CoronaVirus ==> Empty Shelves

[Simplicity]

Simplicity - Happy Holidays indeed!

I know two people near Wuhan. They've been in their units for 4 weeks now. They are going up the wall. They were told this morning "April"....

Next, a guy I talk with infrequently in Shenzhen has 600 people there. Just reopened. Closed Today - sick people again. Four more weeks.

Another dude I chat with is in "shipping" (he seems knowledgeable)... said anything leaving Shenzhen is only 10% full. Containers are piling up like crazy. There is talk of heaving them off the boats into the sea (!!!) or charging people sending crates back to China empty a "handling fee" of $1200.

Treat these as anecdotal and hearsay, for its just talk, but I've no reason to expect these people to BS.


Ian - here is a decent video describing the whole China --> Vietnam manufacturing thing. I've been watching these two dudes for a while.


Overall, you probably all know that I'm a hair-triggered market-collapse doom-enthusiast and I have to admit I've been watching this since the beginning of January with an incredibly increasing rate of alarm.

Ian, yes, the flu is bad, but the numbers we are seeing aren't....true. It is worse. Much worse. Now that its spread out of China - such as to South Korea, we are getting an appreciation of just how bad it is. The numbers from SK and the Diamond Princess are far more reflective of the "reality" Ive been told (by Chinese on Telegram and Reddit)....

I feel... without being alarmist, that this will be Bad.

It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

Cheers Matt

[woodPixel]

It’s the saving face thing that gets my goat,
We all know what’s happening
I just don’t get why they keep pretending they can cover it up!!!

This is interesting in itself.

The grunts on the ground know NOTHING.

Here are some of the things I've been told constantly and consistently by various people within China:

-- It is much worse in the USA. People are dying of the flu in vast numbers
-- The USA government is doing "nothing" to help their people
-- The CCP has this all in hand. They are reacting while the world does nothing (nice spin there CCP!)
-- They are being told it is only their region (no matter the region)
-- DON'T go to hospital. They can't help (some truth to that. They are overwhelmed)
-- If you need help, no matter what it is thats needed, one is to ring the police (I dont know the translation for this, but I think its some sort of community support group with some sort of authority. They aren't the police as we know them)
-- Each person, or factory owner (that Ive read of) has NO idea when they can reopen. IF they do, its a massive bureaucratic process, with arbitrary processes and from what Ive read they can be re-closed down at a moments notice.
-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)

So, believe your seller. They've no idea and only doing what they can. From what I've seen its a complete sheit-show and the wheels have completely fallen off.

The downchain ramifications of these things is almost endless.

eeek!

[ian]

-- Apparently only factories with "dorm" facilities are allowed to open. (???? Do they sleep at work, like some sort of FIFO thing?)

doom and gloom specialist ???

and yes, from what I understand lots of Chinese workers sleep in the factory dorm. They then travel back to their home village once or twice each year.

[Glider]

If half of what's been posted here is true, I might have to go bush and start reading the Green Woodworking section.

mick

[BobL]

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[Simplicity]

Beyond Tools In Malaga in Perth's northern suburbs mention machinery availability problems here

Coronavirus disruption hits store shelves as Australian retailers face 'serious pinch' from COVID-19 outbreak - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

I didn’t read the whole article !!

But it just shows the stupidity of relying on mainly one country for supply.
All your eggs in one basket.

From a business point of view it’s madness.

Cheers Matt

[BobL]

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

[woodPixel]

Even if this thing is as "bad" as said, on the scale of things, its not too bad.

Many of the people here would remember that smallpox, TB and polio were a real thing in every day life.

The viciousness of these diseases, plus their spreads, were subjectively much much worse. Worse, because all three existed at the same time, treatment was medieval and money scarce.

Keep your tools sharp friends, just in case we get 4 or 8 weeks enforced inside-time. Oh noes!!!!! What will we do!!!!!???? (bowls, pens, boxes, boards, all those honey-dos, that kumiko project... new shelves, fix the leaking taps... oh gods! Nooooooo!!!!!!)


Edit. This was on the ABC news' website. It puts things into perspective.

NED-1132-Coronavirus-What-we-know_1rTgajAM.jpg

[BobL]

I read your post out to SWMBO and she’s nodding her head.

[Beardy]

There’s another way of thinking about it in that maybe if more customers didn’t just always buy the cheapest gizmo/appliance/tool we’d have a greater selection from a wider variety of sources?

Hit the nail in the head Bob.
People often complain but the reality is business is selling what the consumer wants to buy. We have all seen the demise of companies that have not followed that pattern

[Wongo]

I listen to the press briefings on the WHO website every day when it is available. It is where I get all the facts and I will not follow anything on social medias or on the news.

Press briefings

[BobL]

Unfortunately the WHO briefings won’t tell us anything about when the currently unavailable widget that is out of stock in your local hardware is going to become available so it’s only natural to look elsewhere- not that anyone else can do that either.

[woodPixel]

This represents some VERY interesting opportunities.

Small makers and specialist builders with small operations should be jumping all over this.

It may represent an unrepeatable golden opportunity.

The VERY worst these businesses should do is pitch themselves as a Plan B for these end users. Obviously prices will change, but so will the quality. People, errr The Public, might see excellent value in receiving high quality items.

[ian]

This represents some VERY interesting opportunities.

Small makers and specialist builders with small operations should be jumping all over this.

It may represent an unrepeatable golden opportunity.

The VERY worst these businesses should do is pitch themselves as a Plan B for these end users. Obviously prices will change, but so will the quality. People, errr The Public, might see excellent value in receiving high quality items.

Plan B still requires that the maker source key items (screws, and such) from manufacturers outside Australia.

[woodPixel]

P&G warns 17,600 products possibly hit by coronavirus - Supply Management