Peak Oil

I have no doubt that we are going to face some very tough times with fossil fuel and climate change. But don’t worry too much because the bird flu will reduce the impact of both of these. :D

It was summed up very well by a statement I read that said, “Global Economy is the problem and not the solution.”

It is not worth worrying too much about things that haven’t happened yet and our economies would collapse if we over reacted now. It will happen but it will be the commercial sector that will trigger change – not us. When they no longer have a market because the commodity is priced too high then governments will react and investment will flow to alternatives. We are all in the same boat and there is little we can do but have faith that there will be a solution.

There are groups thinking and working towards solutions. Transport is a huge problem and yet it is very inefficient. Think of how many deliveries are made to your local shopping centre each day. Also think of the number of vehicles you see that only have the driver behind the wheel - I am guilty too. Just two examples of how energy is taken for granted.

At the moment I see Nuclear Fusion as the energy source of the future. It still hasn’t been perfected yet but it generates less radiation than Nuclear Fission so it should be safer to use. I believe France is about to build a plant. There is potential for Nuclear Fusion to provide all our energy needs because we know how to store energy and alternatives fuels such as hydrogen can be produced at economic levels. Ten years ago I would have been strongly opposed to Nuclear energy but I think it is our shining light and safest energy source for the future. You might question safest energy source but I compare using fossil fuels to be like the effects of smoking and Nuclear to be like getting hit by a truck.

Just a biit of a rant and don't take it too seriously.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grunt

This will happen, it really is just a case of when. If optimists say 30 years before we run out, the pessimists say 2 - 3 years before the panic sets in and we have an economic meltdown. The truth is probably in between but within your lifetime.

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Buy the stock, guys:

Woodside
BHP
and, if Grunts correct about the Uranium, ERA hoping they get the Indigene's approval for the other sites.

Grunt, just a small issue. You say there's not enough Uranium. Maybe true, on a global scale, but we've got enough for ourselves. Problem is we'd probably have to fight the other bastards to stop them taking it.

Addit re nuclear safety: More coal miners die in China each year than have ever died from Nuclear accidents.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Grunt

This will happen, it really is just a case of when. If optimists say 30 years before we run out, the pessimists say 2 - 3 years before the panic sets in and we have an economic meltdown. The truth is probably in between but within your lifetime.

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O.K, say I accept the timeline. Apart from panicking, what can I do about it?

I guess I could buy a few acres and learn to grow vegies but apart from that, I'm stuffed.

I'm not dissing it, I know its a very real problem, but there is also an element of Chicken Little to it too for mine.

Perhaps it will just accelerate the move to the hydrogen economy?

I would not dismiss alternative energy resourses without considering the amount of R&D spending, or lack thereof, and the consequences of that.

Also, another question is: will the management of companies like BHP and Woodside be sitting on their hands saying "oh well, a few more years and we are all out of job".

Solar panels (and all alternative fuels) now are, to use an analogy, at the stage the Wright brothers plane was with 15 years R&D effort. Eventually the technology got to the Moon and Mars, and gave us the Airbus. The R&D $ won't be spent till things go a little further down the supply crisis road. I think it is a consequence of well informed investors making decisions based on more information we have available to us, as well as an equal part of avoidance of the issue.

I do think the large companies with heavy investments in the hydrocarbon industry will eventually move into other forms of energy supply, however I'd expect they will do it in a manner that ensures maximum returns on current investment.

I think that the stage we are at now is best demonstrated by Tenix buying the resources of Environmental Solutions International: ESI ran the Subiaco (WA) Sewage Farm and turned the poo supply into electricity to run the plant and to sell back into the electricity grid. Other outputs included CO2 and water. A great idea that got nowhere commercially due to a lot of reasons, including the economics of dumping sewage into the sea. Now one of the larger Aust companies holds the idea, and will be looking to protect the concept and hang onto it until it becomes economical to use. http://www.tenix.com/News2.asp?ID=147
Would Tenix (who I though was a Defence Industry sector company)buying this, and moving into Powerco Energy Services http://www.tenix.com/News2.asp?ID=148 be an example of the corporate world gearing up of the supply crisis?

An idea before its time can also go nowhere fast.