Recession - Where Is It?

[Metal Head]

Hi,

I just returned from the barbers which I feel is a place one can get a feel on certain things going on in the economy and alike. Given the people who were talking there and that of friends and family no one seems to be affected directly by this so called recession. The barber said he hasn't be affected by any "downturn" neither had any of the tradespeople in his shop:?. None of the 30 business in the immediate area have reported having problems either - so is this just government propaganda again, or the work of the media?

No I'm no hermit, I live in the real world and read the papers (watch TV) like nearly everyone else. No I don't live in a affluent neighbourhood aka Toorak Camberwell etc either so where are all these people struggling? I see people living on the streets, druggies getting their rocks just as they have for decades. Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MH

[jerryc]

Metal Head,

I have studied Economics and Economic History and put simply the financial world is a wonderful house of cards built on credit and confidence.
to over simplify explanation of a complex issue, What has happened is that confidence has collapsed and so credit is tighter. Money remains but people keep it to themselves, as do banks and countries. The effects of a recession/ depression vary with areas and countries. If you lived in a community that relied on mining for example as do many in West Oz or had a job in the financial world of Wall Street then this recession would be very real, many have been put out of work or are on short hours. Seems that at present the area you inhabit is shielded. I have a friend who is an architect in Melbourne and he tells me he has had no inquiries about new work for over a month. He is living on present contracts and is worried.

What this and other governments are doing is to try to keep money on the move. The Great Depression of the 1930's haunts history and governments don't want such a collapse again. The Great Depression had a hand in bringing Hitler to power.

Let's hope things stay rosy for you and your area.

Jerry

[Lignin]

Would like to agree with the habitues of your barber, but, as a self funded retiree,completely dependant on my investments, I have lost over THIRTY PERCENT of their value in about eight months.:((
I console myself with the knowledge that, given enough time,things will get better, and will probably get back to where they were before the ???? fell out of everything.:)
My pension is generated from dividends earned from my investments, and, unless you have had your head buried deeply in the sand, you must be aware that company profits and therefore dividends, have copped a belting.I'm bloody worried!!!:oo:
Krudd's "generousity" means exactly Sweet Fanny Adams to me.
I have been prudent,saved,paid off everything. and even insulated my house.I no longer earn an income, so even the tax relief is worthless to me, and to thousands like me.
I paid taxes for over 40 years,educated myself and did pretty well, but, at 66 years, I am not eligible for a Government pension because I have too many assets.:((:((:((!!
I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.
It's fairly true that the Yanks have sneezed, and the rest of us poor bastards have caught a cold!! :(:(

[givupcont]

Hi,

I just returned from the barbers which I feel is a place one can get a feel on certain things going on in the economy and alike. Given the people who were talking there and that of friends and family no one seems to be affected directly by this so called recession. The barber said he hasn't be affected by any "downturn" neither had any of the tradespeople in his shop:?. None of the 30 business in the immediate area have reported having problems either - so is this just government propaganda again, or the work of the media?

No I'm no hermit, I live in the real world and read the papers (watch TV) like nearly everyone else. No I don't live in a affluent neighbourhood aka Toorak Camberwell etc either so where are all these people struggling? I see people living on the streets, druggies getting their rocks just as they have for decades. Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MHI'm with you, I've been in recession my whole life and cannot see the difference eccept for bosses trying to pay employers less

[Perkz]

Would like to agree with the habitues of your barber, but, as a self funded retiree,completely dependant on my investments, I have lost over THIRTY PERCENT of their value in about eight months.:((
I console myself with the knowledge that, given enough time,things will get better, and will probably get back to where they were before the ???? fell out of everything.:)
My pension is generated from dividends earned from my investments, and, unless you have had your head buried deeply in the sand, you must be aware that company profits and therefore dividends, have copped a belting.I'm bloody worried!!!:oo:
Krudd's "generousity" means exactly Sweet Fanny Adams to me.
I have been prudent,saved,paid off everything. and even insulated my house.I no longer earn an income, so even the tax relief is worthless to me, and to thousands like me.
I paid taxes for over 40 years,educated myself and did pretty well, but, at 66 years, I am not eligible for a Government pension because I have too many assets.:((:((:((!!
I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.
It's fairly true that the Yanks have sneezed, and the rest of us poor bastards have caught a cold!! :(:(


I think all of us who are approaching or in retirement share your sentiment ( and loss!)
It makes me more than a little angry that we have all done what the Govt asked a decade or so ago and moved to self fund our retirement and most of us have done that in a responsible and beneficial manner only to have a large part of it removed in a way that is beyond our control.

I get even angrier with all the experts coming out of the wood work who have "seen it coming". If they saw it ( whatever IT is) coming then why didnt the highly paid professionals in Govts see it and PREVENT it happening??

The only thing that I have seen is the failure of the secondary mortgage market in the US that can be considered a tangible thing that has happened. Why that should cause all the doom and gloom is beyond me.

I believe that the doom and gloom merchants including our very "professional" media have been very irresponsible. I believe that KRudd and W Swann have been naieve and have not got a clue how to manage this situation and have done nothing but add to the perceptions. Simply handing out money that is going to be stuffed down the throats of pokies is not how to generate sustained economic stability and growth.

Thank god Mr Howard and Mr Costello managed to repay the old labour debts and put a great deal of money in the "bank" ...The shame of it is that Mr Rudds inexperienced financial incompetence has now overdrawn the bank account in a little over 12 months !!

The way to overcome this self fulfilling prophecy is to stop all the doom and gloom talk and get people talking positively again. It is quite amzing ( and historiclly proven) that we all believe what we are told by the media and politicians..god help us..

A lot more of us need to get angry and tell them we dont believe and ask for proof and details..there has been a lot of talk but not a lot of fact :rolleyes::NZ3:

[Cruzi]

Technically a ressesion is one Quarter of negative growth, a depression is more than one quarter.
It is happening CES are getting notices every day about companies putting off workers, everyday there is more and more companies going under.
Less people employed = less people spending = less people employed.

Here is a situation that partisan politics do not work, everyone in every party should be looking for a way of immunising Australia from the golbal crisis, not point scoring or laboured rhetoric.



The Great Depression had a hand in bringing Hitler to power.
No, the War Repatriations that Germany had been paying since 1918 had a lot more to do with it.
He promised a way out from under the crippling debts and the people bought it.

[Ben from Vic.]

My sister and hubby own a mobile phone shop and have a few corporate contracts, one of which is with a forklift company that supplies forklifts to a mining company. The mining slow down has resulted in the forklift company now having 1500 forlifts no longer required by the mine. Obviously with flow on affects in mobile phones etc.

I'm doing my best to keep tool shops afloat.:rolleyes:

Ben.

[weisyboy]

i think we have been talked into a recesion.

if the media didnt mention it then people would keep spendign as normal and business would not see a reduction in sales and life would go on as usual.

if more things were made in australia tehn there woul dbe a lot more industry and it would give jobs to a lot more people.

even now if teh government put a restriction on what could be imported quantity mainly thewn there would be a lot of jobs first in buildign up the diferent industries then working in them.

i would not mind paying a little more for quality australian goods than teh cheep chineese crap we get at present.

[jerryc]

Cruzi,

I was oversimplifying an explanation on recession. The remark on Hitler was shallow because I wasn't intending to do more than show how governments fear unrest. I said it had a hand in the rise, not that it was the prime cause.I am well aware of the problems of Germany during the Weimar Republic, what generated those problems and it's ramifications that allowed the rise of Nazi Germany. However a short answer in a forum usually precludes deep analytical answers.


As to the rest of your argument, I would not fault it.

Jerry

[Cruzi]

Sorry JerryC, my fault, I forget that we do need to condense from time to time.

Having said that it's Carl's turn now :doh:


even now if teh government put a restriction on what could be imported quantity mainly thewn there would be a lot of jobs first in buildign up the diferent industries then working in them.
This is a double edged sword, if we restrict imports, the countries we restrict then restrict our exports.
The biggest importers into our country also happen to be our biggest customers, (China, India, Japan, USA), any jobs gained from restricting imports would quickly be offset by jobs lost from exporting industries.

Being talked into recession is not the problem, people spend when they feel secure in their jobs, with so many companies going under (SWMBO informs me they got notices for over 5,000 job losses so far this week), people are unsure about their future, less borrowing, less spending, less jobs, less confidence.

Ben hinted at what happens when a company goes under, the retailers in town get less money, the suppliers get less money, the service industries get less money, people borrow less, everyone has to downsize staff and the cycle continues.

.

[Lignin]

I live in The Hunter, an area heavily dependent on mining.
Today I had reason to travel fairly extensively throughout the area principally populated by those who work in the mines, and, until recently, pretty affluent.
I was startled to see so many late model twin cabs and big 4WDs on the side of the roads with "For Sale" signs on them.The last time I can remember this happenning was during Mr Keating's "Recession We Had to Have"!
We're hurting up here, and it's going to get worse before it gets better.
To those of you who think it is a conspiracy by the bosses to diddle the "workers", wake up to yourselves.It's bloody-well happening, and you'll probably feel it soon enough.:((:((:((

[Waldo]

Are we being conned or taken for a ride?

MH

Whathe? :? You're not serious.

:no: First industry to notice is advertising when clients cut back on budgets, it started back in March of last year, a while before media started reporting it. It's real.

[Steve Fryar]

It is pretty real in the SE of South Aust.too.I'm lucky I work in the oil and gas industry.It is relatively stable but having said that I know of some service companies that are laying off staff.Nine months ago everybody was looking for staff but couldn't get any because of the mining boom.Different now.

[Pheonix]

The top 200 companies in the world have lost 74% of their value, thats not a recession?

[jerryc]

I wondered when party politics would rear it's head.
Lignin and Perkz, I too am a self funded retiree and like you I am hurting. Therefore I paid attention to Turnbull and his opposition statement.

Know what? Not a word about self funded retirees.
Mr Howard and Mr Costello were able to repay the debts because they were fortunate to be in power during a boom period. Copious company tax and advantageous foreign trading makes it easy to be successful when things are going your way.

If you examine the present world financial situation it will be obvious that "handing out money" is not confined to the Austalian Labor Party. Nor is the concept of going into debt. The USA, home of '"free enterprise" has been in debt for many years. Ben Bernanke is busy printing money to the extent that some economists wonder how it will be balanced and what it will do to the value of the dollar in future.
As to handouts feeding the pokies, that is a rather insulting comment to level at the majority of recipients of help.. Just think what the American financial bosses did with the handouts given to them. They sacked staff, whilst still paying the top echelon huge salaries and bonuses. That of course is different. The financial sector has been one big poker machine for several years.

As we discovered, what appeared to be a scam in the American housing market blew up into a world wide disaster. Credit and debt drive finance and is more complex than is possible to explain here. Basically what happened was credit was too easy and many companies borrowed too much. Banks get nervous and call in debt and the house of cards crumbles.

So to fall back on the old easy political arguments and blame a particular party might make you feel better but it is not the full answer.

Jerry

[Lignin]

Jerry,
I did not bring politics into the argument!! I stated two facts:
1; The spending package offered by this government does not benifit me in any way (Nor,I suspect, you):doh:
2, The last time I can remember seeing so many expensive cars for sale on the side of the road was during the "Recession We Had To Have".They were Keatings words, not mine.:~
It just happens that each time, the Labor party has been in power.Had Howard and his mob won the last election, he'd be carrying the can now, and there is no guarantee that he'd be in less of a mess than Krudd and Swine.:?
My Daddy told me never to discuss Politics, Religion or Sex, so no wonder I'm repressed.:(:(

[RETIRED]

Keep it on topic. This is not a slanging match about whether or not which political party did what to whom and when.

[jerryc]

Lignin,

Apologies for mis reading you.

As to that statement "the recession we had to have" it was like so many of Keatings statements. Keating was a rare example of a politician who not only sincerely believed in what he did but spoke TO the public and not DOWN to them. He was keenly aware that, as is common in finance, there are periods of "correction": It was a wry comment that the media, ever hungry to pander to the lowest common denominator was ready to seize on..

Remember this was the period when Keating was "Arrogant" but Kennett was a "Strong Man".

Cynical? Me?

Jerry

[silentC]

Technically a ressesion is one Quarter of negative growth, a depression is more than one quarter.
I think you'll find that technically a recession is TWO consecutive quarters of negative growth. This makes it straight forward to tell whether we're in a recession or not - just look at the GDP for the last three quarters.

There is no technical definition of an economic depression. It is just a deeper recession and is more a reflection of the affects on the population than an economic measure. Let's hope we don't go there.

[Chumley]

Maybe it is the same people (who took us as fools) that told us in the late 90's that the World was doomed with the forthcoming YK2.


Don't underestimate the Y2K issue. Yes there were nutcases who spoke about planes falling out of the sky. But if all those companies hadn't spent all that money getting all those people to rewrite all that programming code you would have seen some nasty situations (think about how eftpos works, or atms, or traffic regulation systems, etc, etc). The fact that there were so few problems just shows the preventative measures were successful.

Now, think about the Y10K problem - much more difficult to solve!

Cheers,
Adam

[silentC]

think about how eftpos works
It just so happens that I was an EFTPOS programmer for one of the big four at the time. Many of the dates used in the system were stored as dd/mm/yy. It was common practice to do something like this:

If yy > 40 then
yyyy = 19yy
else
yyyy = 20yy

The reasoning being that we will all be long gone before that time bomb explodes. Hopefully all those systems will have been replaced long before 2040. :)

[Waldo]

Don't underestimate the Y2K issue. Yes there were nutcases who spoke about planes falling out of the sky. But if all those companies hadn't spent all that money getting all those people to rewrite all that programming code you would have seen some nasty situations (think about how eftpos works, or atms, or traffic regulation systems, etc, etc). The fact that there were so few problems just shows the preventative measures were successful.

Now, think about the Y10K problem - much more difficult to solve!

Cheers,
Adam

So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.

[SPIRIT]

Greed is the cause
here in Australia we have life style we can not support so we have to play in the open market with the world population moving more and more into middle class the effect has to pop its head up more and more .


Or was it all created to take the focus of G/W:U
maybe if we stop spending so much we might just find a balance between life style and the environment

[silentC]

So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.
We had to upgrade the BIOS on many of our older PCs because they did not handle the year 2000. Some of them could not be upgraded and had to be decommissioned. Lots of our software, including in-house and third party developed had to be upgraded to handle a four digit year. Believe me a lot of work had to be done to make sure ATMs didn't shutdown or start spitting out cash all over the footpath on 1st Jan 2000. The fact that nobody noticed means the job was done well, not that there was never a problem.

Ex Y2K officer for On-line Services Group, 1999.

:)

[Bob38S]

So why didn't Macs fall over? No one came into the agency I worked at and rewrote things. Maybe it was someone against PCs? Me thinks it was a load of carp.

Sorry Waldo

Mac had their dates organised from day 1 as dd/mm/yyyy or the Yankee mm/dd/yyyy.


Just to add to the other comments,

I'm also a self funded retiree who was taught by his fairly strict European parents that if you don't have the money then you don't buy it. This of course excluded only 2 items which were a house and a car. These had to be funded by loans which needed 20% deposits in those days - both loans were paid off in short times by making extra interest payments as they became due. So, after doing all of the right things, saving, making frugal expenditures, paying all of the due taxes etc we are now penalised for doing so. If we had blown the lot etc then my previous paid taxes would at least be coming back to me in part.

Not happy Jan, John, Kevin, Peter, Wayne. Malcolm as well as Tom, Dick and Harry. :no:

[Waldo]

Mac had their dates organised from day 1 as dd/mm/yyyy or the Yankee mm/dd/yyyy.

Fair enough, still think it was a load, to a point. Like terrorism, it only makes the security blokes a packet because Chicken Little cried, "The sky is falling"

Your point of only borrowing what you need and saving to buy the rest is very pertinent. Just bought a newish car myself - I paid in cash, that way I know it's mine and I don't owe anyone. Except for bills and a house, I owe no one any money.

The world needs to look towards Japan, okay they're in recession, but, they don't use credit cards and prefer the old bank book. It's about how you live in a capitalist society and best manage your money. :2tsup:

[jerryc]

Just to take us away from computers and back to the core of this discussion. The problem that has generated this recession/ depression, call it what you will, is that banks in most countries were totally deregulated. Thus we reached the absurd situtation that a single dollar when lent did not represent a dollar debt. Debt was sold on and eventurally that one dollar generated thirty dollars debt. Banks are now being forced to reign in that over debt and so credit disappears. Companies work on forward estimates of profit and borrow against it. People were doing the same. It was not uncommon for individuals to buy a property, calculate forward profit and buy another property on credit on the presumption that it would be financed out ot the as yet to be realised profit on the first property. Still with me? It's what happens in a time of unrealistic greed. Alice is in Wonderland .
Debt, properly managed, does have a place in finance. How else would houses and cars be sold? Japan has been in recession now for ten years because there is another factor to consider. If you put your money under the mattress you have effectively removed that money from circulation and from use. Less money circulating equals less things being bought and sold and result stagnation. It's why governments are trying desperatly to force money into circulation at the moment by injecting it into the economy.

Jerry

[Waldo]

But, to give credit to Costello and the banks in Australia we have what is called APRA, wherein which the financial institutions are regulated as to what they can do, and they were directed to keep away from sub-prime lending practices when it was recognised early on by Costello what the ramifications of this could lead to.

This has lead to Australia having 4 of 11 banks in the world with a AA rating. Whatsherface was very proud to announce this the other day, but neglected to give credit where due for the setting up of APRA.

But forcing money by artifical means into the economy isn't keeping us or anyone else going into or coming out of recession, a case very plainly argued on Lateline Business last night by Robert Schiller, and for which reason I'm against Dudd's $48M stimulus.

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/

[Sturdee]

Debt, properly managed, does have a place in finance. How else would houses and cars be sold?
Jerry

Personally I think the debate about whether we are in a recession or depression is intellectual wanking and not really relevant to us. What is relevant is the reality that we are in deep trouble, and if nothing is done to help and stimulate the economy then it will become worse.

Every day we hear about more financial difficulties caused by this lack of confidence and business laying of people. If you lost your job and have no hope of getting another than it is totally irrelevant if its a recession or depression. You already know we've got trouble.

The pity is that the media and politicians won't loose their jobs, for if they were at risk they might get of their high horses and try to fix it.:((

Part of the problem is the reluctance as a country to have debt. This is also ridiculous and has penalised our current generation who have had to pay for capital works that will also benefit generations of people to come. Capital works, being infrastructure will benefit many generation so should in part be paid by them.


Peter.

[silentC]

The problem that has generated this recession/ depression, call it what you will
It's neither because we are not into negative growth yet. The economy is still growing (1.6% last quarter I believe). It is an economic downturn. If we return negative growth this quarter and the next, then we will be in recession.

But as Peter says, it's just intellectual wanking by economists and politicians because it makes no difference to normal people whether it's technically a recession or not if you have lost your job.

[jerryc]

Waldo,

One of the problems of Economics is that it is not an exact science, however much Economist try to say it is. I couldn't raise Schiller's arguement and haven't heard it so cannot comment. However I wil quote Prof Boris Shedvin at his introductory lecture on Economic History at Melbourne.
In essence he said Economists think they are rational beings and their theories are rational. What they do no take into consideration is that people are not rational. A theory may work at one time and not at another, but if it doesn't work, Economists say it's the theory that hasn't worked so we must create a new one.

America decided to follow Milton Friedman the so called Reganomics (which I believe had to be explained to Ronnie with a comic strip) and discard completely government control which was part of Keynsian Economics.

Odd thing is now the "Free Market" has broken down, the American banks and car manufacturers want government assistance. Isn't that government intervention?

The first principal behind cash injections and the fact that they are aimed at the lower socio economic group is that such people have low discretionary spending control. You need new shoes because you only have one pair. A rich man has a wardrobe full. It's the same thinking in funding public works. Infrastructure eventually aids the economy in the short term by creating jobs and in the long term by having a useful assetthat can be used in the future.I would expect dissenters from the idea of "stimulation packages" it is the nature of Economics, , but one Economist does not a solution make. As with any sickness, a second opinion is a safe bet. It would be interesting to hear a discussion between Schiller and Ben Benanke. "Helicopter" Ben who is printing money like it's going out of style is an expert on the Great Depression. He might perhaps differ in his viewpoint from that of Schiller.

Jerry

[.RC.]

Deleted..Apologies to Lignin if I caused any offence, none was intended...
Sorry Lignin...

[.RC.]

What is relevant is the reality that we are in deep trouble, and if nothing is done to help and stimulate the economy then it will become worse.

Peter.

Yes I agree but how is stimulating retail going to create wealth....All it will do it send 50% of the money to China.. If you want to stimulate the economy be smart about it....This schools upgrade idea is stupid, every school getting the same amount....So a school with 10 kids gets the same as a school with 1000 kids...A school that has just had a $2 million upgrade gets the same as a school that has not seen a coat of paint in 30 years.It is just jobs for the boys so the construction industry can still charge their $120 an hour to install a power point...



A big splurge on new houses...Will these houses be built where there is enough water and infrastructure to sustain them, or are they going to be built in Sydney or Melbourne or Brisbane where there is no water to spare...

Will immigration be cut due to the lack of available jobs???

I bet 90% of families are better off right now due to lower interest rates and fuel then they were twelve months ago...They are simply not spending because the government says things are bad..

And I am sick of people parroting the IMF.. Yes of course the IMF are big on stimulation packages because the governments will borrow money from the IMF to fund them..Win win for the IMF who then makes billion's of dollars in interest payments.

And the poor miners with their flash expensive cars for sale.....If they had have saved a lot of that huge wage they had they would not be in the situation they are currently in...

The only way to create wealth is to invest in nation building projects, all we are seeing is a splurge in industries that create very little export earnings...

[Lignin]

RC,
There is supposed to be a rule about slagging each other off on this forum, but I'm about to break it!!

You have NO BLOODY IDEA what my investment portfolio is.
For your pea brained information, the majority of it is in the so called Blue Chip companies that provide employment for literally thousands of Australians, The fact that at least one company, BHP Billiton, has reduced its profit forecast by 50% is hardly the fault of we high risk taking investors.
I repeat, I have paid taxes ALL MY WORKING LIFE(40 YEARS) BUT, I'm getting bugger all out of this government or any other, simply BECAUSE I was a bit careful.
To have someone suggest that I'm a risk taker ,and therefore deserve what befalls me, makes me bloody irate.
You DO NOT HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT YOU"RE TALKING ABOUT!!!
Do you have the balls to apologise???

Note to : Please leave this up.I know it sails close to the wind, but I'm furious, and I'm prepared to bet quite a few others are too.

[q9]

You were the one who was greedy and put the money into high risk areas, so don't blame me for your loss...You could have put the investment money into a high interest bearing account and you would still have their full value today...


That's about the most ignorant thing I've read on these forums, and I've been around here for a while!

The astute investor know the rule about eggs and baskets...balanced portfolio's and all that. Greed need play no part.

[.RC.]

RC,

Do you have the balls to apologise???



I have edited my original post..But I still believe shares are a inherent higher risk for income then a plain jane term deposit...Just be proud of the fact you have never received any welfare from the government..

[jerryc]

RC,

It's difficult to answer some of your statements because they are just a little "eccentric" If you sole intent was to be provocative then I congrratulate you. If you intended to be taken seriously then I am more than surprised.
The stimulation package is not directed at retail sales alone. A point both Sturdee and I have highlighted is that infrastructure spending will have beneficial effects. Perhaps you missed that comment. Spending on education is not, as you seem to think jobs for the building boys. ANY investment on education or education infrastructure is an investment in this country's future.

Low cost public housing is in short supply and a need exists to shelter those who might otherwise be subject to artificially high rents in time of shortage.

Trade is not something that should be protected by barriers. Trade is an international flow.That thinking of isolationism exacerbated the Great Depression. We had a boom because we sold to China. China paid top dollar of resources because it in turn could sell to America. So we have a vested interest in exporting what other countries are willing to buy from us. This stupidity about the flood of cheap Chinese goods misses the point. We sell to China, China's standard of living hopefully rises and that creates a bigger market for what we may have to offer.

The concept that 90% of families are better off is pure cloud cuckoo land. there are many out there who have lost jobs and many on short hours. Those families with jobs have reined in spending because of the knowledge it could be them next. A reasonable fear I would suggest and nothing to do with the government.

And you are sick of people parrotting the IMF. I'm no fan of the IMF, but to bring them into this discussion leaves me baffled. Could you please explain, with relevance to the present crisis, your point?


Jerry

[.RC.]

RC,

It's difficult to answer some of your statements because they are just a little "eccentric" If you sole intent was to be provocative then I congrratulate you

It was not intended to be provactive, I have apologised for using the word greedy in my original post if it was found to be offensive, it was not intended to be as most of us, myself included are greedy for more money to get a greater standard of living for ourselves and our family...My industry is currently experiencing low prices for the goods I produce, I am not going to complain as it is part of being self employed and I accept that..



The stimulation package is not directed at retail sales alone. No but the $12 billion in handouts are.


A point both Sturdee and I have highlighted is that infrastructure spending will have beneficial effects. Perhaps you missed that comment. Spending on education is not, as you seem to think jobs for the building boys. ANY investment on education or education infrastructure is an investment in this country's future.

I am not dismissing that but where is the money for more teachers then??? All this is is cash for buildings to keep the construction workers in jobs..


Low cost public housing is in short supply and a need exists to shelter those who might otherwise be subject to artificially high rents in time of shortage. but why build these houses in areas where they are not sustainable...


Trade is not something that should be protected by barriers. Trade is an international flow.That thinking of isolationism exacerbated the Great Depression

I have not advocated tariffs as such however we must do something to make it fair trade not free trade....Industries in China and elsewhere can pollute as much as they like, workplace safety standards are non existant, wages are incredibly low and we are expected to compete with that. Our current high lifestyle is based upon the exploitation of overseas workers...And the amusing thing is a lot of Australians were outraged when the previous government bought in legislation (workchoices) that was thought to allow exploitation..



The concept that 90% of families are better off is pure cloud cuckoo land. there are many out there who have lost jobs and many on short hours. Those families with jobs have reined in spending because of the knowledge it could be them next. A reasonable fear I would suggest and nothing to do with the government.

And how will a $950 handout help when they are not spending now??? I still believe most families are better off now then they were twelve months ago...


And you are sick of people parrotting the IMF. I'm no fan of the IMF, but to bring them into this discussion leaves me baffled. Could you please explain, with relevance to the present crisis, your point?

Kevin Rudd constantly says how the IMF says huge spending is the way out of the crisis...The IMF has a vested interest in lending countries money, that is how they make their money through interest in these loans....It was debt that got us into this mess and the current government line of thinking is it is debt that is going to get us out of it...


Jerry[/quote]

[Lignin]

RC,
Apology accepted.Thank you.

[Eli]

I do not understand why or how this situation has developed, but it seems to me that the blame lies fairly and squarely at the feet of the Yanks.

Seems to me you should blame yourself a bit more. You wanted a fat bloody profit just like everyone else, and I mean everyone. If the Australian market was as large as the Dow the entire world would have invested in it instead. There's a major correction and depression in the market about every seventy years. Know why? Because everyone that can remember the last one and is cautious has died. The next generation doesn't want to think it could happen again and the stupid ignore the evidence.

Humans are to blame. Not exclusively American Humans or only greedy humans. I don't play pokeys unless I'm super drunk, and I don't ever invest in stocks. I'm more likely to buy a shovel than a share.

I also don't blame citizens of other countries because I got my ass caught in the wringer. As was said by another poster, if you weren't willing to accept the full risk of investment, you should have kept the money in savings. A steadily compounded 3% over the life of your savings would look a lot better than a 30% loss right now. I don't think anyone has come out on top.

Be mad at the market sure. Curse your own lack of foresight for not burying jars of gold coins in the backyard instead of investing. But don't all over another country. Especially when conditions created by your fantastic profits for the last five years contributed to it. Millions of 'Yanks' are out of jobs and homes. My parents have suffered the same losses as yours. My Dad's gone back to work, he was to have retired this year. He figures he'll never stop now. My Mom has Parkinson's, how much of that filthy yankee money you figure she'll need towards the end and not have now?

You sound like a spoiled child that broke his toy. Blame yourself.

[ian]

Sorry Waldo

Mac had their dates organised from day 1 as dd/mm/yyyy or the Yankee mm/dd/yyyy.I haven't as yet read Waldo's response to this, but from memory PCs (DOS and Windows) and Macs (UNIX based) use different "base" years

software based on DOS had a recognised potential problem in 2000 — an example quoted to me was that because of the way DOS recorded dates, the software used by the Blood Bank to track blood and blood product would interpret 1 Jan 2000 as being YEARS after 31 Dec 1999 and consequently suggest that all stored bllod be destroyed as too old


software based on UNIX (including Macs) also had a "Y2K limitation", the difference to DOS was that the Mac's Y2K "year" was 2042 or thereabouts



ian

[.RC.]

http://www.ipa.org.au/news/1789/the-bail-out-disease


It's actually a bit misleading to describe our economic woes as a crisis.
If anything deserves that title, it was the asset bubble that was burst in the crash last year.
All the downsizing and unemployment that we face over the next year is not the crisis, it is the correction.
So when the Government tries to stimulate the economy with big spending and tries to resuscitate dying companies, it isn't resisting the crisis, it's resisting the correction. And preventing the economy from healing itself isn't doing Australians any favours.
Things fail. Napoleon failed to conquer Russia. Baz Luhrmann's Australia failed to be the next Titanic. And companies fail. In fact, building a successful business is an extremely hard thing to do.
The sooner we get to the last stage of grief - acceptance - the quicker our economy is going to recover.


Food for thought

[Jeff@G]

There was an interesting chap on the 7:30 report tonight who made an interesting point about income.
He said that over 20% of all income in the US is now going to 1% of the total number of earners there. (In 1980 that was under 8%)
He followed that by saying that the last time that ratio occurred was 1928.

I was quite stunned by those numbers. Greed has truly ranged out of control in recent years. How could that possibly be a sustainable ratio in a free market?
Does anyone think that the contribution to society made by such a few individuals is worth sucking that much wealth out of an economy?
The reports in recent years in Australia of grossly overpaid executives & fat cats make me think that Aussie has sufferred from a similar problem as these US numbers...

& I still can't imagine what I would have to do for a living, in order to feel like I would be justified claiming even 1 million$

Funny how people, even on this forum, are sccreeching @ each other over this... Will that help

[Cruzi]

Sorry Eli, you may have taken it personally, but bad decisions by the succesive US Governments have lead the world to this position, it is their fault. Not just Yank bashing here, its a fact, remember though you are no more responsible for it than Australians are for Rudd and Lil' Johnny.


Seems to me you should blame yourself a bit more. You wanted a fat bloody profit just like everyone else,


Do you really know what a share is?

Seems a lot of people have the wrong end of the stick about stocks and stock markets, everyone knows "buy low , sell high", but in reality what people do is "buy high, panic sell at low", not the markets fault.

"Serves you right" and "you knew the risks" are no comfort for people when the fund or bank collapses, so why direct it at people who dare invest in the market?
Remember what a share actually is and differentiate it to speculating.

The saying " safe as houses" will be challenged soon, WA and Qld are already seeing falls as a overheated market slows, serves you right for buying your home?

How about the people who bought into the gold boom in the 80's, are people who buy gold now any smarter?

So, lets review, banks are beng bailed out to stop them collapsing, many cash and mortgage funds have collapsed, property prices are falling, gold is fully valued, inflation is reducing buying power, company profits are falling (lower share prices), serves us right for taking risks?

Sheesh.

[jerryc]

Eli,

I back up all that Cruzi has said but would just expand a point on shares. Emotive language, such as greed and fat profits are not really what is at the base of a share. When someone buys a share they are taking a stake in a company. Hopefully that company is honest enough in it's accounting and other info to enable the share buyer to make a reasoned decision regarding how much risk he or she is willing to bear. Properly balanced and controlled, the share market is not akin to pokies.
Without it no company could prosper because it could not raise capital to generate more business.
The current crisis is, in part, genrated by a total lack of control in certain countries and through that lack of control unscrupulous CEO's have scewed information to the point of dishonesty.
As everyone knows, the sub prime scam started in America. That vulnerable people were preyed upon is an example of the result of lack of control. That other countries have been drawn in is in part because some of those countries equally lacked proper control. However trade is an interdependant web and so innocent countries and innocent shareholders suffered. Many shareholders have lost money, not because they were seeking fat profits but because the information on which they based their decision has changed.

Jerry

[Lignin]

Jerry and Cruzi,
Congratulations on your sober and reasoned replies.:U:U
Makes me feel a lot better about my first post, and not quite as angry as in my second.:;
Well done!!:2tsup::2tsup:
Jim

[silentC]

The Reserve Bank has slashed its growth and inflation forecasts, but predicts Australia will avoid a recession, while warning the jobless rate will rise significantly as the nation suffers fallout from the global financial crisis.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/rba-slashes-growth-forecast-20090206-7zee.html

[Waldo]

The link is stuffed, Dudd's must've got to it too.

[silentC]

Works for me. It's on the home page of www.smh.com.au. Headline: "More jobs to go, warns RBA".

[jerryc]

RC,
On the stimulation package, your argument is a bit wobbly. You start off by implying it is all retail and will only stimulate China's economy. In this you focus purely on $12 bill. The package is of course $48 bill and is aimed in others areas.

On the schools program, you ask why no spending on teachers? First there has been difficulty in recruiting for teaching, as there has been for nursing. Money alone will not ease that problem and it is an ongoing one. This is a SHORT TERM package designed to deal with the present crisis.

Then we come to the issue of housing "sustainability". Nice word that and quite in vogue. The idea of building low cost public housing does not preclude "sustainabilty" if it is built into the fabric of the house. You, however seem to think houses should not be built in major population areas. Surely you provide houses where population needs exist. People have to live near where work is available. They also want to live close to friends and relatives, their life network. You give no thought to that with your "sustainability"
After the Second World War, England tried a new and bold experiment in social engineering. they built satellite towns such as Crawley. Even though they encouraged industry to move there to provide jobs the people moved only under pressure.

On the trade issue you shift ground and bring in new arguments, In comes the sweatshop, pollution, work safety and Uncle Tom Cobley and all. They are vexed issues. Do we stamp out child labour when that labour may well be the only income in a family? We cannot force our standards on another culture. The path to Hell is paved with good intentions. What we can hope to acheive is that trade will open up that culture to new prospects and raise the general standard of living. Study labour conditions in England during the nineteenth century and you may understand what I mean.

You are entitled to your belief that families are better off now. One cannot argue against belief because there are no facts to engage with

And your beef against the IMF. As I have said previously I am no fan of the IMF. Rudd is invoking the name because most people have some idea it is THE GREAT ECONOMIC BODY. As a politician he has to condense argument to sound bites or lose his listeners. He could equally have said that most major world economic experts support the idea of a stimulous package.

As I have said previously, Economics is not an exact science. In any crisis there are conflicting views. Some economists are sincere in opposition whilst others seek to make a name for themselves. It's the nature of humanity.

Jerry

[Waldo]

Works for me. It's on the home page of www.smh.com.au. Headline: "More jobs to go, warns RBA".

Link worked the second time, SMH must've had a warning go about about me. :U

[jerryc]

Just been reading an economic report and a couple of things were there that might be interesting

RC
As I argued about China, that exposure to capitalism and Western ideas will raise standards of living so I find China has a massive 20 million unemployed and the government is keenly aware it has a social problem. It has put in place a stimulation package that, surprise, surprise, has a large infrastructure component in it. Also Chinese banks have markedly freed up lending.
We have to be prepared to abandon this "Chinese Crap" thinking. Before WW2 Japan bore a similar label. During WW2 they showed what they could design. Remember the Zero? And who now would call Toyota "crap" ? China has produced a fighter jet that is far superior to anything the Yanks have, but we, guided not by the military but by Brendan Nelson, went American.

Another thing to help in the doom and gloom is that the Chinese have depleted their stockpiles of resources, this means they could be back buying from us again soon.

Unfortunately I have to end on a down note.

Eli,

Remember I said shareholdeers are often punished not because of greed and a race for fat profits but by lack of transparency by companies?

Some economists believe banks are sitting on $1 trillion dollars of undisclosed debt, because they don't believe the market is ready for such revelations yet. This is not me and not some conspiracy theory nutter spruiking this but a well respected market watcher.


Jerry

[Jeff@G]

"China has produced a fighter jet that is far superior to anything the Yanks have"

Just wondering which fighter you refer to here Jerry?

[Bob38S]

I haven't as yet read Waldo's response to this, but from memory PCs (DOS and Windows) and Macs (UNIX based) use different "base" years

software based on DOS had a recognised potential problem in 2000 — an example quoted to me was that because of the way DOS recorded dates, the software used by the Blood Bank to track blood and blood product would interpret 1 Jan 2000 as being YEARS after 31 Dec 1999 and consequently suggest that all stored bllod be destroyed as too old


software based on UNIX (including Macs) also had a "Y2K limitation", the difference to DOS was that the Mac's Y2K "year" was 2042 or thereabouts



ian

Can't really help you out Ian as I'm no expert but I was told initially when all of the Y2K hooha started [I was looking after 40 Macs in a school] that it was all about the year only having 2 digits and when 2000 came along it would have had "00" as the year and that this would have been interpreted as 1900 - why I couldn't say. With regards the Mac I was told, by the experts, that it was no problem as the year part of the date had always been indicated as 4 digits, as to the year 2042, I have never heard of this before.

I do believe, however, that many IT "experts" [not all by any means] did play up on people's fears and exploited the situation for their own purposes - unfortunately, any situation [current downturn, recession, depression - whatever they want to call it] like this does tend to bring out the chicken littles, optimists and experts - according to the media reports - all claiming to be correct.

I'm also no expert in the economic area either but I'm getting a little tired of being told how bad it is - the blame game, we are not as badly off as others in the world - by now even Blind Freddy would have to realise there is a problem. This kind of talk etc is destroying public confidence as well as some peoples lives.

How about some positive media, politicians, business/trades people etc. We still have the skills, resources, a magnificent country, people etc - how about the so called "moovers and shakers", media, politicians, business/trades people start looking and and talking up our economy.

Regards,
Bob

[Ian Smith]

"China has produced a fighter jet that is far superior to anything the Yanks have"

Just wondering which fighter you refer to here Jerry?

They haven't. The best they have come up with so far is a rip-off of the Russian SU - 27 Flanker which they have labelled the J-11 and the Ruskies are far from happy about.

It apparently has some innovative electronics but it seems it's plagued with problems regarding the short life of components.

Nothing destroys an argument better than crap "facts":rolleyes:

Ian

[jerryc]

They haven't.

Nothing destroys an argument better than crap "facts":rolleyes:

Ian

Ah well everyone is entitled to one mistake. I have never put myself foward as a military expert so perhaps I can be forgiven this one. However I would argue that none of my other statements are "crap facts"

Jerry

[.RC.]

Just been reading an economic report and a couple of things were there that might be interesting

RC
As I argued about China, that exposure to capitalism and Western ideas will raise standards of living so I find China has a massive 20 million unemployed and the government is keenly aware it has a social problem. It has put in place a stimulation package that, surprise, surprise, has a large infrastructure component in it. Also Chinese banks have markedly freed up lending.
We have to be prepared to abandon this "Chinese Crap" thinking. Before WW2 Japan bore a similar label. During WW2 they showed what they could design. Remember the Zero? And who now would call Toyota "crap" ? China has produced a fighter jet that is far superior to anything the Yanks have, but we, guided not by the military but by Brendan Nelson, went American.

Another thing to help in the doom and gloom is that the Chinese have depleted their stockpiles of resources, this means they could be back buying from us again soon.



I am aware China can produce good stuff, however it is priced competitively to what we would produce so they do not produce it...

I am not against Infrastructure spending...I welcome it, but it has to be intelligent spending....At the moment it is like Kevin Rudd has a fire hose running full blast full of money and is just spraying it everywhere..

The schools infrastructure spending is good but it is a blanket spend, Every school gets the same amount regardless of how big they are or how much has been spent previously at each school....I queensland this will be administered by Q-build a government organisation...I am sure they will take their cut of the cash first..

The railway crossing upgrade...I really have no idea why that is there for, it certainly won't produce any wealth for the country... Again in Qld this will be built by Queensland Rail, a governemnt owned business...I do not believe QR employees are at any risk of losing their jobs...It was often remarks a QR job was a job for life as it is near impossible to be sacked..

I mentioned the houses being built in unsustainable areas...I still believe houses should not be built where there is not enough current resources to service them....We talk about how the Murray River is dying yet the Victorian government is going to build a pipeline from the Murray river to supply melbourne with water.... How is the country supposed to be developed if all we do is build the three major cities bigger and bigger..

Education is where a long term benefit could be felt BUT we must also change societies attitudes to teachers...Kids these days seem to be taught at home not to respect teachers and teachers have no disciplinary punishments of any worth available to them.. Only by making our children smarter can we grow the country in the long term..

The national broadband network is something that promises to bring great benefits to neraly every Australian, but it is in great danger of being scuttled by idiotic processes...It was not even mentioned in this infrastructure spend...

But one thing we must keep in mind is that if the government borrows the full amount they are asking for $200 billion, that will mean every man, woman and child has to pay back $9500 to an overseas business...We can only pay this back by exporting goods of similar value.. Where in this great money splurge is the money to keep the exporting industries going??? They are the most valuable industries we have...

Since military was bought up, why is it we are not going to be making parts for the upcoming F-35B...Initially we were going to but I have since heard it has been knocked on the head...There is another missed opportunity for Australia and it's shrinking manufacturing sector..

[ian]

Can't really help you out Ian as I'm no expert but I was told initially when all of the Y2K hooha started [I was looking after 40 Macs in a school] that it was all about the year only having 2 digits and when 2000 came along it would have had "00" as the year and that this would have been interpreted as 1900 - why I couldn't say. With regards the Mac I was told, by the experts, that it was no problem as the year part of the date had always been indicated as 4 digits, as to the year 2042, I have never heard of this before.Bob

from memory, DOS allocated the equivalent of 2 digits to the year portion of a date with a clock unit (the rest of the "clock unit" was used for day, month and time) software written by most (lazy?) developers accessed these two digits and added a 19 to get a four digit year. Hence the Y2K curfuffle
As I understand it, developers who were pedants in respect to time, checked for the elasped time since DOS's creation and added a 19 or 20 as appropriate before displaying a 4 digit date

Macs (and UNIX) clock units contain 32 bits and count time as the number of seconds that have elasped since 1 Jan 1970.
In early 2038 any remaining 32 bit UNIX/Mac "clocks" will roll back to the equivalent of zero hour, i.e. return to 1 Jan 1970 –
presenting a possible re-run of Y2K


ian

[Eli]

I don't understand why you guys keep saying Yanks when what you mean is Banks. The Y and B keys are nowhere near each other on the keyboard. You're still slagging a nation (and calling it 'fact'). :no:

I'm out, before I start saying really bad things. Enjoy your $hit-$linging, sorry about all the hard earned money lost, I'll go ahead and apologize on behalf of all the yanks who must have stolen it.

[Rossluck]

I don't understand why you guys keep saying Yanks when what you mean is Banks. The Y and B keys are nowhere near each other on the keyboard. You're still slagging a nation (and calling it 'fact'). :no:

I'm out, before I start saying really bad things. Enjoy your -, sorry about all the hard earned money lost, I'll go ahead and apologize on behalf of all the yanks who must have stolen it.

I'm with Eli on this. Blaming the US of A for this economic downturn strikes me as scapegoating on a large scale. Booms and recessions are a component of capitalism. We're all involved in the system, the system functions to a large extent by borrowing, and confidence that we're able to pay money back. History shows us that every now and then that confidence contracts, as it has now. Blaming the mortgage scam in the US for this downturn is a little far fetched.

Without wishing to lay blame, I'd be glancing in the direction of India and China, and their recent and spectacular plunge into the system. Now there is absolutely nothing ethically or morally wrong with the sudden increase in their economic activities, but it must change the function and balance of the system. Maybe this recession is an indication of these changes?

[Lignin]

Sorry, fellas, I think 'twas I who first suggested that the Good 'Ol US of A was the instigator of all our woes.:B:B
If my memory serves me correctly it was the failure if "Somebody" Mac, and "Fanny May" to meet their committments that started the ball rolling.Both these institutions are, I believe, American (or "Yank") institutions.
Panic breeds panic, and while not suggesting that some adjustment in lending policies and debt management was not inevitable at some time, it STILL seems to me that America sneezed, then we all caught a cold!:((:((

[Koala-Man]

Technically a ressesion is one Quarter of negative growth, a depression is more than one quarter.

Actually, Cruzi, a recession is just a sustained contraction in aggregate output which is usually measured by gross domestic product (GDP).

The conventional rule of thumb is that a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth (contracting GDP).

However that's just a convention and not an official definition, and not all countries or edonomists use it. It has problems - like what if you got three quarters of big contractions but they're interrupted by two quarters of little expansions?

In the US, people generally defer to the National Bureau of Economic Research which is a private sector non profit think-tank. They look at a bunch of indicators including GDP and employment and a couple of others then the final decision is made - not joking - by a committee.

There's no official benchmark for measuring or defining a depression either, it's just a deeper and more prolonged recession, a recession that won't go away. If a recession is the flu, a depression is glandular fever.

Having said all that, the definitions that I like best are these:

A recession is when you lose your job. A depression is when I lose mine.

[jerryc]

I don't understand why you guys keep saying Yanks when what you mean is Banks. The Y and B keys are nowhere near each other on the keyboard. You're still slagging a nation (and calling it 'fact'). :no:
.

Don't get too hot under the collar Eli. People tend to talk in shorthand. No one is attacking the American people. What we are saying is that a system failed because of lack of government control. American financial structure , being the powerhouse of present economic thinking, the monetarist theory, was an obvious spark waiting to create the fire. England under Thatcher followed that theory which is why it too is in deep trouble. The Geat Depresson of the 1930's started in America and reverberated around the World and, as now, the American people were not responsible and suffered badly. Again it was the system that was out of control.


I'm with Eli on this. Blaming the US of A for this economic downturn strikes me as scapegoating on a large scale. Booms and recessions are a component of capitalism. We're all involved in the system, the system functions to a large extent by borrowing, and confidence that we're able to pay money back. History shows us that every now and then that confidence contracts, as it has now. Blaming the mortgage scam in the US for this downturn is a little far fetched.

Without wishing to lay blame, I'd be glancing in the direction of India and China, and their recent and spectacular plunge into the system. Now there is absolutely nothing ethically or morally wrong with the sudden increase in their economic activities, but it must change the function and balance of the system. Maybe this recession is an indication of these changes?

I have argued from the start that finance is a house of card built on confidence, but it is also built on trust. The morttgage scam is universally recognised as the spark that ignited the fire, because it exposed the point I made earlier that the one dollar was not turned into an equal dollar debt but was sold on until it generated thirty dollars in debt. Banks and financial institutions had become too greedy. A collapse has a starting point and the sub prime was it.

"Without laying the blame" Then what are you doing? To bring them into the equation without facts or argument as to their part in this is difficult for me to grasp. You might just as well blame Australia. We have had a spectacular mining boom. That has caused a noticable capital inflow over about ten years. You might equally have argued that the rise of the oil producing countries was responsible because they too "changed the balance".

What all three of these areas of economic activity did was to invest in America's debt. To finance it's deficit. To imply blame here for the present crisis is really pushing things a bit far. Where we might worry is that these countries call in that debt and who would blame them? If you lend money to a business and it goes wobbley, wouldn't you think of getting some of it back?

Jerry

[Lignin]

Add a little humour to the discussion.:U:U
Look in on "Woodies' Jokes" and read Breslauer's "Financial Vocabulary"
It just might alter your perspective!!:2tsup::2tsup:

[Rossluck]

A collapse has a starting point and the sub prime was it.

"Without laying the blame" Then what are you doing? To bring them into the equation without facts or argument as to their part in this is difficult for me to grasp. You might just as well blame Australia. We have had a spectacular mining boom. That has caused a noticable capital inflow over about ten years. You might equally have argued that the rise of the oil producing countries was responsible because they too "changed the balance".


Jerry

It's not just members of this forum who (to quote Prime Minister Curtin in another context) "look to America". Our pollies are doing it as well. What I'm trying to suggest is that the blame game itself is a little spurious given that these ups and downs are historically destined to occur. With a stronger and upward bound world/capitalist economy, very few of us would have heard the words "sub prime". It's a symptom rather than the cause of the disease. What Eli and other Yanks are suffering from is a world that is inclined to say "we're suffering now because a bunch of greedy people in the US lent people money that those people couldn't afford". I don't think my kids would buy that yarn. :p

[Waldo]

world that is inclined to say "we're suffering now because a bunch of greedy people in the US lent people money that those people couldn't afford". I don't think my kids would buy that yarn. :p

It's exactly what happened, cause and effect.

[.RC.]

So will anything change???

I cannot see it happening with the government desperately trying to keep the status quo going..

[Rossluck]

Anyway, I hereby declare that I know nothing of economics, and that's the way I want to keep it. :D

But from a historical perspective, this recession was bound to happen sooner or later. We're all part of a sine wave I'm afraid .... :(