Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

[FenceFurniture]

It was a politician free zone on Q&A last night (the best kind of Q&A by far). The topic was Transitioning from Coal to Renewables, which is absolutely smack on the theme of this thread (how to do the transitioning). There was no discussion of whether or not CC was happening - none whatsoever. Much discussion of what a golden economic opportunity is staring Australia in the face. Matt Evans summed it up at the end when he said "Everybody wants this to happen except a small bunch of federal politicians".

One of the points made at about 21:30 was from our representative at the recent Davos summit (Sophia Wang). She said that the eyes of the world's commerce leaders were on Australia, so we sure are NOT a "nobody". BTW, her start up business is pulling CO2 out of the atmosphere to make building materials.

A very good show indeed - extremely informative, albeit with a stacked audience (stacked with concerned coal miners, farmers, young people and other similar super-radicals).



One slightly disappointing note however, was to see two people in a row (the questioner and the first answerer) both thinking that there are only two "u"s in Nuculur when everyone knows there are at least three.

[Boringgeoff]

I have been following this conversation with interest and appreciate all contributors for your interesting views. Up to now I've not commented because I don't think I have the intellect to add anything meaningful.
Except this may be of interest. I owned a truck delivering concrete from 1980 to 2oo7, the initial truck was replaced in 2003. I used to calculate that I was getting about 3 km for each litre of diesel burnt. I dug out my old log book and did a bit of maths. In 23 years the truck did 708,827 km which at 3km/L is 236,275 litres of diesel. The computer tells me that each litre of diesel produces 2.68 kg of CO2 which equates to 633,217kg.
The agitator on the back of the truck utilised a petrol burning donkey motor. Having no record of petrol consumption I conservatively worked on burning 10 L per day. I said conservative, some days I burnt 80 litres other days none. At 60 L/week x 50 weeks x 23 years equals 69,000 litres of petrol. Once again Mr Google tells me that each litre of petrol produces 2.31 Kg of CO2, which equals 159390kg. Add the two together (792,607kg) and I am responsible for nearly 80 Tonnes of CO2 from that source alone.
On the upside the vintage car enthusiasts inform us that the manufacturing process of any vehicle creates more pollution than that vehicle will produce in its lifetime. On that basis I am giving myself a pat on the back for making that 1976 Ford Louisville last from 1980 to 2003 and it didn't end there, after I sold it, it went on for a few more years as a skip bin hauler.
Cheers,
Geoff.

[FenceFurniture]

In the absence of any answers to repeated requests of what the remaining deniers and fence sitters are afraid of, one can only assume that it is economic loss (for themselves and/or the country) combined with fear of the unknown aka staunch conservatism. I believe that those two assumptions are not only correct, but also that there are no other reasons for denial.



When I started High School in 1968, to play the sport of our choice we had to be able to swim a lap of the Gunnamatta Bay Baths....out at the 7 metre deep Pontoon, otherwise we had to take compulsory swimming lessons.

I could swim just fine, but I was afraid to go out of my depth.
I wanted to play tennis for school sport, so I had a problem to overcome.

At the very last minute...the day before the swimming test....Dad took me down to the pontoon, we both held on to the ladder. No worries.
Dad said "We both know you can swim, right?"
"Yep"
"So......let go of the ladder......"
And with a deep intake of air, and no doubt a bit of a charge of adrenalin.....I swam away from the ladder....and played tennis the next week.

I didn't know what I was scared of. I was just bloody scared.



All of our entrepreneurs, captains of industry, scientists etc etc are telling us that we have a golden opportunity to lead the world in renewable energy technology, and create a very strong foundation for our future economy.

We are being held back by a diminishing number of people who are scared, but who cannot - or will not elucidate what they are scared of. I have previously noted (in here) that I said in October that I thought this summer may well change a lot of minds about the reality of CC (given that the bushfire season started in mid-winter, for crying out loud). I would be fascinated to see data on people who have changed their minds in the last 6 months.



The inescapable facts are:

1. We will run out of oil by ~2070, and will no longer have reason to meddle in the Middle East.
2. Electric vehicles and hydrogen powered vehicles are being widely developed, and at an increasing rate. Infrastructure for their ongoing support is dragging the chain right now - at least in Oz, but will start to catch up reasonably soon. That is known as transition.
3. Burning fossil fuels puts CO2 into the atmosphere, which has increased by 33% as a component since about 1950. We also know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
4. Coal is on the nose for all of the world's banks and other lenders - very soon it will be impossible to find external finance for CF power (simply because a return on investment will not be seen)
5. Australia will have no say in the world wide demand for our coal (as high quality as it is) falling through the floor, which will savage our national income
6. We have an abundance of other resources that will used in tech of the future
7. There are multiple emerging technologies to change our energy sources, and the next five years or so will see tremendous advances
8. The world IS going to transition away from coal (and it's sounding like hydrogen and perhaps methanol might do the heavy lifting part of coal)
9. Australia is being presented with a golden opportunity to cash in on this energy transition. If we do not jump in and lead then we will have lost the impetus that a small nation like ours needs, because other nations or large corporations WILL seize the opportunities that we ignored. We will then have to explain to our grandchildren why we sat on our hands as the country burnt to a crisp, and our economy went overseas.

How, in all conscience, can anyone suggest we should not just go along for the ride, but drive the damned bus? It is recklessly and reprehensibly irresponsible not to. If we do not go along we will have ensured the very thing that deniers are so afraid of - WRECKING THE ECONOMY! (leaving the planet out of it for a moment)


This is not Sophie's Choice - Sophie can keep both kids.

Or lose them both if we are reckless.

[FenceFurniture]

On that basis I am giving myself a pat on the back for making that 1976 Ford Louisville last from 1980 to 2003

And Geoff that was no doubt purely for economic reasons (which is why deniers will be dragged along the transition path, like it or no)

each litre of diesel produces 2.68 kg of CO2
each litre of petrol produces 2.31 Kg of CO2

I don't dispute the veracity these figures at all, BUT I don't understand them.
Uncle Albert told me that matter can neither be created nor destroyed.
A litre of petrol weighs 0.75kg, and presumably there are other things produced besides CO2 when it is burnt, but surely that means a minimum of 2.31 - 0.75 = 1.56kg of oxygen is taken in during the process. At sea level and 21°, 1.56kg of O2 is 1176 litres, which seems extraordinary - over a m³ of pure oxygen to burn a litre of petrol! (and that assumes that ALL the petrol is converted to CO2 which is clearly far from the case)

What am I missing? Mick?

[Beardy]

In the absence of any answers to repeated requests of what the remaining deniers and fence sitters are afraid of, one can only assume that it is economic loss (for themselves and/or the country) combined with fear of the unknown aka staunch conservatism. I believe that those two assumptions are not only correct, but also that there are no other reasons for denial.



When I started High School in 1968, to play the sport of our choice we had to be able to swim a lap of the Gunnamatta Bay Baths....out at the 7 metre deep Pontoon, otherwise we had to take compulsory swimming lessons.

I could swim just fine, but I was afraid to go out of my depth.
I wanted to play tennis for school sport, so I had a problem to overcome.

At the very last minute...the day before the swimming test....Dad took me down to the pontoon, we both held on to the ladder. No worries.
Dad said "We both know you can swim, right?"
"Yep"
"So......let go of the ladder......"
And with a deep intake of air, and no doubt a bit of a charge of adrenalin.....I swam away from the ladder....and played tennis the next week.

I didn't know what I was scared of. I was just bloody scared.



All of our entrepreneurs, captains of industry, scientists etc etc are telling us that we have a golden opportunity to lead the world in renewable energy technology, and create a very strong foundation for our future economy.

We are being held back by a diminishing number of people who are scared, but who cannot - or will not elucidate what they are scared of. I have previously noted (in here) that I said in October that I thought this summer may well change a lot of minds about the reality of CC (given that the bushfire season started in mid-winter, for crying out loud). I would be fascinated to see data on people who have changed their minds in the last 6 months.



The inescapable facts are:

1. We will run out of oil by ~2070, and will no longer have reason to meddle in the Middle East.
2. Electric vehicles and hydrogen powered vehicles are being widely developed, and at an increasing rate. Infrastructure for their ongoing support is dragging the chain right now - at least in Oz, but will start to catch up reasonably soon. That is known as transition.
3. Burning fossil fuels puts CO2 into the atmosphere, which has increased by 33% as a component since about 1950. We also know that CO2 is a greenhouse gas.
4. Coal is on the nose for all of the world's banks and other lenders - very soon it will be impossible to find external finance for CF power (simply because a return on investment will not be seen)
5. Australia will have no say in the world wide demand for our coal (as high quality as it is) falling through the floor, which will savage our national income
6. We have an abundance of other resources that will used in tech of the future
7. There are multiple emerging technologies to change our energy sources, and the next five years or so will see tremendous advances
8. The world IS going to transition away from coal (and it's sounding like hydrogen and perhaps methanol might do the heavy lifting part of coal)
9. Australia is being presented with a golden opportunity to cash in on this energy transition. If we do not jump in and lead then we will have lost the impetus that a small nation like ours needs, because other nations or large corporations WILL seize the opportunities that we ignored. We will then have to explain to our grandchildren why we sat on our hands as the country burnt to a crisp, and our economy went overseas.

How, in all conscience, can anyone suggest we should not just go along for the ride, but drive the damned bus? It is recklessly and reprehensibly irresponsible not to. If we do not go along we will have ensured the very thing that deniers are so afraid of - WRECKING THE ECONOMY! (leaving the planet out of it for a moment)


This is not Sophie's Choice - Sophie can keep both kids.

Or lose them both if we are reckless.

That all sounds fine but the two points that I still struggle with are ;

1- What is this golden opportunity that Australia is presented with? I hear this touted a bit but don’t understand what it is.

2- This coal replacement item/ product has yet to come to fruition as we have recently discussed, I don’t understand how we are meant to be going full steam ahead and leading the world when we don’t even know what direction we are meant to face.

[FenceFurniture]

That all sounds fine but the two points that I still struggle with are ;

1- What is this golden opportunity that Australia is presented with? I hear this touted a bit but don’t understand what it is.

2- This coal replacement item/ product has yet to come to fruition as we have recently discussed, I don’t understand how we are meant to be going full steam ahead and leading the world when we don’t even know what direction we are meant to face.

Watch Q&A from last night.

[rustynail]

Tennis!? When there is Union or League? Blimey, when I started High School I thought I could walk on water.

[Beardy]

Watch Q&A from last night.

I will tonight, I hope my questions are answered but I am not confident

[FenceFurniture]

Tennis!? When there is Union or League? Blimey, when I started High School I thought I could walk on water.

I never did try playing Union in summer.







Or winter.

[FenceFurniture]

I will tonight, I hope my questions are answered but I am not confident

That shows an underlying negative attitude. A positive or neutral response would be "I will tonight". Negative attitudes just won't get the job done I'm afraid.

[Beardy]

That shows an underlying negative attitude. A positive or neutral response would be "I will tonight". Negative attitudes just won't get the job done I'm afraid.

I knew you would pick up on that, I am not negative I am just realistic. I should wait until I watch the show but my underlying thought is that if we knew the answers to those questions it would already be happening.
Everyone is happy to blame the government but if there was an opportunity this country has countless entrepreneurial types that would be all over it regardless of what the government of the day thought.........where are they? Why haven’t they grabbed this opportunity?

[FenceFurniture]

Everyone is happy to blame the government but if there was an opportunity this country has countless entrepreneurial types that would be all over it regardless of what the government of the day thought.........where are they? Why haven’t they grabbed this opportunity?

They ARE all over it - that's the point - but things keep going overseas because of this tone-bloody-deaf-useless-get-in-the-road-of-everything-except-coal Government, that has no balls, unity or vision.

And there's no point saying that previous govts were the same or similarly useless - maybe they were, maybe they weren't - but THIS is the situation we are now in, and it needs properly addressing by the Govt of the day. We still have 2+ years of this one-seat majority Govt (who claimed a HUGE victory and mandate - with one seat!! ), although we may be mercifully spared the full term. Albanese needs to get their policy in order in fairly short time - they might be caught short otherwise.

At least we are now rid of Abbott. He's still yapping in the background, but that will dissipate as his invitations to yap run out (end of this year perhaps?).

We need leadership! We need to catch up on a decade of nothing happening.

[doug3030]

Coal is on the nose for all of the world's banks and other lenders - very soon it will be impossible to find external finance for CF power (simply because a return on investment will not be seen)

Even if it was possible to switch off all coal-fired power today, it would still be necessary to mine coal.

There is currently no practical way to manufacture steel without it.

[NeilS]

This coal replacement item/ product has yet to come to fruition as we have recently discussed, I don’t understand how we are meant to be going full steam ahead and leading the world when we don’t even know what direction we are meant to face.

One of the new technologies is based on hydrogen and it is already well developed as a technology.

Having such abundant primary sources of green energy here hydrogen is likely to become our premium energy export to countries that don't have the same green energy advantages as we do. I expect that the fleet of tankers (or similar) that are currently exporting gas will in time transition to exporting hydrogen.

You can already buy a car here in Australia that runs on hydrogen, but there is just not enough of them yet to have a network of re-fuelling points. Heavy haulage trucks and light trains are now being test run on hydrogen. If you can run those on hydrogen you should be able to scale up to run micro or mini base load electricity generator with it, etc.

Hyundai Nexo: first hydrogen car certified for Australia, now for the refuelling stations | CarAdvice

Toyota won't roll out their hydrogen cars here until there is an established network of refuelling points.

Hydrogen cars: Future or fiction? - www.carsales.com.au

The transition to hydrogen and electric cars is already underway. The UK has just announced that it will ban the sale of all new diesel and petrol cars from 2035.

How will the petrol and diesel car ban work? - BBC News

Some of of us will have already bought our last new diesel and petrol car. Like Geoff, I keep my vehicles for a long time...

The problem here in Australia is that the constant rhetoric from some components of the political class and media has for so long been that we are going to fall out of the sky if we stop using what has been our cheap sources of energy up until now. Yes, if we were to immediately stop using fossil fuels the lights would go out, our vehicles would stop and our economy would tank, big time. But that is not what has happened elsewhere or will happen here. The word 'transition' is currently missing from the rhetoric from that quarter (or eighth, or whatever % it is) as that requires an acknowledgement of where we need to get to and a planned pathway to get there. Without that some sectors of our society are going to be left behind, the cost of getting to there will be higher and there will be other unexpected and negative consequences.

Had we started the transition a decade ago, like the UK and some other countries in Europe did, the transition would have been smoother and more gradual. Having been held back for so long we no longer have that luxury.

However, it will still be a transition, not a jump, and once the momentum picks it won't feel like such an insurmountable undertaking.

PS - Apologies for the personal reflection here: My grandfather (who never owned a car) was a livestock trader. This included horses and, in particular, draft horses. These were working horses to pull ploughs, waggons and the like. When young, my father became an expert horseman helping with the livestock. Yet, I never saw my father on a horse (just later via the poor newspaper photo below), but he loved his cars and we had many of those. The transition from horse to engine power happened in a relatively few years. During WWII my father trained as a morse code signalman, then became an expert in repairing valve radios, then transistors radios, then B&W TVs then colour TVs. In his latter years he was intrigued with the early years of internet and video conferencing (which I was involved with). He had no idea where morse code would lead him and the subsequent technologies that would evolve from there, but it was quite a journey; from horse back to riding the internet. In comparison, the steps to get to a clean energy economy seem relatively small and tame to me!

Dad riding Wings - cropped.png

[AlexS]

Been off line for a couple of days due to the storms in Sydney, so I've had to skim through a couple of pages of posts to try to catch up. However, without trying to go off track or divert from an otherwise good post, I have to take issue with this:

even it is only a perceived crisis such as the Y2K scenario

The Y2K scenario would have been a major problem if it had not been recognised and dealt with. As an example, all the data loggers used for telemetering water data in NSW were first generation units that would have failed. That would have meant that many people in Sydney wouldn't have had water, or depending on the circumstances at the time, dams around the state could have been put in dangerous states. Farmers in the west of the state would either have gone without their ordered irrigation supplies or watched water go to waste. OK, back onto the topic - almost.

After the weekend storms, I think we've become a marginal electorate - there are unwanted pools everywhere!