Katoomba Monthly Temp average set to be SMASHED!!! AGAIN!!!

[AlexS]

What about before the BOM actually kept good records...

I wonder what happened in the previous 200, 2000, or 200000 years of Australia????

Just curious, as we don't have records and none of us were here!

As others have touched on, there are other sources of information. Soil and ice cores have been mentioned, but old ships logs extend the record of directly measured recent air and water temperatures, and atmospheric pressures, for close to 200 years. Almost every scientific discipline has people involved in modelling historical temperatures for geological time spans. These include geologists, botanists, marine, terrestrial and atmospheric biologists, bacteriologists and my personal favourite, one I met is a paleopalynologist. All of these disciplines create models which, while not as accurate as direct measurement, can be calibrated reasonably accurately. One model by itself probably doesn't mean much, but so many models, based on different parameters, nearly all showing the same thing, are a pretty sound indication of what's happening.

[A Duke]

The climate is constantly changing. Probably always has and probably always will. The argument should not be directed at its existence but more to how to minimize the effect. As for using Canberra as a barometer, I can't think of anything more ridiculous. It would have to be one of the most inappropriately located cities in the country. Miserable climate, miserable soil and a smog trap. Lovely. And you wonder at the lack of historical Aboriginal occupation?

Poo of the male moo, I love my little town.

[rustynail]

Poo of the male moo, I love my little town.

Some folk are easily pleased.

[NeilS]

Does Australia have access/control of a geostationary, IR capable satellite with sensors sensitive enough to pinpoint small areas over all of Australia?

I don't know if we here in Australia have any control of any IR satellites, but I used this NASA site to monitor the recent fires here in the Adelaide Hills and on Kangaroo Island. It shows active fires in the last 24hr period. You can zoom right in to get precise locations. Use your mouse to get a an exact coordinate reference.

As you can see, the fires in southern NSW and Vic are still very active in the last 24hrs.

FIRMS - Fire Map

[NeilS]

I'm late coming to this discussion having just got back from interstate and before that being distracted by the bush fires here in the Adelaide Hills.

On the MM CC Deniers, I have some in my family and after close observation of them over many decades I see their position as being more one of belief than of coming to an opinion based on any understanding of the available science. Any reading they do on the topic comes from Murdoch rags or pre-packaged bundles of pseudo-facts on denier sites aimed at reassuring themselves of their position.

Many of them also hold the belief that they are being denied the right to hold their beliefs. They feel persecuted and part of a minority group, which is also fertile ground for conspiracy theory promulgaters and shock jocks. No surprise that the latte drinking-lefty-greenies got a serve from that quarter for causing the bush fires by denying controlled fuel reduction burning in National Parks or that it was all caused by arsonists. The explanations and solutions are always simplistic.

In the same way that you won't change someone's religious beliefs with logical argument, I don't try to change their MM CC Denial 'beliefs' with logical argument. You can't. And, it is not surprising that so many MM CC Deniers are also religious fundamentalists. There is a coalition (small c) here in Australia (also in US) between the far right, the religious fundamentalists, social conservatives and MM CC Deniers. They are comfortable with each other and although not all components of that coalition hold to all of the constituent views they are sufficiently adhesive at the moment to hold sway and power here in Australia.

Now, if you think I'm indulging here in a bit of a conspiracy theory myself, have a listen to the podcast with Niki Savva (former senior adviser to to John Howard and Peter Costello) on how ProMo got the top job on his side of the circus. The title of her book, Plots and Prayers, summarises the dirty tricks that were employed by the righteous right.

How brutal politics and righteous prayers toppled a Prime Minister - Conversations - ABC Radio

There is a different dynamic in the UK where there is bi-partisan (left and right) support for action on climate change.

I would be pessimistic about change if it was dependent on that relatively small but controlling coalition (small c again) losing its grip on power here. They may prevail for some time yet.

However, I'm more optimistic about the shift that is quietly going on globally with financial divestment in the fossil fuel industry. For example, BlackRock, the largest asset manager worldwide (worth $10trillion), which has been recalcitrant up until now on climate change action, announced last week that it will be progressively divesting from coal companies and companies that generate at least 25% of their profits from burning thermal coal.

BlackRock, world's largest investment manager, pulls out of thermal coal | RenewEconomy

The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, the largest sovereign fund in the world valued at over US$1.1trillion, commenced its divestment in coal, oil and gas last year. Small steps, but a trend that appears to be gaining momentum over which our local cabal will thankfully have no influence.

I don't wish to change anyone's beliefs, but if you share my views about the need to take action to avoid the tipping point beyond which no human effort can reverse the runaway effects of climate change, then make your views known to your superannuation fund. Their investment decisions on your behalf will give you the greatest leverage in bringing about change. With $3 trillion in superannuation we wealthy Australians can make a difference globally well beyond our population size.

Apologies to anyone who got this far for my long post.

Having got that off my chest it's time to watch the men's singles tennis final on the box...

[Beardy]

Blackrock doesn’t sound like it is completely onboard

Blackrock And Greta Thunberg Team Up, Well Sort Of

[rwbuild]

Blackrock is only following the money and not the mantra, they can see that there is more to be made from environmental thinking and the emergence of new energy technologies, there is no altruistic motivation involved only monetary profit.

[FenceFurniture]

Blackrock is only following the money.

No doubt about that at all.
Do I care?
Nope - it's a result.

Al Capone got locked up for tax evasion, not murder.
Did the Fibbies care?
Nope - they got a result.
Jail is gaol - maybe just in a different wing (with the same privileges that corruption can buy).

Your comment raises a very important point Ray - the Boardrooms of the world have already decided that fossil fuels are out and renewables are either in, or at least ok at arms length. Fine by me if they do it for non-altruistic reasons - I couldn't give a fig if they just want to make some honest/clean money for a change. After all, that is the first legally binding duty of any board - to make a profit for the shareholders.

[Bushmiller]

Neil

Thanks for reminding us of Nikki Savva's interview. Worth listening to again or for the first time so here it is again from a former Liberal party advisor. Interesting.

How brutal politics and righteous prayers toppled a Prime Minister - Conversations - ABC Radio

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

What a shame if we closed all the coal plants.

Wind, solar, hydro, thermal, wave, parabolic solar salt collectors, ethanol, compressed air, CO2 concentrators....

Solar, solar, solar, wind, wind, wind.

HUGE battery reservoirs. Huge desal plants.

I can hear it now... b.b.b.uuutttt Australia doesn't have enough space for solar! Or enough sun! We can't POSSIBLY put 1000 floating wind pontoons off the coast of Sydney! Just.... BECAUSE!!!!!

Wouldn't it be just terrible. Just terrible.


edit: this is interesting. Shows how far behind per capita we are compared to the ROW: Wind power by country - Wikipedia

[q9]

there is no altruistic motivation involved only monetary profit.

That's true, and it tells an important story. Large scale funding of coal projects is done because the alternatives are becoming more competitive and will get even better as more money is invested.

[NeilS]

Blackrock doesn’t sound like it is completely on board

Blackrock And Greta Thunberg Team Up, Well Sort Of

Yes, Beardy, they have come to this position very reluctantly. The US$90 billion loss in their fossil fuel portfolio last year has helped to budge them. Without this shift they would be holding increasingly stranded assets. The smart money abandoned fossil fuel (and in particular coal) assets some time ago.

But, as FenceFurniture notes, whatever the reason, "it's a result".

If anyone is interested in the complex nature of the disjunction between attitudes on climate change action and voting patterns here in Australia I can highly recommend the following two pieces from Rebecca Huntley, one of our leading researchers on social trends. I thinks she has considerable insights into why Australians who when surveyed are widely supportive of action on climate change but are not voting that way, and why some strategies are counterproductive.

Here is a brief article in which she introduces her findings.... you may identify which group you sit in on her six segment spectrum.

Climate change splits the public into six groups. Understanding them is key to future action - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

And, for a more detailed and in depth analysis, listen to the following podcast from her (45mins)....

Why are we so divided on climate change? - Big Ideas - ABC Radio National

My personal experience of her 'Dismissive' group rings true. As expressed before, my view is that I wouldn't waste my time trying to convince them of anything... they won't/can't change. The real concern with them is that, despite being a small minority, they currently have disproportionate power and influence here in Australia. I agree with Huntley, "we need to drive the Dismissive group out of positions of power in our government [and] stop the flow of their donations into our political parties...", while at the same time focussing on the other groups that are more open to change and avoid "the language of crisis and emergency [that] can actually turn off those who are Disengaged and Cautious". They are the voter blocs that are needed to neutralise the disproportionately influential Dismissives.

[FenceFurniture]

January average temp here was 27.0° - third hottest on record. That makes the last three Januaries the three hottest on record.

If Saturday and Sunday had been part of January it would have been yet another record (the ave would have been around 29.5°, which is more than last Jan).

Sunday 2nd Feb was 38.8°, which is a new record for February. For some reason there is no information for Saturday but it was
a) forecast to be 3° hotter than Sunday
b) definitely was about 3° hotter than Sunday in the lived experience
c) in Blackheath (10kms) it was 2.8° hotter than Saturday

So that makes Saturday:
The hottest day ever (not just February) in Katoomba at ~41.6°
The first ever day over 40°
(I have some doubts about those temps being over 40)

However, as it stands, Sunday is the hottest Feb day, due to no info for Sat, and today - two days later - I have jacket on for the forecast high of 18°.



NASA, that well-known pack of untrustworthy charlatans that faked a moon landing and are now faking CC, have just announced that 2019 was the second warmest on record, after 2016, and the last 5 years have all been the warmest of the last 140 years.

Full story:
NASA, NOAA Analyses Reveal 2019 Second Warmest Year on Record – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

[FenceFurniture]

NeilS is right in that it is impossible to change the minds of people who just refuse to believe that CC has been exacerbated by man - we've seen that within this thread (and apparently Senator Jim Molan on Q&A last night - I'm yet to see it). I agree that it is a waste of time and effort
BUT
the deniers are slowing down the best efforts of the best science to be able to do something about this catastrophe within the miserable amount of time left. Out of their fear of losing money they are going to cost themselves more money.

It's a disgrace.

[FenceFurniture]

I seem to recall somebody saying that sea levels are not rising - just look at the records for Fort Denison. Well apparently that is not the case around the North American continent - perhaps like everything else, NA is different?. Sea levels are not just rising, but accelerating (remembering those three new islands discovered in the Arctic Ocean some months ago).

Sea level rise accelerating along US coastline, scientists warn | Environment | The Guardian

A search of "are world sea levels rising" points to plenty of articles.