little worrying when we here reports of iron ore shipments being delayed, just hope that's more a credit issue or the steel producers running stocks down to protect their positions.

While the gloom on the markets is going on there is still upward pricing pressure on business inputs both materials and labour so unfortunately business profits will be under pressure in the immediate future. Increased profits and dividends will be required for a stock market recovery. As a side issue I suspect Malcolm Turnbull is correct in that the carbon tax is now a dead issue, I doubt Australian voters will cop a new tax in the middle of a depressed economy.

Then what would I know

Mike

[Toolin Around]

TA I agree the slow down, recession or depression which ever you prefer will dampen China exports. However China still has enormous capacity for internal consumption an example is their car industry which continues to expand and is yet to satisfy the market there.

So while the commodity markets are in freefall I do not think the prices reflect the possible growth figures in China. Nobody would argue that Australias short term future is highly dependent on continued growth in China and it is a little worrying when we here reports of iron ore shipments being delayed, just hope that's more a credit issue or the steel producers running stocks down to protect their positions.

While the gloom on the markets is going on there is still upward pricing pressure on business inputs both materials and labour so unfortunately business profits will be under pressure in the immediate future. Increased profits and dividends will be required for a stock market recovery. As a side issue I suspect Malcolm Turnbull is correct in that the carbon tax is now a dead issue, I doubt Australian voters will cop a new tax in the middle of a depressed economy.

Then what would I know

Mike

But why do people think the Chinese and Indians are any different to any other nation. When things slow down for them i.e. less orders from the US and Europe, they will begin to tighten their belts, as they have already started doing. They're searching the world now for countryies to take all the orders the US and Europe have said don't send. People there whether the governemnt informs them or not will talk, rumours ripple through their cities of the world slow down and they themselves will go into self preservation mode and spend less on the things that are not essential i.e. they will put off that first car and keep the bicycle tires pumped up for a few more years... It's the normal reaction that has gone on since time immortal everywhere when the cycle reaches this point. That's what I mean in why does everyone think the Chinese and Indians has a damn the torpedos full steam ahead type of attitude when no one else does.

[m2c1Iw]

That's what I mean in why does everyone think the Chinese and Indians has a damn the torpedos full steam ahead type of attitude when no one else does.

Here is a link quoting a Chinese official commenting about the state of affairs.......

Regarding commentators one thing I have heard which I agree with is that it is important that Oz consumers continue to consume. 2/3 of our economy relys on spending so a dramatic slow down will cause a painful recession with all the suffering that goes with it.

So to answer your original question all the spin about China is exactly that and intended to calm both investors and consumers but I come back to the point, our situation is dependent on how well China adjusts to changing export markets and who knows the answer to that.

Mike

[Toolin Around]

So when you buy a new tv buy one for me also will ya . Cause I ain't spending nothin on anything I don't absolutely need - like tools.

I see Rudd's under a lot of pressure to back bank deposits as there seems to be an exodus of money to overseas banks that are backed.

[m2c1Iw]

Cause I ain't spending nothin on anything I don't absolutely need - like tools.
.

Hmm........I'm kicking myself I've got a shopping list loaded on the Lee Valley site and was saving up to push the buy button, actually trying to figure out how to smuggle then into the shed without the finance minister finding out. That was way back when the $ was 98c.

........So what do I do cut the list or delay the purchase oh what to do. Perhaps I should email Rob Lee for some financial guidance

Mike

[Metal Head]

Not many of the technical analyists are willing to make projections anymore as we seem to be in a different statistical universe now.

Well I am and as you can see from the image provided which is a monthly line chart, is that the All Ords is still in an upward trend. It would only said to have changed direction if it closes below the support line around the 3700 mark. So from a TA point of view it can still fall around 200 and still be technically said to be going upwards. However if it does close below the support line then even I will start praying for the future and I am an atheist.

[Toolin Around]

Well good news all deposits in Australia are backed by the government for the next three years. I was about 4 days away from pulling everything out and putting it overseas as I suspect thousands have already done.

[Calm]

Watched the first 5 minutes of Koshy and the same guys that said the Australian dollar would have parity or 105 with the US dollar in the short term are still yapping.

How the hell do they get credibility? Why do people keep listenign to them??

Cheers

[Greg Q]

Well I am and as you can see from the image provided which is a monthly line chart, is that the All Ords is still in an upward trend. It would only said to have changed direction if it closes below the support line around the 3700 mark. So from a TA point of view it can still fall around 200 and still be technically said to be going upwards. However if it does close below the support line then even I will start praying for the future and I am an atheist.

I am speechless at the attendant irony of your post. Does this feel like a continuation of an upward trend really?

(I hope you are right and I am wrong, but...)

On Australian banks: I was watching CNBC Saturday...the head of investments fro Fortis Bank was listing the next wave of failures and he mentioned that they were going short on Australian banks as he felt they were all at substantial risk. I was struck at how different his statment was to what we are hearing here. I am finding so many things at which to be aghast.

[bitingmidge]

I am speechless at the attendant irony of your post. Does this feel like a continuation of an upward trend really?

Of course it doesn't feel like it, which is why it's important not to rely on senses of feel or emotion. Like a good pilot in cloud, rely on the instruments!

I have a very small share portfolio comprising three blue chip companies and one suss gold miner. I've just done the sums out of curiosity as I've seen 50% of the face value disappear this year, and I'm still 10% ahead of CPI for the time I've held those shares (16 years), and I've taken a tax paid dividend each year.

I'm no investing genius, in fact probably the opposite, but reading newspapers gives you a "feel", seeing what sort of debt a company has and looking at the return it provides to its shareholders in both capital growth (retained assetts as opposed to share value) and dividend are probably better indicators than a bunch of speculators manipulating the markets!

That would not be the case if I'd had my money in the bank. Tax on interest, deduct inflation and your money isn't keeping up with the CPI in real terms.

So there you have it, and even it the index does dip below that theoretical line, the trend will still be up!

Cheers,

P