Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[Bushmiller]

WP

Those gas prices for the US will, long term, have a significant repercussion on their car market. The American gas guzzler was never of concern while the prices for fuel were low, but that looks to be changing. Europe, where fuel prices have always been high, tended to have small engined cars with better fuel economies. Australia is somewhere in between these two extremes, but there will be an increasing tendency away from large engines. This may well serve to kickstart the hesitant conversion to EVs, although much will depend on exactly how they are taxed in both the short and long terms.

Regards
Paul

[yvan]

In his last post, Graeme mentioned the inelasticity of power demand because, in the longer term, domestic consumers are unlikely to change their power consumption in response to high energy prices. This made me ask myself what practical steps could be taken in a household to stabilize and, hopefully reduce consumption? Obviously, the saving of one household wouldn't even be as drop in the proverbial ocean but, repeated in thousands of households, these would have to have an effect on demand.

Small steps like change all light bulbs to LED's, switch lights off in unoccupied rooms etc etc.

Any suggestions ?

Cheers,
Yvan

[Bushmiller]

In his last post, Graeme mentioned the inelasticity of power demand because, in the longer term, domestic consumers are unlikely to change their power consumption in response to high energy prices. This made me ask myself what practical steps could be taken in a household to stabilize and, hopefully reduce consumption? Obviously, the saving of one household wouldn't even be as drop in the proverbial ocean but, repeated in thousands of households, these would have to have an effect on demand.

Small steps like change all light bulbs to LED's, switch lights off in unoccupied rooms etc etc.

Any suggestions ?

Cheers,
Yvan

Yvan

What you have said is quite correct. In our household we have an arrangement where SWMBO goes around from room to room turning lights on and I follow behind her turning them off! :rolleyes: I am am not convinced that is how team work should function, but that is how it is.

Lights, particularly LEDs, consume very little power, so not so much is saved there despite it all adding up over a long term. However, the high consumption devices, such as air con, can make quite a difference. They should be restricted to the rooms you are using and maybe, during winter, turn the setting down a couple of degrees (the opposite in summer of course) and perhaps wear a sweater. As Graeme has said, people are stubborn and generally wish to continue exactly as they have been without any concession or compromise so those people hike up the temp on thier air cons and continue to walk around shirtless in their stubbies. That may change a little when they get their next electricity bill, although Graeme thinks not: He may well be right. Such change only occurs over a long period of time.

My daughter works for a division of Schneider Electric that examines and recommends ways of saving on electricity bills for large companies. Bunnings is one of their clients. Last time I was in one of their two Toowoomba stores there was a large TV screen showing real time electricty they were generating both for that individual store and their network of stores as a whole. Clearly they, in an industrial context, are aware there are savings to be made: Indeed need to be made. Very interesting. I have noted that it is never very warm in their stores: A true wharehouse.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

This is probably another indictment of Australia's foreign ownership policy:

Gas exporters mostly foreign owned (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/gas-exporters-mostly-foreign-owned/ar-AAYnuxc?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=2af1a287f18249389cdddc40d17269b8)

In particular I took this extract.

"The institute’s analysis also shows the top 20 ASX-listed companies are on average 80 per cent foreign owned.
Overseas investors have a 51 per cent stake in Telstra, despite a 35 per cent cap. Qantas is 62 per cent under foreign ownership despite a 49 per cent limit on overseas investors.
Australia’s mining industry was found to be 90 per cent foreign owned, including BHP – founded in NSW – which was 94 foreign owned.
The Commonwealth Bank is 81 per cent foreign owned."


It does explain the reluctance of the Gas companies to make supply available to Australia, but not why there is no condition where fixed supply is not complusory for the Australian domestic market.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

An article explaining how much retaillers are able to increase their charges to the consumer and why some retiallers are attempting to divest their clients so they don't go bust. There is also some suggestions for conserving useage, which Yvan may find useful.

How much are power prices increasing by? Why are they going up? What can I do to save on electricity? (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/how-much-are-power-prices-increasing-by-why-are-they-going-up-what-can-i-do-to-save-on-electricity/ar-AAYmOUp?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=cbb1cc43d0eb44a4be546cd787f284e9)

As you can see, it is comples with the rules varying for different regions. I assume that this increase is just for the one year and the following year it could go up by the same amount again.

However, it doesn't explain how some retaillers are able to double their prices legally. There is an anomally there that perhaps somebody else can explain.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

However, it doesn't explain how some retailers are able to double their prices legally. There is an anomaly there that perhaps somebody else can explain.

It's the same reeking trick that employers use with part-time casual people (who are 'let go' on the day they cost one cent more) or sham-contractors (who provide the same trivial service year-on-year, But Aren't Employees) . They pretend that somehow the customer is on a 'contract' and at the end of that they are no longer 'their customer'... if the 'client' comes back, its a new contract and nothing needs to be adhered to.

Oh! It's not renewed, its a new contract. :cool::rolleyes:

[woodPixel]

I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb, E27 Light Bulb, Multiple Colors, RGBCW, 810 Lumens, 60W Equivalent, Compatible with Alexa, Google Assistant and IFTTT, No Hub Required (2 Pieces) : Amazon.com.au: Lighting (https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B07MZPSWVR/)

They are fantastic fun!

In the lounge, kitchen and hall I've set up six programs - Full Bore, Daytime, Evening Pre, Cooking, Dining, Evening Post, Reading and Movie.

Each has been set to a light colour (from 100% white, to a nice yellow/orange, to rather dim). Its a widget on everyone's phone. Press the button and BOOP! it changes the pattern over about a second (its not an instant flash change!). At night, just before bed, I boop the button for "Full bore" and flip off the wall switch. It will act just like an ordinary bulb (9W, 60 watt equiv).

One can also set up other devices to interact with it, such as in-wall plugs, switches, thermometers, light sensors, etc, etc. It can go all rather mad and nerdy. I've stuck to very simple routines and tweaked them over a week.

I've found the colours imbue an absolutely lovely temperament into the house at these selected times. I don't use their colour feature, just the white to yellow/orange range for lighting. I'm sure if I should ever host a party then I will do something braver :)

Yes, they rely on the internet and a company cloud-based server to send-and-receive coms to.... which was a risk should the company vaporise, but I've begun helping out on two open-source projects which reverse engineered the protocols and server coms in order to make third party aps and solutions. It was easy :)

512965

[Bushmiller]

For years QLD has had the cheapest wholesale electricity. Apparently that is not now the case:

Qld warned of possible power outages (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/qld-warned-of-possible-power-outages/ar-AAYom3m?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=a79fa5c4a0ed44d1ab6c2b24d008df99)

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

An update on the power crisis in QLD and NSW. No load shedding last night or this morning, but not out of the woods by a long shot. The following article shows the percentage of foreign ownership of the gas companies!! Holy smokes!

Chris Bowen faces calls to slug gas companies with windfall profits tax (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/06/13/windfall-profits-tax-gas-industry/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220614_with%20Tag)

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Everything has a downside unfortunately Researchers Use Smart Light Bulbs to Infiltrate Networks - Security News (trendmicro.com) (https://www.trendmicro.com/vinfo/us/security/news/cybercrime-and-digital-threats/researchers-use-smart-light-bulbs-to-infiltrate-networks)

[GraemeCook]

. ... Lights, particularly LEDs, consume very little power, ...

My daughter works for a division of Schneider Electric that examines and recommends ways of saving on electricity bills for large companies. Bunnings is one of their clients. Last time I was in one of their two Toowoomba stores there was a large TV screen showing real time electricty they were generating both for that individual store and their network of stores as a whole. Clearly they, in an industrial context, are aware there are savings to be made: Indeed need to be made. Very interesting. I have noted that it is never very warm in their stores: A true wharehouse.

Regards
Paul


Go into any large retailer and they will be extremely brightly lit - Bunnings, Coles, Woolies, etc. The reason is simple; there is a measurable correlation between light levels and sales.

And a negative correlation, albeit in a narrow band, between temperature and sales - Marketing 101.

[GraemeCook]

... I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb (https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B07MZPSWVR/) ...


You have got me worried, woody.

Remember the old cartoon about someone like me in the Apple Store and the sales assistant is saying "... From this point on, Sir, the smartphones are smarter than you."

Will I now fear the light globe display?

[woodPixel]

Everything has a downside unfortunately Researchers Use Smart Light Bulbs to Infiltrate Networks - Security News (trendmicro.com) (https://www.trendmicro.com/vinfo/us/security/news/cybercrime-and-digital-threats/researchers-use-smart-light-bulbs-to-infiltrate-networks)


You have got me worried, woody.

Remember the old cartoon about someone like me in the Apple Store and the sales assistant is saying "... From this point on, Sir, the smartphones are smarter than you."

Will I now fear the light globe display?

Ah! Beat you to it!

I put on onto it own wifi network, installed a packet analyser and prodded the bulb into doing things it wasn't intended to do. Unfortunately I couldn't find any microphones or other Secret Squirrel stuff, but there is a flashable firmware. I hate closed source products (security via obscurity is not secure) and I wrote to the company asking that they release the source so we can have some proper fun with it. The company seems receptive to this (I've a few links to two github projects if interested)... Home Assistant (https://www.home-assistant.io/)

I like these bulbs due to their efficiency and longevity. Of course, at $10 each, they may cost more than a traditional bulb in total (incandescent + #kw/h over lifetime) but it makes me feel good that I'm saving a few watts.

[GraemeCook]

In his last post, Graeme mentioned the inelasticity of power demand because, in the longer term, domestic consumers are unlikely to change their power consumption in response to high energy prices. ...

Small steps like change all light bulbs to LED's, switch lights off in unoccupied rooms etc etc.

Any suggestions ?

Cheers,
Yvan


Paul is right; lighting does not use much power and heating uses heaps. Increase your thermostat by one degree and the increased electriity would have kept all lights running 24/7. In a domestic setting, by far the best thing you can do to save energy is by improving insulation; the world leaders are in northern europe - Germany, Scandinavia, etc. Part of the drive is called "passivhaus" and well worth reading about. To achieve those standards your probably need:

R=10 insulation in ceilings,
R=7 insulation in walls,
R=5 insulation in floors,
Double glazing on all windows,
Triple glazing on those windows facing the pole,
No air leaks.

Then you can heat a large house including domestic water for less than 15 kWh per square metre per year.

Compare that to an "average" Australian house that might have R=3 insulation in ceiling, and nothing else.

You are in Hobart; your cheapest options for heaing are:

Cheapest = wood heater, provided you chose an efficient model that is properly installed and maintained
Next Cheapest = heat pump,
Third cheapest; There is no third cheapest, all other options are expensive.

We installed gas heating about ten years ago, which almost made sense then, but is now very expensive.

[havabeer69]

I bought four of these bulbs recently and will buy more soon: meross Smart Wi-Fi LED Bulb, E27 Light Bulb, Multiple Colors, RGBCW, 810 Lumens, 60W Equivalent, Compatible with Alexa, Google Assistant and IFTTT, No Hub Required (2 Pieces) : Amazon.com.au: Lighting (https://www.amazon.com.au/gp/product/B07MZPSWVR/)

They are fantastic fun!

In the lounge, kitchen and hall I've set up six programs - Full Bore, Daytime, Evening Pre, Cooking, Dining, Evening Post, Reading and Movie.

Each has been set to a light colour (from 100% white, to a nice yellow/orange, to rather dim). Its a widget on everyone's phone. Press the button and BOOP! it changes the pattern over about a second (its not an instant flash change!). At night, just before bed, I boop the button for "Full bore" and flip off the wall switch. It will act just like an ordinary bulb (9W, 60 watt equiv).

One can also set up other devices to interact with it, such as in-wall plugs, switches, thermometers, light sensors, etc, etc. It can go all rather mad and nerdy. I've stuck to very simple routines and tweaked them over a week.

I've found the colours imbue an absolutely lovely temperament into the house at these selected times. I don't use their colour feature, just the white to yellow/orange range for lighting. I'm sure if I should ever host a party then I will do something braver :)

Yes, they rely on the internet and a company cloud-based server to send-and-receive coms to.... which was a risk should the company vaporise, but I've begun helping out on two open-source projects which reverse engineered the protocols and server coms in order to make third party aps and solutions. It was easy :)

512965

I found the exact same globes (re-branded as Arlec) in our local bunnings in the electrical specials bin, they had HEAPS of them, down from $25 to $10. I've kitted out the whole house with them temporarily for just over $3 a globe. Also slightly brighter at 1050 lumens

Arlec 12W 1050lm RGB Colour Mode Grid Connect Smart LED B22 Globe - 3 Pack - Bunnings Australia (https://www.bunnings.com.au/arlec-12w-1050lm-rgb-colour-mode-grid-connect-smart-led-b22-globe-3-pack_p0283331)

event the bunnings full price 3 packs works out ALOT cheaper then those amazon ones which are only a two pack.

just depends which giant company you wish you have your money, Amazon or Bunnings

[Bushmiller]

The potential power shortage continues tonight and tomorrow:

Five states face power uncertainty as AEMO warns of maximum load interruptions (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/five-states-face-power-uncertainty-as-aemo-warns-of-maximum-load-interruptions/ar-AAYqBei?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6d06ae4389f44f2db03e89e5e1a5cfe0)

I did extract this comment:

"The cost of power has been rising so rapidly that AEMO stepped in to place a cap on the wholesale price of electricity in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.AEMO set the price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour.
"As a consequence, available offers from generators reduced, contributing to a forecast supply shortfall," AEMO said yesterday."

My understanding is that the elevated average price ( around $600/MWhr) has been constant for a week and that has triggered AEMO to institute a cap of $300/MWhr. This is something of a double edged sword in that while it does limit the price, it also means some generators (primarily some of the less efficient gas generators) say we have no gas for sale at that price and this causes a shortage: No real surprise there: Be careful what you wish for.

However, and I don't really no how this is achieved, AEMO then waves a big stick and says "you have to generate." I would have thought that was an impasse. The fact is that last night there was no load shedding.

Regards
Paul

[yvan]

Tonight's 7pm Tasmanian ABC News: power shortages expected...

For the life of me I cannot figure out how there could be power shortages in Tasmania!
Dams haven't burst and there has been significant rain over the past few months to replenish them.

I am cynical enough to think that the power generated is fed into the national grid at very attractive prices thank you very much, creating a "shortage" in the state.

Energy prices have become a political issue. And, when prices are capped - another form of subsidy - in time they inevitably go back to what they should have been. It is when this happens that it will hit the fan.

I'm off me soap box...

Cheers
Yvan

[ian]

The potential power shortage continues tonight and tomorrow:

Five states face power uncertainty as AEMO warns of maximum load interruptions (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/five-states-face-power-uncertainty-as-aemo-warns-of-maximum-load-interruptions/ar-AAYqBei?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6d06ae4389f44f2db03e89e5e1a5cfe0)

I did extract this comment:

"The cost of power has been rising so rapidly that AEMO stepped in to place a cap on the wholesale price of electricity in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.AEMO set the price cap for consumers at $300 a megawatt hour.
"As a consequence, available offers from generators reduced, contributing to a forecast supply shortfall," AEMO said yesterday."

My understanding is that the elevated average price ( around $600/MWhr) has been constant for a week and that has triggered AEMO to institute a cap of $300/MWhr. This is something of a double edged sword in that while it does limit the price, it also means some generators (primarily some of the less efficient gas generators) say we have no gas for sale at that price and this causes a shortage: No real surprise there: Be careful what you wish for.
Paul
Forgive my cynicism, but to me it looks like the AEMO may have been gamed by "persons yet to become known"

Attached is a snap shot from 20:40, June 14, 2022 for Tasmania.
You can clearly see the price spikes >$15,000/MWh over the past day or so.

Don't know about you, but a spot price above $15,000/MWh -- in a state that just opens a tap a bit wider to generate power -- suggests to me that some sort of gaming is occurring.
Perhaps, the Market participants have twigged that if they don't bid a price (to generate any power) over the next 5 minute period, the only price offered will apply to all the market participants.

https://www.woodworkforums.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=513051&d=1655207563

513051

[ian]

Tonight's 7pm Tasmanian ABC News: power shortages expected...

For the life of me I cannot figure out how there could be power shortages in Tasmania!
Dams haven't burst and there has been significant rain over the past few months to replenish them.

I am cynical enough to think that the power generated is fed into the national grid at very attractive prices thank you very much, creating a "shortage" in the state.
Yvan
As far as I know the capacity of the BassLink is a meagre 630 MW, around the same as half the demand trough in the chart I posted above.
What I don't understand is how such a relatively low capacity interconnecting cable can lead to potential power shortages in Tasmania.

[BobL]

Meanwhile in WA, us "Croods" are nice and warm in our well lit caves.
This arvo was nice and sunny so I left the coffee machine on and ran the clothes dryer for a good part of the afternoon in sympathy.

And plans have just been announced to cease state owned coal fired electrical production 7 years from now.

When the then Premier Alan Carpenter brought in the 15% minimum availability of WA extracted gas for WA domestic operations in 2005 he was called lots of names not the least of which was "socialist".
Suddenly he's looking very "market responsible" and even the former Liberal Premier, Colin Barnet, agrees it was a good move.
There's so few current opposition around no one was available for comment.
There was a poll run on Perth ABC radio on should WA Gas be share with you lot in the east but I didn't listen for long enough to hear the final outcome but the caller feedback was positive.
Shame about the distance.
I had to write this as we don't often get a chance :D :p

[Chris Parks]

Paul is right; lighting does not use much power and heating uses heaps. Increase your thermostat by one degree and the increased electriity would have kept all lights running 24/7. In a domestic setting, by far the best thing you can do to save energy is by improving insulation; the world leaders are in northern europe - Germany, Scandinavia, etc. Part of the drive is called "passivhaus" and well worth reading about. To achieve those standards your probably need:

R=10 insulation in ceilings,
R=7 insulation in walls,
R=5 insulation in floors,
Double glazing on all windows,
Triple glazing on those windows facing the pole,
No air leaks.

Then you can heat a large house including domestic water for less than 15 kWh per square metre per year.

Compare that to an "average" Australian house that might have R=3 insulation in ceiling, and nothing else.

You are in Hobart; your cheapest options for heaing are:

Cheapest = wood heater, provided you chose an efficient model that is properly installed and maintained
Next Cheapest = heat pump,
Third cheapest; There is no third cheapest, all other options are expensive.

We installed gas heating about ten years ago, which almost made sense then, but is now very expensive.

I am going to install a few Infra Red panels after a trial run to prove they do what is claimed and they do. They primarily heat the mass of the building and its contents and then this heats the air as a secondary function so turning them on and expecting to get hot instantly is not going to happen. I have been watching the data coming off our solar panels and our solar is still exporting when the IR panels are operating so we are banking the heat in the building and releasing it at night by programming the thermostat to turn the panels off. Our house was insulated in the walls and ceilings which is better than most but I have said it here before Australian houses are generally leaky tents compared to those in cold climes overseas. Pelmets and well designed curtain systems will also save a lot of heat going through single pane windows.

[FenceFurniture]

Ten years ago we mainly had NiMH and NiCd - who knows the future?

And Li-Ion batteries in tools seem to retain their charge capacity very well for about 7 or 8 years, and then they enter the death spiral and die quite quickly. Will tesla's do the same?I purchased my Makita Li-Ion cordless kit 12 years ago, and Li-Ion was well and truly established by then. I think losing the charge capacity may have more to do with inbuilt obsolescence rather than the ability to perform. AFAIK, Makita batteries have a chip that says "No" after a given set of circumstances arrives (the number of recharges??). If this is true, then the marketing doesn't work on me because I only ever buy third party replacement batteries. Cheaper, and with a significantly longer lifespan.

[Beardy]

I purchased my Makita Li-Ion cordless kit 12 years ago, and Li-Ion was well and truly established by then. I think losing the charge capacity may have more to do with inbuilt obsolescence rather than the ability to perform. AFAIK, Makita batteries have a chip that says "No" after a given set of circumstances arrives (the number of recharges??). If this is true, then the marketing doesn't work on me because I only ever buy third party replacement batteries. Cheaper, and with a significantly longer lifespan.

Interesting, I have found aftermarket batteries to be rubbish and only use genuine. Come to think of it I can’t recall ever seeing any aftermarket batteries on the building sites.
But if you have found a good supplier and they are doing the job that is great.

[Bushmiller]

Paul
Forgive my cynicism, but to me it looks like the AEMO may have been gamed by "persons yet to become known"

Attached is a snap shot from 20:40, June 14, 2022 for Tasmania.
You can clearly see the price spikes >$15,000/MWh over the past day or so.

Don't know about you, but a spot price above $15,000/MWh -- in a state that just opens a tap a bit wider to generate power -- suggests to me that some sort of gaming is occurring.
Perhaps, the Market participants have twigged that if they don't bid a price (to generate any power) over the next 5 minute period, the only price offered will apply to all the market participants.



513051

Ian

Your comments are not without some substance. As we know, it is a competitive market and there are rules set down for this market, which the "players" must follow. Transgressions are, and have been, taken to court. There was one very significant event about five years ago that comes to mind. However that is not to say that the rules are satisfactory. Unfortunately the "banker" can change the rules when he feels like the game is not going his way. The players cannot do that when things are not going their way. While I have some reseravtions about the rules and the way they can be used I find myself thinking that this is what was set up in the first place.

For many years it was a battle for a generator to even break even. Many was the year we considered ourselves lucky to be getting $30/MWhr and that was certainly not viable, but we persisted, because there was no other option. Times have changed and we are now at a point where a generator can make a good return on billion dollar investment. We mainly hear about these price spikes to the max: Now around the $15,000/MWhr but little is made, in the press, of the times the price goes to -$1000/MWhr for protracted periods up to five hours on occasions. The units are throttled back to their safe minimum load, sure, but this could be a couple of hundred MWs. That certainly takes a bit hit to a profitable enterprise.

In recent times there have been a couple of significant changes in the rules. The first is that bidding is now done on a five minute segment rather than the half hour segment. The effect of this is to limit the time a price spike remains effective. A price spike now lasts normally no more than five minutes. Prior to this generators were paid that high price for at least thirty minutes. This represents a saving of five times arguably. That is fair enough, although the actual bidding process does take a little longer, but that is what it is. If the old system was still in place n todays market the average price might well be in the thousands/MWhr!

The second major change is to availability. A generator must always convey to AEMO their availability as soon as there is any change. The reason for the change must accomany that adjustment.At any power station there are two groups that come in to play: The operators and the traders. The operators are responsible for availability while the traders dictate the pricing. If, for example, there are 500MW available, the first 200MW will be available at say $30MW, the next 200MW at $80 and the last 100MW at $300. These prices can be revised by the traders at any time. I suppose your cynicism around gaming has some foundation. It is a game that has been played for many years with the "banker" having the whip hand. Now the whip is in different hands and the players havn't forgotten the hurt. It is a vicious commercial market. I lay the blame squarely at the respective state governments who sild off their assest for a quick money grab. It is like a grazier selling off his breeding herd: He still wishes to grow cattle so now he has to buy back from the market and he is at their mercy.

One aspect that we have not emphasised for a long time is that the MW value is paid according to the last player in. So, if a gas generator comes in at $500/Mwhr, everybody gets $500/MWhr even if they only bid in at $30/MWhr.

For a long time I have thought, from my humble position of zero influence, that the market rules are outmoded and largely inappropriate. The recent turn of events in particular and really for the whole of this year have highlighted the inadequacy of the competitive market structure. All the problems we have described in previous posts as the holes in the swiss cheese lining up have served to exacerbate the problem.

So back to your orginal comment regarding "gaming." If there is any such activity ocurring, it is done within the scope of the rules. You can't flog the dog for years and not expect it to bite back when it gets the chance.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

A most interesting article that goes some way to explaining the "big hammer technique" but not completely.

Power companies accused of engineering crisis for profit (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/14/power-companies-accused-of-engineering-crisis-for-profit/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220615)

There is still a lot of hurt ahead of us to my mind.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Paul
Forgive my cynicism, but to me it looks like the AEMO may have been gamed by "persons yet to become known" ...


I think that you have been extremely perceptive, Ian, and from a distance of 10,000 kms.

This mornings ABC News alleged that certain unnamed electricity producers including 5 government owned powerplants (also not named) were (allegedly) deliberately reducing supply to the grid and forcing up prices and creating chaos. It was "justified" by a garbled argument about (alleged) disatisfaction with long term margins in a competitive market.

Looking at those graphs, I must also wonder if there is also some other sinister force involved. eg A hedge fund manipulating and already distorted market? The latter is guess work. Remember when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the world silver market in 1980 and forced the price from $6 to $50 per ounce.

[Chris Parks]

Game on Australian Energy Market Operator suspends spot market for wholesale electricity - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/aemo-suspends-energy-spot-market-amid-power-crisis/101154054)

[havabeer69]

Game on Australian Energy Market Operator suspends spot market for wholesale electricity - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-15/aemo-suspends-energy-spot-market-amid-power-crisis/101154054)


yep. wierd times ahead.

so part of the reason for market suspension is that aemo/NER needs a certain capacity as a spare, 1500MW is the number banted about, and at one point today we had 38MW spare in the grid. soooo they have to suspend the market to actually keep a certain safety factor built into the grid by peeling back peoples contribution to the spot market.

Generators also won't get compensated for the last revenue due to the 300MW cap (its in the rules, and you're made aware of this when getting your license to generate). If you needed a bit of plant to get you back into service to meet the demand, you can apply for costs for that, or if you needed to buy some extra coal to meet the demand you can apply for those loses but not actual lost revenue.

[woodPixel]

Some things that have been agitating me that few have seemed to consider:

South Atlantic Anomaly - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Atlantic_Anomaly)
The Collapse of an Atlantic Ocean Current Would Ripple Across The World, Says Study (https://www.sciencealert.com/the-collapse-of-an-atlantic-ocean-current-would-ripple-across-the-world-says-study)

There is, on top of these two interesting reads another that I read in a geology paper that found the inner working of the planet are changing and doing something odd in the south Atlantic. Apparently the magnetic field itself is changing (as it ever does, but this is "added change")

Earth’s magnetic poles not likely to flip: st | EurekAlert! (https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955159)


Its curious to plug these together as the three sciences don't seem to be talking to each other.

What does this all mean? No idea. But for us Aussies it means wet wet wet.

[Bushmiller]

yep. wierd times ahead.

so part of the reason for market suspension is that aemo/NER needs a certain capacity as a spare, 1500MW is the number banted about, and at one point today we had 38MW spare in the grid. soooo they have to suspend the market to actually keep a certain safety factor built into the grid by peeling back peoples contribution to the spot market.

Generators also won't get compensated for the last revenue due to the 300MW cap (its in the rules, and you're made aware of this when getting your license to generate). If you needed a bit of plant to get you back into service to meet the demand, you can apply for costs for that, or if you needed to buy some extra coal to meet the demand you can apply for those loses but not actual lost revenue.

I slightly misled in an earlier post when I said the week of average prices around $600 (I think it was abou $580/MWhr)led to the cap of $300. Those average prices were contributary, but the final trigger was several hours around $9000/MWhrs with little prospect of the situation improving. I read an article just now that said this is the first time a cap has been invoked, but I recall a situation several years ago where the price hit Vol (an abbreviation for maximum volatility) for several hours and and the cap was invoked, but it was lifted almost as soon as the price volatility stabilised. Perhaps they are refering to a protracted period such as in force right now and not due to be lifted for another couple of days at least.

Once a generator is instructed to generate in these circumstances, out of pocket expenses can be claimed. Haveabeer mentioned extra coal and another example would be the burning of oil (oil support is normally only required to introduce a new mill and during the startup of a unit.) It is much more expensive than burning coal probably by a factor of up to five or six times depending on the cost of the coal. The oil is usually diesel fuel such as used in our private vehicles or trucks.

I suspect that gas generators may be able to claim fuel if the cost exceeds $300/MWhr, but not certain on that one.

The dire situation is expected to improve within the week I am told.

That 1500MW used to be 2000MW spinning reserve, but that was before the advent of the competitive market. The competitive market changed many things.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

A synopsis of where we are at with the electricity market: The spot market has been shut down and this article explains some of it at least. Not too many local providers making money from the misery.

AEMO has taken over the national energy market. Here's what that means (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/06/15/aemo-energy-market-explainer/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220616)

Regards
Paul

[ian]

HOWEVER
As I understand operation of the East Coast Gas market, the operator's "owners" borrowed the money to construct the LNG plants at 2% interest (or possibly an even lower rate), on-lent the funds to their Australian subsidiaries at 9% (or perhaps an even higher rate) -- meaning that the possibility of any acknowledged profit from their operations is remote, let alone the possibility that their operations might generate a "super profit".

[Mr Brush]

"The future has been cancelled due to lack of interest."

- Me, 2022

[woodPixel]

Doesnt help the perception of being ripped off when we are being actually ripped off....

Prime Minister says gas generators were '''gaming''' the energy crisis and threatening supply - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-17/prime-minister-says-gas-generators-gamed-crisis/101160492)

[Bushmiller]

While the "gaming" link in WP's post basically outlines the current situation I take issue with this statement by Albanese:

"Some generators withdrew from the market this week, after soaring power prices were capped, and were then compensated by the market operator when directed to pump power into the network."

To my mind this is not what those generators wanted. A $300 cap with expenses above cost is not what they were wanting at all. They were chasing several hundred dollars or a thousand dollars while the market was still in competitive mode. The trick would have been to keep the market high but beneath the threshhold that triggered cessation of the competitive market. It is true to say that those generators, that are the alleged culprits, misjudged that big time.

Regards
Paul

[yvan]

"The future has been cancelled due to lack of interest."

- Me, 2022

And, no need to turn the lights off cos there ain't no power !!! :D

[Glider]

I'm going to play Devil's Advocate here, so please don't go ballistic.

If the spot price of a power generator's inputs doubles or quadruples and their daytime output is crippled on a sunny day because rooftop solar has taken most of the load, what do they do? Company directors are required by law to act in the best interests of their company, not the customers', although the second follows the first. On the other hand, the government can't allow the economy to shut down due to a lack of power, so their only solution at present is to subsidise the power stations' losses. Blind Freddy could have seen the effect of solar rooftop on the daily demand curve which has weakened generators' profitability but the Ukraine situation is a Black Swan. Good engineering practice demands consideration of, and solutions to, catastrophic failure. Maybe AEMO war-gamed this current chaos, who knows?

What the feds have not done over the last twenty years is to frame energy transition policies which would provide certainty to both ends of the market. Only WA ensured there were provisions in place for LNG operators to supply their intra state needs. So NSW is planning to endanger the best agricultural land in the state to add capacity in a country which is the largest exporter of LNG in the world. Neither "the market" nor "technology" can solve the problems alone. We need the decision makers to heed the experts.

mick

[GraemeCook]

I'm going to play Devil's Advocate here, so please don't go ballistic. ...

Another way of arguing towards the same scenario as Mick, is in terms of classical economics as originally defined by Adam Smith, and later refined by Maynard Keynes and Paul Samuelson.

For almost 100 years from c.1900 the electricity industry was regarded as a natural monopoly and, to ensure equity, that monopoly was placed firmly in the hands of government agencies. It worked quite well, but eventually fell foul of the righteous right's mantra that "... the private sector can do it better ..." and the electricity agencies were largely privatised. This would have been fine if you had even competition. Mick's friend Blind Freddy would confirm that in no part of the electricity industry is there (near) perfect competition. Mainly you have oligopolies dealing with oligopsonies, each looking for an opportunity to shaft each other, or to join forces and shaft the end consumer - poor old Muggins.

The oligopolies and oligopsonies, most players are both, include:

Producers of raw materials - gas and coal companies,
Electricity producers,
Electricity distributers,
Electricity retailers.
Poor old Muggins at the end of the line is the only price taker.

The gentlemen of the righteous right absolutely fail to achnowledge that government control over such an imperfect market is necessary or desirable. "The invisible hand of the market will solve everything!". The Americans have traditionally had privatised "utilities" but have usually had very tight regulatory controls to ensure no one exploited their monopolistic position. Occasionally they have relaxed their controls, usually with disasterous consequences - eg the California electricity fiasco 20 years ago.

As Blind Freddy says "... The only thing that you learn from history, is that you learn nothing from history".

[GraemeCook]

With the current electricity shenanigans - as defined by the dictionary - there is absolutely nothing that Muggins can do except be shafted.

All the other players in the market have a vested interest in ensuring that truth never enters the public arena - something about "self incrimination". But I must be naive as I do not know how an innocent person or company can "self incriminate".

If we start with the premise that whatever we see in the media is someone's attempt to obfuscate or create fake news, then we will probably be somewhere near the truth. Perhaps there will be a Royal Commission in five years time.

[Chris Parks]

The energy market explained by Clarke & Dawe


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELaBzj7cn14&ab_channel=ClarkeAndDawe

[Bushmiller]

My wife was amused by the Clarke and Dawes skit: It seems nothing has moved on.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

The energy market explained by Clarke & DaweHA! Cracker Chris! Miss them badly.

[Bushmiller]

The AEMO price cap is effective at curtailing prices. This is a snap shot from yesterday. Note that the spot price was below the cap in some states.

513355

The central figures in bold type under RRP were indicative of what the market predicted if there was no cap in place. The RRP prior to 1750hrs is what actually happened. The figures on the map were the live prices for that five minute segment. While the cap has improved market stability, we are not out of the woods just yet.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

The energy market cap is due to be lifted at 0400hrs tomorrow (23/6/2022).

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

The energy market cap is due to be lifted at 0400hrs tomorrow (23/6/2022). ...


"... The only thing that you learn from history, is that you learn nothing from history".

:2tsup: or :((

[Bushmiller]

:2tsup: or :((

Graeme

I have toassume it is because there is more generation available. For example our second unit at Millmerran is back i/s following a scheduled outage. I know this because....I am the driver :wink: .

Just as an amusing aside, one of our senior personnel gave the following account as an analogy to the energy crisis using the ubiquitous milk market:


"I thought I would address the recent media coverage surrounding “rolling blackouts” using an analogy, to make it easier to explain to your family and friends.

The milk industry in Australia consists of 3 main types of milk:


Cow milk
Soy milk
Almond milk


The milk demand in Australia is usually satisfied by a healthy mix of cow, soy and almond milk.

Lately, the price of milk has been increasing significantly, due to increasing input costs:


Cows are getting more expensive…
Soy beans are getting more expensive…
Almonds have stayed the same price, but unfortunately there are not enough almonds to satisfy the massive demand for milk. In addition, almond production is sporadic and hence is not the perfect substitute for cow and soy milk.


Once the price of milk goes too high (above $6.74 on average), the market operator steps in and caps the price of milk at $3 to protect all us milk drinkers.
The problem is, that cows cost $4 and so do soy beans. $3 is not enough to cover the input costs of producing the milk.
Only the almond farmers can cover their costs at $3 a bottle.

So the poor cow and soy bean farmers can no longer cover their input costs, and hence decide to stop making it, placing even further pressure on the milk industry.

Now the market operator can force cow and soy bean farmers to produce milk, but only if there is a real risk of a milk shortage.
So a few phone calls later, and the market operator has summoned half of the cow farms and soy bean farms to start producing milk again, and nobody has to go without milk.

So the risk of an actual milk shortage should be very small, given the market operator performs their duties correctly and orchestrates milk production in line with their forecasted milk demand. The only risk I can see is if they get their milk demand forecast wrong, and didn’t summon enough cow and soy milk production in time.

So when the media reports on a milk shortage, just know that the market operator has the powers to force milk production, even if it is at a loss to farmers.

Hope that made sense, and feel free to follow up with any questions.

Happy milk-drinking ��"

I will leave it to you all to decide which producer is which.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Trouble being with this analogy, is that the electricity market is dominated by a handful of titanic oligopolies who are known to be Ruthless Bastards.

Consumers are also "price takers". There is no real competition to choose from.

Milk, according to my son just now (he works in IGA) has 41 suppliers and distributors in Canberra ALONE. On the shelf (their shelf) are 24 separate milk brands/products (edit: I added products, as he said the milk choices tend towards being a bit esoteric, but "milk" it still is)

When I buy power, I get to choose from Origin or ACTEW. Both are notorious price gouging usurists.

There is no choice.

Shopping around isn't a choice. There is no market.

The genie needs to be stuffed back into the bottle and electricity generators and distro must be government once again. Power is a natural monopoly. The "free market" and "market competition" mantras are a fraud.

[woodPixel]

Heavy industries in Australia’s regions could cut emissions by 80% and create a jobs bonanza, report says | Business | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/20/heavy-industries-in-australias-regions-could-cut-emissions-by-80-and-create-a-jobs-bonanza-report-says)

[Bushmiller]

Trouble being with this analogy, is that the electricity market is dominated by a handful of titanic oligopolies who are known to be Ruthless Bastards.

Consumers are also "price takers". There is no real competition to choose from.

Milk, according to my son just now (he works in IGA) has 41 suppliers and distributors in Canberra ALONE. On the shelf (their shelf) are 24 separate milk brands/products (edit: I added products, as he said the milk choices tend towards being a bit esoteric, but "milk" it still is)

When I buy power, I get to choose from Origin or ACTEW. Both are notorious price gouging usurists.

There is no choice.

Shopping around isn't a choice. There is no market.

The genie needs to be stuffed back into the bottle and electricity generators and distro must be government once again. Power is a natural monopoly. The "free market" and "market competition" mantras are a fraud.

WP

I take your point, but it was supposed to be a light hearted analogy intended for those ignorant of the energy market rather than the cognoscenti that frequent this thread. Also when deregulation of the milk market occured many farmers went out of business thanks to the big retailers. Gouging can come from both directions. I am envious of your two choices for power. We have one: Take it or leave it (same with phone providers).

I concur that the electricity market should not have been privatised and have stated this myself on more than one occasion (two?), but I have certainly pointed out that it will never happen. No government has the money (they spent it as soon as they got it) and certainly no one has the inclination. There is however a big case for revising the rules. Quite how that is done and legislated I don't know.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

WP

I guess that, reluctantly, I should point out that the cessation of the competitive market was squarely aimed at the wholesale market. Any skullduggery by retailers would be a separate issue. :wink:

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Trouble being with this analogy, is that the electricity market is dominated by a handful of titanic oligopolies who are known to be Ruthless Bastards.

Consumers are also "price takers". There is no real competition to choose from. ...


Very similar to the electricity sector.

In the dairy industry there are:

Fairly large number of dairy farmers who are price takers.
Limited number of dairy processors who dominate the market nationally,
Very limitted number of dominant retail chains nationally, and
Very large number of end consumers who are also price takers - Muggins.


The Government said that they wanted vigorous competition in the dairy industry:

The processors agreed and dealt vigorously with the farmers,
The dominent retailers agreed and dealt vigorously with Muggins, and
The processors and retailers then vigorously arranged sweet heart deals between themselves.


Economics 101: Competitive markets do not work where there are oligopolies or oligopsonies.

[havabeer69]

Heavy industries in Australia’s regions could cut emissions by 80% and create a jobs bonanza, report says | Business | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/20/heavy-industries-in-australias-regions-could-cut-emissions-by-80-and-create-a-jobs-bonanza-report-says)

I've always wondered where these "job bonanza's" come from with regards to renewables.

a good portion of them need minimal input from humans and can only assume the might come from the manufacturing/installing and thats it. the new gas plant at kurri kurri in NSW put out a statement that the need 13 permanent staff to run the joint. not exactly a job bonanza unless you want to fly in and fly out all over regoinal parts of the country trying to chase work.

not to say we don't need renewables but long term I can't see where these 1000's of jobs are meant to come from

[Chief Tiff]

Yeah; these “hundreds of thousands of jobs” are only during the construction stages and I believe they would have been all added up together as if all the projects are under construction simultaneously. In reality a massive proportion of that workforce will consist of the same core contractors moving from job to job. Once the plants are operational the full time site-based operations crew will be somewhat sparse… although there likely will be regular contractor engagement for their planned maintenance.

[Bushmiller]

I've always wondered where these "job bonanza's" come from with regards to renewables.

a good portion of them need minimal input from humans and can only assume the might come from the manufacturing/installing and thats it. the new gas plant at kurri kurri in NSW put out a statement that the need 13 permanent staff to run the joint. not exactly a job bonanza unless you want to fly in and fly out all over regoinal parts of the country trying to chase work.

not to say we don't need renewables but long term I can't see where these 1000's of jobs are meant to come from

haveabeer

That is exactly right. Mostly, a solar farm or wind turbine farm may require up to a hundred personel during construction and about a handful, mainly for maintenance and a little repair work once commisioned. Mostly people from shutdown stations will need to find work elsewhere. Unfortunately, that will often require shifting location.

Just as an aside, Millmerran Power Station is forecast to be one of the last to shut down around 2051. Having said that, I suspect it will be a little earlier, but almost certainly one of the last. Anybody wanting to see their careers out in the fossil fired industry should consider the backwoods of Queensland. :)

The reason for Millmerran's longevity is the cheap supply of fuel (sited on a wholly owned mine which, supplies only the station), modern technology in that it is a supercritical boiler, strategically placed in the grid to balance power and fairly efficient (Second most economic in the industry) all of which contribute to making it economically viable right up until the last moment. I once replied during a employee/manager interview to the question "How do you feel about working at Millmerran?" "If I have to work at a fossil-fuelled, dirty, carbon-emitting power station, Millmerran is the one I would chose."

It wasn't quite the reply the manager had been programmed to expect, but at least nowadays he follows the lawyer's maxim of never asking a question to which you don't know the answer.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Just like the title of the thread... we'd better make sure we arent getting into THIS particular pickle: South Africa'''s Eskom implements worst power cuts in over two years | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africa-see-repeat-worst-power-cuts-yet-2022-06-28/)

[woodPixel]

Here is a bit more enthusiasm for the future:

A better heat engine | MIT Technology Review (https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/29/1053177/a-better-heat-engine/)
Thermophotovoltaic efficiency of 40% | Nature (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04473-y)


Engineers at MIT and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have designed a heat engine with no moving parts. It converts heat to electricity with over 40% efficiency (https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/29/1053177/a-better-heat-engine/) -- making it more efficient than steam turbines, the industrial standard. MIT Technology Review reports:The invention is a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) cell, similar to a solar panel's photovoltaic cells, that passively captures high-energy photons from a white-hot heat source. It can generate electricity from sources that reach 1,900 to 2,400C -- too hot for turbines, with their moving parts. The previous record efficiency for a TPV cell was 32%, but the team improved this performance by using materials that are able to convert higher-temperature, higher-energy photons. The researchers plan to incorporate the TPV cells into a grid-scale thermal battery. The system would absorb excess energy from renewable sources such as the sun and store that energy in heavily insulated banks of hot graphite. Cells would convert the heat into electricity and dispatch it to a power grid when needed.

The researchers have now successfully demonstrated (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04473-y) the main parts of the system in small-scale experiments; the experimental TPV cells are about a centimeter square. They are working to integrate the parts to demonstrate a fully operational system. From there, they hope to scale up the system to replace fossil-fuel plants on the power grid. Coauthor Asegun Henry, a professor of mechanical engineering, envisions TPV cells about 10,000 feet square and operating in climate-controlled warehouses to draw power from huge banks of stored solar energy.

[The Spin Doctor]

Wow!! 19 pages of discussion. People getting a real charge out of this

[GraemeCook]

514048 https://mobile.twitter.com/goldingcartoons

[GraemeCook]

514049 https://mobile.twitter.com/goldingcartoons

[ian]

I think that you have been extremely perceptive, Ian, and from a distance of 10,000 kms.
I'm no longer on the other side of the very big lake.

I'm actually back in Oz for a few months.


Perhaps it's time I changed my signature block

[FenceFurniture]

I'm actually back in Oz for a few months.Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.

[GraemeCook]

Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.

You forgot the bit about the end of his sojourn - he then goes back to another Canadian winter - even colder than Canberra.

[ian]

Now there's a chap who likes punishment. Lives through a Canadian winter with solid precipitation dropping down every other day, to come back here, just in time for a super-wet probably a little colder than usual winter.it's comparatively warm, at least for me.
It's the wind that is currently concerning me.

It's rather blowy in Mosman tonight.


You forgot the bit about the end of his sojourn - he then goes back to another Canadian winter - even colder than Canberra.
I'd say so.

Overheard in a local bakery "minus 35 is bit below my comfort zone"
The guy was heading out to do a bit of ice climbing and waiting for it to warm up to minus 29 [degrees C]

[FenceFurniture]

It's the wind that is currently concerning me.

It's rather blowy in Mosman tonight. Today was awful up here. Much less rainfall than the previous two days, but it was fine rain which is so easily blown horizontal...and it was.

[Bushmiller]

A couple of weeks ago there was a crisis in the Electricity market, which resulted in AEMO stepping in and capping the maximum price. The strategy worked in the short term and gradually the cap was lifted. My colleague told me that a couple of days ago the spot prices again went ballistic and the cap ($300/MWhr) was was re-instituted. We are not out of the woods just yet.

Is anybody in the corridors of power listening?

Regards
Paul

[russ57]

If so, it's not capped now.
Price currently 460 (vic), and heading north. It's been quite high all day. I wonder if some generator is having difficulty. Again.

[Bushmiller]

If so, it's not capped now.
Price currently 460 (vic), and heading north. It's been quite high all day. I wonder if some generator is having difficulty. Again.

Russ

The truth of the matter is that the market is volatile to put it euphemistically. Have a look at this snapshot from today. QLD and NSW are not the only states to have issues and of course there is no coal fired generation resident in SA: Just courtesy of the interconnectors from NSW, without which they would be cactus.

514208

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

Did I mention the market is volatile?

514232

-VE $ in SA. Demand in QLD is low, which probably explains the price. Doesn't seem warm where I am!

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Swiss "water battery" with 20 million kWh of capacity is finally functional | TechSpot (https://www.techspot.com/news/95219-swiss-water-battery-20-million-kwh-capacity-finally.html)

[FenceFurniture]

Swiss "water battery" with 20 million kWh of capacity is finally functional | TechSpot (https://www.techspot.com/news/95219-swiss-water-battery-20-million-kwh-capacity-finally.html)


Well at face value that looks good, 20GWh over 20 hours, so it's producing at a rate of 1GW per hour. You need big mountains for that kind of thing to operate in abundance, and we don't have enough of them – they've all been eroded down. Switzerland has the advantage of a small population (consumption) in a small sized country which is damn near all mountains, although the cold makes up for some of that.

Paul what is the output per hour of your plant (assuming it's the latest, most efficient solid fossil fuel tech)?

[GraemeCook]

Well at face value that looks good, 20GWh over 20 hours, so it's producing at a rate of 1GW per hour. You need big mountains for that kind of thing to operate in abundance, and we don't have enough of them – they've all been eroded down. ...

Interesting analogy, FF; I did some googling:

Height of Mt Kosciusczko - 2,228 metres,
Height of Lac du Vieux Emosson - 2,205 m,
Height of Lac d'Emosson - 1,930 m
Generating fall between the two lakes - 215 metres.

I was surprised by the 215 m generating head, but it probably makes sense when you remember that they have to pump the water back up top.

[FenceFurniture]

I was surprised by the 215 m generating head, but it probably makes sense when you remember that they have to pump the water back up top.I guess it depends on how an increased fall affects efficiency – if it's the same or similar then it doesn't really matter, just whatever fits into the topography. Terminal velocity would probably come into it too.

Mt Victoria (~15km west of here) has a very steep drop away to the west, down Victoria pass (and if you don't follow the road it's even steeper). The drop is about 220m. We could use one of those here!

[Bushmiller]

Paul what is the output per hour of your plant (assuming it's the latest, most efficient solid fossil fuel tech)?

FF

Nominally the two units are rated at 425MW each, but ever since comissioning they have been run at 435MW each whenever possible. I say whenever possible because there are many factors that may reduce this output. For example I think I have already mentioned that on hot days ours turbine backpressure will limited our generation: Closely associated with this is our condensate temperature through the Polishers (the polishers maintain the demin water at a high level of purity) as they have a maximum we cant't exceed. Another limitation is through the Baghouse, which captures the fly ash and minimises visible emissions into the environment: This tends to occur when the coal is particularly poor quality with higher levels of ash. Any of these factors could result in decreased generation.

Also, in round figures, 5% of the generation is consumed on site by our auxliaries including pumps and fans etc.. So "over the fence" on a good day with everything running sweetly we can generate 827MW. We are a relatively small station compared to the NSW stations.

On the hydro aspect, the head pressure and flow rates are the critical factors. This article explains some of this and the beginning is quite general while it develops technical theorey later on.

Hydropower Head and Flow - Renewables First (https://www.renewablesfirst.co.uk/hydropower/hydropower-learning-centre/head-and-flow-detailed-review/)

It doesn't take into consideration pumped hydro and, as Graeme mentioned, this may be significant and I am sure there is an optimum head pressure for these installations. Many of the largest hydro stations are "once through" such as The Three Gorges and Itaipu. They rely on huge, consistent flows.

This is not really available in Australia. Pumped hydro requires two dams, which increases the construction cost considerably.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

So "over the fence" on a good day with everything running sweetly we can generate 827MW.So is that 827MW per hour? If so then the Swiss jobbie can put out about 21% more than your station, which I guess is pretty good for pumped hydro. I have no idea what our current and future pumped hydro put out.

[GraemeCook]

So is that 827MW per hour? If so then the Swiss jobbie can put out about 21% more than your station, which I guess is pretty good for pumped hydro. I have no idea what our current and future pumped hydro put out.

But remember, pumped hydro is intended as a battery, not to run all the time, but to supply electricity when the sun ain't shining and the the wind ain't blowing. Methinks it ultimately comes down to the costs and reliability of the sources of power for the pumps.

[Bushmiller]

So is that 827MW per hour? If so then the Swiss jobbie can put out about 21% more than your station, which I guess is pretty good for pumped hydro. I have no idea what our current and future pumped hydro put out.

Yes , that is close. In the article they actually say the six turbines are capable of 900MW at a time which I make closer to 10% more than us. It is unlikely they are able to completely drain the dam so there would be some constraints compared to the theoretical maximum. It also assumes the dam is full and the holding dam downstream of the turbine/pumping station is exactly matched to the storage dam. I noted too that it has taken 14 years and almost A$3 billion to build. Our station cost A$1.4 billion back in 2003 when commisioned.

I was mentally comparing it to the Snowy 2.0 scheme, which also involves a lot of tunneling, and is already behind schedule.

[Bushmiller]

But remember, pumped hydro is intended as a battery, not to run all the time, but to supply electricity when the sun ain't shining and the the wind ain't blowing. Methinks it ultimately comes down to the costs and reliability of the sources of power for the pumps.

Absolutely. It relies heavily on other sources of power to pump back up the hills when the cost is cheap.

Hydro can also be activated very quickly and is a good source of stablising power.

Regards
Paul

[FenceFurniture]

But remember, pumped hydro is intended as a battery, not to run all the time, but to supply electricity when the sun ain't shining and the the wind ain't blowing.Yes of course, but my point was that it can produce electricity on demand at a slightly higher rate than the Millmerran station for up towards 20 hours, which is pretty impressive, even though Millmerran is smaller than other ff stations.

[GraemeCook]

Absolutely. It relies heavily on other sources of power to pump back up the hills when the cost is cheap.

Hydro can also be activated very quickly and is a good source of stablising power.

Regards
Paul


Wonder on the crude mechanical efficiency of the system? How much more energy is needed to pump the water up hill than is generated by letting in flow down hill?

Always amuses me when you see on other websites, repeated suggestions that pumped hydro utilises free wind or solar electricity. Presumes no capital or maintenance costs!

[Bushmiller]

Wonder on the crude mechanical efficiency of the system? How much more energy is needed to pump the water up hill than is generated by letting in flow down hill?

Always amuses me when you see on other websites, repeated suggestions that pumped hydro utilises free wind or solar electricity. Presumes no capital or maintenance costs!

Graeme

While I am not decrying pumped hydro in any way, there is another issue that we have not addressed. The turbines in a pumped hydro station double as pumps and are used to send the water back to the top dam. They can't, of course, do both at the same time and as pumps I don't know how efficient they are compared to a dedicated pump, but like any compromise machinery they are probably not as good as they could be. Neither do I know how quickly they can change from generating mode to pump mode or vice versa.

With six turbines available at the Swiss plant, some could be generating while others are pumping, although the scenario most of us visualise is pumping through the day utilising cheaper power and generating at night when solar is non existent and wind may have subsided. However, once renewables become dominant there will be, say, sixteen hours of darkness to generate, but only eight hours during the day to pump back up the hill. While those figures of generation/ pumping could vary (summer to winter) and could certainly be challenged, it is clear that the full potential may not be available at all times. I would also say this is true of most forms of generation as I pointed out in post #773 at my own station. Potential generation and actual generation may not always be the same and when this occurs at times of crisis we end up with a crisis unless there is a sufficient amout of reserve power.

As you say, not very much comes for absolutely free! There are always costs or breakdowns.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Here is another component for the melange....

Porsche-backed HIF Global wants to build an e-fuel plant in north-west Tasmania. So what are e-fuels and what could it mean for Burnie? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-10/efuel-plant-proposed-for-tasmanias-north-west/101223944) .... "100 million litres of e-fuel each year"

While not directly attached to the primary job of Electric Generation, it is tangential, as the facility will use power to make biofuels.

I wonder if such a thing could also be used like a dam? Use low-cost excess electricity to generate masses of biofuels and simply burn them in generators when peak demand or emergencies occur?

Seems to me that if it can be "manufactured" in Burnie Tasmania, it can be manufactured on smaller scales locally to the towns/cities that may need it, when the peaks occur.

Another part to the puzzle?

It seems to me the answer is HHUUGGEE solar facilities and a wide range of storage options.



Edit - this is 1660 of these tankers. I had trouble picturing 100ML....
514312

edit -- BINGO! Its an all-in-one standalone gas pump, just plonk it down where there is wind and water.... Haru Oni (https://hifglobal.com/haru-oni)

[GraemeCook]

... With six turbines available at the Swiss plant, some could be generating while others are pumping ...


With utmost respect, Paul, I absolutely disagree. This does not make sense in economic or engineering terms.

It takes a lot of energy to pump water up hill, a lot more energy than is generated by it flowing back down hill. I very much doubt that those Swiss pumps could pump water vertically 215 metres - surely their must be a series of pumps up the pipe?

If we assume that the net efficiency of the pumping system is 80%, then this means that it takes 125 kWh of pumping to supply enough water to generate 100 kWh of electricity. [calc = 100/0.80 = 125] If you have 125 kWh of wind/solar electricity available then surely you would pump it straight into the grid rather than use it to make 100 kWh of hydro electricity. If prices are so low that you can take electricity from the grid to pump water, why waste precious water simultaneously generating hydro electricity?

[GraemeCook]

Here is another component for the melange....

Porsche-backed HIF Global wants to build an e-fuel plant in north-west Tasmania. So what are e-fuels and what could it mean for Burnie? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-10/efuel-plant-proposed-for-tasmanias-north-west/101223944) .... "100 million litres of e-fuel each year"
... i (https://hifglobal.com/haru-oni)


I saw that and other press reports that are so vague as to be virtually meaningless. Time will tell.

Interesting that they are using the Porsche label, when Porsche is a wholly owned brand name of the Volkswagen Group. Wonder why they chose not to use the Skoda or VW name. But Woody and I would probably prefer a Lamborghini model?

[woodPixel]

I saw that and other press reports that are so vague as to be virtually meaningless. Time will tell.

Interesting that they are using the Porsche label, when Porsche is a wholly owned brand name of the Volkswagen Group. Wonder why they chose not to use the Skoda or VW name. But Woody and I would probably prefer a Lamborghini model?

We are a Formula 1 family. Porsche is interested in getting a team going.

The F1 group have been talking this year, non stop, about going back "to its roots" of V10's with turbos and the fuels that run them. The battery storage is nifty, but it weighs a ton.

The BIG part of that discussion is wanting to appear as a Good Corporate Citizen. Using Fossil fuels just won't do.... and methanol is a disaster as it burns invisibly (VERY bad!).

So, they have been working on synthetic fuel replicas. The cars will use those.

If these are made with the formula of --> Sunlight/Wind electrons + Atmospheric CO2 + H2O = Magic Fuel.... then nobody will complain.

Hence, I believe, the Porsche tie-in.

Personally, I like the idea. Imagine popping up a turbine + solar panels and have some mini factory burp out a small lake of spare fuels for the power turbines "when the wind isn't blowin'", then it goes part way to solving the nay-sayers arguments.

(I'm an optimist).

[GraemeCook]

... So, they have been working on synthetic fuel replicas. The cars will use those.

If these are made with the formula of --> Sunlight/Wind electrons + Atmospheric CO2 + H2O = Magic Fuel.... then nobody will complain.

Hence, I believe, the Porsche tie-in. ...


That is absolutely fantastic.

Porsche will mix atmospheric CO2 with ordinary H2O and get a magic fuel.

Last time I mixed CO2 with H2O I got H2CO3 which is known as carbonic acid and also known as soda water. I thought there was a bit a detail missing from the media reports.

[woodPixel]

That is absolutely fantastic.

Porsche will mix atmospheric CO2 with ordinary H2O and get a magic fuel.

Last time I mixed CO2 with H2O I got H2CO3 which is known as carbonic acid and also known as soda water. I thought there was a bit a detail missing from the media reports.

The H2O is hydrolysed you numpty :)

It also needs a palladium catalyst, or even a titanium dioxide photocatalyst under UV light and 6 atmospheres of pressure.

For those interested: E-diesel - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-diesel)

I think SOME these will prove to be good investments.

[woodPixel]

Australia '''on track''' to generate half its electricity from renewable sources by 2025, report finds - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-12/australias-renewable-energy-transition-on-track-to-2025/101227960)

Very interesting!

[GraemeCook]

... I think SOME these will prove to be good investments.


I am not as mega-optimistic as you!

Less than 1% of research ever results in a succesful product - but VW think this is worth a punt.

[woodPixel]

I am not as mega-optimistic as you!

Less than 1% of research ever results in a successful product - but VW think this is worth a punt.

How excellent would it be if one could buy a little "Brew Factory" for the home. :)

Plug in in, power it with the solar and wind off the roof, pour in water in one end and out trickles High Octane Rev Juice :)

Max Max averted!

Yes, Im overly optimistic on tech. Im very pessimistic about humans though. I personally feel we are doomed as a species... we can't seem to stop ourselves.

[Bushmiller]

When we talk of nuclear power the subject of initial cost is often a party pooper. Two aspects that are not so frequently raised are the decommisioning cost and the cost if something goes wrong.

This judgement in Japan over the Fukushima disaster may give the proponents of nukes a little cause to re-think:

Fukushima nuclear disaster: ex-bosses of owner Tepco ordered to pay ¥13tn (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-ex-bosses-of-owner-tepco-ordered-to-pay-13tn/ar-AAZwVOD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a74f202bff134bfdb4d41f1e8848492f)

£80billion is a lot to split between five directors! In Australia directors have ultimatel liability for the company they represent and any or all of their assets can be requisitioned to pay an adverse decision.

Regards
Paul

[yvan]

£80billion is a serious amount for sure but will it ever be actually paid.
I am cynical enough to think that all this is a symbolical gesture to allow these bosses to apologise by simply bowing...

What is far more worrying about Fukushima is the 1.25 MILLION TONS of contaminated water to be released - read dumped - into the ocean sometimes in 2023. And the number is growing by the day....

[ian]

When we talk of nuclear power the subject of initial cost is often a party pooper. Two aspects that are not so frequently raised are the decommisioning cost and the cost if something goes wrong.

This judgement in Japan over the Fukushima disaster may give the proponents of nukes a little cause to re-think:

Fukushima nuclear disaster: ex-bosses of owner Tepco ordered to pay ¥13tn (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/fukushima-nuclear-disaster-ex-bosses-of-owner-tepco-ordered-to-pay-13tn/ar-AAZwVOD?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=a74f202bff134bfdb4d41f1e8848492f)

£80billion is a lot to split between five directors! In Australia directors have ultimatel liability for the company they represent and any or all of their assets can be requisitioned to pay an adverse decision.


£80billion is a serious amount for sure but will it ever be actually paid.
I am cynical enough to think that all this is a symbolical gesture to allow these bosses to apologise by simply bowing...I'm not sure about Japanese corporate law, but here in Australia, company directors are fully insured for this sort of potential payout.

And, again using Australia as a "model", no actual liability payment will be made till all legal avenues of appeal have been exhausted.
I believe that in Japan there are TWO levels of appeal above the Tokyo District court. So there's a ways to go yet.


What will be interesting is the impact the judgement has on reinsurance rates for company and director's liability insurance.


What is far more worrying about Fukushima is the 1.25 MILLION TONS of contaminated water to be released - read dumped - into the ocean sometimes in 2023. And the number is growing by the day....The real question should be "what is the concentration of the radiation in the contaminated water?"
If it's 1.25 million cubic metres (tonnes) at 10 x background, there is no real reason to worry,
if it's 1.25 million cubic metres (tonnes) at 10,000,000 x background -- the situation is very concerning

[woodPixel]

Home battery sales are rising with volatile power prices and some owners are installing several to make more money - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-07-15/home-battery-sales-are-rising-with-volatile-power-prices/101226252)

Edit - I'm curious, given how conspicuous/expensive/useful these things are, how long will it be before they are knocked off in a series of heists?

514471

[GraemeCook]

I'm not sure about Japanese corporate law, but here in Australia, company directors are fully insured for this sort of potential payout. ...

Are you sure, Paul?

Most, if not all, public companies insure their directors and senior management against all liabilities arising from their positions. However, I doubt that any company has $80 billion in coverage.

In fact, world wide, could the industry handle an $80 billion policy?

[woodPixel]

Now, here is a thing!


PG&E announced that more than 1,500 Tesla Powerwall owners have already decided to joined the new virtual power plant it launched in partnership with Tesla in California (https://electrek.co/2022/07/15/tesla-powerwall-owners-joined-new-virtual-power-plant-california/).



Electrek reports: A virtual power plant (VPP) consists of distributed energy storage systems, like Tesla Powerwalls, used in concert to provide grid services and avoid the use of polluting and expensive peaker power plants. Last year, Tesla launched a test VPP in California, where Powerwall owners would join in voluntarily without compensation to let the VPP pull power from their battery packs when the grid needed it. Last month, Tesla and PG&E, a large electric utility company in Northern California, announced the launch of a new commercial VPP (https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/22/06/26/2245228/tesla-pays-powerwall-owners-to-form-virtual-power-plant-in-california) where homeowners with Powerwalls would get compensated for helping the grid with the energy in their battery packs.

PG&E has now released an update on the virtual power plant and said that more than 1,500 Tesla Powerwall owners have already joined the program: "On June 22, Tesla invited approximately 25,000 PG&E customers with Powerwalls to join the VPP and help form the world's largest distributed battery. In the first two weeks of the new program, more than 3,000 customers have expressed interest in enrolling, with more than 1,500 customers officially in the program." With an average of two Powerwalls per customer, the VPP most likely already has a 13 MW load capacity. PG&E says that if all eligible Powerwall owners join, the VPP would have the available megawatts equivalent to "the energy generated by a small power plant." Tesla Powerwall owners can join through the Tesla app and receive $2 per kWh that they send back to the grid during emergency events.


"Enabling Powerwall customers to support the grid and their community is a necessary and important part of accelerating the transition to sustainable energy," said Drew Baglino, senior vice president of Powertrain and Energy Engineering at Tesla. "We seek to partner with utilities and regulators everywhere to unlock the full potential of storage to bring more renewable, resilient, and less costly electricity to everyone."

[FenceFurniture]

"We seek to partner with utilities and regulators everywhere ....."Well I'll just bet they are.

[woodPixel]

514489

This is global heat yesterday.

Source: Climate Reanalyzer (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2max)

[Bushmiller]

514489

This is global heat yesterday.

Source: Climate Reanalyzer (https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2max)

As we were travelling home form NSW yesterday I heard on the radio that Southern England was being decalred a disaster area as the temp was exceeding 40°C. I lived in the UK for thirty years and never ever saw any temp close to that.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

World's first ''sand battery'' can store heat at 500C for months at a time. Could it work in Australia? - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-07-19/sand-battery-debuts-in-finland-world-first-heat-thermal-storage/101235514)



The idea of storing heat in sand to warm homes through winter may, on the face of it, seem too simple to work.
The world's first commercial "sand battery" stores heat at 500 degrees Celsius for months at a time.
It can be used to heat homes and offices and provide high-temperature heat for industrial processes.
Thermal storage could displace gas in industry and remove up to 16 per cent of Australia's emissions, experts say.
Drop a load of cheap builder's sand in an insulated silo, heat the sand with renewable electricity, and then tap the stored thermal energy for months on end.



Hot air blown through pipes heats the sand in the steel container by resistive heating (this is how electric heaters work).The sand is able to store heat at around 500–600 degrees Celsius for months, so solar power generated in the summer can be used to heat homes in the winter.
It can store up to 8 megawatt-hours of energy, which is the capacity of a large, grid-scale lithium battery.

[BobL]

Hot air blown through pipes heats the sand in the steel container by resistive heating (this is how electric heaters work).The sand is able to store heat at around 500–600 degrees Celsius for months, so solar power generated in the summer can be used to heat homes in the winter. It can store up to 8 megawatt-hours of energy, which is the capacity of a large, grid-scale lithium battery.

Maybe hook it up to the houses of Parliament?