read this .............a penny for your thoughts?
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read this .............a penny for your thoughts?
Gibbons was very clever wasn't he. This though, relates to the Western World but is predicated on the fall of a single government (US).
When one power goes into demise, another will replace it. This will occur within days, not years as in the case of the Romans, due to the speed of communications.
I'm not sure that war will result, if a global war occurs now, it will most certainly involve China and India, hence Pakistan too. Once those three are in it, the west won't matter anymore.
At least those annoying phone calls will stop.Quote:
Originally Posted by Groggy
Al :p
Hay, maybe we will get some more IT jobs over here....:D:D
Gibbon's account of the fall of the Roman Empire is simplistic at best.
If you want to look at the fall of a Western Society, the US is, in fact, a good example. You can look to its current aggressive behaviour, coupled with a constant drain of public monies along with movement of Army reservists to the fronts they develop, to recognise this. Using reservists is cheaper, and reduces the unemployment figures artificially.
There are in my opinion, two major causes of war within the world. First and foremost is religion and not a long way behinfd is Nationalism, also often described as self interest. Both are currently very highly profiled in the Middle and Far East. If you believe in a God, pray for tolerance and the end of the current monetary system.
The next major war will be over resources. Oil, to be precise. I think the US, Russia, India and China will be fighting over the decreasing supply of oil within the next 10 - 15 years.
The major economies of the world rely on growth. The depletion of oil will stifle the growth of these economies. In a big way.
The the U.S. and others including Australia are massively in debt. The current debt is http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/debtiv.gif Check this out
For the US to continue to pay the sizeable and growing interest on this amount require there economy to grow. Australia are in a similar position.
Interesting, one of the common things about collapses of societies is when the people of the empire no longer fight there own wars and they get mercenaries to do the dirty work. The US doesn't seem to have a shortage of people who are willing to sign up.
Looking at the news tonight, WW3 could be on the way with Israel bombing Beirut civilian airport. It seems to me (at present, tired and emotional) that each side in that Middle East conflict are raving loonies hell bent on complete and utter destruction of the other, armies, governments, innocent civilians, tourists, infrastructure etc.
How long before other (outside) powers decide to take sides?
Is there going to be another Archduke Ferdinand snuffed out?
Perhaps we should consider blockading the entire Middle East, not just Lebanon, and let them wipe each other out.
I've never seen an image of that part of the world that would inspire possessive thoughts in anyone except a concrete plant manager looking for cheap sand, certainly nothing worth fighting over.
Cheers (or should that be "Doom & Gloom)
Graeme
(Dons flame shield)
Oil?Quote:
I've never seen an image of that part of the world that would inspire possessive thoughts in anyone except a concrete plant manager looking for cheap sand, certainly nothing worth fighting over.
Grunt's comments have some...well.. grunt. It is as I said, Religion and Nationalism (or self interest). Here, that would be economic growth of each individual economy at the expense of everything that humans hold precious.
The danger in the Middle East is the total hate of the state of Israel by those Arab nations surrounding it. If Syria gets involved and with the US pretty much stretched, I doubt Israel will have much chance fighting on three fronts.
This time I'm not sure the US will be much help. Israel also is undergoing political strife. For the first time in a long time they do not have a strong, forthright and , dare I say it, visionary leader. The Arab states under the "leadership of Hammas are much more organised.
Gibbons has only drawn comparisons to specific things
Was the fact that roman males no longer had to spend 20 years in military service a factor to the fall of the Roman Empire
He does not mention that slaves in Rome out numbered citizens by a factor of 3 to 1
He has in fact drawn comparisons only in fields that are reconisable in todays world and therefor his whole hypotheses is floored
Now as to the penny I will Pm you my address , something between 1929 and 1931 would go nicely in my collection thanks , I am relying on your honesty in offering the penny for my thoughts on the subject and now that I have given them that you will be forthcomming with the penny.
Rgds
The US will always help Israel, there is no doubt about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Flowboy
The Jewish lobby in New York is too powerfull for a President to ignore Israel. If he does he wouldn't get re-elected which is the cardinal rule and only aim of any politician.:mad:
The other thing that the US will never forget is that Israel has enough nuclear weapons and the means of delivery to obliterate all the arab nations around it and therefore make the world's major oilfields unuseable. Also, unlike the US, they have the will to use these weapons as a final resort for they will never allow another holocaust of their people to happen.
Given the above and the Arabs desire to drive Israel out of existance the US will never allow that situation to happen and they will help Israel, if not openly at least covertly.
Peter.
Good discussion and some very pertinent points.
some History of Palestine
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/debtiv.gif
I cant even pronounce that number!
(notice its gone up 10,000,000.00 in 3 hrs...)
Thanks Sturdee, I should have made mention of this in my response. (Blame it on the limited capacity of by brain!)
There are two facors which complicate the US/Israel friendship.
George (Nucular) dubblya really doesn't control the administration. That role is shared between Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney, both of whom have huge holdings in Haliburton Inc. This is the company that got most of the oil, laundry and other business arising from the invasion of Iraq. They have a vested interest, to say the least, in maintaining control over Iraq. Also, George may not be there much longer.
In addition, the US is currently tap dancing on water with Iran and has just reached agreement with Damascus. It would be easy for Syria to allow free transit of terrorists to Iraq, while fighting Israel with its regular army. Thus the US must be very careful whose and how many toes it stands on. So I think you will see a lot of Diplomatic effort (Go Conny Go!!) and stalling, but military intervention is open to conjecture.
Just for good measure, throw in Nth Korea and now India, where as people have previously stated, US business has a very large stake.
Regards,
Rob
This quote was attributed to Albert Einstein. I don't know what WW3 will be fought with but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones. That means I could be a super power cause I have a mean fastball
Could that mean that "he who has the most handtools when he dies wins?"
To steal and modify from someone else.
_______________________________________
P is for Pine is for Practice
The situation (re)developing in the Middle East is a worry, esp. with the Sheriff currently preoccupied by Iraq, Iran, Nth Korea et al. From what I've read the US will always feel obligated/pressured into helping Israel.
The real importance that the Middle East pocesses is simply the oil deposits...which makes it blatantly obvious to me, the way to avoid being involved in said conflict is to reduce reliance on oil. Full stop. Develop transport networks independant of oil. Develop alternative power sources. Of course then the snouts-in-troughs (ie. Canberra) will need to find another source of parasitic income, to ensure unencumbered payrises whenever they want!
Australia is in real danger of getting tangled up in the US's coat tails, but our own Deputy seems adamant they're our own best friends. Maybe he can see the writing on the wall, and wants G Dubya alongside...powerful allies etc.
To us on this isolated continent, we need to ensure radical Islam isn't stirred to fever pitch by carry-on in the Middle East, because our borders are close to a bulk of them. And Johnny seems at least alert (if not alarmed) to that threat, but not enough to step away from a conflict that isn't ours.
My personal view is to bring our troops home from wherever and give the nation some sense of home security, after all we are basically unable to defend ourselves (ummm, who guaranteed that?!) ...or is that head-in-the-sand thinking?
Regards,
The danger in the Middle East is the total hate, by the Israeli's, of the states surrounding Israel.Quote:
The danger in the Middle East is the total hate of the state of Israel by those Arab nations surrounding it.
... and it will go on, and on, and on.
I find it quite interesting that the Jewish people can have such a terrible wrong committed against them, and then can go can committ such a terrible wrong on others.
Interesting and very sad.
It seems that there is a complete lack of an ability to act in a decent and civilised manner on both sides. Coupled with an inability to see that they (both sides) are continuing to sow the seeds of future hatred by the acts each side commits daily, it leaves so little hope for ever resolving the conflict. :(
I take Peter's points and broadly agree with them.
However, I grossly object to the Israeli's use of excessive force against the West Bank and now Lebanon. They are out of control, and will, IMO, cause untold social, political and economic damage if allowd to continue.
I could go on extensively, but this isn't the forum for any kind of political soapbox, so I'll shut up now.
I do too. :mad: It's like taking a sledgehammer to crack a pistachio nut.Quote:
Originally Posted by Auld Bassoon
I believe that a country has every right to defend itself and in so doing use every weapon available to it, uncluding nuclear, but what is happening now is totally unacceptable.
It is no longer defence but unacceptable agression and our little Johnie is excusing this.:mad:
Peter.
Peter if NZ started lobbing rockets into Australia and some of my family were killed what should the Australian Government do ,Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturdee
Personally I'de want them to blow them off the map
But the middle east is diffrent it has too many players with too many agendas
How complex could it be
Israeli wants and needs cheap labour
The Palistinies were never driven from their homeland a lot left but were never expelled
All citizens in Israeli arab and jews vote in their elections with an equal vote
This last peace and agreement was not broken by Israeli
Syria want to take over lebanon
The Lebanoneese want to take over Marrickville
Israeli want nice peacefull workers to do the mundane things and pay a pittance
Iran is spoiling for a reason and want nuclear arms
The Arab states will never recognise Israel
The yanks can't afford to not support them the Jewish lobby decide the outcome of the US elections
And Australia have had peace keepers & observers in Israel and Palastine since the 1960's
The Israeli's were proberly the first to use suicide bombers ( against the british ) for political reasons to gain their Freedom
The Israeli's hold in excess of 10,000 prisoners including women and children , some being held without trial and the opporsition want them free and are using any means they can to get them free as you would
Etc Etc
That comparison is not quite correct. It should be if some New Zealanders became terrorists and lobbed rockects to us not the country itself.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashore
By all means invade Lebanon and get the terrorists , but to bomb that country back to the stone age again is unacceptable.
It is indeed a very complex issue and will never be resolved. The emnity between the Jews and Arabs , both racially and religiously, have been there for centuries and will always be there.
I personally believe in the right of existance of the state of Israel and believe that the wealthy Arab nations should have resettled the palestinians decades ago instead of financing their continued terrorism against Israel.
But what is currently happening is wrong and our government should speak out against it instead of being the US lackey again.:mad:
Peter.
Another interesting thing is that @10 years ago there was almost total opposition to the Palestinians and total support of the Isreali's.
That has certainly changed.
Fair call , Though the terrorists in this case are part of the Government of Lebanon and that Government did nothing about their actions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Sturdee
But I feel you are correct in saying Israel's reaction has gone too far, still I say this sitting at home in Australia and and making a judgement based on the news coverage shown here .
Russell
Israel though this time have gone in to look and for and retrieve one lowly corporal who was captured. Hmm was this just a convenient excuse. I think so.
Didn't the European Jews move in after the 2nd world war and displace the Palestinians? I have not studied it, but that was my hazy recollection.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashore
Q. WHAT IS THE CURRENT HISTORY OF PALESTINIAN?
A. In the end of 19 century and early Th century, Palestine (as will as all the adjusting Arab countries) was rules by Turkish (Muslims) in one Islamic empire, the capital was in Istanbul. In the first World War, Arabs were looking to get there independents from Turkish empire to establish there own countries in emirates like Syria, Palestine, Saudi, Iraq, Egypt etc. Therefore they agreed to collaborated with Britain in the W.W.I against promises to help Arab emirates to get there independents after the war from the Islamic Turkish empire. What happens after the war that Britain and France toke control of all Arab countries under what know as Mandate system. Britain toke the mandate on Palestine. In 1917 Jams Aurther Balfour (The Great Britain minister) gave a written promise to the Jews around the world to help them to establish there own home land in Palestine by supporting and facilitating there immigration to Palestine. Immigration started before that date after Zionist movement held their conference in 1897 and set their goal of establishing the Jews homeland on Palestine. Jews started to come to Palestine in mass number with a great help and facility from Britain mandate power which allow them to buy governmental lands and to confiscate a huge Palestinian owned lands to be given to Jews to build there camps and farms. Britain also started to arm the Jews and allowing them to organize themselves, some Zionist armed groups established and worked as the core of the future Israel army like Hagana and others.
In 1936 Palestinians started to protest the mandate authority policy and they're beside with Jews. They struggles to push Britain to give them their rights and to stop lands transfer to Jews, to stop the Jews legal and illegal immigration and to stop them from killing the Arabs.
In 1947 the Jews groups like Hagana start the war against Arab in order to occupy as much as possible from Arab lands, they were attacking Arab villages and home causing more then 400 massacre killing thousands of Arab Palestinians. All that to force Arab to leave their lands and to immigrate to other countries. In the other hand Arab was trying to defend their families by facing the Jewish groups and attacking them.
In 1947 Britain toke the issue of Palestine to the UN to decide about it, there UN issued resolution number 181 about the Partition of Palestine to an Arab country and Jews country with Jerusalem and an International zone. Arab rejected this proposal since it was giving the Jews more land then Arab (Arab were number of times more the Jews).
In 1948 Britain decided to leave Palestine and to end the mandate, on the same day, Jews declare there independent state and Arab launch a full-scale war against the new created Jews state. Israel won the war and toke control of 78% of the land of Palestine (all except Gaza Strip and West Bank include east Jerusalem). West Bank was under Jordan administration, Gaza Strip was under Egypt Administration.
Because of the massacres and the war, huge number of Palestinians in the lands occupied by the Jewish lifts their homes and become refugees in other Arab countries like Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
In 1967 Israel launch another full-scale war "the six days war" against Arab countries. Israel won the war and occupied Gaza Strip, West Bank, East Jerusalem, Part of Jordan, Part of Syria and Part of Egypt. UN issued a resolution number 242 considering the Israeli occupation illegal and calling Israel to leave the Arab land occupied in 1967 war. Israel rejected all UN resolution related to the Palestine issue.
By the full meaning of the word, West Bank including East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip are occupied territories as per the International Laws and the UN resolutions, even USA approved the 242 resolutions, which consider all the land occupied in 1967 by Israeli as an occupied territories and NOT a part of Israel.
Palestinians demands now that Israel should comply to the UN resolution number 242 and leave the Palestine lands occupied in 1967 to allow the Palestine to established there own home land in that lands, as will as solving the related issues such as Palestinian Refugees and Jews settlements in West Bank and Gaza Strip.
In the early sixties, PLO established with number of Palestinian fighting groups like Fatah, democratic front and others and start to legitimate freedom straggle against Israel across the boarders and from inside to free the lands and return there rights of having there own state.
In 1973, Egypt and Syria launch a war against Israeli and they manage to free some lands of Sinai and the war ended by number of UN agreement.
In 1988 Palestinian started to look for a peaceful solution to the conflict based on the International law and UN resolution no 242 and others. In a major compromise, they accepted the existent of Israel on the Palestinian land occupied in 1948, in return they asked Israel to give back the lands occupied in 1967 (West Bank including east Jerusalem and Gaza Strip) to establish the Palestinian state and to live in peace with Israel. All other Arab countries supported the Palestinian in this approach and they also accepted Israel and even started some peace talks with it.
After the peace agreement in 13 Sep 1993, Israel allowed a limited self rule to the Palestinians in Parts of Gaza Strip and the parts of West Bank, and the current negotiation is to complete the hand over of all West Bank and Gaza Strip to the Palestinian authority including the east Jerusalem based on UN 242 resolution also to solve other issues such as the 3.7 Millions Palestinian refugees, Jewish settlements and other issues.
Number of other agreement reached though peace talk and Israel withdraw from some land, which is now role by the PNA (Palestinian National authority).
There are historical rights to the Palestinian nation of the land of Palestine, they have the right like any other nation of having there own state which will take care of there benefits, they have the right of freedom and to decide for themselves.
[quote=Ashore]Peter if NZ started lobbing rockets into Australia and some of my family were killed what should the Australian Government do ,
Personally I'de want them to blow them off the map[quote]
Come off it! Half the people who died would be their own citizens! Electoral suicide!
So what you're saying, Martrix, is that the Israelites were ar5eholes in 1947 as much as they are now.
You certainly don't let the truth get in the way of a good storyQuote:
Originally Posted by martrix
"In 1967 Israel launch another full-scale war "the six days war" against Arab countries."
Who invaded whom?????
Quote:
Originally Posted by wikipedia
Its funny, the Arabs and Jews are almost identical genetically. Both of Semetic origin.
Maybe they deserve each other.
Another point, all this Arab stuff about Jerusalem being their 'holy' city, has no basis in history. In fact Jerusalem 'holy sites' were razed several times in the past by Arab invaders. Archealogical digs have found evidence of this in digs going back to Crusader times.
Just another bit of spin to lend credence to one sides claims.
Also, I do remember that modern day terrorism, ie hijacks and blowing up passenger aircraft, was invented by that grizzled old terrorist Mr Arafat, he of the Nobel Peace prize. His party Fatah, was considered too moderate and Hamas got the Palestinian Government.
As I remember this whole current conflict started when Hezbollah kidnapped an Israeli soldier, from a base in Gaza.
Does seem a gross over reaction by Israel tho, bombing Lebanon back to the Stone Age, when the international community had only just finished paying to re-build after the Falangist/Muslim conflict and then Syria's depredations.
Gotta pity the ordinary Lebanese and their Government. The Lebanese Army is completely outgunned by Hezbollah, financed by the Mad Mullahs of Iran (those few left who aren't selling rugs in bankcruptcy sales here)and the family psychopath dynasty in Syria.
"The war was initiated by an Israeli response to Egyptian aggression,"
So maybe I should have said, "Who started it?"