CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[BobL]

Plan B still requires that the maker source key items (screws, and such) from manufacturers outside Australia.

Maybe that represents another opportunity?

[Glider]

The problem with broadcasting the possibility of shortages is that they're a self-fulfilling prophesy. Businesses stock up, then lead times blow out which alters the re-order trigger formulae used by inventory controllers.

Back in the late 70s some global expert predicted world wide shortages of practically everything. The bedlam lasted for about three years.

Many large companies recognise the danger of single sourcing and split their business but only the biggest can afford to dilute their purchasing power with impunity. Often the capital cost of custom tooling directs business to a single vendor.

mick

[BobL]

Back in the late 70s some global expert predicted world wide shortages of practically everything. The bedlam lasted for about three years.

I remember reading TIME MAGAZINE article in about 1978 that said we were going to run massively short of oil by 1990, copper a few years later, and even uranium by 2025.

The one that worries me a bit is the impact of global warming on the coffee industry.
Coffee only grows at a certain altitude and under specific weather conditions.

As the earth warms and climate gets more variable this translates into coffee trees requiring higher altitudes of which there is very limited arable land available so the coffee crop will be much reduced. This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.

[Simplicity]

I remember reading TIME MAGAZINE article in about 1978 that said we were going to run massively short of oil by 1990, copper a few years later, and even uranium by 2025.

The one that worries me a bit is the impact of global warming on the coffee industry.
Coffee only grows at a certain altitude and under specific weather conditions.

As the earth warms and climate gets more variable this translates into coffee trees requiring higher altitudes of which there is very limited arable land available so the coffee crop will be much reduced. This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.

Lol
Bob that made me laugh and cry , I to love a good coffee.
Maybe there is my problem,

Cheers Matt,
Hope this doesn’t cause offence, just thought it was amusing.




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[woodPixel]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

[BobL]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

We go through ~3 kg a month and it's roasted locally.
SWMBO goes though about 2/3kg, just about everyone who drops around usually has one or two the rest are mine.
Every shot is 15-18g of coffee so each shot is slightly more than a double. The shots are pulled short to reduce caffeine a bit.

[poundy]

Hhehe. BobL, I've beaten you to it. I hit up Amazon while they had coffee on special in January and bought 6 bags!

A bag lasts a month... if I ration it out, more... maybe I can be a noble when the apocalypse hits. Coffee might be a new currency. I'm rich!

Muhahaha!

We go through ~3 kg a month and it's roasted locally.
SWMBO goes though about 2/3kg, just about everyone who drops around usually has one or two the rest are mine.
Every shot is 15-18g of coffee so each shot is slightly more than a double. The shots are pulled short to reduce caffeine a bit.

lightweights
I have over 300kg of green coffee in my garage ready to roast
I'm running short this week so I'll do a mini-roast for me on the weekend, and then I'll roast up for fam/friends the weekend after when I will usually roast 10-20kg.
But yes, the climate change has me worried too. Coronavirus at this point isn't worrying me around coffee supply

[woodPixel]

I have over 300kg of green coffee in my garage ready to roast
I'm running short this week so I'll do a mini-roast for me on the weekend, and then I'll roast up for fam/friends the weekend after when I will usually roast 10-20kg.

Are fellow chums on the WWF "friends"

You'll need to start a thread showing the process. Id LOVE a huge pile of coffee. :3 :3

[Glider]

Now I'm really worried. It could be time to start dabbling in cryonics for coffee.

mick

[GraemeCook]

..... This has already started to take effect as coffee trees are already dying at lower altitudes and have to be planted increasingly higher up mountain slopes

Apparently the bio people have been working on breeding a coffee plant that tolerates a warmer earth this but because there are so few genetic variants (just two) of coffee plants this is really hard to do. It also means that if a serious bug were to hit coffee trees it could seriously damaged most of the coffee plants all over the world.

Don't worry, Bob. Many years ago I worked for an investment organisation and through that was chairman of a coffee company for five years. That scare has been around for at least 50 years!

There are two main species of commercial coffee in the world today.

Arabica is the highland coffee that grows on the mountainsides and produces the fine tasting stuff used in expresso and brewed coffee. Columbian, Ethiopian, PNG, etc, are all Arabica coffees.

Robustra is grown on hot, humid tropical lowlands. It is a much inferior product, taste-wise, and is used almost exclusively for instant coffee production.

Plant breeders are constantly improving all strains and have produced a hybrid - Arabustra - with less than stella results. As one coffee breeder told me - you cannot cross two species of grapes and expect the taste of cabernet sauvignon and the yields of sultana grapes; but we are trying....

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

I will jump in here on Bob's behalf, although he is more than capable of speaking for himself, as I happen to know that for a while he was a judge in barista competitions. Having met him I know he has a thorough understanding of the two types of coffee bean and many aspects of coffee drinking and production. Actually, some people might argue there is only one coffee bean and then there is a berry which produces another instant drink, which is a similar colour to coffee.

Typically arabica coffee grows above 5000' (in tropical regions) and I think Bob was pointing out that the elevation might not be sufficient in the future if the climate continues to warm.

Your comment about the rumours of coffee plantations dying being evident for fifty years is probably true as global warming has been occurring for longer than that. There just has not been general acceptance of this phenomena. I particularly like your grape analogy.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Thanks Paul,

I have been following the coffee, climate, suitable elevation for growth for some time in the peer reviewed scientific literature and through contacts in the coffee business. These articles are easy to find so I won't quote any here. There are some potential climate change positives with improved production and pollination but these are unlikely to offset the negatives of reduced availability of land with a suitable elevation and increases in pest activity. The concern I have that suggests this is not just a rumour is that already in central America, Arabica coffee plants are less productive and lower quality at lower altitudes and coffee growers are having to move up to higher elevations to maintain production and more important quality. In some places this has been as much as 200m in vertical height. Unfortunately because most mountains have a finite height and culminate as peaks, at increased altitudes there is simply less suitable land.

As for Robusta - I will only drink it as a last resort )

[DomAU]

Thanks guys. Just when I thought there wasn't enough to worry about with the global debt bubble and associated asset bubbles, climate change, bees dying, and an overall lack of natural resource availability into the future, you really bring it home where it hurts and specifically bring coffee into it. I'm already paying about $50- per kg + shipping for my coffee beans and I'm prepared to go as high as required provided I can afford it, but I'd rather not have to. Hopefully when the debt bubble pops we'll be in a recession long enough to dampen demand for everything and this will keep quality coffee at a reasonable price / availability - provided I still have a job...

But in all seriousness, I foresee that coffee won't be the only thing we are all fighting over in the near future if we don't figure out a way to slow our over-consumption of this planet.

Cheers,

Dom

[orraloon]

It's not space on retail shelves that has me as worried as the space starting to appear in my retirement fund. Will likely have to cut back on shed toys if the markets keep going south like the last two days.
Regards
John

[woodPixel]

DomAU, you forgot Betelgeuse going supernova.