Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

[woodPixel]

I deeply suspect that will be too late.

Personally, I think it was too late a decade ago.

These things have velocity and inertia. The atmosphere wont change in a fortnight just because we plant a billion trees one weekend.

Unless we come up with some stupendous technology that can pull a billion tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere ever day for a year (I just made that up, for I'd think the number must be Very Large) then we are hopeless.

Knowing our stupidity though, we'll build up an industry on taxation and rebates, which will encourage the big companies to "turn on" such machines in such vast number and flip us into a bloody ice age!


edit: There is this List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions - Wikipedia

Can you BELIEVE those numbers!!!!! Holy Cow!

Look at Japan ... 3,494 tons PER km2 PER year!!!

Look at China ... 1,133 tons PER km2 PER year...

Australia! 16.5 tons PER person PER year. Can you imagine a stack of pure carbon as a block next to you weighing 16.5 tons? We generate that every year!



Its horrifying.

[FenceFurniture]

Chris uses most (I think) of the energy he produces during the day, sells back whatever is left, and uses a very small amount of energy at night. IIRC his power bills are very small indeed, particularly compared to what they were. When batteries become economically viable he will add one (again IIRC) and will be more or less self-sustainable - but not necessarily off grid.

[FenceFurniture]

Personally, I think it was too late a decade ago.

These things have velocity and inertia. The atmosphere wont change in a fortnight just because we plant a billion trees one weekend.

Indeed WP. Clearly I hope you're wrong, but there are numerous scientists who are now realising that the whole inertia/momentum thing may have already bitten a very large chunk out of our bum, and that it may already be too late regardless of what we do - trillion trees or not.

[FenceFurniture]

A point that I want to make clear is that as far as I'm concerned, it's ok to have some coal fired energy to produce base load for industry (if that's the only way it can be done for a while). What we have to do is cut the buggery out of the general usage domestic and small business usage, with renewable. Just to use a number - if we can cut our coal fired energy to perhaps 10% of what is is now (and as quickly as possible) then that might be viable until other technologies are invented to completely eradicate coal. That might be 20-30 years for all I know, but a radical reduction is what is required.

Same with oil/petrol/diesel - no doubt some types of vehicles such as a D10 bulldozer won't work so well on batteries. No worries - it's the 100s of millions of cars that are by far the biggest problem.

Everything in moderation, and all that. Science has and can produce the answers. We just need our Govts and nay-sayers to let them get on with it apace.

[Beardy]

EV’s will add to the load and further complicate the issue as well.
I think regardless of the nay sayers, we will ultimately follow what the rest of the world does anyway.

[FenceFurniture]

EV’s will add to the load and further complicate the issue as well.
I think regardless of the nay sayers, we will ultimately follow what the rest of the world does anyway.

EV's?

I fear that if it's left to a conservative (small c) Govt who is too chicken to lead, then you will be correct. I include every Govt since 1996 in that - Howard was just a populist, Rudd was too chicken to call a Double Dissolution on the ETS, and he would have caned it - we hadn't yet quite gotten to Stupid Parliament Times then, in 2009). Gillard was lucky to stay alive as long as she did. Abbott....don't start me......, Turnbull really was just a Fizza with his nuts held in a firm-but-not-yet-painful grip of the hands of the party establishment (whatever the hell that is), and SmoKo is currently on full disreputable display, but apparently with no grip on his nether bits - go figure! (I guess it's hard to grab what ain't there)

Australia, despite its small population, should be leading the world on energy for quite a number of reasons:
1. Coal - we have shightloads of the good stuff and can be somewhat ransom-like with to whom and how it it sold (same with Uranium and Lithium)
2. We are the sunniest continent of all (and the driest), and so should be paving the way with that tech - show them how it is done
3. We have just had (or are still having) the most demonstrative season EVER of how things are going to become WORLDWIDE, and the World has taken notice....maybe we should too......
4. We are supposed to be a smart country, but somehow I think there is one "o" too many in that
5. (and probably most importantly) Like NZ, but not as much, we punch well above our weight on the international stage - if we damn well show leadership you can be sure that we will be listened too and followed! SmoKo just can't see that if he/we said "RIGHT- That's enough! We are going to show that world what can be done!" we would be the envy of the world, just as we were during the GFC. Anyone remember that? We WERE the toast of the world..."How did they do that???"

Woodpixel - you were still in Finance then I think....what was our reputation? How famous were we?

We CAN do it again, but we must not be held back by the Abbots of this country.

[doug3030]

We CAN do it again, but we must not be held back by the Abbots of this country.

Well then again, if we had stuck with Abbot/Hockey and sound budgeting instead of going with Turnbull who spent like a Labor PM we might have had the money by now to make the changes you are asking for, Brett.You cant have it both ways.

[FenceFurniture]

We have four quite distinct seasons up here, and the change from summer to autumn is usually the most noticeable of them. There is usually a period of a week around end of Feb to early March when it is quite apparent that Summer is over.

Right now it's a little too early to tell but we may well be going through that period from last Monday through to the end of next week - which would make that seasonal change 3 weeks early. After all that blistering weather up to last Sunday (36-38°), we have had temps of only one day above 20° (Tues was 21°), and for the next week 15, 16, 16, 19, 21, 22, 21°. Maybe that's just a 10-12 day dip, but the rest of this month will tell the story.

We are also to expect in excess of 300mm of rain in the next week - and most of that over this coming weekend. I sure hope other firegrounds are getting good rain too.

[Toymaker Len]

New renewables became cheaper than gas or coal power back about 2014 on a cents per kilowatt hour basis. (Don't even think about nuclear,,,triple the cost and politically suicide) The trouble is, as with all new technology, everything is still developing very fast and we cannot be sure yet which system will mature into the most efficient/economical/manageable.
Right now there is a solar thermal mass system working in South Australia which provides the energy for a large hydroponic green house which produces most of the tomatoes which Coles sells around the country.see here (World-first solar tower powered tomato farm opens in Port Augusta | RenewEconomy)
This is looking very good. They are using compressed air to transfer energy from a solar tower to a great big sand filled silo. The hot air heats the sand and it will hold the heat for weeks or months so energy is on tap 24/7. The extraction of energy is as simple as running steam through the hot silo then through a conventional turbine. Simple, conventional reliable baseload power.
Next thing "We MUST take CO2 out of the atmosphere rapidly and we MUST vastly reduce the amount we are putting into it." There is a way and it is called charcoal or bio-char. Charcoal has been dug into agricultural soil for about ten thousand years because it makes a great soil improver. Imagine if every bit of crop residue, every bit of forestry waste, most of the urban garbage etc. was put through a pyrolysis system which would produce enough hydrocarbon gas to power itself and make large amounts of granular biochar to mix back into the soil. Currently people can buy carbon offsets to ease their conscience about flying etc but the money seems to go into making village cooking in poor communities slightly more efficient rather than being directed to actually putting carbon back into the ground. What we need is to see global agriculture powered by plant sourced hydrocarbons and a biochar byproduct put back into the soil.

- - - Updated - - -

[woodPixel]

Doesnt biochar (or simply burning) produce CO2? (Biochar - Wikipedia)

There was an absolutely fantastic writeup in the local rag here about this. It seemed a bit too good to be true.

FenceFurniture, those low temperatures are from Mother Nature to lull you into a sense of summers completion. She will come back in a fortnight and brutally mug you with cudgels. You will rue those words of finality

[Bushmiller]

Len

The tomato farm project is an interesting concept. I didn't know anything about it. The media article was a little short on information so I went surfing.

36.6MWth Integrated Energy System based on CSP, Australia

The comments I would make are that:

1. It is good to see somebody taking the initiative.
2. It is a pity Australia is not developing this level of lateral thinking (remember Edward de Bono)
3. It is relatively small scale
4. Despite being small scale, look at the area of mirrors required. Not an issue in desert regions but increasingly an issue as we move towards larger population concentrations where land is at a premium.
5. The sand heat storage is a little reminiscent of the salt bed storage that has been used in trials for solar power, although I don't think this is quite the same.
6. My reading of the information leads me to think that they are not completely self sufficient regarding power.

Please understand I am not knocking the project. I think it is the way to go.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

I was thinking about this thread and the "do we do without cars".... well, that is interesting.

A large number of people here seem to use eBikes. Very low effort. As a hoot, last night, I checked eBay and there are many kits to retrofit any bike with some offering 1kw of power. That must go like stink!

A couple of dudes have bikes with itty bitty petrol motors on them. I'd imagine they must run on almost nothing.

Perhaps not for all, there is a dude here who rides his OneWheel to work. Nice! He cruises at considerable speed just riding it like skateboard.

Admittedly, this wont get you to Sydney or Perth, but from what I "read" I think 99% of all trips are < 5km.... or something something.... plus a bit of exercise could do 80% of us pod-bellies a bit of good

[FenceFurniture]

FenceFurniture, those low temperatures are from Mother Nature to lull you into a sense of summers completion. She will come back in a fortnight and brutally mug you with cudgels.

You will rue those words of finality

Well I did say that it was still too early to be sure.

[Bushmiller]

The greatest barrier to electricity investment, whatever the nature of that power source, is in fact the commercialisation that has more of less taken place over the last 25 years in Australia. It is not complete as there are still many government owned installations. Theoretically they are bound by the same rules and regulations as (AEMO monitors) the rest of the privately owned stations. In practice the government can direct their operations to "minimise" charges they bid into the system at lower prices than are really economic.

In the short term this appears wonderful and the government sees it reducing prices to the retailers and maybe the consumers too, if it is passed on. Long term repercussions are that private investors are wary of entering the market. They are only going to enter the market if they can see a return on their investment.

During my day shift last Monday I was watching the price in South Australia. Most of the sunlight hours it sat at -$1000/MWhr (yes minus). The system load was low (around 800MW) and my conjecture is that rooftop solar was producing almost all the supply required. This meant that almost every commercial producer would have shut down: Gas stations, solar farms and wind farms.

This is not what a new entrant to the market wishes to see. No chance of a return on their investment.

There is no real chance of a reversal on the privatisation of electricity supply in Australia so we must recognise that every project has to be commercially viable. The laws of supply and demand are nowhere as glaringly obvious as with the electricity market.

I do like the concept of multiple use technology such as the tomato farm posted by Toymaker Len. It increases the viability options.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Well, shiiiit...

Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming - Yale E360