Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Beardy]

Was only talking about this to a mate the other day - what is the evening peak load going to look like when everyone gets home, chucks on the AC, turns on the oven and plugs in their electric car? Considering how many vehicles are in an average neighborhood, each with their own EV 15A charger drawing around 10A or more each is going to add up real quick. A lot of clients want us to install fast chargers which can draw up to 40A on a single phase supply, but often their mains don't have the capacity (house built pre 1980). Obviously they won't all be plugged in at the same time or drawing high current for the entire night, but we are certainly moving maximum demand on domestic consumer mains closer to capacity. I put 3 phase onto my place mainly for the shed machinery, but certainly had this in mind for futureproofing.

I am thinking that these charging outlets will need to be on a timer or a load monitor to perform the charging with excess power or in off peak times in the early hours of the morning . As long as it is good to go for the next day that would work fine

[havabeer69]

I am thinking that these charging outlets will need to be on a timer or a load monitor to perform the charging with excess power or in off peak times in the early hours of the morning . As long as it is good to go for the next day that would work fine

no different to your electric hot water system that only comes on at night.

[ian]

Was only talking about this to a mate the other day - what is the evening peak load going to look like when everyone gets home, chucks on the AC, turns on the oven and plugs in their electric car? Considering how many vehicles are in an average neighborhood, each with their own EV 15A charger drawing around 10A or more each is going to add up real quick. A lot of clients want us to install fast chargers which can draw up to 40A on a single phase supply, but often their mains don't have the capacity (house built pre 1980). Obviously they won't all be plugged in at the same time or drawing high current for the entire night, but we are certainly moving maximum demand on domestic consumer mains closer to capacity. I put 3 phase onto my place mainly for the shed machinery, but certainly had this in mind for futureproofing.

Here's a thought, perhaps electric vehicles (when they finally achieve more than their current miniscule market penetration) will grant Australia's coal fired power stations a [near permanent] new lease of life.
As we all know, the sun doesn't shine at night -- so no solar energy at night.
The wind also typically drops at night. Meaning that unless there is a stupendous number of wind turbines all attempting to spin all through the night (and then sitting idle during the day when the sun is shining) -- coal fired power will regain its king like power. Which is very not good for greenhouse gas emissions.

I can't see pumped hydro ever reaching the scale required to allow a 100% electric vehicle fleet to be charged during the night. As far as I know there is just not enough suitable sites that can be developed. And don't get me started on battery technology.

[Bushmiller]

Here's a thought, perhaps electric vehicles (when they finally achieve more than their current miniscule market penetration) will grant Australia's coal fired power stations a [near permanent] new lease of life.
As we all know, the sun doesn't shine at night -- so no solar energy at night.
The wind also typically drops at night. Meaning that unless there is a stupendous number of wind turbines all attempting to spin all through the night (and then sitting idle during the day when the sun is shining) -- coal fired power will regain its king like power. Which is very not good for greenhouse gas emissions.

I can't see pumped hydro ever reaching the scale required to allow a 100% electric vehicle fleet to be charged during the night. As far as I know there is just not enough suitable sites that can be developed. And don't get me started on battery technology.

Ian

I believe the electricity market dynamic will change .... again!

The peak period used to be during the winter when I first worked in power stations. Today it is the summer thanks to the widespread adoption of air conditioning. Traditionally, night time was a low period and certain concessions on pricing were offered to make use of surplus power such as off-peak water heating.

Perhaps the incentives will change to daytime for such things as water heating, pool pumps and charging your electric vehicle. This would further lessen the night demand and reduce, but by no means eliminate, the need for storage systems.

I too am sceptical of the ability of pumped hydro: I just don't think there is enough and during dry times (El Ninos outnumber La Ninas by four or five to one) the situation would be close to diabolical.

I mentioned a few posts back that overall electricity production would likely have to step up. These are some quotes I picked up by a report from AEMO.

"Coal-fired power generators are expected to shut down nearly three times faster than previously anticipated and will have exited the National Electricity Market (NEM) entirely by 2043, according to an updated plan from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)."

"Demand for electricity is expected to double between now and 2050 to account for both the growth in demand and the shift away from other sources of energy, such as natural gas and petrol."

"Large-scale renewable generators like wind and solar farms will need to increase nine-fold, while smaller scale solar (such as rooftop and community solar panels) will need to grow five-fold."

The full story can be read here:

Early exit for coal as National Electricity Market prepares for renewable future (msn.com)

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

EV charging energy demands may not turn out to be quite as bad as it seems.

Most cars are not on the road all day, or don't sit out on streets during they day, they sit at home, or in various forms of car parks. Smart employers that provide parking could add charging stations, as will places like shopping centres etc, so some cars won't need to be charged at night.

The other major factor is very few EV batteries will need to be completely recharged from scratch - the average Australian vehicle only does 36km a day.

Here's a quick BOTE calculation - someone might want to check this - I'm suffering from concussion from a heavy base saucepan falling onto my head.
IF a 70KWh battery gets you 400k that means a daily average of 6.3 kwh is needed for recharging .
As of Jan 2021 there were about 20 million registered vehicles in Australia.
If all of these were electric (and they won't, and vehicle replacement won't happen overnight) this means and average of 120 GWh of energy will be needed every day for vehicle recharging
x 365days = 44 TWhr /yr

Total annual electricity production in Australia in ~200 TWhr so a solely EV fleet recharging will require about a 20% increase in total electrical supply. If half the vehicles can charge during the day (conservative in my estimate, especially if suitable incentives are provided) using excess solar, then it comes down to about a 10% increase not that much in the overall scheme of things.

The side benefits are not to be sneezed at.
- significantly reduced vehicle particulate emissions (we still need to talk about tyres) - hence improved health and quality of life - thereby saving money
- improved balanced of payments from not needing to import as much fuel.
- more secure energy sources for vehicles - ie reduced reliance on OS suppliers for vehicle fuel.
The fact that the Govt is not all over the latter 2 aspects shows the power of petroleum companies.
I looked up the amount of fuel imported for 2020-21. https://www.energy.gov.au/sites/default/files/Australian%20Petroleum%20Statistics%20-%20Issue%20302%20September%202021.pdf
For petrol alone it's around 8G.
Diesel is 22 GL, but most of that will be for agriculture and industrial purposes rather than daily commuter vehicles.

[woodPixel]

Further to BobLs excellent post....

-- EVs are storage batteries too
-- I'd imagine they benefit from not being charged to 100% every time, every day, but (perhaps) about 80%
-- Excess juice can be syphoned off 20 million cars into the vehicles that need it

I'd imagine most EV aren't simply dumb repositories. I'm vaguely aware that Teslas send a bunch of telemetry and diagnostics back home each night to The Great AI that does Something with it....

I'd also imagine that the government might set a base of information and open standards that need to be applied to all EV's, just like they did with OBD2 diagnostics. Since manufacturers refused to play nice with OBD diagnostics, governments forced them to. EVs nightly diagnostics might be the same.

SO!

--> Why not charge them up while the sun shines and the wind blows....
--> And suck them down to 60 or 80% when it doesn't....
--> Pay EV owners c/Kw

And everyone wins.

If one does expect a long trip, or set of trips, this coming day/week then log in to the management tool and select "fill er up!"....

In bobLs case, 20 million batteries is a lot of reserve... along with home batteries, home wind generators and other crafty micro generators.

[markkr]

And furthermore, supplying the sort of infrastructure required for BobL's solution is not expensive.

All it would need would be a standard double GPO per pair of car spaces, probably with rooftop solar directly on the carpark.

After all, 6A current -> ~1.4KW charging rate -> 6-7KWh in around 4-5 hours. So nothing more than a standard power outlet.

[ian]

And furthermore, supplying the sort of infrastructure required for BobL's solution is not expensive.

All it would need would be a standard double GPO per pair of car spaces, probably with rooftop solar directly on the carpark.

After all, 6A current -> ~1.4KW charging rate -> 6-7KWh in around 4-5 hours. So nothing more than a standard power outlet.

Some examples of electric vehicles:
BMW i3 -- Battery 42.2 kWh, Range 160 km -- infrastructure required 9.6 kW (4x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 4.5 hours.
BMW iX -- Battery about 680 kWh, Range 470 km -- infrastructure required 9.6 kW, charge time 11.5 hours.
GM BOLT -- Range about 400 km -- infrastructure required 7.68 kW (3.2x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 10 hours.
Kia Kona -- battery 78 kWh, Range about 240 km -- infrastructure required 4 kW (1.7x what a 10A fuse can support), charge time 19.5 hours.

If you are using your roof top solar to do the charging, you really should dispense with the DC to AC converter.
Wire the power points to deliver DC from the roof panels.

So I will strongly disagree with your assessment that the infrastructure is "not expensive".
AFAIK, all those vehicle "chargers" will require a dedicated circuit wired back to the main electrical panel.

as an example, 6A charging a 42.2 kWh battery at 1.4 kW/hr will take about 30 hours to fully charge the smallest battery (BMW i3) among those example vehicles.

[markkr]

What you have posted Ian is absolutely correct, except my understanding from Bob's post was that he was referring to recharging of that day's usage, which is only the 6-7KWh required for the mean 36km driven in typical urban daily use (the majority of usage). This sort of 'trickle charging' would not be appropriate for long distance travel.

The double inversion is a valid point, but the intent of my post was to posit as simple a solution as possible from the point of view of installation for widespread use of the excess daytime available PV output that I understand Bob was referring to.

[Chris Parks]

The charger is built into the car it is only the supply that needs installation.

[BobL]

At an average of only 36km (6.3kW) a day, most cars won't need to recharge at 10A.
To recharge overnight.6.3kWh can be done at 0.5kW over 12 hours.

Most people don't fill up every day - most fill up say about once a week AND the tank is usually not empty. You'll need to get used to going home and plugging in. Car might not charge till 3am.

[Bushmiller]

At an average of only 36km (6.3kW) a day, most cars won't need to recharge at 10A.
To recharge overnight.6.3kWh can be done at 0.5kW over 12 hours.

Most people don't fill up every day - most fill up say about once a week AND the tank is usually not empty. You'll need to get used to going home and plugging in. Car might not charge till 3am.

Bob

As I mentioned, the dynamic will change. Cars will charge during the day at preferential rates not during the night. It occurred to me that we could see charging facilities similar to parking meters. Just a supposition as i have not heard of this being proposed.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

I feel you are all getting yourselves into a tizzy.

The dynamics will change.

One will leave the car plugged in 100% of the time. It will "sell" electricity when expensive, charge (buy) when cheap.

It seems trivial to log into a server, or use the cars Ap, that can manage all this and tick a box the equivalent of:

-- charge only when rates are cheapest
-- sell when high
-- Im driving to PERTH, fill er up cap'n
-- Drain my House Battery and pump it into the Beast

Just like you don't drive around with your fuel tank full all the time, neither will EVs.

BushMiller is right about the Parking Meter chargers. I saw these in Denmark. They work EXACTLY as you'd expect. The vehicles supply a buffer to the cities grid and one receives free parking. Otherwise you are .... charged.... ba-dum-tiss!

[ian]

What you have posted Ian is absolutely correct, except my understanding from Bob's post was that he was referring to recharging of that day's usage, which is only the 6-7KWh required for the mean 36km driven in typical urban daily use (the majority of usage). This sort of 'trickle charging' would not be appropriate for long distance travel.

The double inversion is a valid point, but the intent of my post was to posit as simple a solution as possible from the point of view of installation for widespread use of the excess daytime available PV output that I understand Bob was referring to.

I understand that BobL was talking about the average daily kms. Not the mode (most frequent km value) nor the median (the middle value of km travelled). I understand that the average is calculated by dividing the total kms travelled in the last year -- as recorded on NSW Pink slips -- by the number of days in the year.
So on that basis, the average ICE vehicle travels just over 13,000 km/year --> using BobL's average of 36 km per day.

To use your own excess solar panel output to charge an electric vehicle, the vehicle has to be parked at your home and plugged into your own roof top panels. Not that easy to do in certain inner city suburbs where the majority of parking is 'on street' and few properties have roof top solar fitted -- for reasons which include the property is rented or a unit.

I believe the typical vehicle is used during the week to commute to work, the local train station or the shops.
If the vehicle is being used to access the local train station, plugging it in to trickle charge in the middle of the night -- using wind, or nuclear generated electricity -- is almost certainly viable.
BUT if it's being used to commute to work or go to the shops, the roof of the employment location or the your shopping centre and it's associated car park is not large enough to supply the power the office or shops need for lighting, cooling, etc., PLUS also charge an electric vehicle.


Comments

[Beardy]

I can’t help but think EV’s as we know them won’t be around long and we will transition to some form of fuel cell.
This talk of an average of 36k a day is just a statistic so is misleading to how vehicles get used here in Australia. Those sort of travel patterns are fine for city folk commuting to the shops or train station but doesn’t cut it for the broader community
The infrastructure to accommodate the EV is substantial so we need to make sure that is the direction the technology is heading.