Future of the Australian Electricity Market

[yvan]

Saline Water-Based Mineralization Pathway for Gigatonne-Scale CO2 Management (https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acssuschemeng.0c08561)

Another one for the cynics here! Ill convert you grumpy curmudgeons yet! :)

This one reacts the huge quanta of CO2 in water (rather than the 400ppm in air) into various Interesting Minerals.

Water has 50x more CO2 in it than air. This method can process 10Gt per year of the whopping 37Gt we emit (!!!!)

An interesting read.

a thought - IF there were a price on CO2 emission these types of projects would be worth a fortune.

511885

Interesting indeed, although the finer details of the chemistry involved lost me completely!
The scaling up into a practical process is the key and the sort of numbers involved are pretty staggering:

Processing 10Gt of CO2 would result in "....the production of over 20 Gt of solids annually.." and "...landfill disposal of 10 Gt of carbonate solids will require about 6.8 km3 (6.8 billion m3) of space per year..."

Which begs the question of how big would the processing plant(s) have to be and at what cost, not to mention the additional costs of the disposal of these solids!

Theoretically feasible but, on the basis of the numbers used, unachievable. Back to the drawing board methinks!

Cheers
Yvan

[woodPixel]

Interesting indeed, although the finer details of the chemistry involved lost me completely!
The scaling up into a practical process is the key and the sort of numbers involved are pretty staggering:

Processing 10Gt of CO2 would result in "....the production of over 20 Gt of solids annually.." and "...landfill disposal of 10 Gt of carbonate solids will require about 6.8 km3 (6.8 billion m3) of space per year..."

Which begs the question of how big would the processing plant(s) have to be and at what cost, not to mention the additional costs of the disposal of these solids!

Theoretically feasible but, on the basis of the numbers used, unachievable. Back to the drawing board methinks!

This is pretty real, isn't it.

The numbers boggle ones mind.

It solidifies to me the absolute horror we have created. It may get to a point where we have NO CHOICE but to start driving these extreme solutions to fruition.

I saved the paper so I can give it a good read. It felt extremely important.

If 10Gt of CO2 makes 6.8m3 of carbonite, then we need to multiply this by FOUR (rounding it).

That is ~27 cubic KILOMETERS of CO2 we are thumping into the atmosphere every year and have done so for many years. YIKESSSSS!!!!

I don't think, on first read, that disposing of carbonite in the ocean is a problem. Seashells and the White Cliffs of England are a good example of mass carbonite. I don't believe it causes any harm... the article states (I think) that the lowering of acidification caused by the CO2 in the water is a zillion times more important.


I'm very concerned by what humans have done to the planet. I think, as woodworkers, that we see and know that we must live in balanced harmony, otherwise we get The Lorax.

[GraemeCook]

What is this carbonite that you talk about, woodPixel? Wikipedia is not helpful:
Carbonite - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonite)

If I remember my schoolboy chemistry properly, the white cliffs of Dover and sea shells are both composed of calcium carbonate, as is limestone and marble, as favoured by Michaelangelo. As far as I know, limestone is not a problem in the oceans but carbon dioxide certainly is. CO2 disolved in water forms carbonic acid which attacks calcium carbonate. It is already harming shellfish and crustaceons:
Covering Ocean Acidification: Chemistry and Considerations >> Yale Climate Connections (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/06/covering-ocean-acidification-chemistry-and-considerations/)

[woodPixel]

Carbonite! Haha! silly me, thats Star Wars and what Han Solo was encased in :)

Carbonate! :)

Yes carbonate :)

[BobL]

This is pretty real, isn't it.

The numbers boggle ones mind.

It solidifies to me the absolute horror we have created. It may get to a point where we have NO CHOICE but to start driving these extreme solutions to fruition.

I saved the paper so I can give it a good read. It felt extremely important.

If 10Gt of CO2 makes 6.8m3 of carbonite, then we need to multiply this by FOUR (rounding it)..

What is the "m"

If it's metres then . . . . . .

10Gt/6.8m^3 has a density of about 1 Gt/m^3 OR 1 Tkg/m^3, which is a about a million time more than the supposed density of the back hole in the centre of our galaxy.

[Bushmiller]

What is the "m"

If it's metres then . . . . . .

10Gt/6.8m^3 has a density of about 1 Gt/m^3 OR 1 Tkg/m^3, which is a about a million time more than the supposed density of the back hole in the centre of our galaxy.

Bob

looking back at Yvan's original post (#601) it looks as though we have not found a substance heavier than Gidgee and can attribute it to a typo: It should read 6.8Km³. Does that make it a bit less dense?

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

m is the international standard symbol for Mystery.

Its an arbitrary volume, describing mindboggling volumes outside the ken of peons, very similar in usage to the more commonly known Australian measurement of "Fuk Ton".

:)

Yes, Km :)

[Bushmiller]

Andrew "twiggy" Forrest has come out and said,

" Mr Forrest said the fossil fuel industry has highly effective campaigns to promote hydrogen made by burning coal and gas as clean, when “it is in fact highly polluting and therefore dangerous to humanity”.“The fossil fuel industry must stop greenwashing,” he said.
He was concerned research released this week shows four out of five Australians do not realise “clean hydrogen” spruiked by the industry, and as defined by the federal government, can be made from fossil fuels and contentious carbon capture and storage technology. "

It pretty well sums up the state of the nation in their understanding of H2's place in the energy mix (subscribers to this thread excepted) and is part of an address he made in Barcelona (I don't know why he had to go there to speak) and you can see more here.

Forrest flays fossil fuel ‘greenwashing’ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/forrest-flays-fossil-fuel-greenwashing/ar-AAXuKhL?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=461d51ccadf440fc98f73e48e394c82c)

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Mr. Forrest finally said what is widely known, rarely discussed though used for political purposes by a floundering industry and politicians. The UK is attempting to make Hydrogen a main stream source of energy as I pointed out above but how I have not looked at the production methods.

[NeilS]

Andrew "twiggy" Forrest has come out and said,

" Mr Forrest said the fossil fuel industry has highly effective campaigns to promote hydrogen made by burning coal and gas as clean, when “it is in fact highly polluting and therefore dangerous to humanity”.“The fossil fuel industry must stop greenwashing,” he said.
He was concerned research released this week shows four out of five Australians do not realise “clean hydrogen” spruiked by the industry, and as defined by the federal government, can be made from fossil fuels and contentious carbon capture and storage technology. "

It pretty well sums up the state of the nation in their understanding of H2's place in the energy mix (subscribers to this thread excepted)

To quote a Monty Python.... "Say no more, say no more!"

Off to vote... say no more, say no more... :rolleyes:

[Bushmiller]

Over the course of the last few months several regular posters to this thread have noted how the spot price has been steadily increasing. Only a percentage of the available power is sold on the spot market as much of it is under contract. The purpose of contracts are to safeguard against spikes in price and to provide stability for pricing. However, at some point the contracts come up for renewal and the spot market will provide indication of where prices are going. I turned up this article today, which seems to indicate the outgoing government held off on the bad news ofelectricity prices about to rise because of the election. Previous spruiking of lower market prices would have floundered.

Coalition delayed news that electricity prices are set to rise until after federal election (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coalition-delayed-news-that-electricity-prices-are-set-to-rise-until-after-federal-election/ar-AAXFkTf?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=330c747782bd411fa71a677256f40fd3)

Regular readers of this thread will not be as surprised by the forecast as many others. It really needs the incoming government to knuckledown on this issue as a matter of extreme priority.

Regards
Paul

[russ57]

I noticed the headline increase in the Victorian default offer is '5%'. However the fine print suggests ausnet customers can look forward to a 10% rise, and another distributor only 1%.
Hard to understand how that is driven by the wholesale prices.
(and yes, i am an ausnet customer, struggling to understand why my prices should be so much higher than a customer only a few ks away...)

[Bushmiller]

I noticed the headline increase in the Victorian default offer is '5%'. However the fine print suggests ausnet customers can look forward to a 10% rise, and another distributor only 1%.
Hard to understand how that is driven by the wholesale prices.
(and yes, i am an ausnet customer, struggling to understand why my prices should be so much higher than a customer only a few ks away...)

Russ

I am not familiar with this side of the market and where I live in country Queensland there is a choice of one retailler only. What I would suggest is that in your case the retaillers in question have contracts spanning widely different time spans. If your supplier (ausnet) had only just re-negotiated it may well be quite elevated compared to somebody else as that contract will be at a price a good deal higher than it was twelve months ago for example. However, this is just conjecture by me. I don't know how easily you can chop and changesuppliers down there in VIC.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

I noticed the headline increase in the Victorian default offer is '5%'. However the fine print suggests ausnet customers can look forward to a 10% rise, and another distributor only 1%.
Hard to understand how that is driven by the wholesale prices.
(and yes, i am an ausnet customer, struggling to understand why my prices should be so much higher than a customer only a few ks away...)


Consumers tend to think of pricing in terms of cost plus.

Marketers think in terms of what the market will bear.

[russ57]

Ausnet is the distributor.. As i understand it, any retailer can offer to any customer, regardless of the distributor, and they pay the distribution network charges.
The default offers seem to take account of the differing distribution costs.
Gold plated network was a phrase thrown around for a while. Unfortunately we don't get gold plated service. Received $90 rebate so far this calendar year for unplanned outages. (and i live in the suburbs of Melbourne not sone remote community...)

[Bushmiller]

Just continuing with the state of the market following the election I saw this today

"Incoming Energy Minister Chris Bowen blamed “nine years of Liberal denial and cost” for rising costs.
“There are international factors at play here … but the lack of energy policy, the lack of investment in new energy, the lack of investment in renewable energy, and the lack of transmission over the last nine years means that Australians are paying more for electricity than they should be.”
Mr Bowen said the introduction of more renewable energy under the Albanese government would put downward pressure on prices.
Greens leader Adam Bandt said Labor needed to rethink its pledge not to fast-track the closure of coal-fired power.
“That’s a problem because it’s pushing up power prices,” he said "

Full article here (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/coal-prices-floods-push-up-power-prices/ar-AAXJET8?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=322f3ff855ae469ca5a349a24c66ec23)

I don't think that quite depicts the situation although there are elements of truth woven in there somewhere. By all means fast track the closure of coal-fired power providing you have the ability to provide a replacement. Bandt and Bowen are incorrect when they say the non-closure of stations and the lack of more renewable energy are pushing up power prices.

My own take is that several factors have come into play. One that is not much talked about is the effect the wet weather is having on coal-fired stations. Open-cut mines are particularly susceptible to rain events and stations without significant stock piles as a back up reserve will be struggling to keep up supply as the mining eqipment cannot get into the pits. On occasions during heavy rain events the coal cannot travel up the conveyoys into the silos as it slips back down the belts. That is not normally a long term issue, but can be accute for short periods. Unusually long and protracted cloud cover has had an adverse effect on solar generation in recent times and I suspect that gas prices have risen because more money can be recovered through exports. There is a good chance that hydro generation has been better placed of late, but that has not beeen sufficient to entirely compensate.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

I am gald that I am not a minister of energy trying to conjure a coherent policy in such a difficult environment. Essentially there are three sources of electricity:

Dirty fossil fuels - black coal, brown coal and gas.

Reliable green energy - aka hydro - but supply is limitted by existing dams and difficulties in building more.

Intermittent green energy - aka wind and solar - and it will remain that way until there is significant gains in battery technology or other ways to store energy that is cost effective.

[FenceFurniture]

Greens leader Adam Bandt said Labor needed to rethink its pledge not to fast-track the closure of coal-fired power.I actually hope they don't pick up the 76th seat because minority Govt means greater scrutiny, and they have done it very successfully before with this PM when he was Leader of the House (who is the chief negotiator with other parties). It also means they will be pushed into higher reduction targets, and probably a much bigger re-think of electricity production.

One thing that occurs to me is that as the PM is an excellent strategist, and they could well have gone to this election with smaller targets so as not to spook an already spooked electorate, knowing that there was every chance they could be a minority Govt and would therefore have to agree to higher targets (very willingly, I might add).
Greens + Teals: "We want bigger emissions reduction targets and a complete rethink of the Electricity Industry".
Govt: "OK, no wuckas."

That gives them a neat political out for those who want to moan and deny. "They forced us into it, we had no choice but to comply." (However, I think the deniers are a rapidly shrinking minority these days, and are likely to be somewhat voiceless in the coming years as the weather and climate become self-evidently worse.)

It has to be said that it would be a delicious piece of finessing from the new Govt, if it were the case.

[woodPixel]

That gives them a neat political out for those who want to moan and deny. "They forced us into it, we had no choice but to comply."

It has to be said that it would be a delicious piece of finessing from the new Govt, if it were the case.

A little bird told me this was exactly their strategy.

If they meet their target earlier, or exceed it massively, or get it done by next year.... ooops. (err, yay!).

I feel hopeful for the new government.

FF, I agree on the minority aspect. Everyone that has discussed it with me seems to have the same thoughts. Majority governments don't produce the best result for all.

[Bushmiller]

While it looks likely Labour will achieve their lower house majority, they won't enjoy the same status in the Senate so their actual majority will become academic. Poor legislation won't make it through.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Here is one uniquely Australian benefit to solar generation :)

Solar farm trial shows improved fleece on merino sheep grazed under panels - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-05-30/solar-farm-grazing-sheep-agriculture-renewable-energy-review/101097364)


"It is actually quite astonishing. Some of the sheep look fantastic. They're growing exponentially and the wool cuts are in the top 5 per cent in the district."



Mr Warren said the carrying capacity of the land had also increased by about 25 per cent.

During the drought, water condensed on the solar panels in the mornings. The trickling of the water to the grass below keep strips of pasture green.


512442

[ajw]

My provider contacted me today and advised me to switch to somebody else. From what I can gather, they are unprotected from wholesale pricing changes that are flowing through, and their rates will need to increase significantly shortly. They recently raised their rates 27%, but it's clear they are unsustainable. I can only assume that they are losing money on every kWh they are selling. Why else tell people to move to another provider? Bizarre. I've switched to a bigger retailer on fixed pricing for 12 months.

This entire system is so frustrating. The energymadeeasy government website said there were over 700 offers I could look at. That's insane. Nobody has time to do that kind of analysis, and the country doesn't need that level of "choice". All of that cost in retailing and marketing what is an essential commodity.

ajw

[woodPixel]

AJW, this may answer your question....

Energy retailer tells more than 70,000 customers to go elsewhere or face doubling of prices | Energy | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/31/energy-retailer-tells-more-than-70000-customers-to-go-elsewhere-or-face-doubling-of-prices)

[Log Dog]

Well after being quoted $6000+ to install a builders pole (with 1 x single phase/+ 1 x 3 phase socket only)
I am going to purchase a container home and go off grid :q
I live in an area where sunshine is king
Not many rainy days in Chillagoe lol
I have gas for cooking...this services my needs adequately
Also have a decent generator at the ready
Solar will probably suit and serve me well
That said I am not a big consumer of electricity at the best of times...I am quite conservative in that respect
Log Dog :)

[Bushmiller]

Well after being quoted $6000+ to install a builders pole (with 1 x single phase/+ 1 x 3 phase socket only)
I am going to purchase a container home and go off grid :q
I live in an area where sunshine is king
Not many rainy days in Chillagoe lol
I have gas for cooking...this services my needs adequately
Also have a decent generator at the ready
Solar will probably suit and serve me well
That said I am not a big consumer of electricity at the best of times...I am quite conservative in that respect
Log Dog :)

Log Dog

If serious, look at tiny houses too, which can be one and the same thing, but not always. My sister has just put two tiny houses on her block. Our ex postmaster used to be a ranger at Chillagoe and it was on his recommendation that we visited the caves: Amazing. I guess you know to watch out for the salties.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

I had wondered when the subject of gas in the home was going to rear it's ugly head and it looks as though people are waking up. The issue occured to me in the last year as we have been looking at a new kitchen to replace our state of the art 1940s kitchen, which SWMBO maintains is really a Claytons kitchen. She is equally dismayed that the kitchen has not yet happened.

Anyhow we were looking at a new gas stove, which I reluctantly pointed out will contribute to carbon emissions and one day will probably be obsolete or banned or both. So we have had to reconsider. gas has always been so much better to for cooking: Not really cheaper mind, but more controllable. No commercial kitchen used anything but gas and commercial stoves were of course gas, but it looks as though will have to revisit this issue. perhaps the induction tops will replicate the controllability of gas. Either way, I was promopted to mention this because of this article:

Not cooking with gas: Councils want to ban gas connections in new developments (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/not-cooking-with-gas-councils-want-to-ban-gas-connections-in-new-developments/ar-AAXU7C2?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=81d8d2863f4e484894a81fca75b132ce)

For the moment we will continue with the stove we have which has gas for the plates and electricity for the oven: A new stove looks as though it will be electric.

Regards
Paul

[Log Dog]

Log Dog

If serious, look at tiny houses too, which can be one and the same thing, but not always. My sister has just put two tiny houses on her block. Our ex postmaster used to be a ranger at Chillagoe and it was on his recommendation that we visited the caves: Amazing. I guess you know to watch out for the salties.

Regards
PaulActually Paul there are a couple of resident freshwater crocs in Chillagoe Creek...only a few streets away from where I live.
Yes the caves are amazing
The geological formations in the area are quite fascinating
National parks essentially surround the town
Log Dog :)

[GraemeCook]

... The issue occured to me in the last year as we have been looking at a new kitchen to replace our state of the art 1940s kitchen, which SWMBO maintains is really a Claytons kitchen. ...

We went through that debate for almost 20 years, before we totally rebuilt the kitchen about 10 years ago. In retrospect, I got most things right. Subsequently, I went back to uni and did a fine arts degree majoring in design, which largely confirms my analysis.

It might be worth starting a dedicated thread - Paul's New Kitchen - rather than hijacking this one. With kitchen design, the devil is in the detail.

Cooktops do not use much gas so bottled gas is fine; we later converted to town gas and put in a gas heater - this was a mistake as the price of gas gas more than doubled. A small percentage of commercial kitchens now use induction - this is the only alternative to gas.

[woodPixel]

I'm currently on a "variable" plan with Origin.

The variable plan allows them to change the price once during the term of the contract (12 months). It also allows me to switch to another plan, or leave, without penalty.

What are peoples thoughts as to the REALITY of consumer prices going up? I've seen the recent posts above (of course!) and the futures pricing of energy (https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NG).... word seems to be that prices are going to be going up, quickly.

Are others here locking in their consumer (home) usage?



The rates on the left are fixed rate, the right is my current variable plan.

512530

[havabeer69]

its funny when you look at gas in NSW.

its just so happens the origin energy... who want to shut down 2800MW of coal power in lake Macquarie... are also a major gas supplier.

I wonder if taking a bunch of electricity out of the grid and driving prices up may make people look at gas as an alternative, and where would they get the gas from.... Origin

[NeilS]

... perhaps the induction tops will replicate the controllability of gas.



We went with an induction cooktop over twenty years ago and my wife would now have nothing else. She had us remove a new gas hob and replace it with an induction cooktop when we moved into our current house fifteen years ago. Happy wife, happy life!

In our experience they are quick (they directly heat the pan, not the hob), are very controllable (from as low as 1, which would take forever to fry an egg, and up to 9 (on ours) that will have the pot boiling as quick as gas.

And, they are easy to clean (that's my job) because the hob doesn't get hot like other cooktops. We place a piece of paper towel on the hob and the pan on top of that... which helps to keep the hob clean ... and, if the contents aren't burning, neither does the paper towel...:)

The one issue for people in my/our generation in changing over to induction cooking is that the pan bottoms need to contain magnetic iron, which most newer cookware does, but that may not be the case with all of the cookware that you have had for the last 50yrs.

Some people say that the induction tops don't do as good a job with Wok cooking. Some have a single gas burner just for that, but, in our experience, a good induction top wok does a reasonable job.

[FenceFurniture]

Some people say that the induction tops don't do as good a job with Wok cooking. Some have a single gas burner just for that, but, in our experience, a good induction top wok does a reasonable job.It.... may take some more convincing for me to give up gas stovetop cooking. Apart from the minimal (miniscule?) impact on global heating which I'm sure could be easily absorbed into nett zero, one of the things I like to be able to do with gas stove cooking is to be able to lift the pan/pot up off the cooktop a wee bit, but still get some heat happening.

[ian]

The rates on the left are fixed rate, the right is my current variable plan.

512530
Now that screen shot displays something that I just don't get at all.

Why does the supply charge -- which ostensibly pays for the poles, wires and metering -- vary between the fixed cost and variable pricing plans?
Electricity, and for that matter gas, all need a connection to the source of supply. The poles and wires for electricity or the in street gas main.
So on what basis can those fixed supply costs vary between plans?

I'm holding my breath -- well not literally -- waiting for a rational response.


To me variable supply charges looks to be nothing more than very very tricky marketing. Or should I just say an outright lie?

[GraemeCook]

... Some people say that the induction tops don't do as good a job with Wok cooking. Some have a single gas burner just for that, but, in our experience, a good induction top wok does a reasonable job.


Both my wife and I like cooking, and we did a lot of research into this issue when we were planning a new kitchen ten years ago. Two issues that we were considering were:

gas or induction cooktop, and
wok burner or not.

Surprisingly, a Chinese friend advised us against installing a wok burner, on the surprising grounds that it would disappoint us.

Both Kai Wing and his wife are very good cooks and we have enjoyed many meals with them. Then they bought a small restaurant and found that they were cooking better in the restaurant than at home. The difference was commercial vs domestic wok burners, so they installed a commercial wok burner on a stainless steel bench at home and their cooking went up a notch from extremely good. Brilliant.

While researching our then planned kitchen we looked at both wok burners and cooktops with wok burners:

The largest available domestic wok burners then had an output of 25 mJ,
The smallest then available commercial wok burner was 100 mJ and they ranged up to 400 mJ, and
Induction wok burners (domestic) were rated slightly lower than gas.

It was too difficult to incorporate a commercial wok burner into our kitchen so we eventually with a gas cooktop with a 25 mJ wok burner.

I increasingly wish that we had a much larger wok burner; I can cook significantly better in Kai Wing's kitchen than my own. As he repeatedly says, "If stir frying takes more than 60 seconds then turn the heat up more!" and "Keep the food moving."

[woodPixel]

On wok burners, go to the Chinese food supply stores. Near the steamers and scoops they usually sell 3 and 4 ring burners.

They are BEASTS. Ugly - but they put out heat like crazy.

Here is a local ripoff: High Pressure 4 Ring Burner 72MJ/h LPG Gas 6.9kPa (https://www.mydeal.com.au/ignite-high-pressure-4-ring-burner-gas-burner-wok-burner-72mj-h-lpg-gas-6-9kpa-black-2444299) but they are normally about $40-50 in the stores.

512561

edit: they have one for $70, which is sort of OK on price but it does come with a hose.... Gasmate Cast Iron Ring Burner - MyDeal (https://www.mydeal.com.au/gasmate-cast-iron-ring-burner-1026515)

512562

[ajw]

My daughter is also with Reamped who are telling customers to go elsewhere. Massive advertising campaign to get the customers to switch now, or face price rises of 100% or more.

Today they sweetened the deal and offered her a $100 voucher if she switched.

They must be seriously under water financially if they are now paying people to go. There must be some problem with simply jacking up the price. Is there some legislated cap for prices? I can’t think of another reason why they’d do this. I don’t believe the marketing hype that they are using about wanting to be honest and straightforward.

I’ve already switched, without the offer of a $100 voucher.

cheers,

ajw

[Bushmiller]

Quite a few isssues have been raised in the last few threads.

The so-called wok burners as Graeme has identified are just not up to the job on the domestic front. I do have one of those multi rings gas burners WP posted, but have never actually used it.

The retiallers that are advising people to go elsewhere for their power are paying the penalty for not having contracts to safeguard their pricing. there is some cap that is set so prices cannot be raised without limitation and I am guessing that this cap would leave the retaillers still well out of pocket: Hence the $100 incentive to move on. There is a good chance that those companies will not survive so I would difinitely look elsewhere for my supplier.

The use of gas is contentious. It is a carbon emitting fossil fuel. To say that the small limited use of domestic gas is inconsequential in the big scheme of things is sympathetic to the climate denialist line that Australia is a small player in the world of emissions ( despite being the largest emitter per capita). Before I am accused of being purist, I wneed to declare, again, that we have gas for our cooktop and in sentencing I wish my use of our wood fired chimenea to be taken into consideration too: Used as an open grill (the hyperbolic section is removable) it cooks better tasting food than anything else we have at out disposable. However, it is undeniable that I am making excuses for my contirbution to CO2 emissions. When we replace the stove it will be electric: I don't know what I will do about the chiminea. :(

In the last week wholesale prices on the spot market have been up around $350/Mwhr (35c/Kwhr). Retail prices as shown in FenceFurniture's post are around 27c/kwhr. On this showing and if no easing of the market occurs (I am not sure how it can other than a slight reduction in demand during Spring, which is a way off) as contracts become renewable I can see the retail price easily going to 50c/Kwhr.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Co2 is an issue, Paul: if you have a gas heater and live in, say, Thredbo or Liaweene, then you will probably run said heater for 24 hours per day, and produce a lot of CO2.

An adequately powered wok should complete a stir-fry in less than 60 seconds. Morally, I can live with that amount of CO2.

[Bushmiller]

Here are a couple of links that confirm much of the conversations we have already had.

Government blames Coalition for energy price rises | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/government-blames-coalition-for-energy-price-rises/vi-AAY1thH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=50f1a519843641dc89cda13daae70fba)

Failure of coal leaves us stuck with gas as a very expensive transition fuel (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/failure-of-coal-leaves-us-stuck-with-gas-as-a-very-expensive-transition-fuel/ar-AAXZ09W?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=50f1a519843641dc89cda13daae70fba)

The second link refers to coal failure both from breakdowns due to ageing units and the climate. The climate and the difficulty in actually mining the coal is an interesting one. My own station has had some difficulty with this. Another weather related problem has caused a scheduled outage (we are pedanticl with our maintenance programmes) caused a very unusual extension to the outage. A large crane was in position to lift a component in through the top of the boiler and was unable to do this because of continued wet weather. A weeks delay that was not seen coming!

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Here are a couple of links that confirm much of the conversations we have already had.

Government blames Coalition for energy price rises | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/government-blames-coalition-for-energy-price-rises/vi-AAY1thH?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=50f1a519843641dc89cda13daae70fba)

Failure of coal leaves us stuck with gas as a very expensive transition fuel (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/failure-of-coal-leaves-us-stuck-with-gas-as-a-very-expensive-transition-fuel/ar-AAXZ09W?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=50f1a519843641dc89cda13daae70fba)

The second link refers to coal failure both from breakdowns due to ageing units and the climate. The climate and the difficulty in actually mining the coal is an interesting one. My own station has had some difficulty with this. Another weather related problem has caused a scheduled outage (we are pedanticl with our maintenance programmes) caused a very unusual extension to the outage. A large crane was in position to lift a component in through the top of the boiler and was unable to do this because of continued wet weather. A weeks delay that was not seen coming!

Regards
Paul

There is another factor at play in all this and that is solar production on the East Coast and possibly further afield is down hugely and this will obviously drive up grid usage during this winter.

[ajw]

It's not costing us 4 times the amount to dig up coal or extract gas, but because of international pricing, the price is jumping. So somebody somewhere in this process is making some super profits.

ajw

[woodPixel]

50 more of these farms would be a good start!

MacIntyre Wind Precinct'''s construction begins, soon to be Australia'''s largest wind farm - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-06-03/macintyre-wind-precinct-construction-begins/101119756)

[GraemeCook]

50 more of these farms would be a good start! ...

But I want to switch my lights on when it gets dark.

[Glider]

To me variable supply charges looks to be nothing more than very very tricky marketing. Or should I just say an outright lie?

I think the usage charge is the "Welcome, come on in!" and the supply charge is "Here's the bill."

Caveat emptor.

mick

[havabeer69]

It's not costing us 4 times the amount to dig up coal or extract gas, but because of international pricing, the price is jumping. So somebody somewhere in this process is making some super profits.

ajw


yep, coal mines don't want to sell to the coal fired power stations as they can get FAR better money exporting it.

coal fired power stations have to roll back production to conserve coal, this creates demand... this drives prices up. the other side to that is that coal mines will sell to a power station but the cost is ALOT higher, so the power station either sells at a higher price (passed on to customers) or shuts down as they can't stay viable.

[ajw]

I would have thought that the power generators had fixed supply contracts with coal mines, so that they were guaranteed supply at a known price. The mines shouldn't be able to simply withhold confirmed/contracted orders just so they can sell to a higher bidder. I know it's likely to be much more complicated than that, but it needs to get sorted out somehow. If retail prices move to 50 cents kWh there will be a lot of people struggling to pay the bills. The flow-on effects through the economy of significantly higher power and gas prices will cause another spike in inflation. The outlook is quite scary for a lot of people, I'd imagine.

ajw

[russ57]

I know amber (my retailer) has insurance to cover their obligations to not exceed the default offer price and i would guess most do. But the premiums will no doubt be heading north at the next renewal.
Perhaps some retailers (and generators) were betting that wasn’t required. (higher profits higher risk).
But surprising never the less.

[GraemeCook]

It is starting to sound like a re-run of the California electricity crisis of 20 years ago.

And for pretty much the same reasons.

[Close a dirty fossil fuel power station and the Greens are very happy, but an energy supply deficiency is created. No alternatives available so market forces push power prices up alarmingly, and the same companies make a killing wth their remaining dirty power stations. If the supply gap starts to narrow, then be very public spirited and close another dirty power station. Public Relations will massage the media!]

[yvan]

Co2 is an issue, Paul: if you have a gas heater and live in, say, Thredbo or Liaweene, then you will probably run said heater for 24 hours per day, and produce a lot of CO2.

An adequately powered wok should complete a stir-fry in less than 60 seconds. Morally, I can live with that amount of CO2.

Graeme,

You may be interested in one of these mushroom burners:

12 Jet Mushroom Burner - LP Gas - Auscrown (https://www.auscrown.com.au/products/product/mushroom-burner-lp-gas-a12lp)

I have got one of these and am in the process of building a cart on wheels to use it outdoors. I can't tell how hot it will get as I haven't fired it yet .

Cheers,
Yvan

[GraemeCook]

Graeme,

You may be interested in one of these mushroom burners:

12 Jet Mushroom Burner - LP Gas - Auscrown (https://www.auscrown.com.au/products/product/mushroom-burner-lp-gas-a12lp)

...


Thanks, Yvan. The output of your 12 burner unit is given on page 11 of the specifications sheet as 37.5 mJ. This is a lot better than my 25 mJ, but well short of Kai Wings's 100+ mJ.

You really can taste the difference of the more mJ's, and he is thinking of changing to a 200 mJ unit. There are also legal and insurance issues in putting a commercial unit in a domestic kitchen.

[Bushmiller]

You really can taste the difference of the more mJ's, and he is thinking of changing to a 200 mJ unit. There are also legal and insurance issues in putting a commercial unit in a domestic kitchen.

Graeme

I think the commercial stoves may not cut off the gas should the flame go out. While commercial stoves have a lot more "grunt" than domestic stoves, they are normally a no-frills type affair being quite simplistic. On the stove we had the smallest burner was about the same as the largest burner on a domestic stove. Having said that, my experience of commercial stoves dates from around 2000 so some improvements may have made since that time.

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

We have to start thinking BIG, really big....

China to double wind, solar energy capacity by 2025 (https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220602-china-to-double-wind-solar-energy-capacity-by-2025)


In 2025, the annual power generation from renewable energy will reach about 3.3 trillion kilowatt-hours

TRILLION.....3.3 trillion....

Imagine if we could have used some of that Liberal Debt and built wind and solar farms?

HOOLEY DOOLEY!!!

[NeilS]

Thanks, Yvan. The output of your 12 burner unit is given on page 11 of the specifications sheet as 37.5 mJ. This is a lot better than my 25 mJ, but well short of Kai Wings's 100+ mJ.

You really can taste the difference of the more mJ's, and he is thinking of changing to a 200 mJ unit. There are also legal and insurance issues in putting a commercial unit in a domestic kitchen.

Just this week I removed two AM125 gas burners from one of my kilns... they run at 200,00btu/200MJ a piece when on full bore... I shudder to think what they would do to a stir fry!

My immediate concern with that amount of heat in a domestic kitchen is the exhaust arrangements. Any domestic kitchen exhaust fan and ducting would be fried as quickly as the stir fry...:oo:


512674


The large heavy duty SS canopies used in commercial kitchens with their equally expensive exhaust fan units and external ducting/flue arrangements are better able to cope with that level of heat.

If you do really like the idea of doing some cooking on a flame thrower at home... perhaps outside next to the barby. with the fire extinguisher close at hand...:U


PS - I'm not sure about commercial kitchen gas burners, but those gas burners of mine (see attached) have an automatic cut off should the flame go out. A kiln full of gas that suddenly ignites is a frightening prospect.

[FenceFurniture]

edit: they have one for $70, which is sort of OK on price but it does come with a hose.... Gasmate Cast Iron Ring Burner - MyDeal (https://www.mydeal.com.au/gasmate-cast-iron-ring-burner-1026515)

512562These things are ferocious! I've had one for about 15 years, and I use them when I do a soup run for which I need to make about 25 litres or more of Vege Stock. My biggest pot now is a 25 litre jobbie, but ozhunter bought my 77 litre monster a while back.

[GraemeCook]

... You really can taste the difference of the more mJ's, and he is thinking of changing to a 200 mJ unit. There are also legal and insurance issues in putting a commercial unit in a domestic kitchen. ...


Just this week I removed two AM125 gas burners from one of my kilns... they run at 200,00btu/200MJ a piece when on full bore... I shudder to think what they would do to a stir fry!

My immediate concern with that amount of heat in a domestic kitchen is the exhaust arrangements. Any domestic kitchen exhaust fan and ducting would be fried as quickly as the stir fry...:oo:


512674 ... .




Precisely; that is why I said there may be legal and insurance issues with a commercial stove or cooktop. But I cannot remember the details so I said nothing else.

Some 20-25 years ago I was at an auction and bought an almost new stainless 6-burner commercial gas stove quite cheaply, and felt very pleased with myself. We did not have a gas connection then, so I rang a gas fitter friend and asked if he could convert the stove to bottled gas and install it for me. He came round, looked at it and shook his head. He mentioned the "blast furnace heat" that it could produce and the need (and legal requirement) for adequate clearances to inflamable things. Basic problems then in my kitchen included:

Inadequate extractor,
Wooden floors,
Wooden window frames,
Pine cabinet next to stove alcove,
Pine doors on ther cabinets and drawers,
Melamine bench tops and cabinet carcases, etc.

I sold the stove quite well.

[woodPixel]

Here is a cool thing.... stretchable fabric that generates electricity!

The PDF --> https://www.ntu.edu.sg/docs/default-source/corporate-ntu/hub-news/ntu-singapore-scientists-develop-a-fabric-that-turns-body-movement-into-electricity.pdf?sfvrsn=869781be_1

A short article: New 'fabric' converts motion into electricity | NTU Singapore (https://www.ntu.edu.sg/news/detail/new-'fabric'-converts-motion-into-electricity)


As a proof of concept, the team showed that tapping on a 3-centimeter by 4-centimeter piece of the fabric generated enough power for 100 LEDs.


If simply moving and stretching produces energy, some quick thinking invents quite a few opportunities :)

[Bushmiller]

Are Nukes back on the table?

Peter Dutton hints at controversial shift towards nuclear power (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/06/peter-dutton-nuclear-power/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220607_with%20Tag)

I did take this extract from the article in particular:

"Tony Wood, who heads energy and climate policy at the Grattan Institute, says nuclear energy could make a contribution to Australia’s transition from fossil fuels if public concerns could be overcome and the technology became economically viable."

I don' think these aspects can be stated enough, plus it may be ten years before the first MW is generated: No quick fix here amongst all the other isues.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

Looking overall at this period in time and our attempts to deal with climate change I think in 50 years time people will look back and wonder where some of the looney ideas came from and why they were seriously considered.

[woodPixel]

Are Nukes back on the table?

Peter Dutton hints at controversial shift towards nuclear power (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/06/peter-dutton-nuclear-power/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220607_with%20Tag)

I did take this extract from the article in particular:

"Tony Wood, who heads energy and climate policy at the Grattan Institute, says nuclear energy could make a contribution to Australia’s transition from fossil fuels if public concerns could be overcome and the technology became economically viable."

Curious they talk about this one week after being SLAIN from government.

Didn't mention it previously.....

Again, the stinking remains of the Liberal party are still throwing dead cats around. They should be solidly ignored for 3 years.

I personally think nuclear is a big part of the answer, but getting everyone else to think this way is a mighty big ask. Ten years will be too late... wind/solar/hydro/sea current/thermal and storage will make it a total economic failure if it ever starts.

[NeilS]

I personally think nuclear is a big part of the answer, but getting everyone else to think this way is a mighty big ask. Ten years will be too late... wind/solar/hydro/sea current/thermal and storage will make it a total economic failure if it ever starts.

Having the largest deposit of uranium in the world up at Olympic Dam we have a big incentive to take advantage of that resource here in SA and we looked at it in detail but the economic arguments for it just don't stack up for electricity generation here in Australia.

The cost of decommissioning a NPP, let alone building it, is staggering. For example "in Slovakia, a detailed case study showed a total cost of €1.14 billion (A$1.7bn) to decommission Bohunice V1 (2 x 440 MWe) and dismantle it by 2025." Source: World Nuclear Association (https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/nuclear-wastes/decommissioning-nuclear-facilities.aspx)

[ian]

Are Nukes back on the table?

Peter Dutton hints at controversial shift towards nuclear power (thenewdaily.com.au) (https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/06/06/peter-dutton-nuclear-power/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Morning%20News%20-%2020220607_with%20Tag)

I did take this extract from the article in particular:

"Tony Wood, who heads energy and climate policy at the Grattan Institute, says nuclear energy could make a contribution to Australia’s transition from fossil fuels if public concerns could be overcome and the technology became economically viable."

I don' think these aspects can be stated enough, plus it may be ten years before the first MW is generated: No quick fix here amongst all the other isues.


Curious they talk about this one week after being SLAIN from government.

Didn't mention it previously.....

I personally think nuclear is a big part of the answer, but getting everyone else to think this way is a mighty big ask. Ten years will be too late... wind/solar/hydro/sea current/thermal and storage will make it a total economic failure if it ever starts.


Having the largest deposit of uranium in the world up at Olympic Dam we have a big incentive to take advantage of that resource here in SA and we looked at it in detail but the economic arguments for it just don't stack up for electricity generation here in Australia.
Ahh

but don't forget that in 2021, the Australian Government cancelled their contract to buy 12 French nuclear subs -- the French subs were to be reconfigured so that they are powered by diesel engines.
What does that decision (nuclear powered submarines) mean in terms of the future of nuclear power for Australia.
The current research reactor at Lucas Heights doesn't cut it.

So will Australia be supplied with highly enriched uranium to run the new [US or, more likely UK designed and constructed] subs? The basis being that highly enriched uranium allows the sub's reactors to be fuelled for life.
HOWEVER, note that supplying Australia with highly enriched uranium would seemingly violate the wording of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to which Australia is a signatory. However, I'm not sure that leasing the subs, and their uranium filled reactors, to Australia would necessarily violate the wording of the NNPT. If Australia were to only lease the nuclear subs, would the highly enriched uranium fuel still be technically under US or UK control? If that were the case, the reactors, once their cores were depleted, could be returned to the US for NNPT verification.

Alternatively, Australia might need to develop their own nuclear industry so that they can operate the planned nuclear subs independently of the US's and/or UK's nuclear industry.
That would be an argument to develop a domestic Australian nuclear power industry that does not require any rational economic evaluation.


Alternatively, Australia could return to the, now cancelled, contract to acquire eight or so French nuclear subs. Australia's decision to adopt nuclear power for their new subs would mean that the design delays associated with attempting to shoe-horn a diesel engine, and the large fuel tanks required to attain the operation range desired, into a space designed for a nuclear reactor would no longer be an issue.
Note that although the French subs need refuelling every ten (?) years, they run on low enriched uranium so don't violate the NNPT.


And if a Los Angles class or an Astute class nuclear sub were redesigned to accommodate refuelling, there is no guarantee that the design delays experienced with the French subs would not be repeated.

[woodPixel]

It would need a very special negotiator to go have a chat with France. One that can, and be willing, to hear from some rather cranky people with a legitimate grievance.

I'm pretty sure we are at the top of their $hit-list right now.

The last two posts have brought up some of the very real problems with nuclear... Implementation is long, nobody wants this beast in their back yard, it requires a level of expertise to run we simply don't have natively (??) and decommish is a pretty penny. Then there is the fuel and disposal.

If these could be solved, cool.... but ...

For the same money we could build quite a juicy renewable solution?

[Bushmiller]

We are going slightly off track here, not that this is enought to halt our conversations :) .

WP:

Your comments are right on the money and I don't see these issues being resolved in the forseeable future; Just the lead time alone is mind boggling.

"The last two posts have brought up some of the very real problems with nuclear... Implementation is long, nobody wants this beast in their back yard, it requires a level of expertise to run we simply don't have natively (??) and decommish is a pretty penny. Then there is the fuel and disposal."

Ian:

I am not really familiar with nukes in subs, although a brief look seems to indicate that some may be using uranium at a higher level of enrichment. However, this thread is about land based nukes for electricity generation and the level of enrichment for those is in the range of 4% to 7%. This is a long way from weapons grade material that is enriched at >97% and a big step in technology. While there are huge issues around nuke power before it becomes acceptable I don't see the transition to nuclear armament as being at the forefront: Arguably, a long way down the track some power hungry nutter may see an opportunity, but that could be a subject for a separate thread.

My understanding of the Lucas Heights reactor is thatit has a nominal capability of 5MW, but that is just a power rating as it is not used to generate electricity. I believe the primary use is for medial supplies and some element of research.

Regards
Paul

[Chris Parks]

As an aside and to give some insight into one operation of the Lucas Heights which is close to me, when they are transporting used material for export all the roads south of the reactor are closed to all traffic between the reactor and Port Kembla. I have been caught twice by this in the last few years and it lasts for the best part of an hour and there is no advanced warning of it happening until just before they do it.

[Bushmiller]

As an aside and to give some insight into one operation of the Lucas Heights which is close to me, when they are transporting used material for export all the roads south of the reactor are closed to all traffic between the reactor and Port Kembla. I have been caught twice by this in the last few years and it lasts for the best part of an hour and there is no advanced warning of it happening until just before they do it.

Interesting.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... The last two posts have brought up some of the very real problems with nuclear...

If these could be solved, cool.... but ...

For the same money we could build quite a juicy renewable solution?


Sorry, Woody, but you lost me.

Are you really advocating solar powered submarines?

[GraemeCook]

... The last two posts have brought up some of the very real problems with nuclear... Implementation is long, nobody wants this beast in their back yard, it requires a level of expertise to run ...


This lead time really puzzles me with respect to submarines, whether French, USA or UK. Delivery will be in 2040 or later. 20 years in the future.

Just imagine if we had ordered a bunch of submarines in 1930 to be delivered in 1950. They might have missed something significant!

[Chris Parks]

This lead time really puzzles me with respect to submarines, whether French, USA or UK. Delivery will be in 2040 or later. 20 years in the future.

Just imagine if we had ordeed a bunch of submarines in 1930 to be delivered in 1950. They might have missed something significant!

The complication in modern defenses is amazing and if another intense fight action like the Battle of Britain were to happen they would be back to flying Spitfires and Mossies within a month.

[Chris Parks]

Sorry, Woody, but you lost me.

Are you really advocating solar powered submarines?

Awesome, post of the thread!!

[woodPixel]

Sorry, Woody, but you lost me.

Are you really advocating solar powered submarines?

Not solar, but you've started me on a dangerous thought process.... renewables!

They could be run on bio-diesel, corn syrup, compressed air, or even hydro.

Since they are so deep, they are effectively IN the "dam". They could build a small turbine, let the outside water in via that turbine and generate power like that. The deeper they go, the more pressure and therefore power they have!

Once the sub is full, they could surface, let it all out, then sink to the bottom again to generate more power.

:2tsup::doh:

[havabeer69]

get a bunch of nuclear subs
when not needed for war
throw a couple of extension cords out of them and plug into the grid

island nations have been known to just ram large ships into shore and use the diesel generators on board to power the local town.

[ian]

It would need a very special negotiator to go have a chat with France. One that can, and be willing, to hear from some rather cranky people with a legitimate grievance.

I'm pretty sure we are at the top of their $hit-list right now.
The person who put Australia on the French $hit list was replaced on May 21.

There's a whole new lot in power now -- reactivating the French nuclear sub deal could be a possibility.

It will all depend on how the new lot view the previous lot's attempted wedge on nuclear power.

[Mr Brush]

The person who put Australia on the French $hit list was replaced on May 21.

There's a whole new lot in power now -- reactivating the French nuclear sub deal could be a possibility.

It will all depend on how the new lot view the previous lot's attempted wedge on nuclear power.

Not exactly Scomo's Finest Hour......:((

Now we start reading that Defence will need a bridging capability between existing Collins Class subs and the vapourware that is our nuclear (sorry, "nookular" for our US readers) submarine fleet....gosh, what a surprise !

Defence procurement in Australia is a shambles. I wouldn't trust them to go down to the local corner shop and procure me a litre of milk.

[FenceFurniture]

Not exactly Scomo's Finest Hour......:((There was something else that was? Musta missed it.

Edit: WAIT! I remember it now. His finest hour was between 10.30 and 11.30pm in May 21.

[GraemeCook]

The person who put Australia on the French $hit list was replaced on May 21.

There's a whole new lot in power now -- reactivating the French nuclear sub deal could be a possibility.

It will all depend on how the new lot view the previous lot's attempted wedge on nuclear power.

How quaint; expecting politicians of any genre to act intelligently.

[Mr Brush]

Not exactly a deterrent is it? Just telling the enemy "You better watch it - in 20 years we're going to have the most amazing shiny nuclear subs, so back off" :rolleyes:

[Bushmiller]

Gentlemen

I am loathe to issue any restrictions on this thread, particularly as I started it and more importantly because I see electricity generation as one of the crucial issues of the future, but, we need to keep the specific political comment to a minium other than factual documentation of policy or the lack of it. I know it is extremely difficult to separate the politics and the science here and given a free reign I would probably be the worst offender. However, there has been no intervention in any way whatsoever by the moderators on this thread. I am grateful for that, because the Forum rules are "No politics" and I would like to keep the thread as apolitical as possible.

Most contributors here have acknowledged that previous governments could have and should have done more and did not. We really need to focus on the remedys and see if the new government can step up to the task. I take on board that all politicians of all persuasions can be slippery. We need to give them a chance to do the right thing and then lay into them if they fall short on the task.

So, what is the right thing? The latest comments that the coal fired stations need to get back on line and the gas companies need to assure continued supply is a defining acknowledgement that we cannot do without either for the moment. Here on this thread we knew that. The chorous of the market finding the solution is rubbish. The problem is that market is primarily privatisied and even the government stations are obliged under the competitive market regulations to act as if they were private companies. The problem is that the industry has been privatised and their focus is the bottom line: There is no going back from this position so the only option I see for the moment is for the government to pursue research into solutions. I heard even today of restoring coal and gas fired power so the renemables could be further developed. They still don't understand the issue. The issue is the night and other "sunless" hours. Also "windless" hours and maybe down the track "waterless" hours should drought strike again (it will).

The effect of more renewables though the day without that generation channeled into storage would mean the coal and gas fired units either would not generate at all or would have to go to their absolute minimum loads and probably not only run uneconomically but more likely at a huge loss. The problem there is they are needed for the time when the renewables cannot deliver. It may be that generation through the night is insufficient for them to be viable. If they close down prematurely because they are unviable the country has a big problem.

Storage is the crucial issue that must be solved and that needs to happen sooner rather than later: Everything hangs on it. More renewables before storage is solved will actually only exacerbate the problem.

Regards
Paul

[ian]

Storage is the crucial issue that must be solved and that needs to happen sooner rather than later: Everything hangs on it. More renewables before storage is solved will actually only exacerbate the problem.
:whs:

[ian]

As an aside and to give some insight into one operation of the Lucas Heights which is close to me, when they are transporting used material for export all the roads south of the reactor are closed to all traffic between the reactor and Port Kembla. I have been caught twice by this in the last few years and it lasts for the best part of an hour and there is no advanced warning of it happening until just before they do it.
Chris
You do realise that the unannounced road closures around Lucas Heights have nothing to do about the safety or otherwise of the reactor at Lucas Heights?
Their purpose is to make it difficult -- if not impossible -- for anti-nuclear protesters to disrupt the shipment of the nuclear waste.

[Chris Parks]

The reason becomes unimportant when I am stuck in the middle of it late at night. The root reason is they are moving export material and everything revolves around that.

[Mr Brush]

Meanwhile, back in the real world...

Snowy Hydro will not produce power until end of the decade, adding more pain to energy market woes - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-10/snowy-hydro-delays-add-to-gas-crisis-for-new-government/101142062)

Having worked briefly on Snowy 2.0 in the early stages, I'm not surprised it is running late. The project is a shambles IMHO - consortium lead by a large offshore entity. Want to place bets on how far over budget it will end up?

It's basically a big water-based battery, but you get the feeling that other storage technologies (e.g. Tesla megabatteries) could be deployed faster and cheaper?

[Bushmiller]

Meanwhile, back in the real world...

Snowy Hydro will not produce power until end of the decade, adding more pain to energy market woes - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-10/snowy-hydro-delays-add-to-gas-crisis-for-new-government/101142062)

Having worked briefly on Snowy 2.0 in the early stages, I'm not surprised it is running late. The project is a shambles IMHO - consortium lead by a large offshore entity. Want to place bets on how far over budget it will end up?

It's basically a big water-based battery, but you get the feeling that other storage technologies (e.g. Tesla megabatteries) could be deployed faster and cheaper?

Mr B

You are right in that it is a large "battery." My concern is that the system has been talked up and the "pumped" aspect has been overstated. The time taken to complete the project and the probable blowout of the budget just rub salt into the wound. The main proponent of the Snowy 2.0 scheme was the same person that saddled us with the NBN. I am stuggling to find any grounds for confidence. I too was astounded at how little progress had been made.

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

... Snowy 2.0 ... is basically a big water-based battery, but you get the feeling that other storage technologies (e.g. Tesla megabatteries) could be deployed faster and cheaper?

Good analogy - pumped hydro is just a great big water based battery.

It is certainly true that abattery system could be installed quicker than Snowy 2.0 - but whether it would be cheaper is, at best, very debatable. I have just run the numbers on a Tesla Powerwall installation - the cost of storing power in terms of $'s per kilowatt hour is comparable with the current retail prices of electricity.

[Mr Brush]

That's the problem with long term projects; competing technologies can advance in the same timescale to make the original proposal uncompetitive. Lots of incremental improvements to battery metallurgy/chemistry and energy density are happening right now. I have 5kW solar on the roof, but don't expect home storage batteries to be cost effective (for me) for at least another couple of years.

Re. NBN, since I have worked in the field of fibre optics for about 40 years now, I can confidently tell you that just about everyone working in the technology thought that Malcolm's idea was utterly stupid (...."but he invented the internet !!"). If they had fibre all the way to the premises, bandwidth could then scale almost indefinitely as demand went up. Current capacity of a single trunk fibre pair (Tx/Rx) using DWDM technology is 96 x 400Gb/s.:oo:......so let's put a piece of crappy old copper on the end of it? About the time Malcolm put his kibosh on the NBN, I predicted that it would have a useful service life shorter than the time it took to build it. Thanks to the advent of 5G and Starlink (which I have), even that estimate might prove optimistic.

[FenceFurniture]

Tesla Power Walls etc have a limited life (15 years??). Snowy Hydro 2.0 should have at least 50 years, based on the original still going strong after 60 years. So on the assumption that those numbers are reasonable, you get 3-4 times the life out of Snowy Hydro compared to a Power Wall. (actually, 15 years sounds like a helluva lot for a bunch of the same cells that are in my Makita & Festool cordless tools....that don't last much more than 5 years, with much, much less frequent charging than a Power Wall gets).

[GraemeCook]

... compared to a Power Wall. (actually, 15 years sounds like a helluva lot for a bunch of the same cells that are in my Makita & Festool cordless tools....that don't last much more than 5 years, with much, much less frequent charging than a Power Wall gets).

But your Makita and Festool toys do not have a built in refrigerator to keep things cool during charging.

[FenceFurniture]

But your Makita and Festool toys do not have a built in refrigerator to keep things cool during charging.Yeah they do...this is Katoomba....as cool as Hobart :;

[ian]

But your Makita and Festool toys do not have a built in refrigerator to keep things cool during charging.
Funny, my Festool batteries have a cooling fan built into the charger.

If Tesla's "promise" that their Power wall battery has a 15 years life, is based on a similar warranty as Tesla applies to its cars, the 15 year life means that after 15 years, the Power wall battery has not degraded by more than about 60% of it's original capacity.

For comparison, Snowy-2 should still be producing near 100% of its rated capacity after 20 years.
And near 98% of its rated capacity at 100 years.

To my way of thinking, Snowy-2 won't be a dud.
There is just not enough lithium around to go close to fully backing up a renewable grid for the world.


However, thermal storage linked to IR "photocells" are showing efficiencies over 40% -- the best solar cells are under 30% efficiency.
A thermal "battery" can be built out of dirt -- well graphite, which is a similar price to dirt -- and the IR radiation converted to electricity using a photocell.

[Bushmiller]

'I don't think pumped hydro is the sole answer, but it may be a start amongst a dearth of solutions: The main issue is the suitability of sites and the long time before becoming operational (as we have observed with Snowy 2.0).

Qld plans second pumped hydro project (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/qld-plans-second-pumped-hydro-project/ar-AAYi5Ga?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7b7723e38f154b56b2392dfda3556a1b)

I took this from the article:

"Electricity storage is crucial for Queensland to wean itself off coal-fired generation, which provides about 70 per cent of the state's power."

Has somebody been reading this thread?

Regards
Paul

[GraemeCook]

Funny, my Festool batteries have a cooling fan built into the charger. ...

But the fan is not refrigerated!


... If Tesla's "promise" that their Power wall battery has a 15 years life, is based on a similar warranty as Tesla applies to its cars, the 15 year life means that after 15 years, the Power wall battery has not degraded by more than about 60% of it's original capacity. ...

Just had a look at the Tesla Powerwall 2 warranty for ANZ:

Nominal storage capacity is 13.5 kWh, but
Warranted initial storage capacity is 13.2 kWh,
Warranted storage capacity at 10 years is 70% (9.24 kWh) for self consumption, only,
If connected to the grid aggregate throughput is capped at 37 mWh - note mega,
Then 5 pages of legalise escape clauses!
This is better than the original Powerwall which only had a 7 year warranty.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiZ8PLQq6T4AhXH4DgGHVL6B-sQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tesla.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fpdfs%2Fpowerwall%2FPowerwall_2_AC_Warranty_AUS-NZ_1-0.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3hgM82QsebsYQpCKWI470I

But in 10 years the batteries will probably have been superceded technologically. Ten years ago we mainly had NiMH and NiCd - who knows the future?

And Li-Ion batteries in tools seem to retain their charge capacity very well for about 7 or 8 years, and then they enter the death spiral and die quite quickly. Will tesla's do the same?

[BobL]

Funny, my Festool batteries have a cooling fan built into the charger.

If Tesla's "promise" that their Power wall battery has a 15 years life, is based on a similar warranty as Tesla applies to its cars, the 15 year life means that after 15 years, the Power wall battery has not degraded by more than about 60% of it's original capacity.

For comparison, Snowy-2 should still be producing near 100% of its rated capacity after 20 years.
And near 98% of its rated capacity at 100 years.

To my way of thinking, Snowy-2 won't be a dud.
There is just not enough lithium around to go close to fully backing up a renewable grid for the world.



Not Quite, All dams silt up - some are faster than others - the sorts of numbers thrown around are about 0.5% per year so unless active de-siltation programs (ie expensive) are enacted after 50 years the capacity will be around 78%

Siltation depends on a bunch of factors and one of the biggest is the size and variation in precipitation. Give that climate change is driving us to much greater variations than in the past siltation of all ams is going to increase.

[AlexS]

I don't know of any dams in NSW that have been desilted - as BobL says, it would be an expensive process. I do know of one that was abandoned as it silted up very quickly. Note that most of the silting occurs in the top reaches of the storage, and small dams fill up more, as a percentage, than large ones. I don't know the numbers for the Snowy dams.
I'd expect that because most of the inflow to the Snowy storages is from snowmelt, there is relatively little silt inflow compared with dams that are filled by storm runoff. Of course, with climate change, the nature of inflows to the Snowy storages may change.

[woodPixel]

Self-charging battery generates electricity from moisture in the air - ABC News (https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-06-09/self-charging-battery-generates-electricity-from-moisture/101132856)

[Bushmiller]

I have been a little alarmed at public comment on the behaviour of coal fired stations with regard to maintenance. We have to remember in the first instance that they are commercial operations that have to provide a profit for their owners and shareholders: They are not a benevolent society and they are at the hands of economic pitfalls as much as anybody. They certainly do not plan to fail, although the big danger is that they reach a point where there is no economic sense in ploughing good monay after bad. It is true that the older stations are more at risk than the newer stations, of which the newest is about fifteen years old.

However, to give one example, I saw that AGL has a number of units offline. One is at Loyang where it was on a scheduled outage that has extended because there has been difficulty sourcing some generator parts. Bayswater has three of it's four units out of service, which sounds badly planned, but not so much when the reasons are examined. One unit is on a scheduled outage for maintenance, a second unit was taken offline for a tube leak (tube leaks are the bane of boiler operation, affict everybody and are largely unpredictable) and the third unit has some coal plant issue that requires the unit offline (I don't know the detail there). At a time like this no power station wishes to be offline as for so long they have operated making minimal profits. The combination of these four units alone is around 2500MW. At an average of $350/MWhr ($875,000 per hour) I am quite sure they would be online ifthey possibly could be. They are losing a potential of $21 million dollars per day!

I took an average of $350 off the top of my head. That may be a reasonable guess if these plants were in service. Right now the averages, from the AEMO dashboard (https://aemo.com.au/Energy-systems/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-NEM/Data-Dashboard-NEM), are considerably in excess of that.

I just wished to put things in perspective rather than have people totally believing the ill considered statements that are flung out pandering to sensationalism. It is true to say that this situation is pushing up prices on the spot market.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

An interesting article describing how we have allowed the gas crisis to develop

'Stupid' gas policies led to energy crisis in eastern states, say former premiers (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/stupid-gas-policies-led-to-energy-crisis-in-eastern-states-say-former-premiers/ar-AAYkBKk?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=d3f5a5eef65840718c0bf41538307fc6)

The "hillbilly" WA does not appear to have this problem.

Regards
Paul

[Bushmiller]

A little bit of H2 development in SA.

How the planned 'hydrogen hub' in SA could help Australia's gas crisis | Watch (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/how-the-planned-hydrogen-hub-in-sa-could-help-australia-s-gas-crisis/vi-AAYmg2S?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d0fcd4a6352a49acbd04b9a47e009280&category=foryou)

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

A bloke on Reddit, in Victoria, received this unpleasant bit of an update yesterday.....

Seems we are not the only place discussing this :oo::q:U

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[GraemeCook]

I have been a little alarmed at public comment on the behaviour of coal fired stations with regard to maintenance. We have to remember in the first instance that they are commercial operations that have to provide a profit for their owners and shareholders: They are not a benevolent society ...

Absolutely true, Paul, but sometimes I think your heart is too pure to analyse the commercial world objectively. I will put on my economists hat and "re-analyse" the rest of your post.

First and key is that the power companies are in the business of making money, not making electricity - the latter is just a step in the process - and they want to maximise that money. Next we must look at pricing, the intercept of supply and demand.

Demand for electricity is inelastic in economic terms. This means that in the short term people will not change their demand in responses to price changes. If the price of electricity doubles tomorrow, you will still turn on the lights, watch TV, log onto the Forum, etc; you might intend to turn down the heat pump by a degree or two, but will probably soon revert to your prefered comfort level. You might think about more insulation. Most people will do the same and the demand will not change very much with the price rise. Demand for electricity is inelastic.

Supply is by an oligopoly - a very small number of electricity producers - most of whom have more than one plant. Take one plant or even one production line out of the equation - shut it down - and you immediately have a fixed demand chasing a smaller supply and prices will rise. That closed plant will not make money, but the company will make more money at its other plants that may more than offset the losses from the closed plant. Next, respond to the publicity about dirty coal and close another plant and put your public relations staff in overdrive. "We have closed two dirty coal fired plants, arn't we good?" The extra dollars roll in!

Credibility; think I am exagerating? Then read what happened in the electricity industry in California 20 years ago.

Moral. The power companies are in the business of making money, not making electricity. All is fair in love and war, and in the utilities market.

[Bushmiller]

Graeme

I was speaking very much from the perspective of our plant at Millmerran (we also have a 50% share in two units at Callide) and while I accept that supply and demand are cagey sleeping partners (the story of the Sybilline books (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sibylline_Books) comes to mind) I believe that the generators mainly are keen to be online: Possibly the naieve side of my nature is surfacing there.

I spoke a few moments ago to one of my work colleagues and he told me the average price for the month so far is just under $600/MWhr (60 cents/Kwhr)! That means even charging the money WP has posted above, companies such as that are likely still going to go bust.

I think I am on the record here somewhere with a few statements such as these:

1. It was a big mistake for the government electricity utilities to sell off their interests for the sake of a quick monetary gain. We are now all, literally, paying the price. It is also irreversible.
2. The state owned electricity commisions were formed back in the 50s with the sole concept of ensuring "continuity of supply."
3. "Continuity of Supply," as the the prime concern, went out the back door with privatisation and the competitive market.
4. Once the competitive market was introduced there were only three issues; Price, Price and Price. I first heard that statement around 1996.

When we talk at my workplace, about events coinciding we often refer to the holes in Swiss cheese lining up. The current situation is a combination of unfortunate events that have all lined up. The Russo-Ukrainian war (I call it a war; Anything else is too stupid to contemplate), the consequent high demand and price for gas overseas (it was always going to be there, but arguably not quite so intense as it currently is), the succession of coal fired plants out of service for unforseeable events, the difficulties some coal fired plants have with coal supplies because of unprecedented wet weather for this time of year, the increased demand for electricity courtesy of a colder and early onset winter and reduced supply of renewables because of unusually cloudy days associated with the wet weather.

Add all this up and you have the recipe for high prices at best and potential disaster at worst.

You have brought out the pessimist in me, which was previously in denial being deeply hidden.:(

Regards
Paul

[woodPixel]

Its across all energy.

The holes in the swiss cheese have lined up on many parts of the market :)

The yanks are having a whinge about "$5 gas".... poor princesses.

I just paid $2.25 today. That's USD$1.86 a litre. It filled 1/3rd of my tank for $50....

Gasoline Prices Reach $5 a Gallon Nationwide for the First Time - WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/gasoline-prices-reach-5-a-gallon-nationwide-for-the-first-time-11654910506)

Apparently it has gone past $6.43 in California over the weekend. (AUD$2.39/L).

It may indicate the pain ahead for us? (plus the petrol tax reduction ends soon??) I'd say to fill those cars up tomorrow lads and learn how to NOT use the accelerator :U



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1 US gallon = 3.7854
AUD is .7100