Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Chris Parks]

When you own 160 vehicles (or something) you can only drive each one so far!

As ICE vehicles are phased out the fuel will become considerably more expensive too, I would imagine, as they make less and less each year.

The Tesla is his daily drive and he travels a lot but I get your point.

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

It's good to see a company looking to the future and it seems they have been doing that for at least 12 years. A few other companies, and governments, could take inspiration from that.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... For the owners who replace their vehicle on a regular basis, this won't be a problem, particularly as the cost of EVs reduces with the combination of technology and sheer volumes, but for those that have older vehicles or only buy second hand, what will be their options? ...

As an economist, I have been trying to consider an even broader question. What will be the impact of electrical vehicles on the second hand market? The answer is: "I haven't a clue."

With ICE cars many businesses and individuals change their cars on a predetermined schedule - 2 years or 40,000 kilometres is a common metric, other 5 years and so on, some on accumulated repair/maintenance costs, others on a whim. What about electrics?

Most current electric cars have a warrantee of 7 to 10 years on the battery. Then what? How many batteries last much more than 10 years? What is the replacement cost of a full set of batteries for an electric car? I have tried to find out and have failed - its a secret - there is massive debate on the web on this point. But is it relevant? the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped 80% in the last 10 years - what will the price be in 10 years time? Will it be higher or lower than the value of a 10 year old vehicle? Will the life span of a vehicle be one set of batteries? Or will one replace technologically redundant batteries with future technology?

"I haven't a clue."

[FenceFurniture]

No, I've no clue either Graeme. I suspect that on one hand they won't depreciate as much as ICE cars due to no gearbox, simpler engine, less parts in general to wear out, but on the other hand, in the first ten years of "serious" takeup of EVs, there will be so many new developments that they will probably depreciate faster than ICE cars. Although I suppose those new developments will be largely in batteries rather than drivetrain. One hopes that a used up set of batteries will be easily interchanged with whatever the new tech of the time is. I can see battery tech improvements going on for many decades yet.

[woodPixel]

I think cars are going to go the same way as planes - there will be a transition.

Think about Sydney cars during peak hour, creeping along all burning fuel. Its madness. A combo-car with a battery and an electric motor will allow all that noise and pollution to be gone. The electric bits can putter around, the petrol for the big trips (or when the juice runs out).

I drove today and was behind an hybrid/electric Toyota corolla (?), it pulled an impressive clip. I've a 6L HSV that thumps out 255kw at the wheels and that Corolla accelerated like the wind. Nice!

There are many new shops converting big old dino-juice guzzlers like mine to electric. Its turning into a big thing. Rip out the engine, drivetrain and the car is half the weight. The battery packs and motors bolt in, plus some wiring tomfoolery. I personally think this will be HUGE. Old cars, which have more style, will become highly sought after.... here is an example: Revolt Systems

This BEAST puts out 450kw and 800 NM of torque. .... Far. Out.!

REVOLT-MOTOR.png
It won't take long for businesses to realise the potential of after-market change overs.

I was looking online for a car for the son... learning to drive and hates the Nissan Pulsar I acquired for him (its a tidy car, but has no PIZZAZ!).... now I saw a very decent BMW and an excellent Mercedes, both elegant, but lots of Km's, but only $6-7k. Now, if one were to rip out all the guts and put in electrics, you'd have a nice modern looking car with modern safety plus refreshed guts. Nice!

As a bit of dystopian thought - insurance companies could also enforce "learner limits" or "P Plate limits" on power output easily enough too. Just flick a switch. Creeps my skin thinking like this, but I can guarantee they are!

[woodPixel]

Most current electric cars have a warrantee of 7 to 10 years on the battery. Then what? How many batteries last much more than 10 years? What is the replacement cost of a full set of batteries for an electric car? I have tried to find out and have failed - its a secret - there is massive debate on the web on this point. But is it relevant? the cost of Li-ion batteries has dropped 80% in the last 10 years - what will the price be in 10 years time? Will it be higher or lower than the value of a 10 year old vehicle? Will the life span of a vehicle be one set of batteries? Or will one replace technologically redundant batteries with future technology?

"I haven't a clue."

Ah! I know!

A friend of mine bought an original Toyota PRIUS second hand. It was a classic "little old lady car" that didn't have a scratch.... $1500

FAR OUT!

Problem was the battery was dead as a doornail and throwing up a thousand warning lights. A real Xmas tree! She was quoted a fortune to "fix it".

Bugger that! Told him to buy it. We ordered a battery re-pack from the USA ($1300, plus a swap-fee that is refundable) and it took me only the day to swap it out... it wasn't trivial, but compared to a regular engine swap its a diddly, with no grease! There must have been 30,000 bolts..... it is ABSOLUTELY something a thinking person can do (NOT a "consumer")

Swapped it out, flipped the Mega Switch of Death and just like Frankensteins Monster... its aaaallllivvvveee!

The pack had to be ordered in as there wasn't an AU supplier. That will change.


Of a note, I also checked the brake pads and rotors. They still looked new. Crazy!

[Chris Parks]

Batteries are an unknown at this point in time but there is an aha! point about car batteries generally not known and that is the manufacturers are reserving part of the battery from every day use and as the used part starts to degrade they release a bit more of the reserved part to keep up the efficiency and range. As for hybrids they won't happen in large numbers because who wants to have the complication of ICE with all its potential problems and add another layer on top of it. They will fade out quickly as the Zero Emission date has to be allowed for in the design cycle which is around 3 to 5 years and that date is generally 2030. Approaching that date all the old ICE vehicles will not be replaced so the change over period will start in earnest well before 2030. Of course none of this applies to Australia you say but if ICE cars aren't made then we have to buy what is made but we aren't stuck to a hard date just yet. It will be interesting to see what happens if we have a change of Government at the upcoming elections as the Labour side of politics has shown more interest in electric cars and that could change things. Strangely it does not seem to be a big agenda item this time round compared to last time.

[Chris Parks]

Ah! I know!

A friend of mine bought an original Toyota PRIUS second hand. It was a classic "little old lady car" that didn't have a scratch.... $1500

FAR OUT!

Problem was the battery was dead as a doornail and throwing up a thousand warning lights. A real Xmas tree! She was quoted a fortune to "fix it".

Bugger that! Told him to buy it. We ordered a battery re-pack from the USA ($1300, plus a swap-fee that is refundable) and it took me only the day to swap it out... it wasn't trivial, but compared to a regular engine swap its a diddly, with no grease! There must have been 30,000 bolts..... it is ABSOLUTELY something a thinking person can do (NOT a "consumer")

Swapped it out, flipped the Mega Switch of Death and just like Frankensteins Monster... its aaaallllivvvveee!

The pack had to be ordered in as there wasn't an AU supplier. That will change.


Of a note, I also checked the brake pads and rotors. They still looked new. Crazy!

So buy Prius with stuffed battery, fix Prius and flip it = profit!

[woodPixel]

So buy Prius with stuffed battery, fix Prius and flip it = profit!

I suspect there will be a fair bit of this.

I did it after having watched a few youtubes and finding a service manual on b-ok.org .... so it wasn't just an attack-with-spanners thing. I was weary of the potential for mayhem, but had to admit, there was very little to it. All the electrics are shielded and the thing doesn't go live until two massive throw-levers are pushed down.

There was a disconcerting amount of plastic however. But it was all ABS, so there's recycling in mind.

One thing I did note was there is a fan to the side of it. Just like ones fridge. Its a PITA to get to and Id imagine that $5 fan must be the cause of many lights, overheats, premature dead batteries and slow charges. I saw it as an obvious design fault. At minimum there should have been a basic filter for it. Oh well, Im sure they fixed that in later models!

[FenceFurniture]

Meanwhile, the urgency increases.

Capture.JPG

[GraemeCook]

I was suspicious of FF's graph as it looks too regular to be true, so I went back to the source.
Global Monitoring Laboratory - Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases

It checks out. Thanks FF.

[Bushmiller]

Brett

That graph on CO2 concentration is "slightly" disturbing. That comment is of course tongue in cheek. The concentrations in fact have risen slightly in the last couple of decades while not being completely exponential. It is disturbing because this is the period that the world at large has begun to recognise climate change as a reality, has begun to take measures to check CO2 and continues to tolerate denialists. I guess the detractors would say, "See, it hasn't made any difference," but I believe the reality is that we have to do more, do it quickly (as far as putting strategies in place, because there is no quick fix) and stop poking fun at small island nations that potentially will go under water.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Topical because we have been talking H2 and storage, but don't get overly excited because it is only at the discussion level.

WA to look at hydrogen power target (msn.com)

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

another solution for long term storage is available: Rechargeable Molten Salt Battery Freezes Energy in Place for Long-Term Storage - Scientific American

and here is the in-depth non-pap paper: A freeze-thaw molten salt battery for seasonal storage


If there's trouble reading the links due to paywalls, use this plugin, it bypasses petty much everything: magnolia1234 / Bypass Paywalls Chrome Clean * GitLab

Sprenkle envisions something like tractor-trailer truck containers with massive batteries inside, parked next to wind farms or solar arrays. The batteries would be charged on-site, allowed to cool and driven to facilities called substations, where the energy could be distributed through power lines as needed.

[Bushmiller]

I thought this was an interesting synopsis of the current state of play for the EV market.

The final barrier stopping Australians from embracing EVs is information (thenewdaily.com.au)

In brief, it outlines the take up of EVs in Oz compared to the rest of the world, the number of vehicles sold as a percentage of total sales, the typical ranges on a charge, the incentives offered by individual states and number of models available amongst other information.

Interestingly Tesla sold about 80% of the EVs. That points to EVs being more affordable at the up market end of the spectrum.

One aspect troubled me and that is the tendency, primarily, for owners to charge their vehicles at night. This really nullifies the benefit of EVs as solar generation is out of the equation and wind may be minimal. Some incentive should be made to charge during the day on an "off-peak" type of arrangement similar to water heaters and pool pumps. However, the "off-peak" period now has to be moved to daytime, if it has not already been implemented.

Regards
Paul