beuro of meteorology

[weisyboy]

i am getting sick of the weather beuro being constantly wrong.

when there not rong its because they used some explanation that onone can make any sence of like
"fine with a shouwer or two about tending to rain wiht a posabel afternoon thunderstorm":?:?:?

the only job in the world where you can stuff up every day and still get a bonus at teh end of the year.:no:

surly im not teh only one.

[astrid]

You try compressing a 1500 word meterology report down to 2 sentences:D

[Buzzer]

Me too.
I make a living making hay/fodder.
It seems to me the beuro are covering there butts just in case something might happen.
Ever since the severe storm at 'The Gap' in Brisbane where they were criticised for not forewarning, I have found they seem to follow 'computer models'.

[Lignin]

It's not an exact science.
Nothing is in Nature, so give them a break.They get it right fairly often, and we only notice when things go wrong.:doh::doh:

[AlexS]

i am getting sick of the weather beuro being constantly wrong.

when there not rong its because they used some explanation that onone can make any sence of like
"fine with a shouwer or two about tending to rain wiht a posabel afternoon thunderstorm":?:?:?

the only job in the world where you can stuff up every day and still get a bonus at teh end of the year.:no:

surly im not teh only one.
I was a professional user of the BoM for many years - I relied on their long- and short-term forcasts to do my work, and certainly didn't find them to be 'constantly wrong'. What's wrong with "fine with a shouwer or two about tending to rain wiht a posabel afternoon thunderstorm" apart from the spelling? I think you'll find that it would read "Mostly fine...", but most people understand the meaning of the terms 'fine', 'shower', & 'thunderstorm'. If you don't, they are defined on the BoM website and other places if you care to go looking. I suppose you'd like them to put out a more precise report, along the lines of 'At Carl's place, it will be fine until 11.03am, when there will be 4.3mm of rain. The sun will come out again at 11.17am, but there will be another 2.8mm between 11.45am and 11.59am. A thunderstorm cell will form over Carl's next door neighbour's place at 3.27pm and move over Carl's place at 3.36, dumping 47.2mm on him in 10 minutes, just as he's about to fire up his mill.
As far as getting a bonus at the end of the year, I can assure you that they don't. They are on a salary, often a pretty ordinary one considering their qualifications. Gratuitous shots like that don't do your argument any good at all.


You try compressing a 1500 word meterology report down to 2 sentences:D
Persactly. If you want them, the longer forecasts are available on the bureau's website. You can also get the synoptic charts (see, they've done some of the work for you already) and do your own forecasts if you reckon you can do a better job.


Me too.
I make a living making hay/fodder.
It seems to me the beuro are covering there butts just in case something might happen.
Ever since the severe storm at 'The Gap' in Brisbane where they were criticised for not forewarning, I have found they seem to follow 'computer models'.
Sure they use computer models. They're processing information coming in from thousands of weather and river stations in Australia, plus overseas and at sea. The bloke who used to do it with an abacus and slate retired last year.

[weisyboy]

i dont expect the to be exact but i would like to be able to look at theer site with some confidence. why dont tehy do like they do in america and say the is a 50% chance of rain or a 10 % changce of rain.

my work depends on the weather if i took notice of teh beauro i would spend a lot of nice fine days at home.

[masoth]

Well said, AlexS. I've tried forecasting over many years and claim greater accuracy the the BoM. I have a mini weather station and the benefit of local knowledge (there is a local BoM station). Accuracy has improved but MANY factors are considered and local area forecasts are what is most difficult. Years ago only State-wide forecasts (the size of Victoria) were published.

soth

[silentC]

It could be a 99% chance of rain and still not rain, don't you get that? Probability is not certainty. I think it's pretty amusing when people get upset about the weather forecast being wrong. It's as if you think they just have to look at a few readings and know what's going to happen in the next 24 hours. At best weather forecasting is an educated guess. The only thing they know for sure is what is happening right now and what happened yesterday.

Learn how to read the radar images, that might help a bit in the short term. My wife uses it all the time to work out if there's rain coming so she can ring me to bring in the washing.

[weisyboy]

thats what i do i lok at teh radar etc of a morning.

they dont know whats happening now. we can have a clear blue sky all day and tehy will still say rain clearign in the afternoon. when tehre was no rain to begin with.

[toolbagsPLUS]

the only job in the world where you can stuff up every day and still get a bonus at teh end of the year.:no:

surly im not teh only one.

weisyboy I'm with you 100% and please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past? If you where there you would know and if you weren't there's nothing you can do about it anyway.

Make it like other jobs where you get paid on performance and take responsibility for getting it wrong. Here's a thought divert all the money spent on expensive computers and equipment into something worth while and encourage people to look out of their windows in the morning.

By the way it's raining on the Coast:roll: (You can have that one for free:U)


Cheers

Steve

[silentC]

My concreter mate uses the radar too. His job relies very heavily on knowing if it will rain or not. He uses the radar and his own weather sense and he's usually pretty good - if he thinks it wont rain it doesn't, sometimes it doesn't rain when he thinks it will but he errs on the side of caution.

I think you are right, they don't know. It's just too big a job to examine all of the factors and be able to predict local weather - it's not possible. I can be standing in my front yard with rain falling on my head and see blue sky all around. It happens here a lot. I'm about half a click from town and it can be pissing down there and sunny here. How can they possibly predict that? The best they can say is possible showers.

I think the point is you shouldn't rely on them because there's not really much they can do. Even if you threw bucket loads of money at them. It's still only ever going to be a guess.

[silentC]

please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past?
Probably the same reason my mum and dad have got a rain gauge. Plus they can look at the weather on TV at night and say "bugger me, it was hot in Dubbo today, wasn't it?"

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow? :)

[weisyboy]

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow?
it would make things easyer.

[AlexS]

why dont tehy do like they do in america and say the is a 50% chance of rain or a 10 % changce of rain.

That I don't know. They do in ACT, but nowhere else in Australia AFIK. It makes sense, but it's pretty difficult to put a percentage on a forecast. For instance, it might probably rain, but that probablility may be somewhere between 51% and 99%.

As SilentC says, the statistics help you to make a decision, but they don't guarantee anything.

A bit like people talking about a 1 in 100 year storm. People assume that means there won't be another storm like it for 100 years. What it means is that the average recurrence interval for a storm of that duration and intensity over that area at that place is 100 years. You may have another next year or not for 300 years.

[AlexS]

... and please tell me the reason or benefit of telling us what the weather was in the day just past? If you where there you would know and if you weren't there's nothing you can do about it anyway.


So you have some data (as opposed to guesswork) to base your own forecast on.:rolleyes:

[toolbagsPLUS]

Why do they tell us what happened today on the news? I suppose you think they should be telling us what will happen tomorrow? :)

As a matter of fact if it they could be more accurate that the weather then yes that would be helpful.

But there aren't that many clairvoyants out that that get paid as much as news readers so sadly I don't think it will happen,:no: but a pleasant thought to ponder anyway.:2tsup::U


Cheers


Steve

[silentC]

I read a book once that started out being about weather forecasting but ended up being about something called Chaos Theory. The famous image from that was a butterfly flapping it's wings in Brazil and causing a tornado in Texas. This came from the idea that when you are looking at something as complex as the weather, the tiniest change in an input to the system can cause huge differences in the outcome. If the temperature varies by a fraction of a degree the day before, it can make all the difference to whether it ultimately rains or not. How can anyone make reliable predictions in a system like that? There are too many variables that have too big an affect on the result.

[weisyboy]

tehy why wast the time and money trying?

[AlexS]

tehy why wast the time and money trying?

Because most of the time, they get it right. They may not get it exactly right for your little patch of dirt, but over larger areas they get it right most of the time.
Presumably you've kept the statistics of how well they do, or are you basing your statements on your gut feeling, the same way you'd like to have the weather forecasts done?

[silentC]

I suppose it's better than nothing. It's probably more important for big events like cyclones. They can predict them reasonably well and they can track them and project what areas might get hit. It might still miss them but at least people have warning. If you had to wait for the wind to pick up before battening down the hatches, you'd be in trouble. Yes I know they get those wrong too.

[Big Shed]

Because most of the time, they get it right. They may not get it exactly right for your little patch of dirt, but over larger areas they get it right most of the time.
Presumably you've kept the statistics of how well they do, or are you basing your statements on your gut feeling, the same way you'd like to have the weather forecasts done?

We used to get a 4 day forecast, and each day that would change so that when day 4 became tomorrow it had no similarity to what was forecast for that day 3 days ago.

Now we get a 7 day forecast, same thing happens.

Why give out these forecasts knowing full well that the accuracy is questionable at best?

The other thing that amuses me is that people here are saying "watch the radar". Even that is wildly inaccurate at times. The number of times I look at it and it tells me it is raining where I am, and there is nothing but blue skies for miles around. The reverse also happens, it is raining heavily where I am but the radar tells me there is no rain for a radius of at least 100km.

[silentC]

The radar wont show local showers but it will show larger storms. Depends on where you are in relation to it I think - we are off the Canberra radar and it is a bit patchy by the time it gets over here to the coast. There is a permanent blind spot around Batemans Bay. But usually if it shows rain, then rain will come. It might not rain on my house, but it will rain somewhere around here.

Being a forecaster in Victoria should be easy anyway: today it will be fine/raining/windy/stinking hot.

The best thing for you to do is either stay in your big shed or take an umbrella with you wherever you go.

[BobL]

All the whingers here appear to be suffering from a well known human idosyncranism of "when others get it right we taken no notice, when others get it wrong they we dump on them from a great height". I forget the stats but on average the next day forecasts have improved very significantly over the last few decades. 4 day forecasts are now as accurate as next day forecasts were 50 years ago and 7 day forecasts are as accurate as 4 day forecasts were 20 years ago.

Of course their long range accuracy is questionable, Australia is a big country, but some information is still better than no information. You also get this information essential for free. Oil and gas platform people pay millions of $/year for specific location long range forecasts to protect their installations from damage. They would not do this unless there was some benefit in doing so.

[Big Shed]

You're probably right Bob, except for one thing.............do we really get this information for "free". Was under the impression that our, yours and mine, taxes paid for this service, but I could be wrong.

[silentC]

Anyone in Brisbane? Is it raining there now?

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar.jsp?lt=wzstate&lc=nsw&ane=1&anf=1&and=1&ana=7&anb=333&anc=3&lya=1&lyk=1&lye=1&lyf=1

[masoth]

BoM radar is not showing the present situation. It is refleced 'sound' and about 30 minutes behind. Thick smoke and dust can fool the radar into showing-up like rain - radar is just one tool used to assist the operator distinguish between weather features.

soth

[weisyboy]

ts been raining here all morning started here about midnight. the rain tehy have been forcating all week has finaly arived.:2tsup:

[silentC]

Better late than never :)

[petersemple]

Over time too I have noticed that Brisbane is a large area (obvious point really). What I mean is that there have been heaps of times when the Bureau have predicted rain, and we have had a bright sunny day all day. Reality is that the forecast was correct, and Brisbane got rain (sometimes quite a lot of rain) but it was nowhere near the part of Brissie I was in. If I had just looked out the window I would have said the forecast was very poor, but in reality it was correct.

Peter

[rotten_66]

Perhaps we should all get the nut forecaster.

Baseplate with a piece of dowel sticking up at about 45 degrees angle and say 10-15cm long and a piece of string hanging down and a nut, usually it is a macadamia, suspended in mid air on a piece of string

If its moving - windy
If its not - calm
If its at right angle to the ground - really windy
If its wet - raining
If its bright - sunny
If its hot - Hot

If you cant see it - foggy/night/some swine stole it

:q:q:q

[Rossluck]

BoM radar is not showing the present situation. It is refleced 'sound' and about 30 minutes behind.

soth

Are you sure about that? I've often slipped outside when the radar was showing rain about to touch our area, and felt the first few drops. I've found them to be pretty accurate and we do rely on them (we have two options here, Stapylton and Marburg) to warn us about storms.

I agree with Carl to an extent, but mainly I agree with Silent. It is a strange thing here in Brisbane that the people at the BOM are strong and assertive with their predictions. Perhaps they should deliver their predictions with more of a scientific tone: "Our stats and computer models suggest a 78% chance of rain tomorrow", rather than the strong: "rain in the morning, sometimes heavy, reducing to showers by the afternoon". Because when you have blue sky all day after forecasts like the latter one, you can't help but feel as Carl does.

[masoth]

Yes, I'm sure the radar is a reflection of rain that has fallen .lightening strike, etc., - your experience of feeling some precipitation may not register on the radar, and may only show as a trace, or as nil rainfall.
Also, the information supplied to radio/TV broardcasters, mostly from a private company, is edited to satisfy time constraints, etc. ABC radio, here in Victoria, cross live to the BoM and talk for a few minutes - the respondent is rarely as positive as the unqualified 'readers' who deliver what we hear, and is described as "the forecast"

soth.

ps: for educational purposes, if interested, see:
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/?u=7746

[44Ronin]

I'm sorry but it's been flooding up your side of australia for WEEKS - now it is flooding in north coast NSW. That should give you an indication as to the weather.

[joe greiner]

The past is prologue; no more, no less. If you think the forecasts are worthless, try ignoring them for a while, and rely on your own PERFECT clairvoyance. I predict a 50% chance you won't even see this.

Cheers,
Joe

[damian]

Couple of things.

Meteorology came about for mariners. It grew to include land weather forcasts and what appears on the news is a reaction to public wanting a forcast. The important work gets done for mariners and aircraft, because it REALLY matters for them.

Meteorologists are trained to a basic level by the BOM, in canberra. If you look at the papers they advertise about twice a year. You have to move to canberra to some period to do the course. Then the wages suck. As you get better at it your moved to the aircraft/sea analysis, and if you get noticed you get poached to one of the private firms that pay a lot better.

If you really want to do your own predictions buy a barometer and learn how to use it. They are by far and away the most important tool for local weather forcasting. I ran the medium pressure lab at the national measurement laboratory for about 3 years. It was then my interest in meteorology really got going, and it was amazing how much you can tell from a barometric chart or a handy barometer about what will happen in the next 24 hours etc...

The 6:00 news is a joke from start to finish, and the weather report is no exception.

[silentC]

Meteorology came about for mariners. It grew to include land weather forcasts ...
Hmmm, not disputing the importance of shipping, but, although it's only Wikipedia, there seems little in this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_meteorology) to support that claim.

[damian]

Your right, I forgot about the early agricultural uses. I was thinking of the formal systematic collection of data and short term predictions that arose in europe and britain in particular. Before that it was a bit hotch potch. The admiralty did a lot of work that we benifit from today, standard time and latitude/longitude are well known, but they sponsored a lot of important work.

The wiki article doesn't really discuss the ancient work done by the egyptians and others, but I suppose there are reasons for that. When does haphazard observation become meteorology ? Hm.

[silentC]

I suppose it's no different to the majority of sciences that have sprung up over the centuries and become formalised in the last couple of centuries. They all had to start somewhere and the roots would probably be unrecognisable by today's standards.

But I guess your point was that the serious meteorological science is not necessarily reserved for the TV weather segment. I imagine serious astrologers would make the same point about the weekly horoscope :D

[damian]

serious astrologers ? You mean there are some that take themselves seriously ? :D

[RETIRED]

Sometimes I think they are one and the same.:D

[AlexS]

Damian & SilentC are both spot on regarding the history pf meteorology. Interestingly, about 30 years ago one of the European Met or scientific agencies created daily synoptic charts for most of the northern hemisphere for about the last 200 years, based on ships logs and terrestrial observations.

If you'd like to learn a bit more about meteorology, subjects 8004R & 8004S in this course (http://www.oten.edu.au/otenweb/cils/3573CIL.pdf) are a good start. The teacher's a bit of a !@#$% though.:D

[Arthur Dyason]

Damian

your right about the TV weather being a joke.

I worked at the European Centre for Midrange Weather Forcastes for 14 years as part of the team running the super computers doing the calculations. I will scan some of the pictues when we get full power back on. Being in the Bellingen area we have just had the worst flood in living memory and are only on genset power.

After a long night shift you would be watching the morning news and weather forcast and asking if they had actually looked out the window.

The largest clients of the centre was the US and european Navy's with air services close behind.

The Navy interest these days is in wave predictions which is caused and also helps change the weather.

[AlexS]

Being in the Bellingen area we have just had the worst flood in living memory and are only on genset power.

Back when I first started working in this field, Dorrigo was always quoted as having the most intense 24 hr rainfall recorded in Australia (1955, I think). Every so often, somewhere else, usually in Nth Qld, would take the record, but somewhere in the Dorrigo area would always get it back.

[DJ’s Timber]

The teacher's a bit of a !@#$% though.:D

He wouldn't be a Dehydrated Hydrographer by chance would he :roll: :q

[AlexS]

He wouldn't be a Dehydrated Hydrographer by chance would he :roll: :q:wink:

[damian]

My ladyfriend's parents moved to dorrigo last year, so we spent 7 days there over christmas. Rained every day, several times a day.

I am sure it has it's appeal, but it woudn't be my choice.

[silentC]

Dorrigo is near the headwaters of the Nymboida River, which is well known as a white water rafting destination. So high rainfall is good, although you don't want it flooding because then it gets dangerous. A guide was telling me they lost 2 or 3 people in one year back in the early 90's.

[mic-d]

That I don't know. They do in ACT, but nowhere else in Australia AFIK. It makes sense, but it's pretty difficult to put a percentage on a forecast. For instance, it might probably rain, but that probablility may be somewhere between 51% and 99%.

As SilentC says, the statistics help you to make a decision, but they don't guarantee anything.

A bit like people talking about a 1 in 100 year storm. People assume that means there won't be another storm like it for 100 years. What it means is that the average recurrence interval for a storm of that duration and intensity over that area at that place is 100 years. You may have another next year or not for 300 years.
If you go to this heading in BOM, and click the link:

Flood Warnings, Rainfall and River Information


Queensland Flood Warning Centre (http://www.bom.gov.au/hydro/flood/qld/)


You can then click on
Forecast Rainfall (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp)

It will bring up an interactive map which displays forecast rainfall, and also CHANCE OF RAINFALL. SWMBO has found it quite accurate and useful.


BoM radar is not showing the present situation. It is refleced 'sound' and about 30 minutes behind. Thick smoke and dust can fool the radar into showing-up like rain - radar is just one tool used to assist the operator distinguish between weather features.

soth

First part is absolutely untrue sorry. The radar radiation travels at the speed of light, the images are updated every 6minutes on the BOM site, so the furthest behind the data will be, from realtime is 6 minutes. Looping the images is useful to determine the speed and direction, say, a storm is moving, we use it quite a bit. You can see the time stamps on the images.

CHeers
Michael

[AlexS]

Thanks Michael, I wasn't aware that those images werey available.