breaking covid rules

[GraemeCook]

Really good summation, Warbs; brings together what we are hearing from many sources.

I note that the debate has jumped from the delta strain to the omicron strain. There are ten Greek letters between those two - epsilon, zeta, eta, theta, iota, kappa, lambda, mu, nu, and xi. Am I right in assuming that World Health have identified and sequentially named ten other variants of covid, but these have not yet been sufficiently prominent to receive media coverage?

... my mother's favourite Christmas drink was a "snowball", so today I'll be playing Devil's Advocaat........

Custard, in a glass.

... How long do we keep opening up and shutting down in the face of a virus that is constantly evolving? When, if at all, do we decide that we just have to live (or die) with it? ...

This is an incredibly polarised and politicised question, almost impossible to debate without (illogical) emotions being triggered. On a very simplistic level, the loony left is saying "keep everything locked as someone might get sick or even die" and the rabid right is saying "open up everything, we cannot afford lockdown." Of course, reality is somewhere between those extremes.

Preliminary economic indicators seem to be suggesting that the world economy has found ways to continue in spite of lockdowns, and those countries that have locked down have generally done better than those societies that have remained more open. [Aus and NZ have both done better economically than US and UK.] I think it may be because people like Trump/Biden and Boris have grossly underestimated the economic costs of sick people and dead people.

[Warb]

Custard, in a glass.

Fizzy custard, and my dad used to throw in a shot of brandy.....

Preliminary economic indicators seem to be suggesting that the world economy has found ways to continue in spite of lockdowns, and those countries that have locked down have generally done better than those societies that have remained more open. [Aus and NZ have both done better economically than US and UK.] I think it may be because people like Trump/Biden and Boris have grossly underestimated the economic costs of sick people and dead people.

I'm not convinced, at present, that we have any real idea of the economic outcomes. It largely depends on who is doing the analysis (as always) and what they are looking at. In Australia we are seeing (locally, and it's being reported across the country) a resistance of people to return to work (it is suggested they've become used receiving benefits and not working), resulting in shortages of staff. I know many businesses that are having trouble getting staff, either their previous employees or replacements. Equally we are still seeing and hearing the "due to covid" line being used to excuse everything from lack of service to lack of stock. Prices are increasing, presumably to counteract reduced stock movement (sales), with the result that at least temporarily the bottom line for many businesses is still OK, but how long can price increases be maintained? Presumably at some point the buyers can no longer afford to pay more... Unless we get another inflation/wage increase spiral which is just playing with numbers!

I have a sneaking suspicion that all the politicians, looney left and rabid right, are still just hoping that by some miracle it will all just go away! Clearly the leftist "none shall die" viewpoint is impossible, and whilst a growing number of the population want a "return to freedom", I suspect that would change if their friends started dying.

To quote "Airplane", it looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking..... but maybe not snowballs!

[Bushmiller]

My understanding is that the virus' sole aim in life is to survive and it does anything it can to achieve this: Probably, in reality, not much different to any other life form including us. I believe there have already been several mutations, but these have not be viable, from the virus' point of view, and so little has been said of them as they fall by the wayside.

This new Omicron appears to be extremely virulent, but too new to say exactly in what direction with ease of infection and severity being the two issues foremost in our minds. The question is why it has developed in Southern Africa (not just South Africa)? One theory is because of the unusually high incidence of HIV (too few facilities to control and insufficient education to warn) and the increased susceptibility of people with that condition. These viruses are most insidious when coupled with people having immuno deficiencies.

The virus knows when it is on to a good thing ( from it's point of view).

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

To quote "Airplane", it looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking..... but maybe not snowballs!

And methamphetamines. (Lloyd Bridges?)



Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... I'm not convinced, at present, that we have any real idea of the economic outcomes. It largely depends on who is doing the analysis (as always) and what they are looking at. ...

Quite. That is why I carefully used the word preliminary before economic indicators. And "economic indicators" are the raw data as prepared by the various national statistics offices and central banks, before any commentators have massaged them. GDP is up in Oz and NZ, down in US and UK; ditto employment. Too frequently, "journalists" take an anecdote and build that into an "economic analysis". "Uncle Fred is unemployed, therefore unemployment is up."

[Warb]

The question is why it has developed in Southern Africa (not just South Africa)? One theory is because of the unusually high incidence of HIV (too few facilities to control and insufficient education to warn) and the increased susceptibility of people with that condition. These viruses are most insidious when coupled with people having immuno deficiencies.

Mutations occur in every species on a constant basis. Some make no real difference, some make it harder for the organism to survive, so those mutations simply die. The ones that give it an advantage survive and multiply. It is possible that the omicron mutation has only occurred in Sothern Africa, and because it is an improvement (from its viewpoint) it has prospered. It is also possible that is has occurred in other places but failed to survive for some reason. As you suggest, it may be that the background levels of HIV have allowed it to prosper, but in that case it would presumably fail to prosper in communities with lower levels of HIV. Time will tell! My suspicion is that it is likely just a better version that has got a foothold and then spread due to the movement of people, much as delta did....

It is worth remembering that even in a global pandemic there are people who are happy to use one situation to push a completely different cause. Just as the politicians are using covid as an excuse to knock their opponents, there are people (and groups) who would use it to push their own agenda. Whilst is is indeed possible that HIV has an impact on the spread of covid, it is also possible that covid it is a useful lever to forward the cause of those looking for funding for HIV treatment in Africa.

[Warb]

As suspected would happen, omicron is now confirmed to be in Australia. Worryingly, and assuming that everyone is telling the truth, two returned travellers have tested positive even though both were fully vaccinated and both were asymptomatic. The pair are now in quarantine, as are the 12 others on the flight that came from the affected country. However there were 260 other people on the plane (presumably it had multiple stops) who have been "ordered to isolate", so based on past performance at least a few of them will be out partying already.... The SMH has also reported that a traveller who has tested positive to covid after travelling to Sydney from one of the omicron affected countries is being investigated as a possible omicron case by Victoria Health, because the person travelled from NSW to Victoria and back.....

The ABC reports:
"On Sunday, NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said the pandemic wasn't over and living with COVID-19 also meant learning to live with new strains. "We need to learn to live alongside the virus. We also need to live alongside the various strains of the virus that will come our way," Mr Perrottet said."

[woodhutt]

From the initial reports I've read (from the S. African doctor who identified it in her patients), it appears that, while the Omicron variant may be more virulent i.e. transmissible, it seems to be less severe in its affect. She reports that her adult patients who have the variant complain of fatigue while a child who contracted it had a temperature and rapid pulse rate but recovered within a couple of days.
Pete

[Warb]

From the initial reports I've read (from the S. African doctor who identified it in her patients), it appears that, while the Omicron variant may be more virulent i.e. transmissible, it seems to be less severe in its affect. She reports that her adult patients who have the variant complain of fatigue while a child who contracted it had a temperature and rapid pulse rate but recovered within a couple of days.
Pete

This is the view that I heard being pushed on the radio this morning - "omicron is the strain you WANT running around you population, outcompeting delta" was the statement from Dr. McExpert. Now I can completely understand the logic of that statement, but it would seem to depend on a bunch of other factors and I'm not sure we as yet have all the data. For example, is the belief that omicron causes less damage actually backed up by data? Does omicron trigger the body to produce a long lasting immune response that then infers resistance to delta and the other known variants? If the answer to these two questions is "yes", then happy days! Everyone gets omicron, has a day off work and is then immune to covid. We can but hope!

[Warb]

Further to the above, World Health Organisation latest update (5 hours ago):

Transmissibility: It is not yet clear whether Omicron is more transmissible (e.g., more easily spread from person to person) compared to other variants, including Delta. The number of people testing positive has risen in areas of South Africa affected by this variant, but epidemiologic studies are underway to understand if it is because of Omicron or other factors.


Severity of disease: It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. Preliminary data suggests that there are increasing rates of hospitalization in South Africa, but this may be due to increasing overall numbers of people becoming infected, rather than a result of specific infection with Omicron. There is currently no information to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are different from those from other variants. Initial reported infections were among university students—younger individuals who tend to have more mild disease—but understanding the level of severity of the Omicron variant will take days to several weeks. All variants of COVID-19, including the Delta variant that is dominant worldwide, can cause severe disease or death, in particular for the most vulnerable people, and thus prevention is always key.