Rob Streeper - a USA member here - got the C19 virus

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Originally Posted by rob streeper

I wouldn't call the US a failed state. In my estimation the elements of state power rest on three legs.

The first and most important is possession of 'the bomb' and the means to deliver it. Going along with this of course is a powerful military as a necessary but not sufficient condition.

Next is financial power. The US dollar is still the default currency of the world and will likely remain so for some time due to the size of the US economy.

Finally is the technological base. In this area the US still is supreme but the competitors are much closer and are surpassing the US in many important areas. Since the 80's the US has disinvested in support of broader higher education with the result that there is now a notable shortage of technical people in many areas of science and technology.

As US superiority in the intellectual areas is surpassed the power of the state will depend more and more on 'the bomb' and the money sector. Recent events have shown the money markets have numerous weak points - black swans have been showing up with increasing frequency in recent decades, many foreseeable but some not. The military arm depends critically on science and technology and as the scientific capability of the nation erodes due to under-investment the competitors will eventually surpass the US.

Ultimately though demographics will win and the new focus of world power will be in the East, can't say when but it will be a while.

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Rob

That sums it up exactly: It is also a shocking reality. The style may have subtly changed, but otherwise not much has changed since previous dominant empires sought to dictate to the world. Some were successful for a while such as the British Empire, the Roman Empire, the Greeks, the Egyptians, the Chinese (they are positioning for a second bite of the apple) and some not so successful including France under Napoleon and Germany under Hitler. However I draw your and other readers attention to my long time signature and the words of Lord Acton or was William Pitt, the elder?

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bushmiller

Some were successful for a while such as the British Empire, the Roman Empire, the Greeks, the Egyptians, the Chinese (they are positioning for a second bite of the apple) and some not so successful including France under Napoleon and Germany under Hitler.

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So if we call the USA a dominant "empire", and acknowledge that they have actually been quite successful in dictating to the world (Chinese nationals who learn to speak English do so with an American accent - impact of the WWWeb), we also have to acknowledge that out of the countries your list, they have only outlasted Hitler's Chermany :D (France has colonised much of Africa and the South Pacific).

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Originally Posted by Cgcc

their gun culture.

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The problem of gun violence is rooted in economic disenfranchisement. Resistance to tyranny is invoked, in most cases, speciously. The motivator IMO is atomization of the society and an 'Every man for himself' type of thinking. Most of the people in this category are disgruntled white guys holding on to the bottom rung of the economic ladder who use their guns as a kind of psychological security blanket. Look at the videos, most are in such poor physical shape that they struggle to pull themselves up off of the couch and are by no means fit enough to fight any battles.
The US has become a collection of individuals at the instigation of decades of poor government policy. Every rat is fighting with every other rat for the scraps from our masters table and some of these rats are armed and angry.

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Originally Posted by rob streeper

Most of the people in this category are disgruntled white guys holding on to the bottom rung of the economic ladder who use their guns as a kind of psychological security blanket. Look at the videos, most are in such poor physical shape that they struggle to pull themselves up off of the couch and are by no means fit enough to fight any battles.

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Hmmm. You must mean these boys.

Attachment 473207

Summer weather apparently offers little protection. Impact of climate and public health interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective cohort study | CMAJ

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Hmmm. You must mean these boys.

Attachment 473207

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Yep, these guns are really the sort of weapons needed to combat Coronavirus. Bore 19 weapons I would guess ?!!!

Rob, I hope you get better soon. There is nothing worse than chasing off a long illness.

Not so long ago (so it feels!) I managed to catch the Bird Flue (H1N1) while taking my daughter to the hospital (glandular fever). She'd run herself into the ground with study.

I was there about 4 hours, tops. It was a quiet night, so there was no waiting in ED, straight in, bed, doctor, blood tests, diagnosis, out.

Shortly after I had the worst flu I've ever had in my entire life. It was horrendous. All descriptions of the effects would fail the Naughty Words lists of the forum. A swab test at the doctors confirmed the DNA was "the one from the hospital". THANKS medical system!

It was like a continuous and violent tequila hangover, during a heavy metal concert, while being beaten by blunt cudgels.... all while the room felt it went from Arctic freezing to Saharan heat.

It took weeks to get over properly.

Rob - give us updates. There are many here keen to hear of first hand experiences.

Another experience.

Paul Garner: For 7 weeks I have been through a roller coaster of ill health, extreme emotions, and utter exhaustion - The BMJ

This sounds familiar.

medRxiv 2020.02.28.20029181; doi: Highly ACE2 Expression in Pancreas May Cause Pancreas Damage After SARS-CoV-2 Infection | medRxiv

Some more showing Covid 19 induced pancreatitis.

Pancreatic injury patterns in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia Redirecting

COVID-19 presenting as acute pancreatitis Redirecting

and hyperglycemia

Hyperglycemia and the novel Covid-19 infection: Possible pathophysiologic mechanisms doi: 10.1016/j.mehy.2020.109699

Kawasakis in kids. Sterility in some men. Low sperm counts in others. Heart damage, lung damage, brain injuries....

Mutations... long term hiding... people getting "reinfected".

The gift that keeps on giving! :C

Pancreatitis and associated hyperglycemia now resolved. Also feeling stronger and rebuilding lost muscle mass. GI problems mostly resolved and vision near normal.

Glad to hear you are on the mend.

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Originally Posted by Lappa

I communicate with my sister in California regularly and it appears the Governor is doing a great job - ignoring Trump and keeping the restrictions in place.

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that's a bad joke. Newsome is incompetent, but he's lucky that foreign tourists don't see california as the same tourist destination that they see NYC. The epicenter of NYC (which includes where many work) is a huge tourist destination. I can't think of much other than a few points around LA (small areas that aren't economic centers, like hollywood) that attract tourists.

Trump incompetence doesn't make Newsome competent. They're both dweebs for different reasons.

Newsome has mastered never telling the truth or answering any question directly, though. Early in his career, he made the mistake of telling fibs to adam carolla (that he grew up poor when in fact, his dad was general counsel at a large corporation and his parents were divorced. So he claimed his mother's means made him poor when they didn't). He's full of stuff like that.

We can see the nastiness of trump, he shows it to everyone. People like Newsome are no better.

@Rob, any update on how you're doing mate?


I think of you poor buggers over there and the ... troubles... there are.

My son said to me only this morning that 1% of people in the USA now have the lurgie. Seems that 99% to go isn't such a welcoming number.

All, be safe.

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

My son said to me only this morning that 1% of people in the USA now have the lurgie. Seems that 99% to go isn't such a welcoming number.

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In the now closed thread on a very similar topic, BobL posted that serum testing in LA area about six weeks ago, indicated that around 1 in 8 persons had been exposed to Covid-19. BobL was projecting more than 40 million infections.
Myself? I think the actual number exposed is likely to be more than 100 million.

We can only hope that whatever the number is, it is +1 :;

Interesting update from the US

“The news today is that hospitals are no longer to send their covid data to the Center for Disease Control but to the administration - this is a huge mistake as the CDC has opened its databases to all the researchers and modelers and this is how all the predictions are made. The administration database will not be open to researchers or modelers - we will see but it is most likely an attempt to hide the truth from the American public.”

Anything to get re-elected. Absolutely ANYTHING.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Anything to get re-elected. Absolutely ANYTHING.

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Today, in a non-woodworking discussion group I saw an election result where all the Republican State Governors -- who collectively control the slate of Electoral College votes -- can ensure Trump's re-election by not allowing their state's Electoral College votes to be counted. The Democrats need 270 EC votes, but if the Republican Governors direct, perhaps I should say persuade, the EC voters to spoil their ballots then the result comes down to a vote in Congress where each state gets just one vote. Trump then wins 26 to 24.

I've also seen a prediction (on Legaleagle.com ?) where Trump wins by making it too hard for democrat supporting voters to vote. Doing so in a few states would allow Trump to win without "cheating" as the US constitution doesn't guarantee equal access to the ability to vote.

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Originally Posted by ian

Today, in a non-woodworking discussion group I saw an election result where all the Republican State Governors -- who collectively control the slate of Electoral College votes -- can ensure Trump's re-election by not allowing their state's Electoral College votes to be counted. The Democrats need 270 EC votes, but if the Republican Governors direct, perhaps I should say persuade, the EC voters to spoil their ballots then the result comes down to a vote in Congress where each state gets just one vote. Trump then wins 26 to 24.

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You mean the Federal Congress? Who is the person that votes?

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

You mean the Federal Congress? Who is the person that votes?

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Like most things in the US, it's complicated

The 12th Amendment to the US Constitution (which overrides the process set out in the Constitution itself) provides

For an Electoral College to elect the President and Vice-President of the US.
The numbers of members of the Electoral College was "frozen in stone" back in 1911 when the size of the House of Representatives was fixed at a maximum of 435 representatives. The addition of new states (e.g. New Mexico and Arizona in 1912, and Alaska and Hawaii in 1959) and the tripling of the US population since 1911 has largely decoupled Hose representation from State population. In addition to the electors representing the number of Representatives each State is entitled to, each state also gets two votes for each of its two senators.

Importantly, while individual voters in each state get a say in who is elected to the Electoral College, they don't actually vote for the President and Vice President and their decision is not final. The actual decision on how Electoral College votes are applied is up to the person who is State Governor at the time.

So the process of selecting the members of the Electoral College is controlled by the State Governor who in theory governs each state. Currently there are 26 Republican State Governors. The argument presented on the non-woodworking site postulates that if the democratic nominee does NOT secure the 270 Electoral College votes required to ensure election via the Electoral College process, then the Constitution kicks back in and the "president" is selected by the House of Representatives voting one vote per state (50 votes in total) and Trump wins 26 to 24.


It is only a convention that the US populace is allowed to vote for members of the Electoral College who go onto cast votes for the President / Vice President. As far as I can see there is no Constitutional requirement that a State's Electoral College representatives be selected by "the people".

Likewise, as far as I can see, there is no constitutional requirement that the winner takes all system apply to electoral college votes.


The above is separate to the other possibility that the ability of likely democratic leaning voters might be frustrated by lengthy poll delays that do not apply to likely republican leaning voters.

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Originally Posted by ian

the Constitution kicks back in and the "president" is selected by the House of Representatives voting one vote per state (50 votes in total) and Trump wins 26 to 24.

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The part I can't get hold of is who is the one person per state that votes? A congress-person? If so who determines which 50 of them out of the 435 get to vote? In CA for example, as the most populous state, there are 53 members of Congress. One of them gets to vote and the other 52 don't? Who determines who that one person is?

If it was the Senate I could understand it because it would be the Senior Senator from each state (which may or may not be in Republican hands - the State Governors can easily be a different flavour to the Senators).

In any case, however that scenario might work, if it was taken then a couple of things might happen:
1. The protests over George Floyd may look like a Sunday picnic compared to what might happen if the voting books are effectively cooked, and
2. It seems likely the the Democrats will not only retain the House but also win the Senate as well - currently 2 Independents, 45 Dems, 53 Publicans, so the Dems need to win 5 Senate seat to gain control with Ind support, or 6 for absolute control. That would make another Impeachment extremely likely ASAP, and I doubt they'll have to search too hard for grounds. Being so early in the cycle they could take the proper amount of time this time around, and also control the calling of witnesses in the Senate. To get to a conviction vote of 67 may well still be problematic, as I don't see the Dems picking up around 20 Senate seats (of the 35 up for election, 12 are currently Dems, so they'd have to win 20/23 - nup).

Mind you, there might be enough Publican Senators who have had enough of the BS by then, and are willing to follow Romney's brave example.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

The part I can't get hold of is who is the one person per state that votes? A congress-person? If so who determines which 50 of them out of the 435 get to vote? In CA for example, as the most populous state, there are 53 members of Congress. One of them gets to vote and the other 52 don't? Who determines who that one person is?

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as far as I can tell, the decision of who the "House by State vote" is cast for is up to the discretion of the State's Governor.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

If it was the Senate I could understand it because it would be the Senior Senator from each state (which may or may not be in Republican hands - the State Governors can easily be a different flavour to the Senators).

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Under the 12th Amendment, each state senator gets to cast one vote for the Vice-President -- therefore the total is 100 votes. And an absolute majority (more than half the Senate membership) is required to confirm the VP.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

In any case, however that scenario might work, if it was taken then a couple of things might happen:
1. The protests over George Floyd may look like a Sunday picnic compared to what might happen if the voting books are effectively cooked

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be careful using the words "effectively cooked"

as far as I can see, the States retain significant power and it would all be perfectly legal. And the US tends to favour "black letter law". If something is not explicitly illegal, then it's all a OK.

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Originally Posted by ian

as far as I can tell, the decision of who the "House by State vote" is cast for is up to the discretion of the State's Governor.

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Well that could get very interesting. There are a number of Publican Governors that have denounced Trump. This list is a bit old I think (some of them are no longer in office - maybe it was after 2016 election?). However, a number of them are still there, and I doubt they have improved their opinion of him....it would only take one dissenter for 25-25, and two for 26-24 t'other way around.

I would be absolutely certain that if he does lose, and concedes defeat, that he will not attend the inauguration of Biden or co-operate with the handover. Doing so would be an act of maturity from a man-child.

This morning I had cause to be writing about so called "Pacific Jarrah" or Manilkara bidentata. It occurred to me it should be Trump's favourite tree...Biden? Tat-a! :D

Larry Hogan (Maryland Gov, Rep) might just be a fly in Trump's ointment:
The truth about Trump from one Republican governor - The Boston Globe

His term doesn't finish until 2023, but he can't stand again, due to term limits, so he could do as his conscience tells him too without too much fear of recriminations.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Anything to get re-elected. Absolutely ANYTHING.

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welcome to politics in the USA. meddling in the last election was overlooked as it was assumed it would sink Trump.

Then it was suddenly an issue worth addressing after the election because of the outcome (though it didn't have anything to do with the outcome).

States here keep their own data, it's not hard to get it if you want to see something from it. I suppose CDC is under direction of the executive branch.

We have three branches here.

The fourth branch (the voting branch) will solve this problem in november.

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Originally Posted by ian

Today, in a non-woodworking discussion group I saw an election result where all the Republican State Governors -- who collectively control the slate of Electoral College votes -- can ensure Trump's re-election by not allowing their state's Electoral College votes to be counted. The Democrats need 270 EC votes, but if the Republican Governors direct, perhaps I should say persuade, the EC voters to spoil their ballots then the result comes down to a vote in Congress where each state gets just one vote. Trump then wins 26 to 24.

I've also seen a prediction (on Legaleagle.com ?) where Trump wins by making it too hard for democrat supporting voters to vote. Doing so in a few states would allow Trump to win without "cheating" as the US constitution doesn't guarantee equal access to the ability to vote.

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You can ignore that sensationalism, it'll never happen. Trump is down 15 points in the popular vote and you can't win the electoral vote. Hypotheticals about what may happen or "could" be legal are just sensationalist trash. pro wrestling what if type junk.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

Larry Hogan (Maryland Gov, Rep) might just be a fly in Trump's ointment:
The truth about Trump from one Republican governor - The Boston Globe

His term doesn't finish until 2023, but he can't stand again, due to term limits, so he could do as his conscience tells him too without too much fear of recriminations.

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A republican in maryland isn't really a republican. I don't know how familiar you are with the states, but republicans in maine and maryland aren't really republicans. They're registered republican to avoid running against democrats in primaries.

Maryland is a very wealthy state with only a small rural minority. The state itself is dependent heavily on federal funds and federal contracting. Maine is an oddball state - it's like a different country. Anti business (not a criticism of them, that's just their M.O. up there -everything local and anything that looks corporate is generally kicked out of the state) and individualistic but not in a MAGA type sense - more like in a throwback sense.

Biden is the next president. I wish the DNC would've taken candidate selection a little bit more seriously - we've had too many elderly and virtue signal politicians lately.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

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so he could do as his conscience tells him too without too much fear of recriminations.

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That's a quaint notion, and very naive.

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Originally Posted by ian

be careful using the words "effectively cooked"

as far as I can see, the States retain significant power and it would all be perfectly legal. And the US tends to favour "black letter law". If something is not explicitly illegal, then it's all a OK.

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The reality of how it works is this:
* 48 states cast all of their electoral votes for the majority or plurality winner in an election
* maine and nebraska have slightly different rules (neither has many electoral votes).

Win the electoral college, and you win the election. The hoopla about this or that delegate turning, etc, is just that. If biden just stays quiet, he wins easily because all of the delegates in swing states will go the opposite direction vs. last election.

Citizens in states will not tolerate anything else with their electoral votes other than what was done before.

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

...Romney's brave example.

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That's funny, too. Romney, Bushes and Trump all hate each other. They have since primaries of the last election.

Romney and his relatives made money stripping value of every company they've come across away from all of the people who work for the companies so they can retain that value for themselves or establish an increased profit pattern and upsell the company on a follow-up deal (which permanently eliminates the employees and workers chance of ever being treated like humans again).

He's not that virtuous.

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Originally Posted by D.W.

That's a quaint notion, and very naive.

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It does happen. Prolly not in the US these days though.

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Originally Posted by D.W.

The fourth branch (the voting branch) will solve this problem in november.
Biden is the next president.

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Well the rest of the world certainly hopes so - and not necessarily because Biden is a good choice - he's just "the other guy"; the Non-Trump candidate).

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Originally Posted by D.W.

we've had too many elderly and virtue signal politicians lately.

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Agreed. The next POTUS needs to be a highly skilled negotiator (with the US Public first so they calm-TF-down, then the ROtW so we can calm-TF-down). I'm not sure if that's Biden, but I don't think it was Warren or Sanders.

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Originally Posted by D.W.

He's (Romney) not that virtuous.

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I'm not saying he's virtuous, or indeed that I either like or respect him - I'm very glad he did not become POTUS. Just saying he was the only one with the guts to stand up to Trump and the GOP in the impeachment, knowing full well he was the only one and that his voted counted for jack. The rest hid under their desks like scaredy cats in a thunderstorm.

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Originally Posted by D.W.

The reality of how it works is this:
* 48 states cast all of their electoral votes....................
Win the electoral college, and you win the election. The hoopla about this or that delegate turning, etc, is just that.

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In a normal situation yes, but these are bizarre times on a number of fronts. We've already seen him speculating about a 20 year (or something) Trump dynasty. Certainly hope it's the case that the election is conducted/won/lost within the usual parameters, otherwise it could get way out of hand over there, which will destabilise the ROtW, and embolden one or two other countries even more.

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Originally Posted by D.W.

Citizens in states will not tolerate anything else with their electoral votes other than what was done before.

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So what would they do? Storm the WH as an anarchic mob? They tolerated Trump getting the EC votes with a 3mill popular vote deficit, and they tolerate the various gerrymanders, and they seem to tolerate the guff about mail voting being a bad thing even though the chief whiner does it, and they even tolerate having to queue for hours to vote a few times each election cycle, so.....
(by contrast - and this is with compulsory voting here, as it should be - it takes me about 10-15 minutes to vote including travel to/from, and plus Sausage Sandwich purchase and consumption time).

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Originally Posted by D.W.

The reality of how it works is this:
* 48 states cast all of their electoral votes for the majority or plurality winner in an election
* maine and nebraska have slightly different rules (neither has many electoral votes).

Win the electoral college, and you win the election. The hoopla about this or that delegate turning, etc, is just that. If biden just stays quiet, he wins easily because all of the delegates in swing states will go the opposite direction vs. last election.

Citizens in states will not tolerate anything else with their electoral votes other than what was done before.

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what if in Republican controlled states it is easier to vote in the those counties that are Republican strongholds -- i.e. there are more places to cast your ballot -- than it is to vote in those counties that are Democrat strongholds -- i.e. as a Democrat supporter you have to queue for hours to cast your ballot.

Trump wins the "popular vote" and the EC because not enough Democrat supporters can afford to stand in line for 5+ hours to have their vote counted.

Source: Super Tuesday fury as ‘thousands of voters’ in black and Latino neighbourhoods forced to queue for hours in Texas | The Independent
"Voters from predominantly black and Latino neighbourhoods were forced to wait for hours to cast their ballot in Texas on Super Tuesday after long lines were reported at some polling stations.
Election officials in the Houston area were forced to send in additional voting machines as thousands of people reportedly waited for up to five hours to vote at one station.
The long waits came after the closure of hundreds of polling stations across Texas by the Republican-led state government since 2012."

In that scenario, would the "Citizens" in those states actually object to the practice?

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Originally Posted by ian

Trump wins the "popular vote" and the EC because not enough Democrat supporters can afford to stand in line for 5+ hours to have their vote counted.

Source: Super Tuesday fury as ‘thousands of voters’ in black and Latino neighbourhoods forced to queue for hours in Texas | The Independent
"Voters from predominantly black and Latino neighbourhoods were forced to wait for hours to cast their ballot in Texas on Super Tuesday after long lines were reported at some polling stations.
Election officials in the Houston area were forced to send in additional voting machines as thousands of people reportedly waited for up to five hours to vote at one station.
The long waits came after the closure of hundreds of polling stations across Texas by the Republican-led state government since 2012."

In that scenario, would the "Citizens" in those states actually object to the practice?

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I read the authorities used the opportunity to check each (Black/Latino) person for outstanding warrants! What a system! Nothing toxic there....

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Originally Posted by FenceFurniture

...by contrast - and this is with compulsory voting here, as it should be - it takes me about 10-15 minutes to vote including travel to/from, and plus Sausage Sandwich purchase and consumption time....

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Well, that's what's wrong with the whole bloody USAnian voting system.... no frickin sausage sandwich. Idiots. ;)


On another slightly less harsh matter, I remembered the picture of some months (weeks?) ago of some prime libertarian comrades showing their dissent on mask wearing and being "told what to do"..... Wonder how many now have COVID19 or are dead of it? THAT would interest me.

"Give me liberty and give me death!" .... "err, OR death... not and... or" something something....


The more I read, the more I'm convinced that the USA is a failed state in the last stages of implosion.

Failed State?
Imploding?
What?
Obviously you don't own Apple or Netflix or Facebook or Caterpillar or Tesla shares or understand the military power of the US.
We've had more political angst in Australia in the last ten years than a few years of Trump has generated in the US.
I'd suggest you spend the time in the garden and stop reading if that is your conclusion.
Regards
Greg

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Originally Posted by Greg Ward

We've had more political angst in Australia in the last ten years than a few years of Trump has generated in the US.

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Jeez, I dunno about that Greg. Yes we've had some instability with the merry-go-round of PMs, but we've still only had one change of Govt since after 2007. Trump has managed to (deliberately, I might add) divide the country in two (or more?) in just three years, and purely for his own purposes. I've no doubt there were some cracks already there - probably some big ones, which is how he got up in the first place, but it seems to me that there are very bitter divisions now. That's lead to those outrageous scenes of mobs storming state houses of parliament armed to the gills with assault weapons.

Think it might be a while before dissatisfaction with our Govt comes to that.