Climate Change & global warming

[echnidna]

I recall researching Climate Change (& global warming) years ago.

Scientific predictions included

Lower average rainfall in australia
(something like a reduction of 60% over 20 years)

Extremely high rainfall during intense storms

Stronger winds

More violent storms

Higher average temperatures.

Now I really reckon we have been seeing those effects the last few years.

Even in the past few months we've already seen several max strength cyclones\ hurricanes etc.

Coupla years ago a lot of south america was under water
So was a lot of europe

Oz city reservoirs never seem to have "average" water levels

[silentC]

Are these scientific predictions based on observing current trends and projecting them, or on looking at possible causes and predicting the outcomes? Reason I ask is that there's no doubt the climate is changing, you only need to have been alive for 30 or 40 years to know that. The question is, are the changes natural or caused by us? I mean, everyone has heard of ice ages and volcanic ages and so on. So why can't this be just a natural part of the cycle?

Of course it's a moot point when the dams and rainwater tanks are empty. We bought a load of water recently: 3,000 gallons for about $200. He can't pump it out of the Bega river any more because the council wont let him, so it had to come from the mains. The guys across the road are on their second load this year. If I recall correctly, we've had two reasonable falls (about an inch) this year and that is all.

[Grunt]

Most scientists believe that global warming is caused by us humans.

Check out this thread on another forum (http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic16648.html)

Chris

[bitingmidge]

Well Bob, it's safe to say that none of those predictions are particularly accurate, when viewed with actual data as opposed to the odd storm which is the "worst I can remember".

This from:http://www.deh.gov.au/soe/2001/atmosphere/atmosphere02-2.html

Regional rainfall trends from 1910 to 1999 show both increases and decreases (Figure 17). Large increases (greater than 20 mm per 10 years) have been observed over northern and eastern New South Wales. A decrease has occurred in south-west Western Australia. During the past 50 years, the largest increases (more than 30 mm per 10 years) have occurred in the north-west of Australia, while largest decreases (more than 30 mm per 10 years) occurred in the east of the country (Figure 18).

Note that the weather boffins consider 30mm per 10 years to be a large increase!

Check out also http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/climate/change/20050106.shtml and you'll see that more parts of the country are experiencing highest rainfall on record than are experiencing lowest on record, it just happens that the city catchments aren't built in the right place.

Also look at that page for the temperature graphs, currently averaging 0.35 -0.5 degrees above average, but it looks as though it may be trending down on the graphs.

All through the sixties and seventies they used to scare us with the new ice age coming, now I reckon they are overcompensating.

I don't believe in the rampant destruction of all this non-renewable fuel mind you, and there may be something in all this in the long-term, but it's bugger all at the moment!

Cheers,

P
;)

[ozwinner]

, but it looks as though it may be trending down on the graphs.


P
;)

So wait for it to bottom out and show an incline then, BUY, BUY, BUY...

Al :cool: