Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[FenceFurniture]

It seems to me that we are not ALL that far away from a nicely integrated system being available.

I should have added the "being available".

A lot of wishful thinking there, not everyone will have a BEV due to supply constraints in manufacturing and not everyone will have solar panels due to any number of other problems, they don't own the home, apartment living, no off street parking etc.

Keep in mind most (the whole two or three of them) BEV's V2L is limited to 3.6kw and that is not going to keep a house very warm during the hours before bedtime even in Oz let alone OS where it gets seriously cold.

I'm talking V2H or V2X. V2L is really only useful on the job or a trip away when just have to have freshly brewed coffee available anytime, and just can't stand the thought of using a portable gas stove.

[woodPixel]

BobLs Italian Village (BIV) creates a new idea of what "the grid" may be.

For those on a 20Ha farm, a DIY is needed. Its obvious.

But for us city slickers who live in shoe boxes, the option of a solar panel or battery install is not there.

What we need, akin to the BIV, is an investable resource. If I cannot spend 10k or 50k on solar and batteries, perhaps I can INVEST the same in another project? A community battery, a community solar install, or even something bigger.

We should have an option, via the ASX, or a specialised sub-board, where I can put my dough.

[FenceFurniture]

I reckon there will always be a use for a small-medium size house battery when the sun aint shining and your car is not at home or charging.

Maybe. It would vary for everyone though, and could be easily analysed with a spreadsheet: how many kWh do I think I'll use per year for the life of the battery, and how much does the battery cost and live for
VERSES
how much will it cost to simply use the grid for those periods, and trade it off against whatever feed-in tariffs are available.

This situation could be where modular batteries come into play, provided it's simple enough to manage the swapping out (they'll be mighty heavy for some time yet).

[FenceFurniture]

But for us city slickers who live in shoe boxes, the option of a solar panel or battery install is not there. What we need, akin to the BIV, is an investable resource.

Yes, community batteries are sure to become a thing.

[doug3030]

V2L is really only useful on the job or a trip away when just have to have freshly brewed coffee available anytime, and just can't stand the thought of using a portable gas stove.

I can do that now with my diesel Colorado. Heck, we were using 12 volt jugs in Army vehicles back in the 1970's, probably a lot longer, but that's when I was doing it. I have 12 volt and 240 volt available on the road all the time. I have a 40-litre Engel fridge in the back running 24/7. I run a freezer in the back too when on longer trips, also 24/7.

We had a power blackout last year sometime, I plugged the modem and Julie's work computer and desk lighting into the back of the ute and she continued working from home and her bosses didn't know a thing about it until she told them.

Had the blackout lasted much longer I could have set up the camping solar panels and been able to run all the essentials and a few luxuries from the Auxiliary batteries in the back of the ute.

I know that this is not the integrated system that is being discussed hare but the point is that a lot of the same ends can be met with comparatively small batteries and solar panels but it shows how much can be done already with a lot less than a full-on car battery.

[Chris Parks]

I should have added the "being available".


I'm talking V2H or V2X. V2L is really only useful on the job or a trip away when just have to have freshly brewed coffee available anytime, and just can't stand the thought of using a portable gas stove.

That does not change anything if the maximum draw is 3600 Watts.

[Chris Parks]

BobLs Italian Village (BIV) creates a new idea of what "the grid" may be.

For those on a 20Ha farm, a DIY is needed. Its obvious.

But for us city slickers who live in shoe boxes, the option of a solar panel or battery install is not there.

What we need, akin to the BIV, is an investable resource. If I cannot spend 10k or 50k on solar and batteries, perhaps I can INVEST the same in another project? A community battery, a community solar install, or even something bigger.

We should have an option, via the ASX, or a specialised sub-board, where I can put my dough.

It's the wild west and will be for the next decade. Everyone is coming up with thousands of ideas and none of them are going into universal use because everyone thinks their pet idea is the answer to the world's problems so no constructive and lasting decisions are made.

[GraemeCook]

Heck, we were using 12 volt jugs in Army vehicles back in the 1970's

Yep, and all designed to Mil Spec, and only costing $500 each - in 1960's dollars.

[FenceFurniture]

That does not change anything if the maximum draw is 3600 Watts.

It's only V2L that has that limitation. It would seem that V2L is designed for having 240v power away from home, or to be used into the home for an emergency situation. V2H is designed to run the whole house.

[Chris Parks]

Can you show me where I can find the specs on V2H because I can't find them.

[Bushmiller]

A link that explains some of the new EV bi-directional charging technology already available in some countries (UK for example) and should arrive on Australian shores at some point in the future.

V2G vs V2H vs V2L - A Guide to Bidirectional Charging in Australia | CarsGuide

One issue that I see is the balancing act that needs to be addressed. From an owners point of view the amount you return to the grid, if you are in the fortunate position to do this, has to be balanced against your likely use of the vehicle. AEMO usually have a fair idea of how much power is available at any given moment and a pretty good estimate of how much power is required by the Eastern seaboard. The return of electricity to the grid under the circumstances described above would be at the whim of the vehicle owner. That does not really make for a stable grid or a sound economic basis for the major players in power generation.

In an extreme situation we could see many renewable sources (solar, wind, hydro and possibly something else too) of power generation without the commensurate storage other than car batteries. I don't really think that is likely as car batteries, particularly if limited to 3.6Kw (I don't really know about that, but it was mentioned in an earlier post), would be unable to cope with the demand from industry. Clearly there is a lot of development to be done, both with the technology and the application.

If a person is in the fortunate position of being able to afford an EV, it seems to make sense to hold off until bi-directional capability is available. Interesting that Tesla does not offer this, presumeably because of the conflict and adverse effect on sales of their other product, the Tesla wall. I would expect the wall to go the same way as that one in Berlin. In any event, The Tesla Wall is too small, too limited (an hour) and too expensive. Musk will put it on the cars as sales drop off.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Can you show me where I can find the specs on V2H because I can't find them.

I cannot find anything specific, either, Chris, although the general debate has been going on for over a year.

Essentially a Tesla Powerwall stores 13.1 kWh of electricity whereas the longest range Tesla S has a 100 kWh battery. By using a small or large part of that car battery capacity in the house, you can effectively have the equivalent of a Powerwall without significant extra cost. You just need an effective energy management system! Remember, cars are parked, usually at home, for most of their life. They are only driven for 2 or 3% of the time.

One of the challenges is in the absense of a link between the wholesale and retail markets for electricity. Wholesale prices fluctuate during the day with supply and demand. Retailers sell you electricity at a fiiixed price and buy from you at a heavily discounted fixed price. A look at the demand and spot pricing for Queensland for the last 48 hours will illustrate this.

Electricity Spot Prices - QLD.jpg

My reading of these curves, remembering that roof top solar is not measured, is:

• Demand, green curve & RHS scale, peaks daily during breakfast and dinner preparation,
• Price, mauve curve & LHS scale, peaks daily at approximately the same time,
• Lowest demand is during day time when roof top solars are contributing significantly,
• The "excess supply" in day time actually forces spot price into the negatives,
• Night time demand is actually higher because of absense of solar input

An electric commuter car returning home at 6pm will plug into the period of highest demand and actually exacerbate the problem.

Now, if we lived in an ideal world, that electric car could:

• Charge with roof top solar when available,
• Feed into the grid during periods of peak prices,
• Top up from the grid when prices were low,
• Maintain a minimum commuting range in the batteries - 100 or 150 kms?
• Have a over-ride prior to longer trips.

Just like when cars replaced horses, we will have to develop an entire new infrastructure for electric vehicles.

[GraemeCook]

Something weird is happening with electricity wholesale prices in Tasmania.

Basic economic theory says that prices are the intersection of supply and demand.

• The evening peak demand happens from 5.30 pm each day,
• It get dark in Hobart at around 5.30 pm now,
• Solar panels do not work in the dark,
• So, peak demand and no solar input, then prices should soar,
• But the pricing in these peak demand periods bottoms out,
• That bottom price is $54.28 Mwh - competitive prices always fluctuate, they are never fixed like in this graph.

Electricity Spot Prices - TAS.jpg

Interpretation: The only explanation that I can think of is that someone is deliberately manipulating the market. But why? And who?

Explanation: The electricity producer (Hydro Tasmania), the distributor (Transend) and the retailer (Aurora) are all owned by the Tasmanian government. It could be a device to secretly transfer funds from the producer to the distributor or retailer. But why?

AAnother explanation: Is there another plausible explanation? Have I overlooked the obvious?

[Chris Parks]

A link that explains some of the new EV bi-directional charging technology already available in some countries (UK for example) and should arrive on Australian shores at some point in the future.

V2G vs V2H vs V2L - A Guide to Bidirectional Charging in Australia | CarsGuide

The big problem with any move to use cars as a battery is the lead time it takes to design and build a car and then get it to market. All the V2 stuff now coming to market was started 5 years ago and any manufacturer who has not got the facility in a BEV is now 5 years away from supplying it. The other big thing is getting it from the car to the house, to make it a worthwhile proposition means some pretty hefty supply wiring has to be installed not some 20amp wire that would supply a high capacity GPO.

[Bushmiller]

The big problem with any move to use cars as a battery is the lead time it takes to design and build a car and then get it to market. All the V2 stuff now coming to market was started 5 years ago and any manufacturer who has not got the facility in a BEV is now 5 years away from supplying it. The other big thing is getting it from the car to the house, to make it a worthwhile proposition means some pretty hefty supply wiring has to be installed not some 20amp wire that would supply a high capacity GPO.

Chris

You are right with the supply wiring. However, up to 32a outlets are available in single phase with appropriate wiring and, of course, with three phase you can have whatever you want. It is a good point that this is all additional cost. However, it must be doable because it exists in other countries already.

Regards
Paul