Future of the Australian Electricity Market

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Originally Posted by ian

if it's being used to commute to work or go to the shops, the roof of the employment location or the your shopping centre and it's associated car park is not large enough to supply the power the office or shops need for lighting, cooling, etc., PLUS also charge an electric vehicle.

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There's plenty of spare power around doing the day, with the 20,000 houses fitted with solar surrounding a shopping centre or any other workplace easily producing on average about 10kW of excess power. The issue is distribution - the shopping centre will need to be able to handle the power requirements . Of course this is not going to happen overnight - Initially I would expect charging stations to be available to senior management, then maybe loyalty customers. Eventually charging infrastructure will just become part of the initial build of any premises.

I agree with you about the issue of recharging the vehicles associated with the large numbers of appartments and dwellings with vehicles parked on streets etc.
Interestingly Europe is much more of this kind of society than Australia (especially western Australia) but this issue does not seem to have held back EV uptake and they are miles or kilometres ahead of us on that score..
Shell is getting in on this with smart street lamppost charging systems, see ubitricity: public EV lamp post charge points for everyone.
This is only just getting started eg First installation of ubitricity EV lamp post charge points in Dublin
Once again its not going to happen overnight :)

Why does a BEV need charging every day, we don't put petrol in our ICE cars every day. In my case I fill my car about once a month but that is not normal but if I was working I would put petrol in every 10 days or so. Frequency of charging is dependent on the range of a charge and even the shortest range BEV will last more than a day unless the commute is longer than normal. I can think of one where a lot of people travel long distances as a normal commute and that is Wollongong to Sydney which would be exceptionally hard on a BEV due to the climb out of Wollongong. Some BEV's would simply not have the range to do that return trip every day, the new Mazda being one. It is all horses for courses and no single answer suits all. As for fuel cells that is not going to happen in the first generation of vehicles that replace the ICE fleet no matter what Toyota would like. It is staggering how far the Japanese have lagged behind the Europeans in planning the move to BEV's.

VW plans to spend 89 Billion on the move to BEV's. VW Will Build More EVs to Beat Tesla in Europe (autoweek.com)

Compared to the introduction of ICE vehicles we are around 1910 when service stations did not exist as we know them today and the range of the car was limited to the amount of fuel that could be carried.

I was speaking with a guy from the US and they are having issues getting enough power into the Condos to charge EV’s.The tenants are happy to pay their end but the capacity is not in the street
The network is just not designed to accommodate the additional loads, I assume we will have similar issues

All these power arguments remind me of
- there has to be a man walking in front of and carrying a flag of every motor vehicle
- the noise will frighten the horses
- there won't be enough rubber for the tyres.
- there won't be enough oil/petrol for the fuel
- a steam ship cannot carry enough coal to cross the Atlantic.
- heavier than air flying appliances? - Not a chance!
- Iron ships - HA!

Instead of just coming up with excuses/barriers - how about directing some energy to solutions?

Bob it is not a criticism I am just pointing out the reality of the situation. It will be a big project and expensive so we need to know that this is the new technology in the longer term before we get too far down the track.

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Originally Posted by Beardy

Bob it is not a criticism I am just pointing out the reality of the situation. It will be a big project and expensive so we need to know that this is the new technology in the longer term before we get too far down the track.

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Sure - I appreciate there will be (many) problems but we are so far back in the pack we can learn a lot from others, like Norway

An interesting read is the lengthy Wikipedia entry for plug-in EVs in Norway
Plug-in electric vehicles in Norway - Wikipedia

There's a lot in there about "incentives" and "charging patterns" and how they change as the fleet size increases.

The BIG difference for mainland Oz is they're able to use all Hydro power at night to recharge so we're going to have to rely on some other form of storage. Tassie should be OK.

There's loads of "low hanging fruit vehicles" that can get on the bandwagon early (city delivery fleets etc) unfortunately vehicle owners in (old) apartments are probably going to be at the end of the queue.

https://youtu.be/-MJfjrgEq34

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

https://youtu.be/-MJfjrgEq34

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Funny -- somewhat

I've mentioned before that I currently live in Canada.
My part of Canada gets a little bit cold -- like several consecutive days where the maximum doesn't get above -30 deg C. The month of February, in particular, can be brutal. Don't ask.

When I last looked into getting a Tesla EV, my questions to the sales person revolved around the Tesla's range when the battery is very cold. When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition. My options were:
1) to leave with a full charge and allow 30 mins to top up the charge at the halfway point (after 90 km), or
2) to put a Honda genset in the boot so I could guarantee that the journey could be completed without running out of juice 5 km short of my home.

In the end, given my then driving requirements, an internal combustion engine was the better option.

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Originally Posted by ian

When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition.

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Wouldn't the battery warm up when you start using it, restoring the range.

What do you make of this, is it just propaganda?

The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'

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Originally Posted by Beardy

What do you make of this, is it just propaganda?

The end of coal is coming 3 times faster than expected. Governments must accept it and urgently support a 'just transition'

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Beardy

That statement came from AEMO and in fact I posted it back in post #214 as I thought it significant that the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that governs electricity generation on the eastern seaboard should make such a prediction. While I don't know if it will eventuate, I don't believe it is propaganda.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by Bohdan

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Originally Posted by ian

When a Tesla's battery gets very cold, the vehicle's range drops so far that a 180 km return journey -- 90km each way -- became an iffy proposition.

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Wouldn't the battery warm up when you start using it, restoring the range.

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I don't really know, but EV range performance has something to do with temperature of the environment -- the Tesla salesperson knew that at -30 C, driving at freeway speeds, guaranteeing the Tesla could get 180 km of range (equivalent to 110 miles) was iffy. I believe that when I was asking in late 2017, the Tesla's battery was fitted with a thermal management system,

quoting from Lithium-Ion Batteries Deconstructed: Why They are Terrible in the Cold - autoevolution

In low temperatures [below 0C], performance drops significantly because the chemical reaction is simply slowed down, but only when it comes to discharging the battery. Li-ion batteries can actually power an EV at - 40 degrees Celsius (- 40 Fahrenheit), albeit with a reduced discharge rate and only if they are fitted with thermal management systems, but there is simply no way you will be able to charge them at those temperatures because they simply slow down too much. (my emphasis)

And from BU-502: Discharging at High and Low Temperatures - Battery University

Attachment 505032

<figcaption style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: italic; font-size: 12px; margin: 15px 0px text-align: center; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(246, 246, 246);">

Figure 1: Discharge voltage of an 18650 Li-ion cell at 3A and various temperatures [1]
Cell type: Panasonic NRC18650PD, 2.8Ah nominal, LiNiCoAlO2 (NCA

</figcaption>

my best guess is that the Tesla salesperson was extrapolating the potential range from the Panasonic -20 deg C data.


and for those who would like to read more
An Experimental Study of a Lithium Ion Cell Operation at Low Temperature Conditions - ScienceDirect

Good stuff.

I'd imagine the same goes for here in Oz where the temps can get pretty damn hot.

Hot batteries seem like a VERY bad idea! :)

My understanding is that one of the limitations of Lithium Ion batteries is their propensity for catching fire if they are charged too rapidly. I also believe that this is particularly pertinent during the last stage of charging and is why many of the charging rates quoted go to only 80%. The last part has to be performed more gently: You don't want to melt the Tesla.

Regards
Paul

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Originally Posted by woodPixel

Good stuff.

I'd imagine the same goes for here in Oz where the temps can get pretty damn hot.

Hot batteries seem like a VERY bad idea! :)

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That is the downfall of the Nissan Leaf as it does not have active cooling in the battery packs.

I see no one has offered an explanation as to why an electric car has to be charged every day for the average commute, I guess the simple answer is it doesn't have to be recharged every night/day and the grid will not be supplying to an electric car every time it is used and thus won't implode at 7pm every night.