CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[FenceFurniture]

Yes, but what sort of wit?

[Bushmiller]

We have discussed some of the issues confronting Covid-19 in the US.

Firstly there is the unusual stance of the the president in the face of statistics, which I feel sure he would quote if it suited him. Some have declared that he is evil, but it is not for me to say such things. Then there is the attitude of the people and their undying (that was an ironic pun) belief that the second amendment gives the the right to go and do whatever they want no matter the consequences. There is the red-neck brigade who despite rising numbers of cases want the lockdown curtailed, and if the pix are an indicator, are prepared to go to war over it. Finally (maybe not finally, but this is a far as I am going) there is this little pointer, which one of my BILs sent. Initially my interest wandered straight off, but then rapidly returned as I saw the point. It is short. Just over a minute.

CORONAVIRUS AIR FLIGHT ACTIVITY.MP4

Wow! I don't think they stand a chance unless they dramatically change their thinking. The worst is still to come for them.

Regards
Paul

Not sure if this will load properly. See how I go.

[NeilS]

Some information on the ventilator controversy:

Why Ventilators May Not Be Working Well for COVID-19 Patients | Time

Time had attempted to contact Cameron Kyle-Sidell, without success. He was probably either treating patients or sleeping so no surprise there and should not be taken as suspicious. This is his U tube video:

YouTube

and another interview:

YouTube

Make up your own minds, but I would suggest we remember that Covid-19 may not behave like other "flu" viruses. Whatever the verdict, it looks to be a genuine report and not a tabloid fantasy.

Regards
Paul

Many thanks for posting those links, Paul.

No question, those links are the real deal.

It's rare to have something like that second video which gives such an insight into how the ED specialist in those Covid-19 hot spots are struggling to work out what is exactly going on with this virus and the best way to deal with it in their critically ill patients. This 'novel' virus is behaving so differently that they all feel the need to take time out to regularly videoconferencing with each other to share their experiences and ideas so that they can learn from each other. Smart move. Smart people.

It also struck me how exhausted they all looked, but if I end up in an ED with this virus I would want someone like those people managing my case. I always feel more confident with doctors who know that they don't know.

[GraemeCook]

.....I don't think they stand a chance unless they dramatically change their thinking. The worst is still to come ......

Amen.

[A Duke]

Yes, but what sort of wit?

If wit were sh** I would be a sewerage farm.

[doug3030]

I always feel more confident with doctors who know that they don't know.

A bit like the old saying "Those that can, do; those that can't, teach".

The modern equivalent is "Those that can, do; those that can't, post about it on youtube, facebook and forums".

[GraemeCook]

First I will qualify this post by stating that I worked for some years as an economist on economic policy, and economists almost always work with incomplete and out of date data. I am comfortable with known ambiguity; timeliness is almost always a preeminent requirement. I quite realise that this is anathema to those from a scientific or engineering background that love the precision of all those decimals. But one works with the data that one has.

This started as a simple post exploring the significant differences between coronavirus infection rates and death rates (especially) in Germany and the United Kingdom.

Stats 1.jpg

The diffeence in infection rates is, prima facie, explainable by Germany's 30% larger population, but then there is that massive difference in the reported death rates. At first I thought that the greatly lower death rate in Germany would be attributable to their far higher test regimes, meaning that may cases would be detected earlier, treated earlier while they were still mild, and cured.

Stats 3.jpg

Germany has been testing at a far higher rate - between 4 and 5 tests per thousand per week and by the 19-04-20 would have conducted almost five times as may tests as the UK per capita - circa 26 tests. (And about 60% more tests per capita than Australia.)

This very extensive testing seems to be paying off in the comparatively low death rates. Also note that Germany has land borders and its close proximity to France, Italy, Switzerland, Belgium and Holland - all of whom have high infection and death rates. UK is an island so its borders should be more defensible.

But wait, there's more ... and it gets worse.

[posting split for size reasons.]

[derekcohen]

A bit like the old saying "Those that can, do; those that can't, teach".

The modern equivalent is "Those that can, do; those that can't, post about it on youtube, facebook and forums".

Thanks Doug.

Regards from Perth

Derek

[GraemeCook]

There have been many reports suggesting that Britain may be understating its infection rate by perhaps 20% but it is difficult to find reputable sources for this assertion. I am not saying it is wrong; just that it requires better substantiation.

But many sources state that the British figures are collected by National Health Service from hospitals that it controls. This means that the NHS only collects data on infections and deaths that are in hospitals. Specifically, it does not collect data from care homes or from the wider community. And given Britain's low level of testing (20% that of Germany per capita) there must be many more cases undiagnosed in nursing homes and the community.

This supports the argument that Britain is significantly under-reporting both infections and deaths. But by how much?

A group of academics at the London School of Economics analysed the coronavirus data for a range of European countries and found that a very significant number of deaths from coronavirus actaully occured in care homes.

Stats 2.jpg

Their statistics show that approximately 50% of coronavirus deaths in the five European countries incurred in care homes. If the same ratio applies in Britain then it suggests that the progressive death rate has been understated by about 16,000 and that around 32,000 have already died from the virus. If the British death rate in care homes is only half that in Europe then the revised death figure is still 24,000.

These figures are catastrophic. And I do not think there is any evidence that British nursing homes are substantially better managed than continental ones.

And I have not attempted to quantify those cases of coronavirus that remain in the community, where people are treated in their homes, and the unfortunates who die undiagnosed.

The British Office of National Statistics (ONS) has published some preliminary data which report significantly higher numbers than the NHS but, as ever, there is a substantial time delay. Stats offices always favour accuracy over timeliness! The bane of economists - "I needed that last month!"

I hope I am wrong. But something smells.

[Lappa]

A bit like the old saying "Those that can, do; those that can't, teach".

The modern equivalent is "Those that can, do; those that can't, post about it on youtube, facebook and forums".

Does that mean that a crafts person who is teaching/passing on their skills to an apprentice really is not a crafts person because they can’t “do” because they are teaching?

[NeilS]

yes, but what sort of wit?

..... : ~)

[BobL]

I reckon that unless a country REPEATEDLY tests a sizeable proportion of their population, the so called measured infection rates are are a poor indicator of the real rates. This then makes comparisons between infections and deaths are a bit of a waste of time. If known infection rates are especially high it's not good enough to perform one test today and expect that to count for more than a couple of days because some one negative today can become positive tomorrow. In these cases people have to be repeatedly tested for a proper handle to be obtained on rates of infection, no badly affected country is yet close to doing this.

I'm starting to look at all these numbers with a large dose of salts, For a whole lot of reasons the numbers of deaths being reported are also becoming increasingly unreliable. The Chinese numbers were recently revised but they don't really know the number of deaths or they're not saying. Some countries are not counting anyone with underlying medical causes and some don't bother counting bodies in the streets. Some countries don't count A death as being due to COVID19 unless a specific positive COVOD19 test has been confirmed on the patient before they die. Many people especially the third world distrust doctors and modern medicine so look to alternative medicine so they don't get counted in ether infections or deaths. Even in first world world countries like the Netherlands, where they have a long history of home palliative care, many of the deceased don't even make it to hospital or a testing centre and there's simply too many deaths for autopsies to confirm COVID19. My guess in in Chermany you VILL BE TAKEN TO ZE HOSPITAL! I also wouldn't put it past some countries not counting Non-citizens.

[ian]

As I understand it, the app uses Bluetooth. What is to stop BT being turned off, due to low battery power, if you catch my drift?

Bluetooth turned off = presumptive criminal act
GPS location turned off = presumptive criminal act

leaving home without your mobile = presumptive criminal act



BTW
I understand the newer (i.e. since abut 2016) GPS chips are accurate to about 2 metres.

[BobL]

It's a crap app.

Not only does the phone have to be on, it also only runs in foreground ie has to be unlocked. So you head off for your walk or hop on the bus and you listen to you fave music and 60 seconds later it locks itself hence no data collected until you unlock it.

The google/Apple App runs in back ground so works when the phone is locked.

[Greg Ward]

To all the armchair critics regarding testing and virus management.
Test kits don't just come from thin air, so early testing was only possible and is still only possible with what is around to use. Testing here as well as overseas was aimed at those with potential exposure or symptoms as there were insufficient swabs AND testing paraphernalia etc. to carry out more expansive testing. This is still the case.
It is easy to criticise lack of testing but governments can only use what they have.
This virus was not expected, so it takes time for all PE gear, masks, ventilators to be produced and sourced.
An understanding of logistics may assist all armchair critics in understanding what has occurred and is still occurring.
Finally to those predicting gloom, don't underestimate the capacity of the US to ramp up production of all gear needed, nor of China to assist globally as well.