CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[DomAU]

It's not space on retail shelves that has me as worried as the space starting to appear in my retirement fund. Will likely have to cut back on shed toys if the markets keep going south like the last two days.
Regards
John

So far 6.2% downturn is not much compared to the massive growth we've seen over the last years or even last year. Maybe get out while things are still at record highs and go to cash?

Although cash isn't that safe either. Not many places to hide I feel.

[yvan]

Power could be free and we still won't be competitive when production workers here are earning in a few hours what their Asian counterparts make in a week.

Quite so. On the other hand these Asian workers do not live in countries offering their citizens free universal health, NDIS, a government spending some $40 billion or so on welfare support or, for that matter, a government able to lock in some $80 billion in today's money to buy 10, yes, TEN submarines. One billion here, one billion there, it soon adds up to money (with apologies to Tip O'Neil) !!!

We expect the high living standards of First World countries. One way or another, we have to pay for these standards and $2 per hour for Australian production workers simply won't do!

Am off my soap box...

Yvan

[Beardy]

Quite so. On the other hand these Asian workers do not live in countries offering their citizens free universal health, NDIS, a government spending some $40 billion or so on welfare support or, for that matter, a government able to lock in some $80 billion in today's money to buy 10, yes, TEN submarines. One billion here, one billion there, it soon adds up to money (with apologies to Tip O'Neil) !!!

We expect the high living standards of First World countries. One way or another, we have to pay for these standards and $2 per hour for Australian production workers simply won't do!

Am off my soap box...

Yvan

Absolutely and I am sure no one wants to lose the living standards we all enjoy but the harsh reality is we cannot have it both ways so it is fanciful to think we will be able to compete in manufacturing

[Bushmiller]

My daughter sent me the following link as a matter of urgency. She knows Craig Dalton, the author, at a personal level, but not at a professional level. My daughter, who is a very well balanced person, says that Craig too is a person not given to over dramatising and has posted this blog out of concern with no intent for personal gain:

Coronavirus: Analysts Don't Understand It - Craig Dalton | Seeking Alpha

I don't know Craig Dalton personally but he states his credentials right at the start and it is, to my mind, a considered appraisal. It is a false sense of confidence to stick our collective, wooden heads in the sand (my preferred strategy when confronted by anything, particularly if you give any credence to my wife's beliefs) so it is a heads up, but not good news I'm afraid. It looks to me as though things will get worse before they get better. This will apply even more to those of you approaching retirement age or already in retirement.

At least you may be in a position to take evasive action.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Despite Craig Dalton's excellent credentials (I've been involved in his Flutracking program for a few years) I'm reluctant to use/recommend any personal blogs etc for this sort of things. I'd ignore what's being said on social media (like this site ) and most news services especially tabloids who don't or can't always interpret the officially provided info.

As stated above the most reliable international information is going to come out of WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019

If you want/need info closer to home
The Australian health Dept website
Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert | Australian Government Department of Health
And links therein

Or even closer, the health Dept in your state
eg for WA its Coronavirus (COVID-19)
And links therein

[BobL]

One of my northern Italian relatives who lives about 50km from a couple of COVID19 affected and locked down villages posted this on FB (Ha Ha)
Screen Shot 2020-02-28 at 12.37.31 pm.jpg

It translates roughly to

1. Don't write BS on Social Media (SM)
2. Don't read BS on SM
3. Don't share BS in SM
4. Don't comment on idiotic posts on SM
5. Repeat 20 times, I'm not a virologist and I know nothing about viruses
6. Wash your hands well and after and while you are at it, may be also your armpits
7. Reread the above 6 times..

[Bushmiller]

Despite Craig Dalton's excellent credentials (I've been involved in his Flutracking program for a few years) I'm reluctant to use/recommend any personal blogs etc for this sort of things. I'd ignore what's being said on social media (like this site ) and most news services especially tabloids who don't or can't always interpret the officially provided info.

As stated above the most reliable international information is going to come out of WHO
Coronavirus disease 2019

If you want/need info closer to home
The Australian health Dept website
Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert | Australian Government Department of Health
And links therein

Or even closer, the health Dept in your state
eg for WA its Coronavirus (COVID-19)
And links therein

Bob

I hope you're right and the coffee keeps flowing.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Bob

I hope you're right and the coffee keeps flowing.

Regards
Paul

Local coffee service has decidedly been below par with this broken ankle and the ongoing illness of the resident slave (SWMBO).

Despite a slight increase in visitors it looks like we are going to go for a full 5 weeks on the usual 3kg a month we get delivered.
Just as well a few mates have popped in and taken me out for a during the week.

[Bushmiller]

It would appear that there are elements around the world who place some credence to the seriousness of the outbreak and I have noticed there have been very few pix on this thread: We all love pix. So a few suggestions:

Just a quick disclaimer. As this is a blog and of little value none of these precautions can be recommended or endorsed by the Forum, the owner of the Forum, any moderators irrespective of age or indeed the originator of this post and neither have they been tested for effectiveness.

A full bodied model is recommended here:

Coronavirus precautions 1.png

Another dual purpose version, but frequent washing is advised if alternating between purposes:

Coronavirus precautions 2.jpg

Risk is worse on some days:

Coronavirus precautions 3.jpg

More is better; You just can't be too safe:

Coronavirus precautions 5.jpg

Probably not the best answer if your partner suffers from Delirium Tremens. You could be mistaken for a pink elephant:

Coronavirus precautions 4.jpg

Hermetically sealed, the ultimate, but a little restrictive; movement, talking, toilet, bank robbing...actually pretty much anything:

Coronavirus precautions 6.jpg

I am Darth Vader. I can kill you with one blow....from my mouth:

Coronavirus precautions 7.jpg

Humans are not the only creatures at risk:

Coronavirus precautions 9.jpg

This is to prevent "Reverse Zoonosis."

Coronavirus precautions 8.jpg

Regards
Paul

[wheelinround]

What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? Being us old blokes are more susceptible it could cut back numbers of active members.
This will also cause a glut of old tools and whole workshops to hit the market brining our beloved tools crashing down in value!
Those young blokes dont like old tools they prefer modern battery powered gizmos.


Might be worth keeping an eye on sales of pre wife sell offs.

Sent from my SM-T580 using Tapatalk

[BobL]

What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? Being us old blokes are more susceptible it could cut back numbers of active members. This will also cause a glut of old tools and whole workshops to hit the market brining our beloved tools crashing down in value!
Those young blokes dont like old tools they prefer modern battery powered gizmos. Might be worth keeping an eye on sales of pre wife sell offs.

Couple of observations

Most (89%) Australians already die aged 65 or older.

For older males that become infected, the mortality rate of COVID19 is from~ 6% (for those aged 60 to 69) to ~25% (those aged over 80)

About 8% of blokes between 60 and 69 will die anyway so, provided all Australian males in this cohort catch COVID19 the additional deaths from COVID19 can at a max increase the death rate for this cohort from 8 to 14%
BUT
1) Not everyone will get COVID19
AND
2) As COVID19 kills more blokes with a pre-existing medical condition there will be a cross over between the 6% that die from COVID19 and the 8% that normally die.

I did a few back of the envelope calcs and estimated something like an increase in the total deaths rate of that cohort from 8% that normally die, to ~10% (those that would normally die + those from COVID19) which interestingly was the death rate for Aussie blokes aged 60-69 about 10 years ago.

Ultimately it will be the infection rate that will determine the number of blokes that pass away and hence tools that will become available.

My guess is that most fellas over 80 have given their gear away already?

[Beardy]

Hahaha

All the problems the world is facing and everyone here is just worried about their tools and their coffee.

Just goes to show when push comes to shove you see what the real priorities are.

[GraemeCook]

[QUOTE=wheelinround;2175946]What I want to know is will the forum survive such a virus? ......./QUOTE]

Just make sure you wear a mask when accessing the Forum !

[BoneInspector]

As a younger member (sub 50) I will admit to seeing an upside after reading the last couple of posts.
All tools have their place, both old and the new electric gizmos and the more I can get the better.

[Handyjack]

When I expire from what ever cause, I am not going to worry about my tools.

I have a life membership of an organization. Every year they send out a membership card that has an expiry date. Does this suggest I am going to expire when the card does? Perhaps one day.

Wife is stocking up on items. We went out and bought a chest freezer. Not sure, but it is big enough to put a body in.

Hopefully there will not be a shortage of hardware items as so many of them are made in Asia, particularly China. Could get interesting if one is unable to buy consumables like screws or spare parts.