Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Chris Parks]

EV's all tend to be at the top end of the market because there is more margin in the car for the manufacturer to help recoup costs. The OEM's are being forced into making the change to electric via legislation which is hugely punitive and would send the average company broke in short order if they don't meet the emission/sales targets set for the major European markets. What is going to be supplied to the rest of the world is yet to be made clear and that is possibly where the Japanese see an opportunity because there is a lot of this world that cannot support the cars that will be made for the European market after 2030.

[ajw]

Just got an email from my provider telling me that my usage charges are going up 27% in two week’s time. Why does that say about the future of the market? My daughter got a similar email from her provider - up 22%. They have reduced the daily access charge by 10 cents…. Very generous. How will people manage such major price hikes? Are other forum members seeing this from their providers?

cheers,

ajw

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[ian]

EV's [at least currently manufactured ones] all tend to be at the top end of the market because there is more margin in the car for the manufacturer to help recoup costs. The OEM's are being forced into making the change to electric via legislation which is hugely punitive and would send the average company broke in short order if they don't meet the emission/sales targets set for the major European markets. What is going to be supplied to the rest of the world is yet to be made clear and that is possibly where the Japanese see an opportunity because there is a lot of this world that cannot support the cars that will be made for the European market after 2030.

I'm not so sure about this conclusion.

Many ICE cars only travel to and from childcare, school, the shops or train station each day. (The average Australian car travels less than 40km per day, corresponding to a journey radius of less than 20 km.)
However, after considering that the "average" Sydney household generates around 8 trips per day -- Sydney is the city I am most familiar with -- if one pair of trips is associated with one person travelling to and from work, the other 6 trips are associated with the other household member making an average journey with a radius of about 5 km.

These sorts of short journeys really only require that a vehicle be able to carry the daily/weekly shopping and/or a few passengers, that the vehicle occupants be protected from the weather (heat, cold, rain), and arrive at their destination neither sweating nor out of breath.

Given that e-bikes and electric scooters are only beginning to penetrate the market, how likely is it that these sorts of small battery electric vehicles will, in time, come to dominate -- at least in terms of numbers -- the Australian market by 2030?

Of course, after heavy goods vehicles (greater than 20 tonnes), medium goods vehicles (10 to 20 tonnes), light commercial vehicles (4.5 to 10 tonnes), there will always be a place for the larger, greater range electric cars (and SUVs), but I don't think that the typical low mileage electric vehicle needs the sort of daily range that is not currently available with a pedal assisted E-bike (e-bikes are currently exempt from registration fees, are road tax exempt, and can use bike lanes!) or e-scooter.

I'm currently thinking that the "typical" daily commuter vehicle might evolve into a form of short range e-scooter -- with the larger longer range BEV reserved for weekend journeys and other longer trips.

The down side of this transport "transition" will be that there will be many fewer plug-in battery pack EVs (standard model 3 Tesla's come with a 50kWh battery) to provide load balancing to the grid after the sun stops shining. This is the exact opposite of what is currently being assumed by the electricity grid managers.

[BobL]

We live in South Perth (on the opposite side of the Swan river to the CBD) and walk the dogs on the South Perth foreshore anytime between 6 and 10 am. Over the last couple of months as Covid restrictions have been lifted were seeing more cars free-parked in the streets and people walking into the city, or using bikes, e-bikes or e-scooters - it's only ~5km to the middle of the CBD via the narrows or Causeway bridges . I stopped to talk to a 20 something e-scooter commuter getting his scooter out of huis car - he said he lives 30km from the CBD and where he parks on the foreshore is only about 3km from his office. He said he can bring his scooter into his office (whereas he's not permitted to bring a bike/e-bike in) and he can charge the battery at the office. Interesting arrangement, OK his 3km e-scooter commute won't last too long - South Perth council are increasingly installing ticketed or timed parking right across the foreshore but all he has to do is park a bit further out.

[FenceFurniture]

Apparently they have only been legal in Perth since December 2021 (or maybe <10kph was ok before then). You can still only ride them on private property in NSW regardless of their power or speed, but I guess that will change.

[Bushmiller]

Apparently they have only been legal in Perth since December 2021 (or maybe <10kph was ok before then). You can still only ride them on private property in NSW regardless of their power or speed, but I guess that will change.

E-Scooters are ubiquitous in Brisbane including models just parked up ready for hire in the street. In the parks there is an issue, to my mind, with scooters and pedestrians sharing the same footpaths. As a pedestrian you need to most watchful before changing direction!

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

I should clarify what I wrote, by saying that BEV's are at the top end of the market I mean that the initial push will be in that sector and as the 2030 date approaches we will see a large move by the OEM's into the lower priced end where the margins are much thinner. The automotive industry is going to cop a huge cold bath as its after sales serving and repairs income is severely reduced but they have not woken up to that in Oz.

[Chris Parks]

I'm currently thinking that the "typical" daily commuter vehicle might evolve into a form of short range e-scooter -- with the larger longer range BEV reserved for weekend journeys and other longer trips.

It will take a huge change of mind to convince the car buyer of that. Mazda have released a limited range vehicle as you have described and they can't give them away because everyone sees the range and says no thanks. With Sydney expanding this is becoming a problem for those living on the outer fringes such as myself. A Mazda would be marginal for me to travel to my old place of work and it is so highly priced I could buy a Tesla 3 and hardly notice the difference. Mind you the Mazda is built many times better than the Tesla and having been in both of them I much prefer the Mazda. Elon's QC is abysmal and he does not care because he can sell every vehicle Tesla make. Mazda in the US are trying to get around the short range issue by offering a free ICE car to every buyer for longer trips for limited times a year.

[woodPixel]

Mazda in the US are trying to get around the short range issue by offering a free ICE car to every buyer for longer trips for limited times a year.

This is INCREDIBLY smart.

When I was in Sydney I was bopped from behind coming down onto the Spit bridge from Warringa (the left corner with that hideous blind street). Car was in the shop for a bit.

The insurance company (QBE!) gave me a stipend to use for a rental. Being a Holden driver (tall and chonkii!) SWMBO rang them and asked what they could do. They gave me a brand new car off the lot for something like $43 a day.

I was amazed.

Soon after, we travelled to Tassie. Same deal. Holden we more than happy to rent us a car. So we flew down. It was a hell of a lot cheaper than the rental companies. They did say there should be an upper limit on kms though, but it wasn't unreasonable, more than enough for a travelling holiday for a couple of weeks. I don't recall the cost, but it must have been cheaper than taking our own down.

The arrangement struck me as blindingly obvious.

It was clearly the future of car "ownership".

[woodPixel]

We live in South Perth (on the opposite side of the Swan river to the CBD) and walk the dogs on the South Perth foreshore anytime between 6 and 10 am. Over the last couple of months as Covid restrictions have been lifted were seeing more cars free-parked in the streets and people walking into the city, or using bikes, e-bikes or e-scooters - it's only ~5km to the middle of the CBD via the narrows or Causeway bridges . I stopped to talk to a 20 something e-scooter commuter getting his scooter out of huis car - he said he lives 30km from the CBD and where he parks on the foreshore is only about 3km from his office. He said he can bring his scooter into his office (whereas he's not permitted to bring a bike/e-bike in) and he can charge the battery at the office. Interesting arrangement, OK his 3km e-scooter commute won't last too long - South Perth council are increasingly installing ticketed or timed parking right across the foreshore but all he has to do is park a bit further out.

VERY smart.

This is apparently a thing here in Canberra too.

Parking here is a bit contentious. People see it as a country town and the idea of paying for parking is an obscenity.

Canberrans, being sometimes irrationally tight, will park in the 'burbs and do exactly this... the use eScooters. They are everywhere.

There is even a plan where the scooters are leased (via a boop-creditcard) and left all over the place (there is a bit of bruhaha about the mess).... but the idea is that people who wish to get from one side of the city centre to the other just grab a scooter and off they go. Apparently the system works very well.

The region where I live (a new town centre) has a HUGE uptake of electric bikes, scooters, eTrail-bikes and some weird mono-wheel like skateboards. All the school kids fly past each morning screeching in delight. They certainly go a hell of a lot faster than 10km! I'd recon some are 40 to 60... no doubt they've been souped up somewhat.....

[woodPixel]

hehe. Look at this thing....

1000 watt motors, 35km distance and 50km/h... kogan.com

It would be excellent fun.

Battery minibikes, scooters and motorcycle like things are certainly part of the future.

1-b3d32b69aa-trnscobula6bk.jpg

[GraemeCook]

Just got an email from my provider telling me that my usage charges are going up 27% in two week’s time. Why does that say about the future of the market? ... -

It tells me that your retailer is increasing the prices because he thinks that you will pay it; there is no alternative.

Interestingly, the Australian Energy Regulator collects and collates the wholesale price of electricity in the eastern states grid. For the quarter ended 31 March 2022 with prices quoted in $’s per megawatt hour:

• · In NSW the contract price varied between $76 and $95.25 averaging $84.43, which is substantially lower than the average price in the same quarter in 2019 ($107.59),
• · Queensland contract prices were substantially higher than NSW,
• · Victoria and South Australia contract prices were significantly lower than NSW,
• · Tasmanian contract prices are not released publically as there is only one significant producer,
• · The average spot price for NSW was $89 which was essentially the same as in 2017,
• · Only Queensland was higher at an incredible $171,

Daily Q1 base contract prices and traded volumes - New South Wales | Australian Energy Regulator
https://www.aer.gov.au/wholesale-markets/wholesale-statistics/quarterly-volume-weighted-average-spot-prices-regions

[GraemeCook]

... The region where I live (a new town centre) has a HUGE uptake of electric bikes, scooters, eTrail-bikes and some weird mono-wheel like skateboards. All the school kids fly past each morning screeching in delight. They certainly go a hell of a lot faster than 10km! I'd recon some are 40 to 60... no doubt they've been souped up somewhat.....

Same here, e-scooters everywhere and they seem a lot of fun.

Only serious bitch that I have heard is from a neighbour who uses both manual and motorised wheelchairs:

• "how do you move an abandoned scooter out of the way, from the seat of a whheelchair?"
• "With 15 years wheelchair experience, I am legally limitted to 8 kmh everywhere, but inexperienced scooterists can do 50."
• The default speed limit in Tasmania is 50 kmh unless therwise posted,
• We live in a heritage suburb with a posted speed limit of 40 kmh,
• But that limit is not posted on footpaths, so the default speed limit there is 50 kmh.
• cyclists appear to exceed that limit!

[Bushmiller]

Graeme's general post (#552) and links prompted me to comment that the QLD market at the moment is ballistic as far as the spot price is concerned. The following shot is of the overall market on the East coast and shows how little solar is in play (presumably because of cloud cover):

NEM 11 May 2022.PNG

Bear in mind the above is just a snapshot.

I think the second quarter of 2022 will show very different spot prices, which certainly appear to have increased significantly. I don't think I am being mischievous when I say it is because storage has not kept up with solar installation and thermal power has decreased slightly because of unavailability. Autumn is traditionally a period of low demand and consequently low prices. That is not at all what we are seeing.

This is a price snapshot (I think Tassie was $253 at the same period, but did not fit on my snapshot)

NEM price snapshot 11 May 2022.PNG

Bear in mind that earlier in the day prices were a lot higher. The QLD price converted to KW/hr would be 31c: This is the wholesale price and probably more than most people are paying at the retail level.



Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

hehe. Look at this thing....

1000 watt motors, 35km distance and 50km/h... kogan.com

It would be excellent fun.

1-b3d32b69aa-trnscobula6bk.jpg

You're right, it would be excellent fun, and I covet one (never had a scooter as a kid ). However, the max load is 100kg, so that prolly rules out anyone tall and chonki, and rules me out if I buy more than about 5-6kg of food. Although I suppose I could go naked and save another 2 kg), but think of the gravel rash...