breaking covid rules

[Lappa]

Please don’t blame “Sydney” as a single entity re virus spread. There are many LGAs whose people are following the restrictions to the letter and have no or very few cases. The cases in Maroubra were caused by people from the South West of Sydney breaking rules and visiting a house. I listen to the reporters at the Press meetings saying why isn’t it all of Sydney that has curfews, you are only punishing parts of Sydney. Damn right - they are the f&$#*wits that can’t follow the rules and regulations, don’t give a damn and make the rest of us suffer.

I have problems with the NSW Govt decisions at time though. They gave permission for 60 people to attend a funeral in Wilcannia when the rest of the State is 10. Then approx. 400 turned up, joined in a Covid huddle, got infected then spread it to the four corners.

[justonething]

The NSW government apparently still allows punters to turn up at bunnings browsing for 1 dollar a tin of wax. Go figure.

[Lappa]

The NSW government apparently still allows punters to turn up at bunnings browsing for 1 dollar a tin of wax. Go figure.

Bunnings are now click and collect only, throughout the whole of Sydney, not just the high risk LGAsvv

[justonething]

Bunnings are now click and collect only, throughout the whole of Sydney, not just the high risk LGAsvv

So I heard, But its bunnings who decided it was not safe for staff to keep the stores open. NSW government still apparently allows it...

[woodPixel]

Bunnings' esential staff may not feel so essential when they get the plague due to work.

Wait until a few workmates drop dead.

They'll feel more like sacrifices.

[woodPixel]

Warb, you may be interested, our chemist has now put up a thing at the door so people cannot get in.

One asks for the item and they go get it. This applies to prescriptions too.

I liked it. It reminds me of an old fashioned shoppe where the wares are displayed on a tall wall.

It seems a sane response to keep highly valuable staff safe.

[ian]

As I see it, If NSW had implemented a proper lockdown in a timely manner and enforced the rules properly then Victoria would not be in it's current position. And taking it one stage further, all of Australia was pretty much COVID-free - until some genius decided we were doing so well - "Let's open the international border. We can contain it with Hotel Quarantine". Without that stroke of genius there would be no Delta in Australia. Even Dictator Dan could see that coming when he said "If we don't lock a few people out we will have to lock everyone down."
I'll be very blunt -- Australia is still very much Covid free.
Here in Alberta (population about 4.4 million), the daily case numbers are greater than what NSW is currently experiencing.



and yes, my perspective is somewhat skewed.
I'm one of the people that "Dictator Dan" meant when he referred to "lock[ing] a few people out ..."
Perhaps I should apply to be recognised as a "Stateless person", given that my country of citizenship has made my return to Australia completely unaffordable. When I looked at air fares last week, the cost to fly on United out of LA was >$20,000 (AUD) per economy seat. Even if I max out all my credit cards, at that price I still can't afford to purchase the 2 seats I'd need to return "home"

[pippin88]

As I see it, If NSW had implemented a proper lockdown in a timely manner and enforced the rules properly then Victoria would not be in it's current position. And taking it one stage further, all of Australia was pretty much COVID-free - until some genius decided we were doing so well - "Let's open the international border. We can contain it with Hotel Quarantine". Without that stroke of genius there would be no Delta in Australia. Even Dictator Dan could see that coming when he said "If we don't lock a few people out we will have to lock everyone down."There is not such thing as truly closed borders. Want medicines? They come from overseas. Someone has to fly the plane.

Blaming individual cities does nothing. Melbourne was similar in 2020 (with a less infectious variant).

COVID was always going to get out again in the community. It is highly infectious.

Australia has done incredibly well and been Evry lucky suppressing COVID. Unfortunately that has lead to mass complacency. And in combination with crap media reporting and IMO short sighted ATAGI advice, resulted in widespread vaccine hesitancy. We have squandered our good fortune.

[GraemeCook]

I'll be very blunt -- Australia is still very much Covid free.
Here in Alberta (population about 4.4 million), the daily case numbers are greater than what NSW is currently experiencing. ...


Yep, the Pacific Ocean does make a reasonable moat, but given the credulity of the previous US administration, I then questioned whether it was adequate.

Down here in Tasmania we have also raised the drawbridge and effectively closed Bass Strait, locking out "all those contaminated people from Sydney and Melbourne". Drastic, but it seems to be working. We have only had one covid case this calendar year. And restrictions here are relatively minor:

sign into any commercial premises (for tracing purposes),
hand sanitisation,
maintain social distancing - 1.5 metres,
wear masks when visiting hospitals,
that's it.

But we know other restrictions will be instantly rolled out if or when we have an outbreak.

But we did have very tight restrictions when we had a major outbreak in Burnie (pop 20,000) with 700+ infections, 15 deaths in March-April 2020. Locked in homes, could only visit local shops, pharmacy, doctor, everything else closed, Police patrolling and $1,000 fines. Even tighter around Burnie. But 90% of people supported the restrictions; we grumbled but agreed.

One "trick" allegedly used by Police in enforcing travel bans is to input a car rego number into their computer, which instantly gives the home address and calculates the distance from home. If more than 3 kms away then please explain. I got pulled up for a random breath test and the young constable greeted me by name and observed that I was only 2 blocks from home. This is consistent with the "trick".

As to people trapped overseas we keep hearing monopoly numbers of those on the waiting list for repatriation. The blocking point is hotel space available for quarantine - cost about $3,000 per person after you arrive - and I cannot realistically see it abating this year. The best I can say for your situation, Ian, is that I would prefer to be trapped in Alberta than a lot of other places.

Maybe you will have to join the "in crowd" who seem to be able to travel internationally without restrictions.

[GraemeCook]

As I see it, If NSW had implemented a proper lockdown in a timely manner and enforced the rules properly then Victoria would not be in it's current position. And taking it one stage further, all of Australia was pretty much COVID-free - until some genius decided we were doing so well - "Let's open the international border. We can contain it with Hotel Quarantine". Without that stroke of genius there would be no Delta in Australia. Even Dictator Dan could see that coming when he said "If we don't lock a few people out we will have to lock everyone down."

Really? When were the international borders openned - apart from New Zealand?

[Lappa]

So I heard, But its bunnings who decided it was not safe for staff to keep the stores open. NSW government still apparently allows it...

Not true. These are the rules re Bunnings issued by the NSW Govt

“From Monday 23 August 2021 the following businesses cannot open to members of the public but can be open to trade or business customers


garden centres and plant nurseries
hardware and building supplies
landscaping material supplies
rural supplies
timber supplies. “

[doug3030]

Blaming individual cities does nothing.

Where did I even mention an individual city? :rolleyes:

[ian]

As to people trapped overseas we keep hearing monopoly numbers of those on the waiting list for repatriation. The blocking point is hotel space available for quarantine - cost about $3,000 per person after you arrive - and I cannot realistically see it abating this year. The best I can say for your situation, Ian, is that I would prefer to be trapped in Alberta than a lot of other places.

Maybe you will have to join the "in crowd" who seem to be able to travel internationally without restrictions.
Look as I've already said, even if I max out all my credit cards, I can't get close to the >$40,000 AUD I'd need to get my wife and myself back to AUS.
finding an additional $3,000 each for hotel quarantine is irrelevant in my situation.

[Warb]

Down here in Tasmania we have also raised the drawbridge and effectively closed Bass Strait, locking out "all those contaminated people from Sydney and Melbourne". Drastic, but it seems to be working. We have only had one covid case this calendar year. And restrictions here are relatively minor:

The fascinating thing is that Tasmania, according to last Fridays statistics in the Guardian (online) are leading the way on vaccinations. I can only assume that the "Burnie event" scared a lot of people - I suppose Tasmania is not very big, either geographically or in population, so people took more notice of the outbreak and acted in a more proactive way?

WA, from the same source, are lagging behind - presumably again the perceived low risk causing no motivation (as was the case in NSW and most other states until recently!).

[woodPixel]

Look as I've already said, even if I max out all my credit cards, I can't get close to the >$40,000 AUD I'd need to get my wife and myself back to AUS.
finding an additional $3,000 each for hotel quarantine is irrelevant in my situation.

Wondering if there is a sea-going skipper with a 40 footer who might like a bit of a sail? :rolleyes::rolleyes:

[ian]

Yep, the Pacific Ocean does make a reasonable moat, but given the credulity of the previous US administration, I then questioned whether it was adequate.

Down here in Tasmania we have also raised the drawbridge and effectively closed Bass Strait, locking out "all those contaminated people from Sydney and Melbourne". Drastic, but it seems to be working. We have only had one covid case this calendar year. And restrictions here are relatively minor:

sign into any commercial premises (for tracing purposes),
hand sanitisation,
maintain social distancing - 1.5 metres,
wear masks when visiting hospitals,
that's it.

But we know other restrictions will be instantly rolled out if or when we have an outbreak.
This is issue of States being permitted to close their borders seemingly at will, is something I feel very strongly about.

All state governments and territories are sailing very close to, if not directly into, the wind when it comes to "border closures" and travel bans.


Up until the formal adoption of the Statute of Westminster on 9 October 1942, (although the Statute's adoption was made retrospective to the outbreak of WW2), certain sovereign powers -- including the ability to independently declare War, were "reserved" to the UK sovereign. I don't know how many on here can recall hearing a repeat of Menzies' "as a consequence Australia is also at War" speech.

So up until September 1939, not even the Commonwealth had full sovereign (i.e. independent) power, and the state parliaments which federated into the Australian Commonwealth on 1 January 1901 NEVER had those powers.


When Mr Palmer attempted to invoke s.92's "intercourse among the states ... shall be absolutely free" to challenge the validity of the Border Directions issued under WA's Emergency Management Act, the High Court held that the real constitutional question was whether the Border Directions exceeded the statutory powers conferred under WA's Emergency Management Act. And as Palmer had not argued that the Border Directions were outside the scope of that statutory power, the s.92 constitutional question did not arise.


It will be interesting to see if Palmer can succeed against WA should his proposed s.117 "no different treatment" challenge proceed.
As I understand the "facts" Premier McGowen is proposing to require people from other states, including people from WA who have been in another state, to prove they are NOT Covid positive before allowing them to enter WA.


What I find distressing is that Covid is thrusting a knife into the heart of Australia's guarantee of freedom of movement between the states.

[justonething]

Not true. These are the rules re Bunnings issued by the NSW Govt

“From Monday 23 August 2021 the following businesses cannot open to members of the public but can be open to trade or business customers


garden centres and plant nurseries
hardware and building supplies
landscaping material supplies
rural supplies
timber supplies. “



I did not know that.
What I know is this statement from Bunnings
"With the new restrictions on retail spanning a large part of Sydney, Bunnings has made the decision to temporarily close all its stores across Greater Sydney to the general public," Bunnings managing director Mike Schneider said on the 20th August, 2021 (https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-updates-bunnings-closes-sydney-stores-to-retail-customers-during-lockdown/04fe9c6f-8aa2-447c-a1d9-3d447806af09).
That's 3 days before the NSW government's order.

[Lappa]

The decision was announced by the Premier at the 20th August press conference and was slated to come into effect from Monday 23rd together with the curfew laws. I suppose it was to give people a small space of time to get things in order. I, for one, would prefer to see these changes come into effect from midnight on the day they are announced.

[GraemeCook]

The fascinating thing is that Tasmania, according to last Fridays statistics in the Guardian (online) are leading the way on vaccinations. I can only assume that the "Burnie event" scared a lot of people - ?..

Yes, but The stats may be a little misleading in that Tas vax rates are only fractions of a percent ahead of other areas. Last night, 36% were fully vaccinated and a further 20% had received the first vax.

Where we are ahead is that the vax rats are quite uniform around the state; without the disparities of other states. For example, Brisbane has very high vax rates whilst Logan has amongst the lowest in the country. Last time I looked Logan was essentially a suburb of Brisbane.

We are all guilty of complacency.

[Picko]

I did not know that.
What I know is this statement from Bunnings
"With the new restrictions on retail spanning a large part of Sydney, Bunnings has made the decision to temporarily close all its stores across Greater Sydney to the general public," Bunnings managing director Mike Schneider said on the 20th August, 2021 (https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-nsw-updates-bunnings-closes-sydney-stores-to-retail-customers-during-lockdown/04fe9c6f-8aa2-447c-a1d9-3d447806af09).
That's 3 days before the NSW government's order.

It's confusing to say the least. I've just been to my local hardware which was open to anyone. I just checked the NSW covid site which says they can be open.
499954

[Warb]

Yes, but The stats may be a little misleading in that Tas vax rates are only fractions of a percent ahead of other areas. Last night, 36% were fully vaccinated and a further 20% had received the first vax.

36% for Tasmania, only 26% for WA. The "predicted" time to 70% fully vaccinated (over 16's), based on a 7 day rolling average of daily doses, is 54 days for Tasmania, 62 days for NSW and 95 days for QLD. Interestingly it's 76 days for WA, so whilst they're lagging behind it looks like they're catching up! Nonetheless, Tasmania are doing well!

I wonder (assuming it's not politically incorrect, which when I think about it seems very likely!) if anyone has done any analysis on those differing rates within a state. It could be socio-economic, or perhaps religious, if the varying uptake is based on vaccine-hesitancy rather than availability. In western NSW apparently the vaccination numbers are shockingly low, but the rumour mill (it's too political for any official comment) is that the indigenous population have been very unwilling to get vaccinated.

[Lappa]

It's confusing to say the least. I've just been to my local hardware which was open to anyone. I just checked the NSW covid site which says they can be open.
499954
There are two lists as such. The one I posted is for the 12 LGAs of concern. The one you posted is for LGAs in the Greater Sydney Area but not one of the 12 LGAs of concern To save confusion Bunnings decided to apply the rules to all their stores in the greater Sydney Area. Coles will be closing at 8:30pm in the LGSs of concern but it’s business as usual in the other LGAs but I’m not sure about Woolies.

This is a link to the opening page re Covid Restrictions

COVID-19 rules | NSW Government (https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/rules#rules-and-restrictions-for-your-area)

A little further down it divides into Greater Sydney, Local Government Areas of Concern, Rural NSW etc.


499962

I agree it’s as clear as mud because when you do a search for restrictions in Google, you get a variety of links which can take you to the opening page, the page for the 12 LGAs of concern or the General Sydney Area or old rules and Regs.
My wife and I went for our usual walk today and 50% of people out there were not wearing masks when the rules state when outside your home you must wear a mask. The reason for not wearing a mask is if you are exercising and Barilaro said today walking or walking a dog is not exercise
so so you must wear a mask. Very confusing to say the least and is the information getting out to everyone. Unless you listen to the news or watch the 11am Gladys show, you have no idea of the rules. No adverts, nothing on social media from the Govt.

[Bendigo Bob]

With Bunnings closed to public now except for Click'n'collect I was surprised that paint items can't be bought that way.

Was after some Scandi Oil, but their web site says no to it all.

Thankfully one of the paint shops carries Feast Watson and had a litre can and was willing to sell at the door.

Boy, this is getting to be a pain :)

But, as I keep reminding myself - first world problems Bob!

[GraemeCook]

This is issue of States being permitted to close their borders seemingly at will, is something I feel very strongly about.

.....

What I find distressing is that Covid is thrusting a knife into the heart of Australia's guarantee of freedom of movement between the states.

I would have expected a lot of people to share your view, Ian, but that does not seem to be the case. There is a tremendous amount of debate on the matter and opinion seems to be overwhelmingly in support of the lockdowns and the drawbridge. Many more comments complaining that the government is too lax, especially where the are exemptions from the state border restrictions, and/or quarantine provisions.

Please note that my comments apply particularly to Tasmania which may be a little more insular than the mainland. I do not know of any surveys, but from discussions, my estimate is that at least 80%, possibly 90%, of people support the drawbridge.

[Bendigo Bob]

What I find distressing is that Covid is thrusting a knife into the heart of Australia's guarantee of freedom of movement between the states.

Understandable Ian, especially as it seems increasingly pointless, judging by other countries experiences. Hard lockdowns, border closures, are only delaying the inevitable spread. The thing that puzzles me is, what do they think they will do if they do crush the virus #'s to zero? The way they talk in their daily briefings, I get the feeling they think something magical will happen when they get to xx% vaxxed.

It's almost as if Australia is now a victim of its own success over the past year.

[woodPixel]

The decision was announced by the Premier at the 20th August press conference and was slated to come into effect from Monday 23rd together with the curfew laws. I suppose it was to give people a small space of time to get things in order. I, for one, would prefer to see these changes come into effect from midnight on the day they are announced.

This is EXACTLY what happened in Wuhan. Exactly.

This is why the world now suffers.

[ian]

The decision was announced by the Premier at the 20th August [a Friday] press conference and was slated to come into effect from Monday 23rd together with the curfew laws. I suppose it was to give people a small space of time to get things in order. I, for one, would prefer to see these changes come into effect from midnight on the day they are announced.
I suspect that it's more a case of the decision [to lock down more strongly] was made a few minutes before the 11 AM press conference. i.e. the decision to lock down more strongly was not made far enough in advance (like one to two days) to allow the public servants involved the time they need to carefully craft the required lock down regulations.
Just look at what is happening with the "northern border bubble" -- the definitions of which people crossing the NSW-Qld border are considered "essential workers" changes every few days as the applicable regulations are "refined". I also note that while NSW Police may be working cooperatively with Qld Police, the border restrictions apply to people entering Qld, not those entering NSW.


"Dictator Dan" has locked parts of Victoria down five or six times already, so has the required regulations ready to go at essentially a moment's notice.
For NSW, the current lock down is their first experience of a state-wide lockdown and the last thing any of us need is for NSW Supreme Court to toss out a "lock down" regulation as being disproportionate to the threat posed by Covid.
But remember, as sovereign entities, the legislation in each state is sufficiently different as to require careful drafting in each separate case.

[ian]

I would have expected a lot of people to share your view, Ian, but that does not seem to be the case. There is a tremendous amount of debate on the matter and opinion seems to be overwhelmingly in support of the lockdowns and the drawbridge. Many more comments complaining that the government is too lax, especially where the are exemptions from the state border restrictions, and/or quarantine provisions.

Please note that my comments apply particularly to Tasmania which may be a little more insular than the mainland. I do not know of any surveys, but from discussions, my estimate is that at least 80%, possibly 90%, of people support the drawbridge.
the fact that 70 or 80 or even 90 percent of Tasmanians support border "the Tassie drawbridge" doesn't make those people right.

At its core, the Australia Constitution is essentially an agreement that all trade, commerce and intercourse between the states "shall be absolutely free". The principal of free trade requires that the "means of conveyance" be irrelevant and that people, goods, services and communications should move freely across state borders.

In Palmer vs WA, the High Court determined that the s.92 "absolutely free" arguments advanced by Palmer were not relevant to the constitutional question as to the validity of the WA's Emergency Management Act so struck down the s.92 challenge.


If the High Court ultimately determines that the Biosecurity Act and orders made under the several State's Health Acts can freely be used to prevent the interstate movement of people, then God help the Australian notion of what it means to be "free".




Understandable Ian, especially as it seems increasingly pointless, judging by other countries experiences. Hard lockdowns, border closures, are only delaying the inevitable spread. The thing that puzzles me is, what do they think they will do if they do crush the virus #'s to zero? The way they talk in their daily briefings, I get the feeling they think something magical will happen when they get to xx% vaxxed.

It's almost as if Australia is now a victim of its own success over the past year.
Worse.

Even if you are fully vaccinated, the probability that you will end up being so ill (from the Delta variant) that you require hospitalisation is around 1 in 15, and the probability that you will end up in the ICU is about 1 in 20 -- i.e. around 5%

Vaccination, whether with AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna, does not confer immunity from either infection or the ability to transmit the virus.

From what I read and hear on science based broadcasters, the Delta variant while a different more contagious form of the virus, is not a more infectious form of the virus.
(If people can distinguish the difference in meanings between "more contagious" -- e.g. spreads more easily -- and "more infectious" e.g. causes more infections.)

[Warb]

From what I read and hear on science based broadcasters, the Delta variant while a different more contagious form of the virus, is not a more infectious form of the virus.
(If people can distinguish the difference in meanings between "more contagious" -- e.g. spreads more easily -- and "more infectious" e.g. causes more infections.)

Contagious and infectious are often used interchangeably, even by official bodies. While that technically might be incorrect, in fact most data is showing that delta is far more contagious than previous variants, i.e. it spreads more easily.

Contagious means it spreads between people, infectious means it causes an infection (disease). By definition, if it spreads it does so by infecting and so whenever I read "more infectious" I simply interpret it is an inaccurate phrasing of "more contagious". However "more infectious" could refer to the more rapid reproduction of the virus; the data I have seen suggests that delta reproduces far more rapidly than previous strains, and this is suggested to be the reason it is more contagious - a far smaller "dose" is required to guarantee the survival of the virus and its subsequent attack on the body.

There is also the question of the impact of the virus and the severity of symptoms. The data I have read (for example the CDC quoting Scottish and Canadian data) suggests that delta is likely to be more "harmful" than other variants, causing more symptoms and a greater rate of hospitalisation and death. As discussed in a previous post, the difficulty arises because the "total" (un-processed) numbers that are published in the media do not give a true representation of reality. For example, when covid "alpha" first appeared we were completely unprepared. No masks, no isolation, no vaccination and no idea how to treat the patients. Compare that to the current situation, where we have a great deal of experience of dealing with covid, we have masks, lockdowns, social isolation, a fair percentage of people are vaccinated or (possibly) immune through prior exposure. We have now spent nearly two years manufacturing ventilators, training medics and exchanging information about how to combat the disease. Also, being brutally honest, worldwide (not so much in Australia) many of the "easy targets" for covid have already succumbed. So the delta variant is facing a far more "battle hardened" version of the human race (again, not so much in Australia!). Numbers reflecting totals therefore do not give an accurate picture. It is my suspicion, given the data I have seen, that delta is indeed more contagious AND more harmful than alpha, and the only reason that the "total" numbers do not reflect this is that we are slightly better prepared and the (forgive me) "easy targets" have already fallen.

[Lappa]

"Dictator Dan" has locked parts of Victoria down five or six times already, so has the required regulations ready to go at essentially a moment's notice.
.

Victoria has now been locked down longer than London

[Warb]

I'm getting more and more annoyed by media interviewers trying to push people in to giving definitive answers of "guarantees", and then criticising them later for being "liars" when things don't pan out. It's even more disturbing that so many people seem to jump on the bandwagon, claiming that some individual is a "liar" because what they said was later changed. What is wrong with these people? They clearly have no grasp of the reality of the situation! There is almost nothing in the world that can be guaranteed. Things change, situations evolve and this results in plan changes. If someone says they will arrive at 9am to help, but they have a flat tyre and don't turn up until 10am, should we berate them as a "liar"? Apparently so! When the school bus, which is supposed to arrive at 7.45am, doesn't arrive until 8am because a kid was travel-sick, or another parent was running late, should we make social media posts calling the bus driver a liar and demanding they be sacked?

All those people are trying their best, but changing circumstances result in plans and dates being modified. The politicians are no different. They are taking advice, making decisions and hoping that things go to plan. Sometimes things don't. Sometimes people don't do what they are told, so the desired outcome isn't achieved. Sometimes the best modelling in the world turns out to be inaccurate. If you push someone into giving an absolute response, you are doing so either in the hope you will be able to criticise, or because you have no understanding of what is happening.....

[The above does not excuse all errors, by the way, but a plan changing due to unforeseen events is not "lying"].


On another note. Things I'm surprised I haven't yet seen in the media, number 1:

"Long Novid" - the symptoms of anger, lethargy, despair etc. caused by extended periods of lockdown in areas that don't have cases.

[GraemeCook]

Victoria has now been locked down longer than London

So true, and it shows in the numbers.

Allowing for the differences in population, one measure is covid deaths per million of population:

United Kingdom - 1,928
Australia - 38

Essentially, Australia has been 50 times more effective at preventing covid deaths than Britain.

Australia has had too many covid deaths, 984 officially, but if we had avoided lockdowns and had been as effective as Boris then perhaps the death toll would now be approching 50,000! The lockdowns are a pain; the alternative is a lot worse.

There have also been wide variations between the states and even between regions within a state. The figures below are current:

500002

[ian]

Things I'm surprised I haven't yet seen in the media, number 1:

"Long Novid" - the symptoms of anger, lethargy, despair etc. caused by extended periods of lockdown in areas that don't have cases.
I would swear that I have seen such a "diagnosis"


:D

[ian]

Allowing for the differences in population, one measure is covid deaths per million of population:

United Kingdom - 1,928
Australia - 38

Essentially, Australia has been 50 times more effective at preventing covid deaths than Britain. of course, the corollary is that the population adjusted infection and death rates are so very very low, that its only the current non-outbreak that is causing people to consider to be vaccinated. And according to Warb, the pharmacy's customers are still asking for the Pfizer "the safe one" rather than accepting the safe vaccine that is available.

[ian]

Australia has had too many Covid deaths, 984 officially, but if we had avoided lockdowns and had been as effective as Boris then perhaps the death toll would now be approaching 50,000! The lockdowns are a pain; the alternative is a lot worse.

There have also been wide variations between the states and even between regions within a state. The figures below are current:

500002Increasingly, I'm finding these sorts of "league tables" to be of only marginal utility.


Don't forget, that once Boris was "convinced" that achieving herd immunity by letting Covid rip was a really bad idea (and I suspect his advisors might have had to channel Yes, Prime Minister to convince him) he did lock London down.


Sweden, which from what I read has adopted a "low touch" approach, might be a better example -- 109,779 cases per million, and 1438 deaths per million.


Serum testing in LA county suggests that 1 in 2 Americans have been exposed to the virus, so that would adjust the US's numbers to 500,000 cases per million.



IMO, in Australia it's well beyond time that we stopped reporting raw case numbers, and instead focused on the impact the endemic is having on the health system.

Unfortunately for Australia, our various governments used the period (March 2020 to June 2021) when we were all exalted to help flatten Covid's pandemic curve, to not even think about, let alone plan for, what must come next.

From what I can see from this distance, there has been no attempt to bolster the various health system to cater for a permanent increase in hospitalisations due to Covid infections -- even with a high level of vaccination, 1 in 15, perhaps as many as 1 in 10 people infected with Covid will require hospitalisation.
Where is the Government's plan to permanently increase (and staff) the number of hospital beds that will be required? From what I can see it hasn't even been considered.


Apart from Australia and New Zealand, the rest of the world has accepted that Covid is now endemic.

But I'm reluctant to group New Zealand with Australia. NZ, being NZ, have probably started on bolstering their health system to cope.

[ian]

I'm getting more and more annoyed by media interviewers trying to push people in to giving definitive answers of "guarantees", and then criticising them later for being "liars" when things don't pan out.
[snip]
All those people are trying their best, but changing circumstances result in plans and dates being modified. The politicians are no different. They are taking advice, making decisions and hoping that things go to plan. Sometimes things don't. Sometimes people don't do what they are told, so the desired outcome isn't achieved. Sometimes the best modelling in the world turns out to be inaccurate. If you push someone into giving an absolute response, you are doing so either in the hope you will be able to criticise, or because you have no understanding of what is happening.....
the Military fully accept that the best plan will never survive the first shot

[woodPixel]

First - Imagine 50,000 dead Australians from COVID.

Second - S92 of the constitution is a mess. Here is an excellent synopsis: https://auspublaw.org/2020/06/border-closures-covid-19-and-s-92-of-the-constitution/

[GraemeCook]

... Increasingly, I'm finding these sorts of "league tables" to be of only marginal utility. ...

An inconvenient truth!



... Don't forget, that once Boris was "convinced" that achieving herd immunity by letting Covid rip was a really bad idea (and I suspect his advisors might have had to channel Yes, Prime Minister to convince him) he did lock London down. ...

Meanwhile, 130,000 Brits died.

And yesterday, there were only 31,914 new cases and 40 deaths. Hardly getting on top of the problem.

[Warb]

And according to Warb, the pharmacy's customers are still asking for the Pfizer "the safe one" rather than accepting the safe vaccine that is available.

It is being reported that there are 10,000 AZ vaccination appointments cancelled EVERY DAY in Victoria, because people would rather wait for Pfizer.

[Bushmiller]

Much of the attitude towards this pandemic depends on what is considered acceptable. Australia really has said that even a single death is unacceptable while some countries, such as the US, the UK and many others have taken the deliberate approach reminiscent of "natural attrition." Other counties have had this attitude forced upon them: Brazil for example.

One of the early concerns apart from death and unpleasant illness was the overspill of health facilities. I think Ian mentioned this and much of our efforts at constraining the virus were to prevent the health facilities becoming overwhelmed. Triage was a real fear and one that no health system should be confronted with. We do seem to have forgotten that. Dying out on the pavement in the forecourt of a hospital seems an inglorious way to depart.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

And yesterday, there were only 31,914 new cases and 40 deaths. Hardly getting on top of the problem.

That might be the future, at least for a while!

The question boils down to whether we want the entire population to live in lockdown for months/years/forever in the hope that covid goes away.

Perhaps the real inconvenient truth is that this is something we can't avoid. Perhaps, as I said earlier, the reality is that do have to alter our current views on life expectancy. Maybe, just maybe, the reason that the "live with it, like we live with 'flu" line is starting to be pushed along with "'flu kills hundreds every year" (in fact over 3000 in 2018, in Australia alone) is that the powers that be are fully aware that this will never go away, and that no vaccine will 100% stop it.

When the Doherty modelling says "it's safe to open up at x% vaccinated", I am 100% certain that they are not saying "no-one else will ever die of covid" - such a concept defies all logic. What they are saying, I suspect, is that the small gains to be made by waiting beyond that % vaccinated do not justify the massive impact of lockdowns.

Perhaps I'll never get to see any grandchildren, but I think I'd rather have my kids enjoy their lives whilst I'm alive!

[BobL]

This is instructive -
The cause rankings stay pretty constant except for flu when from 2010 to 2019 went from #15 to #10 and also look at accidental falls.

500022

[pippin88]

Bob, the differences in the reported causes over those 10 years will be due to differences in reporting, not true changes of those magnitudes.

Influenza testing has become much more readily available / done.

Look at the differences in dementia deaths. Dementia incidence / prevalence has not changed to that degree.

A lot of the time when someone elderly, it gets labelled a heart attack (ischaemic heart disease). Many of these are a guess / something has to be written on the death certificate (rather than a true diagnosis). Many of these deaths may be labelled differently over time (perhaps they are being attributed to dementia now)

[Bushmiller]

What they are saying, I suspect, is that the small gains to be made by waiting beyond that % vaccinated do not justify the massive impact of lockdowns.



Warb

The law of diminishing returns. It must come to that one day. The big question, and no doubt will continue to be the subject of huge controversy, is when.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

Bob, the differences in the reported causes over those 10 years will be due to differences in reporting, not true changes of those magnitudes.

Influenza testing has become much more readily available / done.

Look at the differences in dementia deaths. Dementia incidence / prevalence has not changed to that degree.

The other factor is as follows. At the dementia workshop for families I attended in 2019 this was discussed with the dementia specialist and she indicated that there's been a big rise is dementia deaths in the last 20 years. Some of this is due to people living longer and they are able to get their other illnesses attended to or managed but dementia is basically incurable so it gets them in the end.

[Warb]

Warb

The law of diminishing returns. It must come to that one day. The big question, and no doubt will continue to be the subject of huge controversy, is when.

Regards
Paul

Indeed! The problem is that at present many people are still under the belief (misapprehension) that the small number of people who have died so far in Australia will be the final tally, and that "soon" we will see an end to covid. You only have to look at the comments sections in the media, or many forums and social media, to realise that some people still believe we should lock down until there is zero covid, and that such a move would remove covid forever. It's completely unrealistic, of course, but as Arthur Dent once said, "I always find that the prospect of death contracts the mind wonderfully".

[A Duke]

Hi,
If you have out lived three score and ten, then you are on borrowed time already.
Regards

[GraemeCook]

... This is instructive - The cause rankings stay pretty constant except for flu when from 2010 to 2019 went from #15 to #10 and .....

The incidence of flu is very variable and is currently zero, as noted by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners:

500033
(Source: www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/australia-records-zero-flu-deaths-over-past-12-mon)


Bob, please note the RACGP graph relates to flu only, whereas your stats lump flu and pneumonia together.

[ian]

The other factor is as follows. At the dementia workshop for families I attended in 2019 this was discussed with the dementia specialist and she indicated that there's been a big rise is dementia deaths in the last 20 years. Some of this is due to people living longer and they are able to get their other illnesses attended to or managed but dementia is basically incurable so it gets them in the end.
Perhaps it's mostly due to Australia having an aging demographic.
Actuaries have the best handle on the relevant stats, but going off Treasury's Intergenerational reports --
Australia's dependency ratio (folks older than 70 and kids under 20 vs working age folks) is increasing as the average age of the population increases -- it's all the fault of those bloody baby boomers, again.
Add in all those restrictions on manual handling and the advanced exoskeletons that allow workers to lift heavy loads or stand for long periods without suffering fatigue and the country is "headed for the dogs". It is no longer acceptable -- as if it ever should have been to work a person till they wore out.
In my former industry labourers over the age of 50 were a rarity. By age 45 a worker's body was worn out and you would "terminate" them -- you just didn't use "extreme prejudice".




BTW
I read a report in the last two or three months suggesting that China's demographic is following a worse trajectory than Australia's. Not only did China's "one child policy" encourage the termination of female foetuses leading to an estimated 20 million (?) more male babies, the experience of a generation, or more, of mothers only having one child appears to be encouraging their kids to see only having a single child as "normal".

[D.W.]

Economic prosperity is also leading people in China to determine that maybe it's better to forgo having kids, and they're starting to deal with burnout, too (individuals both not wanting kids and wanting to withdraw from the mainstream economic system).

I'm an actuary. I'm not a health pricing actuary, nor do I have access to any data re: dementia. My mother was diagnosed with dementia about 2 years ago at age 71 (she's 73 now, of course). She's not a basket case yet, but my grandfather suffered from what we'd call "senility" at a slightly later age, to the point that his cognition was really poor. He was a physical worker his whole life (a farmer born in the early 1900s), and a nearby son assisted with his day to day affairs, as was often the case with older relatives. Because of that, his lack of cognition never showed up (he died at 79 of a heart attack after cutting down trees of all things - something he was very familiar with, and would've been one of the last things to go). I see the following potential issues:
1) more utilization of health care (so more folks with cognitive deficiencies are seen)
2) better identification of disease in general (we don't just write folks off as "old" if they are easily confused and weren't a couple of years ago, or if they've lost sense of timelines, spatial things, short term memory and proper nouns)
3) far greater intake of medication (no clue if this is an issue - but there are a lot of anticholinergic medications and it appears that their intake is associated with onset of dementia at later ages)
4) worse physical condition and perhaps bloodwork profiles (not sure if after the medication that it's worse). I read a study not that long ago that stated that if you're overweight all your life and you're hoping to improve bloodwork to improve cognition, fair chance that things may go the other way (as in, a fat hungry brain may not cooperate if you cut the fat that fuels it).

I don't know that there's a definitive answer - not because you can't analyze the data, but because the data sourcing hasn't been that consistent, and now we generally identify causes of deficient mental or physical health rather than describing them as "senility" or "old age".

if there is good data on something like this, it will have to come from countries with standardized systems and standardized reporting. Once things get looser in terms of where the data came from, how it was reported, etc, how that changed over time, it just gets harder and harder to make definitive statements (but I've noticed a lot of non-actuarial studies like to come to a fairly firm conclusion even when I would be hesitant).

Maybe I'm getting old and outdated, but it seems like when complex modeling and a lot of effort is involved, sometimes the effort leads folks to become more and more confident and attached to their outcome vs. just "reporting the facts" as they are and stating that the modeling or adjustments were needed just to get something workable. We *do* live in a world where nobody really likes to fund a study and then get a bunch of maybes. I like maybes if they're legitimate, because the maybe may get you toward a correct answer once you start sorting through it. Far better than an assertive incorrect answer and then much later correction.

[Warb]

Once things get looser in terms of where the data came from, how it was reported, etc, how that changed over time, it just gets harder and harder to make definitive statements (but I've noticed a lot of non-actuarial studies like to come to a fairly firm conclusion even when I would be hesitant).

This seems to be a consistent pattern in the way we do things at the moment. We compare data from multiple sources, taken with multiple methodologies, sometimes even editing the historical data because "we don't think it was correct", then make a conclusion (normally one that supports our original hypothesis). This is then supported by statements like "you can't argue with the science".

My original qualification, a very long time ago and far from my subsequent career path, was in the sciences. We were taught that science was based on facts, and that a scientist tries their hardest to disprove a hypothesis, and only when unable to disprove it can it be thought of as correct. These days I get the impression that the process has changed somewhat!

[BobL]

Perhaps it's mostly due to Australia having an aging demographic. .

I doubt Australia's demographic has changed that much over those 10 years, probably medical advances don't explain it all either. Something that has increased significantly is early onset dementia but not enough to explain these numbers. I agree reporting causes change over time as well. Probably a combo of all of these factors.

[ian]

I doubt Australia's demographic has changed that much over those 10 years, probably medical advances don't explain it all either. Something that has increased significantly is early onset dementia but not enough to explain these numbers. I agree reporting causes change over time as well. Probably a combo of all of these factors.
Hi Bob

see this chart lifted from Treasury's 2010 Intergenerational Report
In 2010, the dependency ratio was projected to move 600 basis points between 2010 and 2020, and 1200 basis points between 2010 and 2030.
That's more than a little shift.
Also note the increasing percentage of Australia's population expected to be aged over 65 in 2020 and later years.
(BTW, I can't see a similar chart in the 2021 IGR)

Note that the first of the baby boomers became eligible for the pension in 2010, and the last of them (those born in 1965) will become eligible for the pension in 2032.

[GraemeCook]

... (BTW, I can't see a similar chart in the 2021 IGR) ...

As a former insider, one can hypothesise that the absence of such a chart may indicate a "discontinuity".
Translation: "Our former guestimates did not pan out. Hope no one notices."

One pertinent factor not covered by that chart is the impact of superannuation:

1970 - very few retiring in 1970 had adequate superannuation,

Now - many more retirees now have superannuation pensions, but still a lot of room for improvement.

Future - governments need to "encourage" - probably by both carrot and stick - almost everyone to have better superannuation. (But there are big philosophical barriers within the Parties complicating policy development.)

[GraemeCook]

I doubt Australia's demographic has changed that much over those 10 years, probably medical advances don't explain it all either. Something that has increased significantly is early onset dementia but not enough to explain these numbers. I agree reporting causes change over time as well. Probably a combo of all of these factors.

It seems rather incredible, Bob, but Australia's life expectancy has been increasing by about one year every four years since 1900.

500065

Also, birth rates are down. The young'ns arne't as active as we were, and we were certainly less proficient than our grandparents.

[D.W.]

Mortality rates among key ages have generally been improving about 1% per year on average in most organized countries (caveat, I haven't studied this in detail for all countries). That translates to something along the lines of if 100 out of 100,000 at a given age become deceased in 2020, then in 2021, that figure would be 99, and so on (it's an exponential type function, so not just 98, but rather 0.99*.99, and so on.

Covid has created a pretty big issue with the overall general trend! The excess mortality last year is something we have not seen in my lifetime.

Funding of public and private retirement systems is an interesting topic, because the workforce doesn't really find usefulness for people any longer than it has in previous generations, but we live longer. Disability increases significantly after a given age (in the US, the social security administration makes it pretty easy to get disability after about mid 50s or so, but it's true that actual disability increases quite a bit beyond the amount of abuse that occurs in our disability situation).

I have my doubts that working past a normal retirement age is much different than it was in the past, though under the table work may be less common.

[Bushmiller]

It seems rather incredible, Bob, but Australia's life expectancy has been increasing by about one year every four years since 1900.

500065

Also, birth rates are down. The young'ns arne't as active as we were, and we were certainly less proficient than our grandparents.

Graeme

We are getting a little off topic here, but I believe procreation has been modified by a few things. Firstly the older generations had not really worked out how to stop births other than abstinence: This was also coupled (ooops, that was an unfortunate phrase) with high birth and and infant mortality rates. In a way one cancelled out the other much like other animals in nature. Then at some point, contraception became more widely available and adopted. This coincided with our expectations of material possessions increasing. However, we could no longer aspire to our own home, more than one car, holidays every year, various other marvellous luxuries and afford a tribe of children. Children became more expensive to rear and sending them out to work was increasingly was frowned upon. Contemporaneously the infant mortality reduced, largely through improvements in medicine, and we no longer had to rely on many births to support the future of our particular family.

Medicine is arguably a wonderous thing, but the law governing survival of the fittest went out the window and with it, to some degree, balance.

Regards
Paul

[BobL]

It seems rather incredible, Bob, but Australia's life expectancy has been increasing by about one year every four years since 1900.
.

Yeah I've seen that but I doubt that is enough to explain what's going on.

Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over increased from 13.5% to 15.9%, which is a relative increase of 17%
In contrast, Deaths from Dementia over the same period increased by 67%

Just listening to an Audio book available from teh public library called "Lockdown" (by Peter May), and it reminds me of how much worse things"could have been" or dare I say, "get"
The book was written some 15 years ago and describes a very contagious bird flu pandemic hitting the UK but teh rest of the world locks down early so it's largely confined to the UK.
55% of people get it and there's a 70-80% fatality rate within a couple of days, so there are enough hospital beds.
People in lockdown areas get shot if they venture outside.
Richer parts of London are patrolled by private security.
So far there's no vaccine but there is a limited supply "treatment" called "flukill" that needs to be very taken early in the infection period.
The medication is reserved for law and order and medical personnel but of course those with the necessary $$ can find it as well.
Very interesting

[ian]

Yeah I've seen that but I doubt that is enough to explain what's going on.

Between 2009 and 2019, the proportion of the population aged 65 years and over increased from 13.5% to 15.9%, which is a relative increase of 17%
In contrast, Deaths from Dementia over the same period increased by 67%in 2009, the people turning 65 had been born in 1944, while those born in 1954 were turning 65 in 2019. But, as I understand the demographics, the increase in dementia is among those older than 80, or perhaps 85.
If you were 80 in 2009, you were born in 1929.
If you were 80 in 2019, you were born in 1939.

Perhaps the 67% increase in deaths due to dementia has a lot to do with people's diets during the Great Depression and up to the mid 30s?
I know that the absence of folic acid -- vitamin B12 B9 -- (sourced from fresh vegies) during the Dutch famine of 1944, was later associated with an increase in the incidence of kids born with spina bifida specific health deficiencies.

It might be too late to establish a correlation between dementia, a person's year of birth, their early life diet, and other factors, but if possible it would be an interesting study.
Too many current dementia studies seem to assume no correlation between a person's diet in early life and dementia. If such a correlation could be shown to exist, then current projections surrounding the instance of dementia might need substantial revision.
I understand that around 40 years ago, a correlation may have been established between aluminium pots and pans and dementia.

[ian]

Just listening to an Audio book available from teh public library called "Lockdown" (by Peter May), and it reminds me of how much worse things"could have been" or dare I say, "get"

The book was written some 15 years ago and describes a very contagious bird flu pandemic hitting the UK but the rest of the world locks down early so it's largely confined to the UK.
55% of people get it and there's a 70-80% fatality rate within a couple of days, so there are enough hospital beds.
that's a very inefficient virus.
55% of people infected combined with a 70 - 80% fatality rate suggests that the Peter May's "bird flu" virus will die out very quickly.

I don't feel like doing the maths, but May's virus has a lot of similarities with Ebola. Very high death rate among the infected - but give the virus a week or so and there'll be no one left to infect.

[markkr]

I know that the absence of folic acid -- vitamin B12 -- (sourced from fresh vegies) during the Dutch famine of 1944, was later associated with an increase in the incidence of kids born with specific health deficiencies.


I understand that around 40 years ago, a correlation may have been established between aluminium pots and pans and dementia.

Ian, folic acid (also - rarely - called vitamin B9) and B12 are not the same.

Folate is indeed sourced from vegetables, but B12 is sourced from animals. This is why vegans can have real problems in this regard. Mushrooms are a source, but many end up on supplements.

Lack of folate in early pregnancy increases risk of failure of proper development of the spinal cord, causing spina bifida ('neural tube defects'), hence the use of folate supplements.

Both folate and B12 deficiency can give rise to (macrocytic) anaemia - abnormally large red cells. Long term severe B12 lack can cause a neurological abnormality in adults called subacute combined degeneration of the spinal cord.

Finally, like you I remember the business with Al and dementia, but do not recall any followup. I don't recall ever seeing anything in the medical literature or any discussion in the medical world.

Cheers,

Mark

[ian]

Ian, folic acid (also - rarely - called vitamin B9) and B12 are not the same.

Folate is indeed sourced from vegetables, but B12 is sourced from animals. This is why vegans can have real problems in this regard. Mushrooms are a source, but many end up on supplements.

Lack of folate in early pregnancy increases risk of failure of proper development of the spinal cord, causing spina bifida ('neural tube defects'), hence the use of folate supplements.

Both folate and B12 deficiency can give rise to (macrocytic) anaemia - abnormally large red cells. Long term severe B12 lack can cause a neurological abnormality in adults called subacute combined degeneration of the spinal cord.Mark
Thanks for the correction

[GraemeCook]

Graeme

We are getting a little off topic here, but I believe procreation has been modified by a few things. ...

You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

[woodPixel]

You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

hehe. My newly-married 25yo Daughter is 13 weeks preggo :)

COVID lockdown baby!

So not far off the mark....

[Bushmiller]

You are being a little too literal, Paul. Or my joke was too heavily disguised!

Graeme

I actually did detect a little bit of tongue in cheek: At least I think that is the right place for the phrase, but for once my serious self overrode my facetious self.

:-

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

hehe. My newly-married 25yo Daughter is 13 weeks preggo :)

COVID lockdown baby!

So not far off the mark....


Congratulations, Grand Dad!

[ian]

Congratulations, Grand Dad!
:whs:

[Picko]

So it was me yesterday! Walking with my wife as we do every day, sometimes twice, waiting to cross the road when one of the cars we are waiting for, the local cops, puts his window down and says "masks guys, where are your masks". I thought we were exercising and therefore weren't required to have them on. Does this mean that I need to run and huff, puff and sweat on everyone to constitute exercising? Like I said before the rules are confusing at best. We can see that most people on our walks obviously think the same as us. :?

[Warb]

So it was me yesterday! Walking with my wife as we do every day, sometimes twice, waiting to cross the road when one of the cars we are waiting for, the local cops, puts his window down and says "masks guys, where are your masks". I thought we were exercising and therefore weren't required to have them on. Does this mean that I need to run and huff, puff and sweat on everyone to constitute exercising? Like I said before the rules are confusing at best. We can see that most people on our walks obviously think the same as us. :?

It was, at least in the official announcement that I heard (or possibly read), defined specifically as "strenuous" exercise. I did notice when I went in to town on Friday that "wearing yoga pants" seemed in many people's opinion to equate to "strenuous exercise". It also looked like "carrying a water bottle" equated to "eating or drinking" and therefore also granted exemption from wearing a mask. The difficulty arises, I suspect, because the official government sources are never actually seen by most people who simply look at the snippets or edited highlights in the media, or worse still the re-quotes on social media. The officials making the announcements can't include every single detail, because the announcement would be too long (and the media would simply edit it anyway). Subsequently, of course, (and talking generally rather than in regards to Picko's post) many people interpret the rules in the way most favourable to their own circumstance or wish. Hence the interpretation (very early on in lockdown 1.0) that "no church choirs " and "schools remain open" could be combined to mean it was OK for the Sunday school choir to sing in church.......

I have to go to the supermarket today, and there are now at least three confirmed cases in town (one in the last few days), so we'll see if that has had any impact on people's adherence to the rules in this part of the world!

[Picko]

Well there you go, I didn't know about the "strenuous" part, but in my defence, we had one of our daughters with us yesterday and to keep up to her pace, for me, is strenuous. :) Future walks will be masked up and away from the unmasked huffing and puffing runners.

[Lyle]

Maybe they, the cops, just wanted to see that you had a mask on you. My understanding is that when doing "strenuous" exercise you don't need to be masked up, but rather still need to have a mask on your person.:U

[BobL]

that's a very inefficient virus.
55% of people infected combined with a 70 - 80% fatality rate suggests that the Peter May's "bird flu" virus will die out very quickly.

I don't feel like doing the maths, but May's virus has a lot of similarities with Ebola. Very high death rate among the infected - but give the virus a week or so and there'll be no one left to infect.


Book fizzled out - a bit like the virus.
Disappointing, as it started out quite well but then it turns into a detective story with the usual over dramatic impossible climax - clearly written spruking for a movie script.

[Picko]

Maybe they, the cops, just wanted to see that you had a mask on you. My understanding is that when doing "strenuous" exercise you don't need to be masked up, but rather still need to have a mask on your person.:U
Yeah maybe, they didn't hang around to explain the rules to us. We pulled masks out of pockets and they kept driving.

[ian]

Yeah maybe, they didn't hang around to explain the rules to us. We pulled masks out of pockets and they kept driving.
sounds like you were all squared away then.


Mask on person, not on face = exercising.


sounds like the wallopers were exercising their discretion.

so nothing to worry about.

[Warb]

We are getting a little off topic here, but I believe procreation has been modified by a few things. Firstly the older generations had not really worked out how to stop births other than abstinence: This was also coupled (ooops, that was an unfortunate phrase) with high birth and and infant mortality rates......

Added to this, according to my 16 year old daughter, is the fact that young people are constantly being told that previous generations have wrecked the planet, that climate change is largely irreversible, and that the future of the human race is rather grim. If that is true (and apparently that is the view the school system and social media is pushing at her generation) she sees no reason to have kids, and sees that as the prevailing opinion of her peers. It is her belief therefore that in addition to the financial and lifestyle constraints kids create, there is a feeling of "what's the point?" when it comes to the future of the species.....

[Bushmiller]

Added to this, according to my 16 year old daughter, is the fact that young people are constantly being told that previous generations have wrecked the planet, that climate change is largely irreversible, and that the future of the human race is rather grim. If that is true (and apparently that is the view the school system and social media is pushing at her generation) she sees no reason to have kids, and sees that as the prevailing opinion of her peers. It is her belief therefore that in addition to the financial and lifestyle constraints kids create, there is a feeling of "what's the point?" when it comes to the future of the species.....

Warb

That is interesting. we are getting off topic again, but as that has not really stopped me in the past I see no reason to depart from my path. I have a young friend who is fifteen, very bright (annoyingly so at times) and she expresses the view, that despite her elevated intelligence, has zero chance of getting a job when she reaches adulthood. I have frequently pondered, "where the f*&# is this coming from." Your comments now lead me to think that it may be promoted at school and or the media, but then I feel that all this is contrary to the essence of schooling so is that really the case?

I am a little mystified. I also tend to despair when I hear that the baby boomers are responsible for the mess we are in, but that is definitely a topic for another thread. I would further add that throughout time there have been people who have deliberately not had children believing that the world is no place for innocents.

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

... we are getting off topic again, but as that has not really stopped me in the past I see no reason to depart from my path.....

It's only a little off topic, because we were standing in the queue at the pop-up vaccination clinic this morning (to get her Pfizer shot) when we were talking about it!!

[woodPixel]

... according to my 16 year old daughter, is the fact that young people are constantly being told that previous generations have wrecked the planet, that climate change is largely irreversible, and that the future of the human race is rather grim. If that is true (and apparently that is the view the school system and social media is pushing at her generation) she sees no reason to have kids, and sees that as the prevailing opinion of her peers. It is her belief therefore that in addition to the financial and lifestyle constraints kids create, there is a feeling of "what's the point?" when it comes to the future of the species.....


That is interesting. we are getting off topic again, but as that has not really stopped me in the past I see no reason to depart from my path. I have a young friend who is fifteen, very bright (annoyingly so at times) and she expresses the view, that despite her elevated intelligence, has zero chance of getting a job when she reaches adulthood. I have frequently pondered, "where the f*&# is this coming from." Your comments now lead me to think that it may be promoted at school and or the media, but then I feel that all this is contrary to the essence of schooling so is that really the case?

This is 100% true that the majority feel this way - for when looked at objectively it is true. The entire system (assets, taxation, education, environment) is viciously and cynically rigged against them.

In China it is being called "Laying Flat" (tangping (躺平)) and its become a HHHUUUGGGEEE issue. Hugely huge.

The youth have passed despair and are now resigned to the fate handed to them. They are literally waiting for "the path to clear" before they act as a group. They are doing this as "our generation" utterly refuse to move. So they wait for us to die.

They weren't cheering with COVID19 being called the "Boomer remover" for no reason. Even this has now been taken away from them! :)


edit: I found this article which described Tangping (https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/the-lying-flat-movement-standing-in-the-way-of-chinas-innovation-drive/) very well. I feel its very important and we should all understand it. There is a real current of despair amongst young people and simply dismissing it is to our peril.

[ian]

Added to this, according to my 16 year old daughter, is the fact that young people are constantly being told
that previous generations have wrecked the planet,
that climate change is largely irreversible, and
that the future of the human race is rather grim.
If that is true (and apparently that is the view the school system and social media is pushing at her generation) she sees no reason to have kids, and sees that as the prevailing opinion of her peers. It is her belief therefore that in addition to the financial and lifestyle constraints kids create, there is a feeling of "what's the point?" when it comes to the future of the species.....
I'm a 66 year old boomer and have to mostly agree with your 16 year old.

and while the Boomers might get the "blame" -- I'll posit that the immediate post-Boomer generation (Gen X) -- who make up the bulk of our current crop of politicians -- are equally if not more liable. After all they have seen what the boomers did to the planet and jumped right in and made the situation even worse.

[Warb]

This is 100% true that the majority feel this way - for when looked at objectively it is true. The entire system (assets, taxation, education, environment) is viciously and cynically rigged against them.

In China it is being called "Laying Flat" (tangping (躺平)) and its become a HHHUUUGGGEEE issue. Hugely huge.

edit: I found this article which described Tangping (https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/the-lying-flat-movement-standing-in-the-way-of-chinas-innovation-drive/) very well. I feel its very important and we should all understand it. There is a real current of despair amongst young people and simply dismissing it is to our peril.

Leaving the wrecked planet issue aside for a moment;

It's a very interesting article, but I'm not sure it's the same thing my daughter is expressing, and it also has some unanswered questions. For example, at no point has my daughter expressed any interest in ceasing to be a consumer - in fact the mere thought of not having a phone, laptop, clothes etc. would, I'm fairly certain, cause major hysteria. Equally, whilst that article discusses consumer culture, it doesn't (that I can see) suggest that the people laying flat have ceased to want, or use, modern technology or any other consumable.

I'm also not 100% sure that life is too much different than when I was starting work. Even back then, one had to start at the bottom and work up, though interestingly I remember the father of a friend of mine (40 years ago) discussing changing opinions. His exact comment was:

"When I was younger and I saw a nice car, I thought I'll work hard and one day I'll own a car like that. These days young people see a nice car and run a key down the side of it".

Like I said, that was 40 years ago and sounds much like the situation today!

Through my career in I.T., and since retiring, I've also noticed some changes. I was in I.T. very early, it was a very new field - nobody had computers at home, for example. In those days we worked hard to get the job done, whatever hours and weekends were required. BUT, when the work was done, we also played hard. And stupid! People rode unicycles round the office, we did all kinds of stupid stuff and spent money on stupid things. But, and this is the big thing, we did that AFTER the work was done and the customers were happy. In the last couple of years I've been to a few I.T. companies to visit for various reasons, and I've noticed a change. The offices are all super-glamorous, even relatively small companies. They are all super-well equipped with the latest everything, espresso machines, toys (radio control helicopters etc.) and everyone is having a ball. Yet the customers (in a couple of cases I know because I was one!) are not happy. The work has not been done, the software doesn't work properly etc. etc.. What this translates to is that they are taking the rewards without doing the work.....

That is the underlying sentiment that I sense from the younger generation. They see "us", the older generation, owning houses, cars, lathes, whatever. They are constantly bombarded with images of glamourous lifestyles, things that they want, and they know with absolute certainty that they can't afford those things. But what they don't see is that when we were their age, we couldn't afford them either! I tell my daughter that when I was 21 I had two jobs, lived in a rented house I shared with 4 other people, had 2 sets of clothes ("work" and "everything else") and we went to the pub once a week and nursed a single pint of beer all night. Without trying to sound like the Four Yorkshiremen sketch, "that's the trouble with the youth of today, when you tell 'em that they don't believe you". And it's understandable because all they see, all they are told, everything around them says "you should be doing this, buying that" and they can't. But nobody ever could when they were young, it's a fiction trying to get them to spend money they haven't got. Sadly it's also making them very miserable and disillusioned!!

[Bushmiller]

That is the underlying sentiment that I sense from the younger generation. They see "us", the older generation, owning houses, cars, lathes, whatever. They are constantly bombarded with images of glamourous lifestyles, things that they want, and they know with absolute certainty that they can't afford those things. But what they don't see is that when we were their age, we couldn't afford them either! I tell my daughter that when I was 21 I had two jobs, lived in a rented house I shared with 4 other people, had 2 sets of clothes ("work" and "everything else") and we went to the pub once a week and nursed a single pint of beer all night. Without trying to sound like the Four Yorkshiremen sketch, "that's the trouble with the youth of today, when you tell 'em that they don't believe you". And it's understandable because all they see, all they are told, everything around them says "you should be doing this, buying that" and they can't. But nobody ever could when they were young, it's a fiction trying to get them to spend money they haven't got. Sadly it's also making them very miserable and disillusioned!!

Warb

I was going to say that! Well, not exactly the same, but the same tone. There is increasingly an expectation among younger age groups of entitlement. As you have said, they see what we have and expect the same...right this minute. Having said that, neither of our children have succumbed to this way of thinking. However, I have certainly seen it with others. They require a brand new car and a large house whether they actually need it or not. Perhaps it is this expectation coupled with the realisation that it is not possible in a twelve month period after starting work that leads to their despondency. They just want too much too quickly and see it can't be done.

There is another aspect that forty or fifty years ago there were more jobs available. A budding apprentice could reasonably expect a choice of several job offers. Today we have the situation where students are required to remain at school for longer and even university graduates are not guaranteed work on completing their degree. In fact a high percentage of graduates never use the degree they studied (I don't recall the figures, but it is high).

Different times, but have times always been different for all generations? Perhaps just a different type of different?

Regards
Paul

[Bendigo Bob]

Read some of this thread, especially regards the younger generation and their existential malaise.

Can recommend a marvellous book that looks into the strangeness of the young today

The Coddling of the American Mind

(How good intentions and bad ideas are setting up a generation for failure.)

Authors - Greg Lukianoff & Jonathon Haidt

I must say it is absolutely brilliant.

And for further reading in the general 21st century craziness

The Madness of Crowds. By Douglas Murray

[BobL]

Something still not being given anywhere near enough attention to in this whole schemozzle is similar to what I have been rabbiting on in the dust forum about for years and that is the issue of "forced fresh air ventilation".

Until this is addressed by State Health Authorities in a BIG way they simply cannot say they have pulled out every big trick in the book on mitigating COVID19.

Yesterday I listened to an ABC program that featured a country doctor who said that he and 500 other doctors/aerosol scientists/air quality engineers had written to all state and fed governments health depts about addressing this and they got a form reply from just one Dept flunkies, "Thank you you information has been noted" .

The segment went onto explain the potential role of CO2 monitors in assessing air quality (and hence residual virus) and (just like dust) how out of date CO2 levels in air are. Apparent Denmark and several other European countries are reassessing standards to take virus control into account in air turnover in buildings based on air CO2 levels. All public buildings but especially hospitals will need to meet certain air CO2 levels.

The fact that some AUS quarantine is moving out of hotels and into individual buildings is a sort of sideways reference to this.
Finally after many months Masks mandating is also related to this.

What's missing as general advice to folks in isolation living with possible COVOD carriers in the same dwelling is to increase the air flow in/out of dwellings "put on a jumper and open all the effin windows?"
Maybe get a fan or two and even portable HEPA air filter. If that happened here I would move my Workshop HEPA room air filter into the house.

In commercial and public buildings and spaces like public transport refitting all the air flow requirements is going to be very expensive. Not just the cost of the air delivery system but the hit on AC costs and people will almost certainly complain but better a bit colder or warmer that catching this wretched thing.

Of course its not an instant cure all but all it has to do is aid in dropping the reinfection rate by a few 10% of percent to below 1. It will also help with other viruses like the common cold.

Lots of people are onto this and the sales of CO2 monitors and air filters on ebay are booming.

I looked into CO2 monitors about 5 year ago when they were mostly expensive (hundreds of $$) but over the last year or so, I've notice there a HEAPs of budget end ($20) monitors with a mobile phone connectivity and readout. Just how accurate they are is unknown - I have been tempted to buy one and try it out but without considerable expense, calibration of low level CO2 is tricky so I'm passing for the immediate moment. I might try to make one - more for fun than accuracy :)

[D.W.]

Agree with the comment above. Last year, my spouse was angry with me because I wouldn't go to restaurants (Even low density seating) if they didn't seem to turn air over well. I also didn't go bonkers on hand washing (not beyond any normal amount) because the whole hand wash thing seemed like nonsense. Not for other things, but for covid (each definitive article that I could find would talk about covid found on surfaces and state that it couldn't be cultured).

Then, the aerosol thing started up with graphics of heavy breathing joggers leaving a pepe le pew stream of aerosol killing people in mass numbers behind them. Except that the actual medical sites here suspected droplets being responsible.

So, I didn't wash my hands, I didn't take any precautions outside (reveling in not wearing masks when I wasn't taking right in someone's face) and none of us got covid.

But it has irritated me the entire time that what seems to get people *really* sick is droplets and duration. I have no idea why turning air over isn't something discussed more. If the air is turned over in a location that literally just infected a bunch of people, but the offender is gone - presume the air turned over every half hour or hour - the location is "clean" within that time duration, and maybe less as the density of the virus drops.

If the air is still (like nursing homes, etc), you get enormous severe case rates and death (pre-vaccine).

It's senseless.

(I didn't just decide the hand washing was nonsense because it made me feel good, I watched all of the retail workers and mailmen, and none of them were getting sick in any number above "background". The mailman stopped wearing gloves and pulled his mask down here within two weeks. If he's touching a zillion mail pieces, why am I washing four?). The NY Times quietly mentioned in *may of 2020* that the CDC advised that hand washing may have no practical effect because transmission from surface contact or touch was not documentable, and they also suspected outdoor transmission was less than 3% of total cases. )

But everyone is washing their hands and feeling fine if they're sitting 6 feet from someone in a restaurant. no thanks.

[Warb]

There is another aspect that forty or fifty years ago there were more jobs available. A budding apprentice could reasonably expect a choice of several job offers. Today we have the situation where students are required to remain at school for longer and even university graduates are not guaranteed work on completing their degree. In fact a high percentage of graduates never use the degree they studied (I don't recall the figures, but it is high).

There are many reasons for the apparent lack of jobs, for example technology has replaced people, business wants to make more money - how many checkout staff have been replaced by self-service checkouts or telephone services that have far fewer staff and long wait times - and small businesses who employed a bunch of people have been replaced with far bigger companies with proportionally fewer staff. The economies of scale, which are required to service our ever growing population, also mean that fewer people are required to provide a far larger output. Additionally the western world has lost much of its "manual labour" employment, for example not only does it take far fewer people to build a car when machines do so much, but the unfortunate fallout of the wage wars and constant strikes of the 70's (I'm talking about the UK where I grew up) was that most manufacturing, certainly "heavy industry" is now fuelling the growth of the Asian countries so there are fewer factories needing staff in western countries.

The education aspect is also interesting. When I was young, few people (relatively) went to university. Those who did were largely people who had chosen a profession and were studying a specific subject to allow them to follow that chosen career. There were, of course, a fair number of people doing it for the experience, or to delay getting a job, or because parents expected it, but by and large it was still "career related". Since then there has been a shift in "belief", and now it as seen as a "right" to go to university, and something that (largely speaking) everyone should do. As a result, and I see this locally, kids are picking courses that they can get in to, from both HSC result and financial viewpoints, but which they have almost no interest in and certainly no intention of adopting as a career. The courses themselves have also changed, seemingly becoming less "subject" focussed. I suspect that this may be an attempt to make the course fit with the modern workplace, the courses being designed to fit with "modern jobs", but perhaps it has also made the courses narrower when it comes to applicability to a career? The old approach of a degree in chemistry (followed, if required, by a more specialised PhD) has been replaced with a degree in "environmental oceanic chemistry" (made up name!) that is next to useless for any other career path, even one based in some other branch of chemistry. The trouble with a vocational degree, when selected at a young age based on "what course can I get in to?", is that a very small change of career direction renders that qualification useless. Note here that many aspects of a qualification, attention to detail, ability to learn and think etc., are obviously always worthwhile, but they don't change the fact that under analysis that degree was never used in the workplace.

One final point, as an employer, is that finding suitable candidates is very hard. I see many complaints in media reports about people being forced in to part-time work, but it's actually very hard (at least here in rural NSW) to find someone who wants to work full time. We currently have 6 staff (all permanent not contract), none of whom work full time and none of whom will work any additional hours on a regular basis. There are various reasons for this, not least the fact that if they work too many hours they lose Centrelink benefits, but it is also a lifestyle choice. That choice is even more extreme in younger people. As discussed previously, perhaps they see us oldies not working but still having houses and cars, and they believe their lives should be the same.......?

[Warb]

Something still not being given anywhere near enough attention to in this whole schemozzle is similar to what I have been rabbiting on in the dust forum about for years and that is the issue of "forced fresh air ventilation".

Can I say here that Australia generally has absolutely no understanding of anything to do with air movement. I've seen roof-top evaporative coolers ("swampies") being used with all doors and windows shut. I've seen very expensive apartments in Sydney with ducted air con with NO RETURN PATH so internal doors slam shut and are hard to re-open, and the air conditioner does nothing. I even know of one very expensive apartment where the indoor unit is in a small cupboard in the middle of the apartment, has no return ducts, and the door surrounds and vents in to that cupboard have been sealed to "reduce the noise". If you open the cupboard door every other door in the apartment slams shut!!!

My own house had ducted air con installed by "professionals" when it was built, and was much the same as above. No return ducts didn't matter because we never shut any internal doors, but I had to cut out the bottom section of the door to the internal unit and replace them with brass mesh......

[BobL]

Yes I have a similar experience.
I spent about 30 years of my working life at Unis and research Institutes involved with designing, building and using dust free clean labs.
In the very first one I was involved with the sparky wired the fan backwards - it still ran but with about 80% less air flow than spec.

The biggest lab was 400m^2 and involved some space that was nominally 100x cleaner than Hospital Operating theatres. The Aussie engineers adding to this project were solid blokes but out of their depths. In teh end we brought an international consultant out from the to school them up and he did a fantastic job so we got pretty close to what we were asking for. The Aussie engineers did not like being told but when that project won an Australian Engineering award for innovation all was forgiven.

The other thing that sits alongside return air paths are the sizes of "fresh air intake paths". Most systems have fresh air intake paths that are much too small - trying to save money on AC costs I guess. this will have to change.

[Warb]

And now things are getting even more interesting. The Federal Government, and today more importantly (for me) the NSW government, have specifically linked relaxation of lockdowns and increased freedom to vaccination rates, irrespective of other factors. Wow. Guess what? We are already getting asked by people to provide their 2nd doses early - as early as 3 or 4 weeks from the first dose, which these people believe is OK because the government have rushed the second doses through in area's of concern.

What does this actually mean? Well, the data shows that the greatest protection is gained from 2 doses spaced 12 weeks apart, which was the original recommendation. Further studies have shown that the decrease in protection by reducing the spacing to 9 weeks is relatively minimal, and the UK has already done this. The logic is that the trade-off between a slightly reduced level of protection and a reduction in the spread of delta, during an outbreak, is worthwhile. Where it gets interesting is that whilst an August 2021 (as yet unreviewed) study suggests that there is no massive drop in efficacy in having the second dose at the 9 week mark, earlier (reviewed) studies have shown that efficacy does drop quite a large amount if you go _much_ earlier than that 9 week point. In fact one published study indicated that 2 doses 3 weeks apart gave only 55% protection. Better than nothing, especially for vulnerable people in a major outbreak, but hardly a recipe for a safe future for all.

So for AZ, rushing 2nd doses just to get the numbers up could be a recipe for trouble down the line!!

Having said that, what I'm reading about the mu variant, which will doubtless be followed by even bigger and better strains, suggests that it might all be rather pointless anyway. Interesting times!

[Bushmiller]

Having said that, what I'm reading about the mu variant, which will doubtless be followed by even bigger and better strains, suggests that it might all be rather pointless anyway. Interesting times!

Warb

The Delta variant is (was) the most virulent of the strains until now. Could you expand on this "mu" variant, of which I am unaware?

Regards
Paul

[Warb]

Warb

The Delta variant is (was) the most virulent of the strains until now. Could you expand on this "mu" variant, of which I am unaware?

Regards
Paul

The virus is undergoing mutations all the time. The mutations are in the form of changes to the genetic code of the virus, and each variant carries one or more of these genetic changes. As variants are discovered, their genetic code is investigated and variants that have combinations of the mutations that have already been seen to cause problems are followed. When these variants show combinations that are likely to cause problems, and they start to pop up in numbers, the WHO designates them as a "variant of interest" - though I suspect "concern" might be more appropriate!

Mu first appeared, I believe, in South America. It has the genetic mutations for fast transmission, and potentially to allow it to evade the immune responses from the current vaccines (or natural immunity). At one point it comprised quite a large proportion of the cases of covid in Colombia and possibly other South American countries, and has been detected in much of the US. At this point it is still rated as less of a threat than delta, and is in fact "losing market share" to delta. The point of interest for me is that it carries the mutations for fast spread and (I can't think of a good way to express this) "resistance to immunity", which means that whilst delta is top dog at the moment, once vaccination removes some of delta's advantage there is already at least one more variant on the bench awaiting its time....

[woodPixel]

Ironic isn't it.

We stop a virus that out-competes Mu with a vaccine, therefore giving Mu room to propagate.

We can't win :(

[woodhutt]

What happened to the lambda variant currently prevalent in (I believe) Peru? We seem to have skipped to the mu variant. At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.
Pete

[Warb]

What happened to the lambda variant currently prevalent in (I believe) Peru? We seem to have skipped to the mu variant. At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.
Pete

This is an evolutionary process. Different variants are springing up all the time, in everyone who has covid. Most of those variants will never even be discovered, as they will not make it beyond the body in which they developed. To get a name, the variant has to be detected, then identified as a new strain, then shown (genetically) to have traits that make it in some way interesting, and then to appear in sufficient numbers and sites/countries to warrant naming.

Lambda is C.37
Mu is B.1.621
Delta is B.1.617.2

By the format of those numbers it can be seen that there are a great many variants!!

C.1.2 is another variant currently being discussed because it also has many of the "better" (for the virus, not us!) mutations, and apparently it has numerically more mutations than most other variants. However as of a couple of days ago I don't think it had a name, and was not a WHO "variant of interest".

The point of interest, to me at least, is that I'm still not sure that we, either as individuals or as a species, have truly grasped the enormity of the situation. We've developed vaccines that provide some protection against some strains of the virus, and are then glibly talking about "opening up" and returning to our pre-covid existence. Is that ever going to be the case? As soon as we start to ramp up international travel, those variants that have mutated to evade our immunity (vaccine or natural) will start to spread again....

On another note, I read with great "amusement" that you can buy a black-market covid vaccination certificate online already. It's scary to think that there are people with so little respect for other people's health that they would sell, or buy, a fake certificate that has been specifically designed to keep society safe from a killer disease. In my darker moments I find myself wondering if we even deserve to survive......

[Warb]

At this rate, the Greek alphabet will soon run out of letters.

I forgot to say, when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet we can do what the marketeers do, and start adding extra bits to make it sound better.

How about "Delta Ultimate Platinum Pro"!!

[D.W.]

We're going through frats next.

Sigma Chi

Delta Delta Delta

Tau Kappa Epsilon

[woodhutt]

On another note, I read with great "amusement" that you can buy a black-market covid vaccination certificate online already. It's scary to think that there are people with so little respect for other people's health that they would sell, or buy, a fake certificate that has been specifically designed to keep society safe from a killer disease. In my darker moments I find myself wondering if we even deserve to survive......

This was always going to be on the cards, I believe. The moment they began to consider the idea of covid 'passports' for international travel, the forgers must have begun sharpening their pencils. The blessing is that, it doesn't matter what sort of passport another country has issued, we not obliged to let them in.
Pete

[woodhutt]

I forgot to say, when we get to the end of the Greek alphabet we can do what the marketeers do, and start adding extra bits to make it sound better.

How about "Delta Ultimate Platinum Pro"!!

Problem is Warb, some idiots would find that attractive and want it!
Pete

[Warb]

Problem is Warb, some idiots would find that attractive and want it!
Pete

Evolution in action.......

[Warb]

This was always going to be on the cards, I believe. The moment they began to consider the idea of covid 'passports' for international travel, the forgers must have begun sharpening their pencils. The blessing is that, it doesn't matter what sort of passport another country has issued, we not obliged to let them in.
Pete

So the first rule is to discard all the nonsense about privacy. After that it becomes much easier - a central database records the vaccination status of an individual, together with a mug shot. That individual has a QR code, or a badge, or simply a number. The "inspector" has a scanner, into which the QR code (or whatever) is entered, the central database is queried and the mugshot is displayed together with vaccination status. No forgery is possible, short of hacking the central database or plastic surgery to change the appearance to match someone else. I believe the health of the population in general, whether an entire country or the other customers in a restaurant, outweighs any claims to "privacy" either relating to vaccination status or wearing a mask on religious grounds.

As you say, any paper or "image" based system will be forged, as will anything that is stored on a device. However there is no requirement for any of that, because I doubt many airport security installations, restaurants or any other venues don't have internet connections available. Live queries with a mug shot avoids all those issues!

[GraemeCook]

We're going through frats next.

Sigma Chi

Delta Delta Delta

Tau Kappa Epsilon

We haven't got them here, yet. Which is the most contagious?