Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Warb]

......the notorious underground Hellfire caves in the UK

I grew up a few minutes' walk from those caves, yet never actually went in (as far as I can remember!).

[Bushmiller]

I have mentioned before that the highest demand is nowadays in Summer with Winter having taken second place for some time. Autumn and Spring are the low points. This chart of spot prices for the year so far shows an interesting trend as Spring, a period of low demand, approaches. Up our way the winter has been mild. It would seem that the wholesale market is becoming less expensive: Will that translate into reduced retail prices? Ummm....Don't think so.

Spot Price average 2023 at 6 Aug.png

Regards
Paul

PS: I should have added that chart above is for the QLD market only.

[AlexS]

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, but in the interests of "open government" it now seems to be tippy tippy top secret, or you have to pay for it (even though you've paid for it to be collected.)

[GraemeCook]

I haven't checked, but if you can't find the storage levels on the Hydro site, it may be worth having a fossick around on the BoM website. All that data used to be freely available, ....

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

[woodPixel]

Quite !

Google cannot find it either. The limited data that I could find was on the OTTER website - the Office of the Tasmanian Economic Regulator.

It is all slight of hand stuff. The data has been published, but not in a logical place. If you ask why data has not been published they can truthfully answer: "We did, you looked in the wrong place." The subtext, of course, is: "Silly you. Why would any honest person be checking on what we are doing?"

“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

[doug3030]

“But the plans were on display…”
“On display? I eventually had to go down to the cellar to find them.”
“That’s the display department.”
“With a flashlight.”
“Ah, well, the lights had probably gone.”
“So had the stairs.”
“But look, you found the notice, didn’t you?”
“Yes,” said Arthur, “yes I did. It was on display in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying ‘Beware of the Leopard.”

“Zaphod did not want to tangle with them and, deciding that just as discretion is the better part of valor, so was cowardice is the better part of discretion, he valiantly hid himself in a closet.”

[FenceFurniture]

The birds are outside chirping and tweeting as if its spring.

Today I noticed that the big Rhododendron next to the house has not only started flowering (6 weeks ahead of normal) but that there were parts of the flowers already dropped to the ground.

I'm in a t-shirt and no socks.

I do hope, for the sake of the family, that the T-shirt is not wet.

[Bushmiller]

Well, after all our comments on Tasmanian self-sufficiency,i was surprised to see this article:

'You couldn’t make this stuff up’: Irony as Tasmania's 'battery of the nation' is flat (msn.com)

I have to say I don't hold Sky News in high regard as I find their reporting highly biased, as opposed to moderately biased with many other outlets. In fact everybody has at least some bias. However, I felt some obligation to mention my prejudice, which I hasten to add is not as extreme as that of SWMBO, who has anything to do with Murdock banned from her devices.

If this report has any truth in it, and I do say "if" until it is corroborated by another media outlet without any affinity to the Murdock press, it would appear that the Tasmania power company is a slow learner or failing that, just plain greedy. They sold power to the mainland in the lead up to the Bass Strait DC connection failure, which admittedly they could not have foreseen, but now they appear to have sold power to the mainland again and left themselves short.



Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I saw a comment today (somewhere) that we were not taking nuclear power seriously. It cited the main barrier to nukes as the initial cost, which the article went on to say was insufficient to discount them. I really didn't pay too much attention as it seemed the author was pushing his own barrel or didn't know what he was talking about.

Then a few moments ago I saw this:

Nuclear waste dump King hit, Indigenous owners rejoice (msn.com)

It appears, not unsurprisingly, that nobody wants one of these in their back yard. Bear in mind that this facility in SA was really only intended for medical nuclear waste such as is produced at Lucas Heights. The lack of feasible waste disposal sites means that Nuclear stations are obliged to store their used (partially used that is) rods on site in the containment areas. It was those containment areas that exacerbated the problems at Fukushima and Chernobyl.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Is there a mounting campaign forming in the background following on from my comment yesterday.

The Coalition's Ted O'Brien has been making noises:

Coalition prepares to go nuclear in search of votes (thenewdaily.com.au)

In theory Nuclear is an answer, but in practice the proponents ignore or gloss over the fundamental hurdles.

Labour minister Cris Bowen was asked for comment:

“We look forward to the costings and the locations of the nuclear power stations when the shadow minister releases them,”
The advantages, for Australia, include local access to the fuel, minimal emissions and a clear path towards zero emissions.

The disadvantages include:

High initial cost, long lead time for construction, location difficulties, safety issues, operating costs (as opposed to running costs as the fuel once running is certainly cheap), humungus decommissioning costs and the perennial issue of what to do with the nuclear waste and indeed the contaminated plant at the end of life.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Well, after all our comments on Tasmanian self-sufficiency,i was surprised to see this article:

'You couldn’t make this stuff up’: Irony as Tasmania's 'battery of the nation' is flat (msn.com)

I have to say I don't hold Sky News in high regard ...

Must say that I agree with your assessment of Sky News.

The article is essentially a beat up, or FAKE NEWS as their idol would say. I'll just repeat my post from last week:

... Back in April 2016 the total storage level got down to 12.8% - that is not a misprint! But it recovered to 40% by early October - six months later.
https://www.themercury.com.au/news/p...99e5c1a794c57d

But now it is still at 40% - seven years later. ...

In that period Tasmania has been in a drought and the Hydro has probably sold more electricity than was prudent, but the situation is not dire. It was dire in 2016 when storage levels got down to 12.8%.

Less than 1% of electricity in Tas is gas generated and as best as I am able to penetrate Hydro's wall of silence, reputably they keep the Tamar Valley gas powered plant "ticking over" as the cheapest way of mothballing it.

The stuff about exclusion zones around high voltage transmission lines is just false - genuine FAKE NEWS. Farmers routinely crop and graze under transmission lines; they are not allowed to erect buildings.

I think the purpose of this article was in the last two sentences including: "There will be electoral punishment right across the board".

[Bushmiller]

Thanks Graeme

I am still sufficiently naive to think that outright lies are not told. Certainly the farming comment I thought was strange. Also the pricing structure used by Tasmania in the wholesale market does not reflect that they are short of power. I might have to consider an embargo on the Murdoch press and fall into line with SWMBO. I don't do this because I wish to evaluate where everybody is coming from. I should have known better seeing as how Abbott's ex-lieutenant was at the helm!

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Deleted

[GraemeCook]

Thanks Graeme

I am still sufficiently naive to think that outright lies are not told. Certainly the farming comment I thought was strange.

I am reminded of that quote from H L Mencken almost one hundred years ago:
"No one ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."

(The Sun, Baltimore, 18 September 1926)

Perhaps we should apply a similar logic when assessing the competence of yournalists?
But I think we should make a exception with a certain news organistion which practices overt political manipulation from an ultra right wing perspective.
And their journalists, and the journalist's directors, are following orders from on high or anticipating Mencken.

Also the pricing structure used by Tasmania in the wholesale market does not reflect that they are short of power.

True; but what does it reflect?

I drew this to your attention back in mid-May. The Hydro seems to be dumping electricity on the spot market in peak periods every day at prices well below true market price. Why? Here is the current Spot Market report from AEMO:

Electricity Spot Prices 3 - TAS.jpg


You will not the apparently fixed low price during the peak period from 5.00 - 11.00 pm last night - first red circle - and you will note that the regulator has anticipated that same low fixed price tonight - second or green circle. Why? Also remember that these are spot prices and not contract prices.

I have been trying to guess why it is so; a number of possibilities, including:

1. Secret deal where the state government has directed the Hydro to sell electricity to Aurora/Transend at a directed maximum price,
2. Incompetent clerk at the commodity trading desk,
3. Corruption,
4. None of the above.

I might have to consider an embargo on the Murdoch press and fall into line with SWMBO.

I stopped buying newspapers about ten years ago.

[Bushmiller]

You will not the apparently fixed low price during the peak period from 5.00 - 11.00 pm last night - first red circle - and you will note that the regulator has anticipated that same low fixed price tonight - second or green circle. Why? Also remember that these are spot prices and not contract prices.

I have been trying to guess why it is so; a number of possibilities, including:

1. Secret deal where the state government has directed the Hydro to sell electricity to Aurora/Transend at a directed maximum price,
2. Incompetent clerk at the commodity trading desk,
3. Corruption,
4. None of the above.

Graeme

I am at a complete loss to explain this strategy. It is clearly deliberate and has been ongoing for some months so that rules out your No.2 hypothesis. I did run it past our Traders, but they only confirmed what we see without any other explanation.

Regards
Paul