Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Mr Brush]

Good video - I learned a bit. As the man said, Tesla just stuck car battery technology in a box on the side of your house. There was always a question mark over the fact that the payback period was about the same as the warranty, which didn't inspire confidence. The BYD LFP battery was one of the main reasons I chose Atto 3 car; it's cheaper, safer, and far more forgiving of charging routine (quite happy being charged to 100%, and almost completely discharged, without any damage - not the case for Tesla). Significantly, Tesla are already using BYD LFP batteries in some of their models. This just illustrates the rate of change in battery technologies; I think BYD are going to release the first car with sodium ion battery shortly.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgVOcOYWNgg

Sad fact is, no matter how fast I drive, I'm sure there will be better batteries available within 2-3 years before I rack up 1 million km......lol. Higher capacity, faster charging rates, lower cost. It's a moveable feast. I also think V2G will be a reality in 2-3 years (already exists in the UK), which will REALLY shake up the electricity market. Give me 10kW of solar on the roof plus a 70-80kWh battery in my EV, also connected to the house, and they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.

[doug3030]

Give me 10kW of solar on the roof plus a 70-80kWh battery in my EV, also connected to the house, and they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.

Nice pun - I hope it was intentional.

[FenceFurniture]

they can stick their grid (and "supply charges") where the sun don't shine.

Err, wouldn't that be completely counter-productive?

I also think V2G will be a reality in 2-3 years (already exists in the UK),

If that means Vehicle to Garage, like V2H (Vehicle to Home) then that's supposed to be happening here this year, with a bunch of models being released. O'course, it may be delayed...

[Mr Brush]

Let's say it costs $20,000 to replace the battery in the car. That's about 33c per Wh to purchase a battery that goes into a difficult shape of a vehicle, not a nice neat rectangular box.

W.T.F?

It's worse than that - I'm told the cost to replace the 60kWh LFP Blade battery in BYD is ~$15000. Which makes Tesla Powerwall look even more of a rip off. Anyone who installs a Tesla Powerwall now is basically buying a much earlier battery technology, which is already out of date, for an exhorbitant price. But....clearly some people don't mind paying through the nose to get a pretty shiny box with a TESLA logo on it

[Mr Brush]

I remember the first time I saw a Tesla car at a show many years ago, and asked the obvious question..."Ummmm, why can't I use the car battery to power my house?"

Don't worry, we'll get there. This is bigger than Elon.......

[Mr Brush]

Err, wouldn't that be completely counter-productive?


If that means Vehicle to Garage, like V2H (Vehicle to Home) then that's supposed to be happening here this year, with a bunch of models being released. O'course, it may be delayed...

V2G = vehicle to grid, one step further. All the big juicy car batteries form part of a local micro grid for power storage, shared amongst several homes. I can imagine the power utilities fighting this to the death.

[woodPixel]

I was extremely surprised by the price of the BYD ATTO 3.

Just looked it up. Not too bloody shabby at all.

I'm used to big horsepower guzeleine engines, but I've drive a mates Tesla and it was a rocket. 150kw isn't the same as a petrol, they seem to have a flat power curve.... its maximum power from the first rev. A 100M and 250M in / sec would be a far better indicator of "power". (e.g my ancient HSV has 300KW and 600NM of torque, but it cannot be compared)

EVs are the absolute future. V2G is the absolute future.

Im seriously envious of people being able to buy these things.

Quiet, fast, economical, sexy-looking and NO STINK.

I can rapidly see a day where my dinosaur will be taxed out of existence.

[Mr Brush]

There is a $3k rebate on EVs in NSW, which took the price of long range Atto 3 down to about $46000 on the road. I believe EV rebate is now $6k in Qld. Real world range is 350-400km per charge, and I charge exclusively from home solar (better to put the sun juice into the car for free motoring than back into the grid at the crappy feed in tariff we get now). People have recorded 0-100km/h times of around the low 7 seconds for Atto 3 in Sport mode; it does restrict power slightly off the line to prevent wheelspin from the huge instant torque, but once rolling the throttle response is excellent. More than enough performance for an old codger like me .

It was time to get rid of my 9 year old ICE car which had 150,000km on the clock, and I figured I would undoubtedly be driving an EV at some time in the next 5 years, so no point in getting another ICE vehicle. Might as well get in now and get used to the experience of living with an EV.

Side note I was surprised how hard it was to sell a MANUAL ICE car - the number of people who can drive stick has fallen off a cliff !!

[Mr Brush]

A mate of mine drives big V8s, and I took him for a drive in Atto 3 when I first got it. He insisted on popping the hood to take a look; the expression on his face was priceless. "But......there's nothing in there, nothing to tinker with !"

[havabeer69]

Something I did get from that article is that there may be room for a couple of different types of battery in a given vehicle. One that is quick to recharge, but low on other qualities, and another for long driving. Perhaps there's even room to remove one battery suite for short commutes and replace it for longer journeys. *At least until the "ultimate" battery is invented, which may be a little while yet.

Another thing that occurred to me wrt to small planes is that 3 : 1 ratio they were talking about for take off : cruising. Surely a ground based battery (of whatever type is appropriate) could be employed to fling the planes into the air in the same way Navy Jets are flung off Aircraft Carriers. (you know, big hook, rubber bands, and scooped take-off pads)

wouldn't it be a TON easier to just have have an umbilical cable that is connected to the mains power which detaches from the plane just as the wheels leave the ground. then you just roll it back up and connect it to the next plane.

[FenceFurniture]

I'm used to big horsepower guzeleine engines

Sell it while you can Ev sorry, EV. The bum is going to drop out the price REALLY soon.

and NO STINK.

Clearly you haven't been a passenger with Mr B driving....

I can rapidly see a day where my dinosaur will be taxed out of existence.

Nah. They just won't be produced, and the market will dictate the price of petrol (astronomical within 5 years or so I reckon, due to declining demand)

It was time to get rid of my 9 year old ICE car which had 150,000km on the clock, and I figured I would undoubtedly be driving an EV at some time in the next 5 years, so no point in getting another ICE vehicle.

Yes, good move. ANd while you may have missed benefits in upcoming rebates, you'll have gotten a better price for the ICE than you will any time from now on.

In my opinion we are right at the turning point/threshold. Anyone buying a new ICE vehicle now is crackers. I was just discussing this with my partner yesterday. She wants another car in about 1-2 years, which will clearly be an EV. I need a newer vehicle any old time but because I do such ridiculously low kms (1000-2500 per year) an ICE car that has been tragically devalued will suit me just fine for a few years. Running costs are not really an issue for me. I spend more on repairs for my 23 yo ute than I do on petrol!

[Bushmiller]

The ICE (internal combustion engine) has a few failings: How to get sufficient air into the motor is one, which is why supercharging and turbo charging have become popular in recent times, but the fundamental hiccup is the power delivery. The ICE has to build up engine revs and maximum power is not delivered until that happens. An electric motor has, for all practical purposes, almost instantaneous maximum power. This is why the EVs are so fast off the mark. Any drag racer will point out that it is more important to develop early speed than a high terminal velocity.

There are countless videos on You Tube of Teslas smashing muscle cars down the ¼mile strip. However, make that a ½mile strip and the result may be a little different. EVs have been upsetting the ICE for years. The Tesla is also helped by having all wheel drive.

Look up the White Zombie on You Tube for an EV doing the same demolition of muscle cars more than ten years ago. It was a street legal Datsun 120 converted to electric. He started with NiCad batteries and then went to Li when they became available.

Regards
Paul

[Mr Brush]

Roaring along in a muscle car, and getting passed by a silent Datsun 120Y, would be enough to make anyone turn to religion

[Mr Brush]

As soon as home storage technologies, vehicle to home, vehicle to micro grid, etc. really start to kick in (and we've barely started yet) the smaller number of people left dependent on grid power are each going to have to pay a bigger share of the costs to keep grid distribution networks running.

Our current house (rebuilt just 3 years ago after the bushfires) has all the energy efficiency features we could reasonably incorporate at the time - double-glazed throughout, very well insulated, passive solar design, solar system on roof (although I wish I'd gone for larger), heat pump hot water service, EV charger running off solar. However, even just this short period later, there are a few things I'd do differently if rebuilding now; MUCH more solar generation, induction rather than (bottled) gas cooktop (how quickly gas has gone out of fashion?), house wiring arranged to allow easy isolation from the grid to allow for V2H from EV to name but a few. The rate of change is accelerating very fast.

[woodPixel]

.... However, even just this short period later, there are a few things I'd do differently if rebuilding now; MUCH more solar generation, induction rather than (bottled) gas cooktop (how quickly gas has gone out of fashion?)..... The rate of change is accelerating very fast.

Induction is incredible.

I read a recent article on the BBC that all the top chefs have (essentially) switched to induction.

Solar, its modular! Whack more on!

On change, its occuring FAST now... REAL FAST.

He insisted on popping the hood to take a look; the expression on his face was priceless. "But......there's nothing in there, nothing to tinker with !"

oooooooo... I wouldnt be TOO sure of that!

I've been watching the scene for a few months and the Lightning-Rod crowd are getting sseerriioouuss power and acceleration upgrades out of their EVs after market.

I watched one dude who EV'd an old Beetle and its is so crazy powerful that he had to strengthen the motor housings directly to the transmission and put on a little set of wheelie-bars ITS SO COOL!!!

I think there will be a HUGE industry in converting cars to EV.

.... and if we want to see wild, this chap was busted for doing 100 kph on his scooter recently. If some rando can manage do it, every kid is doing it .... Canberra man who rode e-scooter at 100kph before trying to flee police sentenced to one month in jail - ABC News

Watch the speed with which he pulls away from the cops. ZZIINNGG.....